Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,625 claims · page 19 of 27

2,625 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly false Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 Blockchain payment rails will structurally reduce financial fees over the coming years. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 In some ways, people who have large families will win the argument over family size, simply because they will have more children who in turn have more children; the speaker added that this is not really a logical argument. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Other
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 Authentication will use a range of options (email, phone number, username, biometrics) chosen to fit each use case. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Technology
Resolved true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 China may be moving toward using AI for pervasive, all-seeing control of its population. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 Drones are going to be a very big deal. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 The concepts bundled in an ICO will be unbundled and separated out in the years to come. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 Token-based financing at a very small, individual level will take about 20 years (perhaps 10), not 5, to be realized. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 The exponential growth under discussion will top out and follow a logistic curve at some point, since no exponential can continue indefinitely. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 Many people in places like Nigeria will work in new digital blue-collar jobs, such as Mechanical Turk-type tasks. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 AI-powered surveillance cameras may result in a very low-crime society. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 The new systems under discussion will have a business model of some kind, and what are now called fees may shift to another part of the system. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Prediction 11 Apr 2018 Technology that is 100 years old will, statistically, last another 100 years. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 11 Apr 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 Migrant-type labor could eventually become software-driven via remote robots, allowing workers to earn higher wages. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 It is likely that there will be more news in the 'news-you-can-use' category, such as tutorials, which readers can check themselves by going through each line as they read it. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 He said he thinks that, in general, the countries that will win the future will be software-savvy small countries such as Estonia, Singapore and Israel, with China as the one major exception to the small-country pattern. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 Other global risks
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 Eventually, humanoid robots combined with a VR bodysuit will let people script and control a robot from around the world, maybe in 10 years, seeing through the robot's eyes and moving its arms through the bodysuit. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 Technology
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 Interesting telepresence capabilities are about 5 to 10 years away. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 Once telepresence robots improve, a country's immigration policy will effectively become its firewall, as people can 'immigrate' remotely via internet-controlled robots. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 Once artificial general intelligence capabilities exist, they will scale too fast for an economic framing to be a useful way to view the problem. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 Very powerful and smart AI systems will redesign and improve themselves unless prevented for some reason. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 No AI development will ever look like a socially agreed, undeniable fire alarm for AGI. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 Once artificial general intelligence capabilities exist, something like AlphaZero going "from 0 to 120 mph in four hours or a day" is not out of the question. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 An AI built narrowly enough to be understood will not be able to defend against arbitrary unrestrained superintelligences. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 Yudkowsky thinks AGI will be built on purpose about 10 years before it would otherwise happen by accident. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 The first artificial general intelligence will be built in a research lab specifically dedicated to building it, not arise spontaneously from an unrelated system. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 Yudkowsky said he thinks the artificial general intelligence timeline is likely to run out before humanity gets much better at solving inadequacy and systemic problems in general. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 Better anti-virus software will not give automatic defense against superintelligence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Multinationals will occasionally debate using crypto to move profits between places, then decide against it for fear of public anger. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 No region will secede from any country (in Europe) by 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The culture wars will continue with both sides scoring own-goals, victory going to whichever side first gets its supporters to shut up. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The subject gave a 20% probability that Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Mostly false Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide between formal institutions for the rich and informal gig economies for the poor. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Polygenic scores will become publicly available to consumers, not necessarily by 2023 but not long after. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Technology
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would remember and publicly grade these predictions sometime in 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Research failed Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Cryptocurrency will neither collapse nor take over everything by 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Nobody will have performed a manned Mars or Moon landing between 2018 and 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The subject gave an 80% probability that one Bitcoin would cost above $1,000, in a prediction with a deadline of 15 February 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 With 80% probability, by February 2023 the Paris Agreement would still be in effect, with most countries generally making a good-faith effort to comply. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other global risks
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The extent of crisis in the Democratic Party will turn out to have been underestimated by everyone. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Through 2023, there will be no obvious sign that technological unemployment is happening on a large scale. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 AI, the economy and work
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 By 2023, two or three competing companies will offer low-level space tourism. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Technology
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The subject gave an 80% probability that by February 2023 the average person can hail a self-driving car in at least one US city. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Technology
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that he would totally miss whatever the most important trend of the next five years is. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 People will claim technological unemployment is visible, but they will be misinterpreting other factors such as labor force composition, disability policy and outsourcing. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 AI, the economy and work
