Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,528 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Steven Pinker Factual 13 Feb 2018 Steven Pinker's book Enlightenment Now was a follow-up to his book The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined. Steven Pinker · Factual · 13 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio has practiced transcendental meditation since 1969. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 At age 12, Ray Dalio became hooked on the stock market and invested his caddying money in a company's stock. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio made a 30-minute video called How the Economic Machine Works, available on YouTube. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio has liquidated positions to take risk off the table when certain events occurred and he was uncertain. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 Bridgewater uses a computer tool on an iPad that processes data in the background and coaches people on how to interact. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 Dalio recalls when "we" got the Kodak account, which he describes as a big deal because Kodak was a big, important client and the account was a stamp of institutional approval. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 Bridgewater has a protocol called the two-minute rule, letting a person speak for two minutes without interruption. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio said his video on YouTube had been downloaded 5,000,000 times and was highly rated. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio has never liquidated investment positions because of stress. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 In 2017, EBITDA from the new partnerships for Walney Extension and Borkum Riffgrund 2 totalled DKK 9.8 billion. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 Earnings from Ørsted's operating offshore wind farms increased by 45% in 2017. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects gross investments in 2018 of DKK 16-18 billion, covering offshore wind projects, the Asnæs Power Station biomass conversion and smart meter installation. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 Ørsted has decided to change its guidance method from 2018. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 In December 2017 Ørsted submitted its first bid for an offshore wind farm project in the USA. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 Ørsted delivered its highest operating profit ever in 2017. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 Ørsted's Board of Directors recommends increasing the dividend by 50% from DKK 6 to DKK 9 per share (DKK 3.8 billion in total). Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 Ørsted's underlying EBITDA adjusted for non-recurring items in 2017 was 56% higher than in 2016. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ørsted Promise Feb 2018 Ørsted targets at least 95% of its heat and power generation to be green in 2023. Ørsted · Promise · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 Ørsted's Wind Power EBITDA increased by 74% to DKK 20.6 billion in 2017. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 Ørsted has established a new unit to explore energy storage and solar PV projects and is looking more closely at the onshore wind market. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 Ørsted's Board of Directors approved the annual report for 2017 on the date of the announcement. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements of DKK 12-13 billion, compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 If the Hornsea 1 divestment happens in 2018, Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA including new partnerships to exceed DKK 22.5 billion. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 Net profit for Ørsted's continuing group increased by DKK 1.1 billion to DKK 13.3 billion in 2017. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 In 2017 Ørsted continued building out offshore wind and biomass generation, divested its oil and gas business, and decided to be coal-free by 2023. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 In 2017 Ørsted inaugurated the biomass-converted Skærbæk Power Station, continued rolling out smart meters in Danish homes and introduced differentiated tariffs in Radius' grid. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 The 50% farm-downs of Walney Extension and Borkum Riffgrund 2 contributed significantly to Wind Power's 2017 EBITDA increase. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 Ørsted's 2017 operating profit (EBITDA) was DKK 22.5 billion, 18% up on 2016. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 Ørsted's return on capital employed rose to 25% in 2017 from 17% in 2016, disregarding DKK 4.3 billion of non-recurring gas contract income in 2016. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 Ørsted increased its share of renewable energy by 14 percentage points to 64% in 2017. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Ørsted Promise Feb 2018 Ørsted's future guidance will only include the effect from existing offshore wind partnership agreements. Ørsted · Promise · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 Ørsted group revenue in 2017 was DKK 59.5 billion (EUR 8.0 billion). Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects to farm down 50% of Hornsea 1 either in H2 2018 or in 2019. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 In 2017 Ørsted won projects in Germany and the UK, and offshore wind for the first time competed on cost with new-build coal- and gas-fired power stations. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen Horowitz has since reversed course almost completely and is now deeply invested in healthcare. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen said that probably the single, No. 1 thing "we" try to get "our companies" to do is raise prices. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen described his firm's approach as one where, if the partner closest to a deal has a very strong degree of positive commitment and enthusiasm for it, the firm should make the investment even if others in the room disagree, though the partner is expected to stress test their own thinking first. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen said that "that", which in context seems to mean his firm's deep involvement in health, was "a response to the hedge fund thing". He added that very smart founders had been telling the firm it was "dumb"; the passage does not say what "the hedge fund thing" was. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen Horowitz formally creates a red team to argue the opposing side of a deal when necessary. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Promise 1 Jan 2018 Rodney Brooks will publish on his blog dated predictions covering the next thirty-two years. Rodney Brooks · Promise · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2018 Rodney Brooks's 1977 Master's thesis used Markov chains to prove the convergence of a particular machine learning algorithm. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Research failed Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen took part in a debate with Peter Thiel at the Milton Conference. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2018 Rodney Brooks previously identified underestimating adoption time of new technologies as the seventh of seven deadly sins of predicting the future of AI. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2018 In the months before January 2018, Rodney Brooks publicly criticised what he considers hype around AI and machine learning. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen prepared for weeks for his debate with Peter Thiel, expecting Thiel not to prepare. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen said Coinbase is "sort of our big bet," describing it as the easiest way to buy and sell Bitcoin. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Peter Thiel flatly says the iPhone does not count as innovation. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2018 Rodney Brooks has worked in both Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for over forty years. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Each general partner at Andreessen Horowitz can make a deal without a vote or consensus. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen Horowitz initially made no healthcare-related investments. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Promise 1 Jan 2018 Brooks said he had promised in 2018 to review his predictions at the start of every year until 2050, thirty-two years in total. Rodney Brooks · Promise · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen Horowitz has invested in two drone companies, including Airware as its first commercial drone investment. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that he would not finish more than 25% of a new novel by the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would still be working at his current job at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that he would not attend the New York Solstice in 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Slate Star Codex would get more hits in 2018 than in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 2018 GiveWell's total expenses in 2016 were $5.5 million. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable GiveWell Factual 2018 Among donors who gave in 2015, about 35% gave again in 2016, down from about 40% who gave again in 2015. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual 2018 Bill Ackman wrote that, as the largest investor in the Pershing Square funds, he and the other members of the Pershing Square team had experienced the funds' recent underperformance first hand. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 2018 GiveWell raised $5.6 million in unrestricted funding in 2016, compared to $5.1 million in 2015. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Bill Ackman Factual 2018 PSH shares were trading at approximately a 23% discount to NAV at the time of the letter. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 2018 All GiveWell Incubation Grants to date have been made by Good Ventures on GiveWell's recommendation. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 2018 GiveWell's research played a significant role in the decisions of The Life You Can Save and Giving What We Can, which make or made charity recommendations and have cited its research. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 2018 The major institutional supporters and the five largest individual donors contributed about 70% of GiveWell's operational funding in 2016. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 2018 GiveWell's seven top charities received the majority of its money moved in 2016. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 2018 As of June 2017, GiveWell and the Open Philanthropy Project became separate organizations. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Bill Ackman Factual 2018 The Pershing Square strategy's compounded annual return since inception has fallen to 13.6%, a six-fold return on a day-one investment. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Factual 2018 If GiveWell influenced the same proportion of unattributed donations as attributed ones, it would have influenced an additional $20 million not in its headline money moved figure. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual 2018 In 2017 Pershing Square's performance was hurt by the cost of the Allergan settlement, losses on the exit from Valeant, and losses from its short position in Herbalife. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 2018 In 2016, unique visitors to GiveWell's website excluding AdWords decreased by 8% compared to 2015. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 2018 From January 1, 2004 to July 31, 2015, investors in the Pershing Square strategy earned a 20.5% compounded annual return versus 7.8% for the S&P 500. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 2018 AMF, GiveDirectly and SCI received the most funding in direct donations attributed to GiveWell, which is why GiveWell focused on these three groups. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 2018 The number of 2016 donors who gave more than $10,000 in either of the last two years increased 13% to 424. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true GiveWell Factual 2018 In 2016 GiveWell saw growth in the number of donors and amount donated in every donor size category reviewed, except donors giving $1 million or more per year. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable GiveWell Factual 2018 In 2016, donors who gave $2,000 or more accounted for about 90% of GiveWell's money moved, excluding Good Ventures. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 2018 The report is limited to tracking the impact of GiveWell's work outside of the Open Philanthropy Project. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 2018 Facebook, reddit and Twitter remained top referral sources of traffic to GiveWell in 2015 and 2016, while other major sources varied year to year. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Factual 2018 GiveWell's best guess is that it is undercounting money moved by $10-20 million. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 2018 12,461 donors gave to GiveWell's recommended charities or GiveWell for the first time in 2016. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Bill Ackman Factual 2018 The discount to NAV at which PSH shares trade widened recently, adding to the effect of underperformance on PSH investors. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Factual 2018 GiveWell estimates about one-third of its 2016 expenses ($2.0 million) supported traditional top charity work and about two-thirds supported the Open Philanthropy Project, the same breakdown as in 2015. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 2018 GiveWell's staff grew from 32 at the end of 2015 to 39 at the end of 2016. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 2018 GiveWell has capped the operating support it uses from a single donor at 20% of its operating expenses to avoid over-reliance on any one source. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Factual 2018 GiveWell's best guess is that it played a significant role in influencing an additional $10-20 million of donations to AMF, GiveDirectly and SCI in 2016 that are not counted in its headline money moved. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 2018 GiveWell's 2016 tracked money moved total included Good Ventures grants of $50.4 million and $11.2 million in additional donations from several donors each giving more than $1 million. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 2018 In 2016, 93% of GiveWell's money moved came from about 20% of its donors, who gave $1,000 or more. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable GiveWell Factual 2018 GiveWell's true money moved in 2016 may be somewhat higher than recorded, since some donors giving directly to recommended charities may have been influenced by its research without reporting it. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable GiveWell Factual 2018 GiveWell's direct web traffic increased and traffic from other non-paid sources decreased between 2015 and 2016. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 2018 GiveWell's expenses increased from about $3.4 million in 2015 to $5.5 million in 2016 as staff grew and average seniority rose. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 2018 GiveWell's research is the sole input into these groups' recommendation of GiveWell's top charities. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 2018 In 2016 the number of donors giving to GiveWell's recommended charities or to GiveWell unrestricted increased about 16% to 17,829. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Factual Oct 2017 Satya Nadella uses an iPhone, an Android phone and a Windows phone. Satya Nadella · Factual · Oct 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Satya Nadella Factual Oct 2017 Microsoft is the only cloud provider that operates in China under Chinese law. Satya Nadella · Factual · Oct 2017 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Satya Nadella Factual Oct 2017 Microsoft operates its cloud in Germany under German law. Satya Nadella · Factual · Oct 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Satya Nadella Factual Oct 2017 Satya Nadella was a developer at Sun Microsystems, which he joined in 1990. Satya Nadella · Factual · Oct 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual Oct 2017 In the mid-to-late 1990s Microsoft bought a couple of companies, which were some of its largest acquisitions. Satya Nadella · Factual · Oct 2017 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Satya Nadella Factual Oct 2017 Microsoft 365 is the fastest-growing business inside Microsoft as of October 2017. Satya Nadella · Factual · Oct 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual Oct 2017 Microsoft has 43 data center regions as of October 2017. Satya Nadella · Factual · Oct 2017 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Satya Nadella Factual Oct 2017 Satya Nadella studied electrical engineering in India. Satya Nadella · Factual · Oct 2017 Their own work or organisation
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Factual Their own work or organisation

