Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,572 claims · page 19 of 26

2,572 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 Authentication will use a range of options (email, phone number, username, biometrics) chosen to fit each use case. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Technology
Resolved true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 China may be moving toward using AI for pervasive, all-seeing control of its population. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 Drones are going to be a very big deal. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 The concepts bundled in an ICO will be unbundled and separated out in the years to come. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 Token-based financing at a very small, individual level will take about 20 years (perhaps 10), not 5, to be realized. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 The exponential growth under discussion will top out and follow a logistic curve at some point, since no exponential can continue indefinitely. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 Many people in places like Nigeria will work in new digital blue-collar jobs, such as Mechanical Turk-type tasks. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 AI-powered surveillance cameras may result in a very low-crime society. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 The new systems under discussion will have a business model of some kind, and what are now called fees may shift to another part of the system. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Prediction 11 Apr 2018 Technology that is 100 years old will, statistically, last another 100 years. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 11 Apr 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 Migrant-type labor could eventually become software-driven via remote robots, allowing workers to earn higher wages. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 It is likely that there will be more news in the 'news-you-can-use' category, such as tutorials, which readers can check themselves by going through each line as they read it. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 He said he thinks that, in general, the countries that will win the future will be software-savvy small countries such as Estonia, Singapore and Israel, with China as the one major exception to the small-country pattern. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 Other global risks
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 Eventually, humanoid robots combined with a VR bodysuit will let people script and control a robot from around the world, maybe in 10 years, seeing through the robot's eyes and moving its arms through the bodysuit. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 Technology
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 Interesting telepresence capabilities are about 5 to 10 years away. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 Once telepresence robots improve, a country's immigration policy will effectively become its firewall, as people can 'immigrate' remotely via internet-controlled robots. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 Once artificial general intelligence capabilities exist, they will scale too fast for an economic framing to be a useful way to view the problem. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 Very powerful and smart AI systems will redesign and improve themselves unless prevented for some reason. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 No AI development will ever look like a socially agreed, undeniable fire alarm for AGI. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 Once artificial general intelligence capabilities exist, something like AlphaZero going "from 0 to 120 mph in four hours or a day" is not out of the question. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 An AI built narrowly enough to be understood will not be able to defend against arbitrary unrestrained superintelligences. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 Yudkowsky thinks AGI will be built on purpose about 10 years before it would otherwise happen by accident. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 The first artificial general intelligence will be built in a research lab specifically dedicated to building it, not arise spontaneously from an unrelated system. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 Yudkowsky said he thinks the artificial general intelligence timeline is likely to run out before humanity gets much better at solving inadequacy and systemic problems in general. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 Better anti-virus software will not give automatic defense against superintelligence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Multinationals will occasionally debate using crypto to move profits between places, then decide against it for fear of public anger. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The culture wars will continue with both sides scoring own-goals, victory going to whichever side first gets its supporters to shut up. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide between formal institutions for the rich and informal gig economies for the poor. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would remember and publicly grade these predictions sometime in 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Research failed Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Cryptocurrency will neither collapse nor take over everything by 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The subject gave an 80% probability that one Bitcoin would cost above $1,000, in a prediction with a deadline of 15 February 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 With 80% probability, by February 2023 the Paris Agreement would still be in effect, with most countries generally making a good-faith effort to comply. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other global risks
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Through 2023, there will be no obvious sign that technological unemployment is happening on a large scale. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The subject gave a 60% probability that Democrats win the US Presidency in 2020. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Global existential risks will hopefully not be a big part of the 2018-2023 period. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other global risks
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 As Obamacare collapses, health insurance will start turning into a formal institution limited to college grads with good job prospects. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio said he believes that if economies were to go down now, there would be a great deal of conflict. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 1 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects gross investments in 2018 of DKK 16-18 billion, covering offshore wind projects, the Asnæs Power Station biomass conversion and smart meter installation. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements of DKK 12-13 billion, compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 If the Hornsea 1 divestment happens in 2018, Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA including new partnerships to exceed DKK 22.5 billion. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects to farm down 50% of Hornsea 1 either in H2 2018 or in 2019. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Commercial drones will become a giant market in industries such as oil and gas and insurance. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 There is a real possibility that a flying car will not be purchasable by any US resident with enough money even by 2050 (original prediction: not before 2036). Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Hyperloop will not happen in Brooks's lifetime, i.e. not by 2050. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Autonomous drone technology is about to tip and become very widely usable. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Point-to-point transport on Earth in about an hour using a BF rocket will not happen in the author's lifetime without a major new breakthrough. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 The generally agreed 'next big thing' in AI beyond deep learning will be something already being worked on with published papers, emerging no earlier than 2023 and by 2027. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Realising the hyperloop will require many new technologies and designs, none of which existed before, for every aspect of the system. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Underground car-pallet transport at over 100mph will not become a real, viable mass-market service in the author's lifetime, only small demonstration projects. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Cities will be changed by driverless cars through special lanes, geo-fencing, altered pick-up/drop-off norms, parking regulation changes and other incremental modifications. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 No self driving car will be faced with an instance of the trolley problem until beyond 2050. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Sky Deal's autonomous consumer drones will be a very big advance in what hobbyists can do. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Flying cars will reach 0.01% of total US cars no earlier than 2042. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Claims before 2023 to be the next big thing in AI beyond deep learning will not pan out. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 There will be no commercially viable passenger-carrying hyperloop systems within the next 32 years (by 2050). Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Rodney Brooks said he thinks landing cargo on Mars by 2026 is optimistic, though it might be pushed to happen as a statement that it can be done rather than for a pressing practical reason. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Robotics, AI and ML will not produce a general intelligence that can suddenly do all the things humans or chimpanzees can do. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Entrepreneurial opportunity is more likely to be in areas people think of as cult and fringe. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 Jan 2018 In the three months after January 2018, the US economy will destroy more jobs than the World Economic Forum projected AI would destroy over the next five years. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Driverless cars will not simply replace human-driven cars one for one. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 A flying car will not be available for purchase by any US resident with enough money before 2036, and there is a real possibility this will not happen at all by 2050. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 Jan 2018 The things being described, which the speaker said would be used for drones, will become things people rely on to make their lives safer and better, and will be taken completely for granted. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 A conversational agent with long-term context that avoids repeated patterns will go from lab demo (no earlier than 2023) to widespread deployment on platforms like Google Home and Amazon Echo by 2025. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 A major city banning parking and human-driven cars from part of the city will be the starting point of a turn toward driverless cars, no earlier than 2027 and by 2031. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Two paying customers will not go on a loop around the Moon on a Falcon Heavy in the 4th quarter of 2018. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that he would not finish more than 25% of a new novel by the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would still be working at his current job at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that he would not attend the New York Solstice in 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that Robert Mueller would not indict Donald Trump during 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Donald Trump would still be US president at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Other
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Democrats would take control of the US House in the 2018 midterms. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that Reddit would not ban r/the_donald by the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Technology
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Slate Star Codex would get more hits in 2018 than in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that the first Falcon Heavy launch would not be successful. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 2018 There will not be a 'Truckpocalypse' before 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2018 If housing finance reform is successful, FNMA and FMCC common and preferred stock will likely be worth multiples of their current share prices. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 2018 Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2018 Nike's historical high-single-digit annual revenue growth rate is likely to continue. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 2018 Two or three competing companies will offer low-level space tourism by 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2018 Pershing Square expected continued acceleration in revenue growth, double-digit EPS growth and clarity on Mr. Van de Put's strategy to cause MDLZ's valuation to rise to levels approaching intrinsic value. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2018 If PAH shares traded at a valuation comparable to competitors and the company achieved analyst earnings estimates, they would be worth more than $19, nearly 75% above current levels. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 2018 He gave an 80% probability that by 2023 the Paris Agreement would still be in effect, with most countries generally making a good-faith effort to comply. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 Other global risks
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2018 Over time, QSR should be able to successfully execute additional value-creating acquisitions. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 2018 The European Union will not collapse by 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 Other
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2018 ADP's delivery on its proxy-contest commitments, together with tax reform and rising interest rates, will drive a significant increase in ADP's earnings. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction 2018 If global existential risks became a big part of 2018-2023, it would be because someone did something incredibly stupid or awful with infectious diseases. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 Other global risks
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2018 If ADP's Employer Services growth rises to ~7%+ and margins to 35% or greater, ADP would earn ~$10 of EPS by FY2022, more than double current earnings. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 5 Oct 2017 By 2029, computers will have human-level intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 5 Oct 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 5 Oct 2017 By the 2030s, humans will connect their neocortex to the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 5 Oct 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 5 Oct 2017 Humans will be able to meet the physical needs of all humans and expand their minds through technology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 5 Oct 2017 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 5 Oct 2017 The Singularity will occur in 2045, when humans multiply their effective intelligence a billion fold by merging with the AI they created. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 5 Oct 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 5 Oct 2017 An AI will pass a valid Turing test and achieve human levels of intelligence in 2029, the date Kurzweil has consistently predicted. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 5 Oct 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Prediction Oct 2017 The automobile will have more compute power than most computers. Satya Nadella · Prediction · Oct 2017 Technology
Mostly true Ray Dalio Prediction 12 Sep 2017 The US corporate tax rate in the eventual tax legislation will probably be about 23%. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Ray Dalio Prediction 12 Sep 2017 Algorithms will become part of people's lives. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 12 Sep 2017 Radical transparency will increasingly affect people and cannot be avoided. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
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Balaji Srinivasan

Open its page

Prediction Technology

“I think we’re going to have a bunch of different options, from email and phone number auth, username auth, biometrics, et cetera, where it’s just going to fit the particular use case.”

Balaji Srinivasan, interviewee 25 April 2018 Balaji Srinivasan on the Power and Promise of the Blockchain (Ep. 39) (Conversations with Tyler)

Authentication will use a range of options (email, phone number, username, biometrics) chosen to fit each use case.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Reasoning

Vague prediction with no horizon.

Cite this claim

Balaji Srinivasan, “Authentication will use a range of options (email, phone number, username, biometrics) chosen to fit each use case.” (said 25 April 2018). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_66e0d7dce615, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_66e0d7dce615

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.