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The subject described Kamala Harris rising to be the main contender against Bernie Sanders in the 2020 Democratic primary as "the worst-case scenario", not as a forecast that it would happen. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Christian mysticism will become more popular among intellectuals by 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The subject gave a 60% probability that Democrats win the US Presidency in 2020. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The subject gave a 70% probability that Vladimir Putin would still be in charge of Russia in 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Consumer polygenic score products will probably be normed on white (or Asian) subjects and work poorly for other races. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Technology
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 There will not be a Truckpocalypse before 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Global existential risks will hopefully not be a big part of the 2018-2023 period. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other global risks
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 By 2023, AI safety concerns will occupy about the same share of the public imagination as in 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 AI safety and alignment
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 It will become increasingly apparent that US politics has three separate groups: progressives, conservatives, and neoliberals. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The Middle East will get worse before it gets better over the next five years, especially Lebanon and the Arabian Peninsula, though Syria might improve. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Both culture-war scenarios will occur, but the Right's scenario will come together faster and the Right will score a minor victory. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 By 2023, AI will beat humans at progressively more complicated games, and commentators will dismiss this as a parlor trick unlike real life. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The only plausible way the subject said he could see for the Democrats to avoid the outcome he described was if Sanders died or became too sick to run before 2020. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 As Obamacare collapses, health insurance will start turning into a formal institution limited to college grads with good job prospects. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Europe's nationalism crisis will briefly die down as the Syrian refugee shock fades, then reignite, possibly after 2023, focused on African migrants. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The subject gave a 1% probability that at least one US state would have seceded, de jure or de facto, by 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Not researched Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The European Union will not collapse by 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio said he believes that if economies were to go down now, there would be a great deal of conflict. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 1 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects gross investments in 2018 of DKK 16-18 billion, covering offshore wind projects, the Asnæs Power Station biomass conversion and smart meter installation. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements of DKK 12-13 billion, compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 If the Hornsea 1 divestment happens in 2018, Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA including new partnerships to exceed DKK 22.5 billion. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects to farm down 50% of Hornsea 1 either in H2 2018 or in 2019. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Commercial drones will become a giant market in industries such as oil and gas and insurance. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 There is a real possibility that a flying car will not be purchasable by any US resident with enough money even by 2050 (original prediction: not before 2036). Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Hyperloop will not happen in Brooks's lifetime, i.e. not by 2050. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Autonomous drone technology is about to tip and become very widely usable. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Point-to-point transport on Earth in about an hour using a BF rocket will not happen in the author's lifetime without a major new breakthrough. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 The generally agreed 'next big thing' in AI beyond deep learning will be something already being worked on with published papers, emerging no earlier than 2023 and by 2027. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Realising the hyperloop will require many new technologies and designs, none of which existed before, for every aspect of the system. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Underground car-pallet transport at over 100mph will not become a real, viable mass-market service in the author's lifetime, only small demonstration projects. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Cities will be changed by driverless cars through special lanes, geo-fencing, altered pick-up/drop-off norms, parking regulation changes and other incremental modifications. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 No self driving car will be faced with an instance of the trolley problem until beyond 2050. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Sky Deal's autonomous consumer drones will be a very big advance in what hobbyists can do. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Flying cars will reach 0.01% of total US cars no earlier than 2042. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Claims before 2023 to be the next big thing in AI beyond deep learning will not pan out. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 There will be no commercially viable passenger-carrying hyperloop systems within the next 32 years (by 2050). Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Rodney Brooks said he thinks landing cargo on Mars by 2026 is optimistic, though it might be pushed to happen as a statement that it can be done rather than for a pressing practical reason. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Robotics, AI and ML will not produce a general intelligence that can suddenly do all the things humans or chimpanzees can do. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Entrepreneurial opportunity is more likely to be in areas people think of as cult and fringe. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 Jan 2018 In the three months after January 2018, the US economy will destroy more jobs than the World Economic Forum projected AI would destroy over the next five years. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Driverless cars will not simply replace human-driven cars one for one. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 A flying car will not be available for purchase by any US resident with enough money before 2036, and there is a real possibility this will not happen at all by 2050. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 Jan 2018 The things being described, which the speaker said would be used for drones, will become things people rely on to make their lives safer and better, and will be taken completely for granted. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 A conversational agent with long-term context that avoids repeated patterns will go from lab demo (no earlier than 2023) to widespread deployment on platforms like Google Home and Amazon Echo by 2025. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 A major city banning parking and human-driven cars from part of the city will be the starting point of a turn toward driverless cars, no earlier than 2027 and by 2031. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Two paying customers will not go on a loop around the Moon on a Falcon Heavy in the 4th quarter of 2018. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that he would not finish more than 25% of a new novel by the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would still be working at his current job at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that he would not attend the New York Solstice in 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that Robert Mueller would not indict Donald Trump during 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Donald Trump would still be US president at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Other
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Democrats would take control of the US House in the 2018 midterms. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that Reddit would not ban r/the_donald by the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Technology
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Balaji Srinivasan

