2,572 claims · page 16 of 26
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 29 Dec 2021 | The University of Austin will genuinely teach classic works. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 | Field building and careers |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 29 Dec 2021 | Current AI, being an approximation to intelligence rather than the real thing, will never really be trustworthy. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved false | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 14 Dec 2021 | Gary Marcus bet that hybrid (neurosymbolic) AI models would pull ahead in 2022. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Dec 2021 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 1 Dec 2021 | The US can build 6000 fusion boilers by 2040. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Dec 2021 | Technology |
| Not yet due | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 1 Dec 2021 | Khosla said he was optimistic that all coal and natural gas plants "in this country" can be replaced before 2040. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Dec 2021 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | The future business model of governments will be subscription and inflation. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | He thinks counter-decentralization efforts in the West will fail. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | Within roughly 10 to 20 years, India could become an intermediate between American anarchy and total Chinese control. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | If the US suffered a clear foreign military defeat, there could be an economic markdown of the US, as with Russia after World War I. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | Companies, currencies, cities, countries and communities will all become the same thing, essentially the projection of a social network. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | India may be a big component of the decentralized side in the China versus decentralized world split by around 2040. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | Issuing a currency will become a new business model, as companies, cities and countries issue currencies that trade alongside digital currencies. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | It is certainly possible that at some point in the future "they" will try something like Executive Order 6102. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | The unbundling and rebundling of countries when Pax Americana falls will probably be a messy global process. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | Over the next 20-40 years, the century will line up as a centralized China versus a decentralized world. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | Supply chain disruptions will start forcing a greater degree of autarky (national or local self-sufficiency). Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | A US executive order seizing Bitcoin could kick off serious civil unrest. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | Srinivasan said he thinks that by 2040 or 2050, maybe sooner, there could in theory be robotic, autarkic farms run by giving instructions to robotic field hands. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | Crypto entrepreneurs will write model legislation that will be adopted by states such as Texas, Wyoming, Colorado and Florida, including laws preventing Bitcoin seizures. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | If a shooting war involving the US occurs, Balaji Srinivasan thinks it quite likely that the US loses. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Other global risks |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | The DeFi matrix will be to the 2020s what the social graph was to the previous decade. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | Drones and similar technologies may make government enforcement of compliance cheaper, a trend he places around the late 2030s to 2040. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | Counter-decentralization (state control over networks) will succeed in China and fail in the US. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | The next political model will be 'crowd choice': a search engine of jurisdictions (rows) and policies (columns) that people and groups use to find a jurisdiction matching their preferences. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | He said he thinks "these laws" will get reexamined. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | In future tokenized cities, the price of a city's real-estate token will probably determine whether its leader is reelected. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | Balaji Srinivasan said he was cautiously optimistic that India and China would both maintain some degree of stability. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 11 Nov 2021 | If the first network state is successfully instantiated, the process will eventually become a template for anyone to start a country from their computer, beginning by building a following. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 11 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 11 Nov 2021 | A suitably talented administrator may be able to found successive polities (like Plymouth Colony, Massachusetts, then the US) as iterated network states within one lifetime. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 11 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 6 Nov 2021 | As a worst-case ('pessimal') prediction, Yudkowsky said the Fed would stay wrong about rising NGDP flow being the real cause of inflation until a Republican won the 2024 presidential election, after which it would decide interest rates needed to go way up. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Oct 2021 | In the future people won't need a physical TV, as holograms will replace screens. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Oct 2021 | The next computing platform and medium will be a more immersive, embodied internet, which Meta calls the metaverse. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Oct 2021 | The metaverse will be built by creators and developers making interoperable experiences and digital items that unlock a much larger creative economy than today's platforms allow. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Oct 2021 | People will probably have a photorealistic avatar for work, a stylized one for socializing and perhaps a fantasy one for gaming. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Oct 2021 | Remote work is here to stay for a lot of people. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Oct 2021 | The metaverse will be the successor to the mobile internet. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Oct 2021 | The metaverse will not be created by one company. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Not yet due | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Oct 2021 | Zuckerberg stated a hope, not a firm prediction: that if "we all work at it," within the next decade the metaverse would reach a billion people, host hundreds of billions of dollars of digital commerce and support jobs for millions of creators and developers. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Oct 2021 | Instead of typing or tapping, people will be able to control devices by gesture, voice or thought. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Oct 2021 | A TV will be available as a $1 hologram made by a high school kid elsewhere in the world. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Not yet due | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Oct 2021 | Zuckerberg expressed the hope ("Our hope is that...") that within the next decade the metaverse will reach a billion people, host hundreds of billions of dollars of digital commerce, and support jobs for millions of creators and developers. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Oct 2021 | Teleporting around the metaverse will be like clicking a link on the internet. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Oct 2021 | The next computing platform will be more immersive, an embodied internet where users are in the experience. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Oct 2021 | A lot of the technology shown at Connect 2021 will not be available within the next year or two. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Oct 2021 | Development of next-generation AR/VR platforms is still early in a journey that will go on for decades. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Oct 2021 | In the future, items like TVs, monitor setups and board games will be holograms designed by creators worldwide instead of physical goods assembled in factories. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Oct 2021 | In the future metaverse, people will be able to teleport instantly as holograms to the office, a concert or a parent's living room. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Oct 2021 | Avatars will become as common as profile pictures are today, as living 3D representations of users. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Not yet due | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Oct 2021 | Within five to ten years, much of this metaverse technology will be mainstream and many people will daily create and inhabit detailed, convincing virtual worlds. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 21 Oct 2021 | US hypersonics efforts will reach market faster than expected. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 21 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 21 Sep 2021 | The rosy scenario priced into markets may prove a pipe dream given high debt, supply-side risks and loose policies. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 21 Sep 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 21 Sep 2021 | The end game of the global debt trap will be a stagflationary debt crisis. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 21 Sep 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 21 Sep 2021 | Over time, negative supply shocks could turn mild stagflation into severe stagflation. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 21 Sep 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 19 Aug 2021 | The time needed to resolve the lawsuit will increase the likelihood that the Sponsor and Director Warrants expire worthless. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 19 Aug 2021 | A successful claim in the lawsuit would imply that every SPAC may also be an illegal investment company. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 19 Aug 2021 | The existence of the litigation may deter potential merger partners from working with PSTH until the lawsuit is resolved. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 19 Aug 2021 | The lawsuit against PSTH is unlikely to be resolved in the short term. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 19 Aug 2021 | Ackman stated that "we expect" all PSTH shareholders would be highly supportive of the rule change needed to replace the Distributable Warrants with SPARC Distributable Warrants. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 19 Aug 2021 | The Sponsor Warrants will likely be worthless if PSTH does not complete a high-quality transaction on favorable terms. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 19 Aug 2021 | PSTH will secure SPARC's approval, giving a path to mitigate the harm the litigation causes shareholders and warrant holders. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 3 Aug 2021 | The Biden administration's new neo-populist economic doctrine will be risky. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 3 Aug 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 20 Jul 2021 | Bitcoin's price should fall much lower than below $30,000 based on fundamentals. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 20 Jul 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 29 Jun 2021 | It seems very likely that people who received one dose of the J&J COVID vaccine would benefit from a Pfizer or Moderna booster. Nate Silver · Prediction · 29 Jun 2021 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 11 Jun 2021 | The US could see a rise in COVID cases because of the Delta variant, as in the UK. Nate Silver · Prediction · 11 Jun 2021 | Biosecurity |