“It was a follow up to my book The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined.”

Steven Pinker, author, interviewee 13 February 2018 Steven Pinker Interview: Life Has Become Better (Smashing Interviews)

Steven Pinker's book Enlightenment Now was a follow-up to his book The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

The second judge said mostly true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

TRUE: Enlightenment Now (2018) was published after The Better Angels of Our Nature (2011), AND the author, the publisher or the book itself presents it as a follow-up, sequel or continuation of Better Angels (e.g. extending its trends-of-progress argument). MOSTLY TRUE: it came later and plainly builds on Better Angels' themes, but is not explicitly called a follow-up. MIXED: the books overlap only loosely, and the connection is disputed. MOSTLY FALSE: the order is right, but the book is presented as unrelated to Better Angels. FALSE: the publication order is wrong, or the books have no connection.

Evidence

  1. Making the case for the importance of reason - The Boston Globe The Boston Globe · 22 February 2018
    “His new book, “Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress,’’ somewhat less massive but still formidable, builds on the themes of that earlier one and broadens them, retaining the essential quality of optimism about human progress.”
  2. Making the case for the importance of reason - The Boston Globe The Boston Globe · 22 February 2018
    “In 2011, Harvard professor of psychology Steven Pinker published “The Better Angels of Our Nature,’’ a massive book arguing that, over time, the world has become a less violent place for humans to inhabit.”
  3. Harvard’s Pinker makes case for human progress in new book Harvard Gazette (Harvard University) · 27 February 2018
    “His new book, “Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress,” picks up on that theme, exploring how other threats to human well-being have been in similar retreat.”
  4. Book Review: ‘Enlightenment Now‘ by By Steven Pinker Washington Independent Review of Books · 16 March 2019
    “He brings us Enlightenment Now as a follow-up to his controversial 2012 book, The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined.”

Reasoning

E2 dates The Better Angels of Our Nature to 2011, and E1 and E3, both from 2018, describe Enlightenment Now as Pinker's new book, so the publication order is right. E1 says Enlightenment Now builds on and broadens the earlier book's themes. E3 says it picks up on Better Angels' theme and looks at other threats in similar retreat. E4, an independent review, calls Enlightenment Now a follow-up to Better Angels; its 2012 date for Better Angels conflicts with E2, but that does not change the order. Together with Pinker's own description of the book as a follow-up, this meets the TRUE criterion.

Cite this claim

Steven Pinker, “Steven Pinker's book Enlightenment Now was a follow-up to his book The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined.” (said 13 February 2018). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_ccc5be173c15, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ccc5be173c15

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.