Claims

Factual · Other · Political

“Trump already is taking steps in that direction, though the price is too high.”

Tyler Cowen, interviewee · 4 March 2026 · Forecast 2050 - Tyler Cowen Transcript (Finn Murphy Substack)

The Trump administration is already taking steps toward selling or pricing immigration access, though at too high a price.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2026-03-04. The price being 'too high' is Cowen's opinion and is not tested. True: by March 2026 the Trump administration had announced or put in place a program that grants immigration status or residency for payment (e.g. the 'Gold Card' visa at about $1 million or more, or a similar paid route). Mostly true: such a program had been formally proposed by executive order or official announcement but was not yet working. Mixed: only steps that were partly toward paid access (e.g. large fee increases for existing visas, such as the $100,000 H-1B fee) without a dedicated paid route. Mostly false: only campaign statements or informal remarks, with no official action. False: no administration action toward paid immigration access by that date.

Evidence

1. The Gold Card The White House · 19 September 2025

   “To advance that policy, I hereby announce the Gold Card, a visa program overseen by the Secretary of Commerce that will facilitate the entry of aliens who have demonstrated their ability and desire to advance the interests of the United States by voluntarily providing a significant financial gift to the Nation.”

2. Trump launches $1m ‘gold card’ visa scheme amid immigration crackdown The Irish Times (Guardian content) · 11 December 2025

   “has launched a new programme that will allow wealthy foreign individuals to buy a US “golden visa” for $1 million (€851,000)”

3. Gold Card update—Key milestone reached for Trump admin's new visa program Newsweek · 20 November 2025

   “The Gold Card program is not yet open, and USCIS and the Commerce Department are expected to issue additional guidance in the coming weeks as they work toward a planned December 18 launch.”

Reasoning

E1 is the September 2025 White House presidential action. It announced the Gold Card, a visa program for foreigners who make "a significant financial gift" to the United States. E3 reported the program was not yet open in November 2025, with a launch planned for December 18. E2 reported in December 2025 that the administration had launched the program, letting wealthy foreigners buy a US visa for $1 million. So a paid route to immigration status had been announced and put in place before March 2026, which meets the criteria for true. Whether the price is too high is Cowen's opinion and was not tested.

Cite this claim

Tyler Cowen, “The Trump administration is already taking steps toward selling or pricing immigration access, though at too high a price.” (said 4 March 2026). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_2aee7bdde91a, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_2aee7bdde91a