| Mixed |
Marc Andreessen | Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
Richard Nixon created a project in 1972 called Project Independence, and proposed building 1,000 new US nuclear reactors.
Marc Andreessen · Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Marc Andreessen | Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
In the research literature, IQ is typically linked to outcomes with a correlation of about 0.4 to 0.5.
Marc Andreessen · Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
Science and research methods |
| Mixed |
Marc Andreessen | Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
AI development has a critical mass basically in two places in the world, the United States and China.
Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mixed |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
Andreessen said he was pretty confident that within roughly two years of June 2023, AI systems' limited persistent memory across sessions would be a solved problem.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mixed |
Marc Andreessen | Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
Hundreds of studies' conclusions on the benefits of intelligence all correlate with fluid intelligence, the ability to rapidly assimilate knowledge and use it to solve problems.
Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
6 Apr 2023 |
MIRI ran a Visible Thoughts Project that did not get enough funding or personnel and was progressing too slowly.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 6 Apr 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Satya Nadella | Factual |
22 Mar 2023 |
On 2023-03-22, Satya Nadella said GitHub Copilot is the first at-scale developer tool, and that "we" were going further that day, bringing Copilot past the editor into every aspect of the developer experience.
Satya Nadella · Factual · 22 Mar 2023 |
Technology |
| Mixed |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
Feb 2023 |
ChatGPT is not very good at long multiplication unless given the right instructions, in which case it can do it.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · Feb 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mixed |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
3 Jan 2023 |
Tech-related stocks, as long-duration assets, are hit by rising interest rates more than shorter-duration assets.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 3 Jan 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Jeremy Grantham | Factual |
Jan 2023 |
Administrations aim to achieve this objective, and to do so they stimulate the economy 12 to 18 months earlier because the economy is large, complicated and has plenty of inertia.
Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mixed |
Jeremy Grantham | Factual |
Jan 2023 |
In 1974 the US market turned up, after a 62% real decline over two years, exactly as the first Fed rate cut took place.
Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2023 |
A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
2023 |
When a population is divided by any demographic variable, such as race, class, sex, ethnic group or religion, the group means are never the same.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 2023 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
2023 |
Binary options on financial instruments proved of little economic value and are not considered an investment in the U.S. and the European Union.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
2023 |
Whether rationality and intelligence are dissociable in a human population is an unresolved controversy in the cognitive psychology literature.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 2023 |
Science and research methods |
| Mixed |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
2023 |
A lot of artificial intelligence has been deployed toward dubious goals such as propaganda, disinformation, phishing scams and manipulating people.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mixed |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
6 Nov 2022 |
In a typical short and shallow recession the S&P 500 usually falls by at least 30%.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
28 Oct 2022 |
Until now there was an insolvency problem but no liquidity problem to trigger it, because interest rates were so low.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Dario Amodei | Factual |
13 Oct 2022 |
DeepSeek was not substantially more resource-constrained than US AI companies, and export controls were not the main factor causing its innovation.
Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mixed |
Bill Ackman | Factual |
31 Jul 2022 |
The Pershing Square Foundation is not involved in this case but has supported organizations working to stop human trafficking and image-based abuse.
Bill Ackman · Factual · 31 Jul 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Nate Silver | Factual |
6 Jun 2022 |
Senator Susan Collins voted against Trump's position about one-third of the time, including voting to impeach him, and has voted with Biden about one-third of the time.
Nate Silver · Factual · 6 Jun 2022 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mixed |
Nate Silver | Factual |
27 May 2022 |
Forgiving all student loan debt is quite unpopular with the public in polls.
Nate Silver · Factual · 27 May 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Mark Zuckerberg | Factual |
24 Mar 2022 |
A lot of research shows that people's social, economic and other opportunities are generally pretty anchored to where they physically are.
Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
27 Jan 2022 |
Batteries will probably not be the limiting factor in Cybertruck production.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Daniela Amodei | Factual |
2022 |
Members of Anthropic's founding group had previously done a lot of safety research together at different organizations.
Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Daniela Amodei | Factual |
2022 |
Other researchers and engineers have been using Anthropic's released interpretability tools and watching its videos.
Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 |
Science and research methods |
| Mixed |
Bill Ackman | Factual |
2022 |
Most of Pershing Square's portfolio companies use their free cash flow to repurchase their own shares.
Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Daniela Amodei | Factual |
2022 |
Anthropic's internal scientists red-team its models by asking them questions to find unwanted behaviors.
Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mixed |
Bill Ackman | Promise |
2022 |
If the SEC approves the subscription warrant listing rule and declares SPARC's registration statement effective, Pershing Square intends to distribute SPARs to PSTH shareholders and warrant holders in 2022.
Bill Ackman · Promise · 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Bill Ackman | Factual |
2022 |
Day One Investors multiplied their equity investment by 18 times versus six times for a zero-fee S&P 500 index fund.
Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
Nov 2021 |
It took about seventeen centuries from the 'eye of the needle' passage in Matthew 19:24 to the conception of organized communism and theories of social equality.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
Nov 2021 |
Christianity was the vehicle by which separation of church and state was accomplished.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
Nov 2021 |
Europe is neither a continent, a language group nor a race, since over 100 million EU citizens are olive-skinned and hardly distinguishable from other Mediterraneans.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed |
Mark Zuckerberg | Factual |
28 Oct 2021 |
Zuckerberg studied Classics, and the word "meta" comes from the Greek word meaning "beyond".
Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Bill Ackman | Promise |
19 Aug 2021 |
PSTH shareholders will receive $20 per share in cash and one SPARC warrant per share owned, following the cash return.
Bill Ackman · Promise · 19 Aug 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Ørsted | Factual |
2 Jun 2021 |
Ørsted has been named the world's most sustainable energy company three years in a row.
Ørsted · Factual · 2 Jun 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Elon Musk | Promise |
30 Mar 2021 |
Elon Musk is donating $20M to Cameron County schools and $10M to the City of Brownsville for downtown revitalization, with details to follow the next week.
Elon Musk · Promise · 30 Mar 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Balaji Srinivasan | Factual |
25 Mar 2021 |
The big media companies are basically nepotistic endeavors, passed down from father to son.
Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 25 Mar 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction |
25 Mar 2021 |
He said he feared that, if vaccines were rolled out and enough Americans took them, by 2023 or 2024 people would be spoiling for a fight with China as the one legitimated enemy.
Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 |
Other global risks |
| Mixed |
Elon Musk | Promise |
6 Mar 2021 |
Tesla is doubling the FSD Beta program size with software version 8.2 and will probably expand it about tenfold with version 8.3.
Elon Musk · Promise · 6 Mar 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Scott Alexander | Factual |
14 Feb 2021 |
The NYT's original pitch was interest in how Scott Alexander warned early about the coronavirus pandemic and urged mask-wearing before it was standard advice.
Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Feb 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Scott Alexander | Factual |
14 Feb 2021 |
In early 2020, Scott Alexander learned the New York Times wanted to write an article about him.
Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Feb 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Scott Alexander | Factual |
14 Feb 2021 |
Scott Alexander wrote a 30,000-word condemnation of one of the right-wing figures named in the article on his blog a few years ago.
Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Feb 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Bill Gates | Prediction |
Feb 2021 |
New COVID-19 tests, treatments and vaccines will soon begin to bend the pandemic curve substantially.
Bill Gates · Prediction · Feb 2021 |
Biosecurity |
| Mixed |
Bill Gates | Factual |
Feb 2021 |
Foundation partners have applied lessons from earlier foundation-backed vaccine work to developing COVID-19 vaccines.
Bill Gates · Factual · Feb 2021 |
Biosecurity |
| Mixed |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
27 Jan 2021 |
Long-range trucking with batteries is feasible.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 |
Technology |
| Mixed |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
15 Dec 2020 |
Big businesses have generally done very well, with travel and entertainment mentioned in a way the quote leaves unclear, though they still have difficulties.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 15 Dec 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
16 Nov 2020 |
Widespread Covid vaccinations that will end the pandemic in the US are only a few months away from November 2020.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · 16 Nov 2020 |
Biosecurity |
| Mixed |
Vinod Khosla | Factual |
6 Sep 2020 |
In his 2011 "Black Swan Thesis of Energy Transformation" Vinod Khosla called Quantumscape a "quantum-nano-thingamagitit" battery.
Vinod Khosla · Factual · 6 Sep 2020 |
Technology |
| Mixed |
Ray Kurzweil | Factual |
May 2020 |
The current method for testing the few treatments that are tried organizes a few hundred human subjects and tests them over about a year and a half, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars.
