2,625 claims · page 17 of 27
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Prediction | 4 Mar 2021 | Perhaps, in the long run, non-contrastive methods with latent-variable predictive models will prove a better alternative. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 4 Mar 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 14 Feb 2021 | Far more people will read the NYT article than will read Scott Alexander's response, so the NYT's plan will probably work. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 14 Feb 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Bill Gates | Prediction | Feb 2021 | New COVID-19 tests, treatments and vaccines will soon begin to bend the pandemic curve substantially. Bill Gates · Prediction · Feb 2021 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Prediction | Feb 2021 | The coronavirus pandemic will be the defining event of the Gateses' generation, as World War II was for their parents' generation. Bill Gates · Prediction · Feb 2021 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Tesla Semi will likely be the first vehicle to achieve full autonomy. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Tesla's next FSD computer (version 2) is expected to be about three times as powerful as version 1. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Tesla expects to become the market leader in solar and then go far beyond it. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Musk said he was highly confident Tesla's cars would drive themselves with reliability in excess of a human in 2021. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Musk said he was confident that "they", a group he described as having incredible attention to detail, would buy FSD as soon as it was working on time, which he said he hoped would be later in 2021. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Long-range trucking with batteries is feasible. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Safe Level 5 full self-driving can be achieved using only the current Full Self-Driving computer version 1. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Tesla thinks Dojo may be the best neural net training computer in the world, possibly by an order of magnitude. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 8 Jan 2021 | Grantham believes this event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles in financial history, alongside the South Sea bubble, 1929 and 2000. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 8 Jan 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 2021 | If the US does not take a radical step toward a fair, inclusive system, it will not be the leading country in the world for much longer. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 2021 | By default, automation will concentrate wealth and power in a tiny number of hands. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Prediction | 2021 | Training systems on video prediction with self-supervised techniques will provide a path towards some level of physical common sense in machines. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 2021 | Altman said he thinks a model similar to the one used by companies can work for the US as well as it does for companies. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 2021 | American Equity would create a society that Altman believes would work much better than today's. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Prediction | 2021 | A machine cannot be trained to be intelligent purely from text. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 2021 | Automation will significantly change how people think about work. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 2021 | If everyone benefits more directly from economic growth, it will be easier to move faster toward a better world with automation. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 2021 | In a world where economic growth guarantees basic needs, absolute poverty in America would be eliminated. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 2021 | American Equity would cushion the transition from today's jobs to the jobs of tomorrow. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 2021 | He said he believes a new US social contract with a floor and no ceiling would lead to a huge increase in US prosperity and keep the US in the global lead. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Prediction | 2021 | All of intelligence could possibly be solved by filling in blanks in language and similar self-supervised prediction. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2021 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 2021 | Automation could create more abundance than people ever dreamed possible. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 2021 | Eliminating poverty will increase productivity. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 2021 | American Equity would free Americans to work on what they really care about, improve social cohesion, and incentivize everyone to think about ways to grow the whole pie. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Prediction | 2021 | Active learning and reinforcement learning will become obsolete, useless or easy once self-supervised representation learning or predictive world models are figured out. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 2021 | Without policies addressing the cost of living crisis, any redistribution will be far less effective than it otherwise could be. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 2021 | As the economy grows, a world could emerge in which every American has their basic needs guaranteed. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 16 Dec 2020 | By about 2022, there may be empirical data on how much average men value female intelligence, e.g. what share would pay $5/month for a girlfriend as smart as GPT-3 rather than GPT-2. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 16 Dec 2020 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 15 Dec 2020 | Buffett said Carla Walker-Miller needs help and will make the most of it, and guaranteed that she will be a success and will employ lots more people in future than she does now. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 15 Dec 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 15 Dec 2020 | Business at restaurants, gyms and similar venues hit by pandemic fears will come back. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 15 Dec 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 15 Dec 2020 | there will be fraud connected with it Warren Buffett · Prediction · 15 Dec 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 16 Nov 2020 | Widespread Covid vaccinations that will end the pandemic in the US are only a few months away from November 2020. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 16 Nov 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 16 Nov 2020 | If the US does not take Covid seriously, another 500,000 Americans will die of Covid. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 16 Nov 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 25 Oct 2020 | Governments will outlaw cryptocurrency if it becomes viable as an alternative currency. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 25 Oct 2020 | The US will keep running large budget deficits in the future, regardless of who is president. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 25 Oct 2020 | Both major US parties will pursue an aggressive China policy. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 25 Oct 2020 | China, Europe and the US will have central-bank-controlled digital currencies. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 25 Oct 2020 | The medium of exchange between central banks will not be digital currency. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 25 Oct 2020 | There will be a lot of US-China decoupling over the five years following October 2020. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 25 Oct 2020 | The government will allocate resources through fiscal policy that will be monetized by the central bank, giving more government-controlled, coordinated fiscal and monetary policy. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 25 Oct 2020 | Dalio said he thought a Biden administration's policies would look more like the Roosevelt years, probably with larger deficits, larger spending and stimulation, and more monetization. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 25 Oct 2020 | Cash will be the worst investment in the current environment because of negative real returns. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 25 Oct 2020 | The US position relative to China will worsen over time because time is on China's side. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 6 Sep 2020 | Jet fuel, currently ignored, will likely be biofuel. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 6 Sep 2020 | Technology |
| Not yet due | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 18 Aug 2020 | For autonomous vehicles, the 'short run' of overestimated expectations will last 30 or more years. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 18 Aug 2020 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 9 Jul 2020 | There will be no level 5 autonomous cars on roads in 2020. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 9 Jul 2020 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 6 Jul 2020 | AI systems doing reckoning will surpass human capability. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 6 Jul 2020 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 6 Jul 2020 | Reckoning-type AI systems will have enormous scientific and economic impact. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 6 Jul 2020 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Nassim Taleb | Prediction | Jul 2020 | The scale of the pandemic might change, but its tail properties will remain invariant. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · Jul 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Nassim Taleb | Prediction | Jul 2020 | If a pandemic is not taken seriously, it will likely run wild, given modern connectivity. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · Jul 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 15 Jun 2020 | A system that does not strive to create equal opportunity for all who can work and basic support for those who cannot will inevitably experience some form of revolution. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 15 Jun 2020 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 11 Jun 2020 | Tyler Cowen said he suspects the equilibrium flow of new monuments will fall, following what he described as a recent decrease in the stock of standing monuments. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 11 Jun 2020 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Own records only | GiveWell | Prediction | 28 May 2020 | Much of GiveWell's work in 2020 will go forward as anticipated. GiveWell · Prediction · 28 May 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | May 2020 | The magnitude of the Covid-19 pandemic will largely depend on how quickly safe and effective vaccines and treatments can be developed and tested. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | May 2020 | Kurzweil said he believes that by the end of the decade we will be able to realistically model all biology and simulate interventions for diseases without the need for human trials. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | May 2020 | In the coming years, as AI simulation methods take off, researchers will be able to test all trillions of possible solutions to each health problem very quickly. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 | Science and research methods |
| Mostly false | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | May 2020 | Within several years all vaccine and medication development could be done by combining AI with biotechnology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | May 2020 | AI simulations have the potential to test all trillions of drug possibilities with tens of thousands of simulated patients over simulated years, in hours or days. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | May 2020 | Deploying an effective cure in weeks instead of a year could save tens of millions of lives in a future severe pandemic. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Prediction | 30 Apr 2020 | In two years' time (by 2022) more work will be done in public or hybrid cloud than now. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 30 Apr 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Prediction | 30 Apr 2020 | Microsoft's fiscal Q4 2020 will show consistent execution on a large annuity base, with continued usage and consumption growth across its cloud offerings. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 30 Apr 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Satya Nadella | Prediction | 30 Apr 2020 | Customers' growing digitization needs will be met with better pricing and better unit economics in cloud. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 30 Apr 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Satya Nadella | Prediction | 30 Apr 2020 | A third phase will bring structural change, for example in telemedicine. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 30 Apr 2020 | AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due | Marc Andreessen | Prediction | 18 Apr 2020 | The institutional failure over the coronavirus pandemic will have effects through the rest of the 2020s. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 18 Apr 2020 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Marc Andreessen | Prediction | 18 Apr 2020 | The essay "It's Time to Build" will be the target of criticism. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 18 Apr 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 31 Mar 2020 | Censoring anyone in this way, let alone a head of state, will push people towards censorship-resistant platforms. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 31 Mar 2020 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 30 Mar 2020 | When US stimulus checks arrive, people will spend them on consumer staples, after which prices will rise. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 30 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 29 Mar 2020 | The COVID-19 lockdown will not be the last lockdown. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 29 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 28 Mar 2020 | Biotech and tech for remote work, autonomy and digital services are among the businesses that may survive or even thrive during the pandemic. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 28 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 28 Mar 2020 | The coronavirus peak in the NYC metro area will probably come sooner than elsewhere in the US. Nate Silver · Prediction · 28 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 28 Mar 2020 | Businesses aligned with fighting the coronavirus or defending against its direct and indirect effects may survive or even thrive. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 28 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nate Silver | Prediction | 27 Mar 2020 | Almost nothing Joe Biden does in the next few weeks will matter much for the November 2020 election. Nate Silver · Prediction · 27 Mar 2020 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Nate Silver | Prediction | 26 Mar 2020 | Experts expect about 117,000 reported coronavirus cases in the US by Sunday 2020-03-29. Nate Silver · Prediction · 26 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | Microbes are likely to eventually become resistant to hand sanitizer if it is widely used. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | A very large number of people may need to be tested for COVID-19 because there may be more spreaders than assumed. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mixed | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | Testing may need to become extremely routine, effectively mainstreaming genomics. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | SARS-CoV-2 is not necessarily going to evolve to become less lethal, since it is already highly contagious and asymptomatic for long periods. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | The pandemic will force everybody to treat remote work as primary rather than auxiliary. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | COVID-19 could accelerate biomedicine as much as the Internet accelerated software. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | People will lean harder into social networks and online games as proxies for offline socialization because of the pandemic. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | Eventually scientists will be able to trace the most recent roots of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, though perhaps not for some time. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | People who suffer severe COVID-19 may have long-term health impacts that are not yet known. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | The pandemic will be a gigantic boost for every diagnostic and medical imaging company in the world, with defense-budget-level spending. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | Health screening of travellers will move to real time, within a day or an hour before boarding a flight. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | COVID-19 will cause at least a recession, likely something more severe. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | 2020 will establish a lasting new normal, as World War Two did for women in the workforce. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | Srinivasan said he thought China would build a nationwide system that constantly sequences and tests its population, then quarantines and vaccinates areas where a virus is rising. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | Srinivasan said he thought pandemic defense would become a significant part of China's defense budget going forward. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | Balaji Srinivasan said he thought trusted communities would start to emerge in which members have high trust that others are taking hygienic measures. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | Work-from-home tools such as home office chat will get really good as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 24 Feb 2020 | Building artificial general intelligence, as OpenAI aims to do, may eliminate the need for people to work. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 24 Feb 2020 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Prediction | 10 Feb 2020 | Global health work will become more important in future as climate change makes more people susceptible to disease. Bill Gates · Prediction · 10 Feb 2020 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Peter Thiel | Prediction | 7 Feb 2020 | Peter Thiel predicts that returns to ideas will be positive and greater than at any time in the last 50 years. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 7 Feb 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Peter Thiel | Prediction | 7 Feb 2020 | The strategic balance between the US and China will stay very even for a really long time. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 7 Feb 2020 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Demis Hassabis | Prediction | 15 Jan 2020 | Understanding how proteins fold could one day help unlock treatments for a range of diseases. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 15 Jan 2020 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 1 Jan 2020 | Both Boeing and SpaceX will eventually achieve crewed capsule flight. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2020 | Technology |
“Perhaps a better alternative in the long run will be to devise non-contrastive methods with latent-variable predictive models.”
Meta AI blog post, byline VP and Chief AI Scientist (LeCun) 4 March 2021 Self-supervised learning: The dark matter of intelligence (Meta AI)
Perhaps, in the long run, non-contrastive methods with latent-variable predictive models will prove a better alternative.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
Reasoning
A 'long run' prediction with no defined horizon.
Cite this claim
Yann LeCun, “Perhaps, in the long run, non-contrastive methods with latent-variable predictive models will prove a better alternative.” (said 4 March 2021). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_6645bc0f06d8, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6645bc0f06d8
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.