Open its page

Prediction Economics and markets

“I think that’s going to structurally reduce fees over the years to come.”

Balaji Srinivasan, interviewee 25 April 2018 Balaji Srinivasan on the Power and Promise of the Blockchain (Ep. 39) (Conversations with Tyler)

Blockchain payment rails will structurally reduce financial fees over the coming years.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Horizon: about seven years from the claim, to end-2025, taking 'the years to come' as several years. TRUE: evidence shows that blockchain payment rails (crypto, stablecoins, blockchain-based settlement) structurally reduced fees in mainstream financial services such as payments, remittances or cross-border settlement, meaning a measurable, lasting fall that credible analyses (World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide, BIS, IMF, major industry studies) attribute in material part to those rails. MOSTLY TRUE: a measurable fee reduction attributable to blockchain rails exists but is limited to a significant segment, such as cross-border remittances or stablecoin transfers in certain corridors. MIXED: blockchain rails offer clearly cheaper options that are widely used in some niches, but the effect on overall fees is ambiguous or contested. MOSTLY FALSE: blockchain rails are cheaper only for small niche users, or fees fell mainly for other reasons (e.g. instant-payment systems such as UPI, Pix or FedNow, or fintechs like Wise) with blockchain playing a marginal role. FALSE: fees in the relevant markets did not fall, or analyses show blockchain rails had no measurable effect on them.

Evidence

  1. G20 Roadmap for Cross-border Payments: Consolidated progress report for 2025 Financial Stability Board (FSB) · 9 October 2025
    “However, the average global cost of such payments remains sticky, although some improvements have been made in the most expensive regions.”
  2. Competing rails for crossborder payments: banks, fintechs, and stablecoins | Bank for International Settlements Bank for International Settlements (BIS) · 19 October 2026
    “We find that fintech MTOs have significantly compressed the costs of cross-border payments, and demonstrate that stablecoins are not a panacea for frictions in cross-border payments.”
  3. Competing rails for crossborder payments: banks, fintechs, and stablecoins | Bank for International Settlements Bank for International Settlements (BIS) · 19 October 2026
    “First, fintech money transfer operators (MTOs) substantially reduce cross-border payment costs relative to traditional retail bank wires.”
  4. Traditional Providers Were Cheaper in One-Third of 33 Matched Corridors | TokenPost TokenPost · 31 October 2026
    “Stablecoin transfers averaged 2.18% on $200 payments across 270 cross-border corridors, below the G20’s 3% target, though the cheapest traditional remittance provider cost less in about one-third of 33 matched corridors.”

Reasoning

The FSB's 2025 progress report says the average global cost of cross-border payments "remains sticky", with some improvement only in the most expensive regions (E1). A BIS working paper finds that fintech money transfer operators significantly compressed cross-border payment costs and says stablecoins are "not a panacea" (E2, E3). An industry comparison finds stablecoin transfers averaging 2.18% on $200 payments, but traditional providers were cheaper in about one-third of the matched corridors (E4). Together, the evidence credits the cost reductions it reports to fintech money transfer operators, finds global average costs still sticky (E1), and shows mixed results for stablecoin costs (E4); no item attributes a measurable fee fall to blockchain rails, which fits the "mostly false" criterion.

Cite this claim

Balaji Srinivasan, “Blockchain payment rails will structurally reduce financial fees over the coming years.” (said 25 April 2018). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_49a183615bc4, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_49a183615bc4

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.