Ray Kurzweil · Factual · May 2020 |
Science and research methods |
| Mixed |
Marc Andreessen | Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
American manufacturing output is higher than ever.
Marc Andreessen · Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Marc Andreessen | Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
As of April 2020 there were not enough ventilators, negative pressure rooms and ICU beds.
Marc Andreessen · Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Other global risks |
| Mixed |
Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction |
30 Mar 2020 |
When US stimulus checks arrive, people will spend them on consumer staples, after which prices will rise.
Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 30 Mar 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Balaji Srinivasan | Factual |
29 Mar 2020 |
Vox did not accurately relay what experts were saying at the time; WHO had declared a global emergency in late January 2020, weeks before the Recode handshake piece.
Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 29 Mar 2020 |
Other |
| Mixed |
Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction |
13 Mar 2020 |
Testing may need to become extremely routine, effectively mainstreaming genomics.
Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 |
Biosecurity |
| Mixed |
Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction |
13 Mar 2020 |
Srinivasan said he thought China would build a nationwide system that constantly sequences and tests its population, then quarantines and vaccinates areas where a virus is rising.
Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 |
Biosecurity |
| Mixed |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
25 Dec 2019 |
During 2019 overwhelming DNA evidence emerged that Southern Levantines had DNA indistinguishable from that of Imperial Romans.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 25 Dec 2019 |
Science and research methods |
| Mixed |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
27 Nov 2019 |
As of 27 November 2019, Ethereum is down 90% from its peak and close to its 2018 low.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 27 Nov 2019 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Gary Marcus | Factual |
14 Nov 2019 |
AI currently lacks a way of building reusable skills.
Gary Marcus · Factual · 14 Nov 2019 |
AI capabilities |
| Mixed |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
6 Nov 2019 |
As of November 2019, no application of blockchain, defined as a public, decentralized, permission-less, trustless ledger, works or is widely used despite billions spent on it over a decade.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2019 |
Technology |
| Mixed |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
16 Aug 2019 |
The People's Bank of China did not push the yuan down in August 2019.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 16 Aug 2019 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Tyler Cowen | Factual |
18 Jul 2019 |
Health care aside, the deadweight loss in question is not that large.
Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Tyler Cowen | Factual |
18 Jul 2019 |
On average, people are more likely to defraud others when not working within a large organized business.
Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Tyler Cowen | Factual |
18 Jul 2019 |
Tyler Cowen said he thinks there is some good evidence that social media are making a significant subset of teenage girls more miserable.
Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 |
Technology |
| Mixed |
Tyler Cowen | Factual |
18 Jul 2019 |
Travel experienced about 40 years of stagnation, followed by more advances in the last 5 years.
Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 |
Technology |
| Mixed |
Sam Altman | Factual |
16 Feb 2019 |
There has been a massive surge in the availability of cheap seed funding for startups.
Sam Altman · Factual · 16 Feb 2019 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Nouriel Roubini | Prediction |
15 Oct 2018 |
Now that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have plummeted from 2017's valuations, the techno-utopian mystique of distributed-ledger technologies should be next.
Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 15 Oct 2018 |
Technology |
| Mixed |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
9 Oct 2018 |
Steven Pinker has consulted with Obama's speechwriters and has met heads of state such as Justin Trudeau.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 9 Oct 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
9 Oct 2018 |
Rates of violence, war, rape and child abuse have come down over time.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 9 Oct 2018 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
7 Sep 2018 |
Humans can definitely travel to the Moon and Mars.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 7 Sep 2018 |
Technology |
| Mixed |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
17 May 2018 |
These factors should enable ADP to achieve at least about $6.25 of EPS in fiscal year 2020, nearly 25% above management's September 2017 guidance.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · 17 May 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
22 Mar 2018 |
Studies show that people evaluating data from a politically neutral hypothetical experiment, such as a skin cream's efficacy, interpret the numbers reasonably well.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 22 Mar 2018 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
22 Mar 2018 |
Most of "our" pollution, as distinct from pollution in the developing world, cannot be exported because it is involved in power generation, home heating and similar activities.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 22 Mar 2018 |
Other global risks |
| Mixed |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
28 Feb 2018 |
AlphaZero surpassed human Go knowledge in less than a day starting from scratch, without human games, theories or Go-specific code beyond what chess used.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 28 Feb 2018 |
AI capabilities |
| Mixed |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
15 Feb 2018 |
The culture wars will continue with both sides scoring own-goals, victory going to whichever side first gets its supporters to shut up.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
15 Feb 2018 |
Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 |
Other |
| Mixed |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
1 Feb 2018 |
24 percent of the population has been diagnosed with some form of mental illness.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
1 Feb 2018 |
The top 0.2 percent of the population has a net worth about equal to that of the bottom 90 percent combined.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Marc Andreessen | Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Andreessen Horowitz's portfolio companies are getting more assertive about entering markets that earlier founders may not have been willing to enter.
Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
2018 |
Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed |
Rodney Brooks | Factual |
7 Sep 2017 |
In July 1995 a CMU minivan, with no hands on the wheel or feet on pedals, drove coast to coast across the US on public roads.
Rodney Brooks · Factual · 7 Sep 2017 |
Technology |
| Mixed |
Dario Amodei | Factual |
21 Jul 2017 |
For almost a decade before 2017, self-driving cars have existed that are 99.9% safe.
Dario Amodei · Factual · 21 Jul 2017 |
AI capabilities |
| Mixed |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
10 Jul 2017 |
Automatic transmissions used to be vastly more expensive than manual ones, though costs have since come down.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 |
Technology |
| Mixed |
Ray Kurzweil | Factual |
Mar 2017 |
In recent years Minsky lamented the 'success' of his book and had become respectful of recent gains in neural net technology.
Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2017 |
AI capabilities |
| Mixed |
Ray Kurzweil | Factual |
Mar 2017 |
For every job that was eliminated, several new ones were invented, with the work force growing from 24 million people (31 percent of the population) in 1900 to 142 million (44 percent of the population) in 2015.
Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2017 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mixed |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
27 Feb 2017 |
Buffett said Berkshire tried to time its sales of Dow Chemical stock once it rose above the conversion price, selling more aggressively as the price rose, because it did not want to own the roughly 72 million common shares.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
6 Jan 2017 |
The situation in Israel will look more worse than better at the end of 2017.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 |
Other global risks |
| Mixed |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
6 Jan 2017 |
ISIS will no longer exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 |
Other global risks |
| Mixed |
Nate Silver | Factual |
Nov 2016 |
The 2016 polling error was modest and in line with historical polling errors, yet large enough to give Trump many paths to victory.
Nate Silver · Factual · Nov 2016 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mixed |
Nate Silver | Factual |
11 Oct 2016 |
Other forecasts gave Trump even lower chances than the 20 percent in Silver's forecast with numbers like those: five or ten percent.
Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Oct 2016 |
Other |
| Mixed |
Jeremy Grantham | Factual |
2016 |
Fed chairs Yellen, Bernanke and Greenspan overtly bragged about their success in driving asset prices, particularly stocks, higher.
Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2016 |
Brexit will be very damaging for students and faculty at UK universities, which receive much EU money.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
2016 |
A vehicle cheaper than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary for Tesla because of the plan's vehicle-sharing component.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Dario Amodei | Factual |
17 Aug 2015 |
Poorly implemented services are currently a major driver of cynicism about government.
Dario Amodei · Factual · 17 Aug 2015 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mixed |
Dario Amodei | Factual |
17 Aug 2015 |
Human economic planners made the decisions that led to several East Asian economies' late-20th-century growth by pulling a few key levers such as export-led industrial policy, not by directly controlling whole economies.
Dario Amodei · Factual · 17 Aug 2015 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Dario Amodei | Factual |
17 Aug 2015 |
Smallpox was fully eliminated in the 1970s, and polio and guinea worm are nearly eradicated with fewer than 100 cases per year.
Dario Amodei · Factual · 17 Aug 2015 |
Biosecurity |
| Mixed |
Yann LeCun | Factual |
27 May 2015 |
Deep learning methods have dramatically improved the state of the art in many other domains such as drug discovery and genomics.
Yann LeCun · Factual · 27 May 2015 |
AI capabilities |
| Mixed |
Bill Gates | Factual |
2015 |
Regulations in most countries still limit digital banking, preventing innovators from entering.
Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Bill Gates | Factual |
2015 |
The last germ-game simulation in the United States was in 2001 and it did not go well.
Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 |
Biosecurity |
| Mixed |
Bill Gates | Factual |
2015 |
Traditional banks cannot afford to serve the poor because of their costs.
Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 |
Economics and markets |