| Not yet due | Ørsted | Prediction | 2 Jun 2021 | Ørsted expects its average return on capital employed for 2020-2027 to be 11-12%. Ørsted · Prediction · 2 Jun 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Ørsted | Prediction | 2 Jun 2021 | Ørsted expects EBITDA from offshore and onshore assets in operation to grow approx. 12% a year on average in 2020-2027, reaching DKK 35-40 billion in 2027. Ørsted · Prediction · 2 Jun 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Ørsted | Prediction | 2 Jun 2021 | Approx. 90% on average of Ørsted's EBITDA for 2020-2027 will come from regulated or contract-based activities. Ørsted · Prediction · 2 Jun 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | A Y-shaped recovery, with a different fork taken, will come out of the COVID-19 pandemic. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | The future may be a centralized East versus a decentralized West. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | Once everything is fully automated, warfare will eventually be purely drone against drone. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Other global risks |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | A shift from a standing military to a citizen military will have to wait until around midcentury, when warfare is all drones. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Other global risks |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | He said he did not think it would be great to be a Chinese American in four or five years, as a new Cold War heats up, and added that he hoped it would not come to that. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | If some federal action against crypto happens, places such as Wyoming and Miami will probably litigate and fight it, because they have a strong incentive to do so. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | The US federal government will carry out a regulatory attack of some kind on crypto, and Mnuchin already tried something. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly false | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | By 2024, people in the US will have to use a VPN because of ISP-level internet filtering and censorship. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | The most likely attack on Bitcoin is China putting up the Great Firewall against it, a network-level attack. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | Balaji Srinivasan said he thinks India is going to be the dark horse of this decade, and that this is not priced in. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | A US defeat over Taiwan would be the true end of the American empire. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | The Chinese Communist Party may be an exception to the internet undermining centralized institutions. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | Few institutions that predated the internet will survive the internet. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Technology |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | In some country, probably the US, the cloud will burst sometime in the 2020s. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | The subject said that the simplest thing he described is, in his view, guaranteed to produce really exceptional returns, while adding that looking back from 2030 there would almost certainly be something that did better. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | Strain on the existing system will eventually result in mass migrations and people assembling into like-minded communities to rebuild civil society. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | In drone-on-drone warfare, people will surrender rather than have civilians killed. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | He did not think there would be stripping of citizenship or anything like the Japanese internment. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | A US loss in a Taiwan conflict would have huge consequences, comparable to the Russo-Japanese War of 1905. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | Balaji Srinivasan said he thinks there will be a thousand more leaders like the person he called the first startup CEO of a country, of a city state. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | He said he feared that, if vaccines were rolled out and enough Americans took them, by 2023 or 2024 people would be spoiling for a fight with China as the one legitimated enemy. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | The US government will probably carry out a regulatory attack on crypto. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | Ethereum will scale, but applications such as derivatives might move to chains specialized for them. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | A global internet Cold War, in which social and currency networks compete for ideological and economic dominance, has just begun. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | China is very likely to carry out a firewall attack on Bitcoin at some point. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | Probably by 2025, and by 2030 at the latest, Zoom users will have audio and video filters that make them sound and look like a different person. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | In a serious non-nuclear US-China military conflict, China would probably win. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | Most of the world will want to stay away from a US-China fight. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Other global risks |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | Balaji Srinivasan said he thinks that after the 2020s, being incorporated in the US will be considered a major vulnerability. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | China will never be able to eliminate Bitcoin. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Mar 2021 | There is about a 30 percent chance of a firewall attack on Bitcoin, over a timeframe the interviewer framed as the next five years. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Prediction | 4 Mar 2021 | Researchers may never develop techniques to represent suitable probability distributions over high-dimensional continuous spaces such as all possible video frames. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 4 Mar 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Prediction | 4 Mar 2021 | Perhaps, in the long run, non-contrastive methods with latent-variable predictive models will prove a better alternative. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 4 Mar 2021 | AI capabilities |
“I think they will genuinely teach classic works.”
Tyler Cowen, interviewee 29 December 2021 Conversations with Tyler 2021 Retrospective (Ep. 139) (Conversations with Tyler)
The University of Austin will genuinely teach classic works.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
What would count as true or false
Judge on evidence up to the time of research. True: UATX's curriculum includes required or core courses built around classic works (for example Great Books, Western or other canonical texts) that are actually taught to enrolled students. Mostly true: classic works appear prominently in courses, but are not a required core. Mixed: classic works appear only in a minority of the offerings. Mostly false: there is only incidental use of classic texts. False: there is no such teaching, or no instruction took place.
Evidence
- 415 Texts Our Students Are Reading From This Fall UATX (University of Austin) Substack · 28 September 2026
“Epic and Tragedy Professors Isabella Reinhardt, David Levy, Allison Levy, and Spencer Klavan - The Odyssey, Homer - Bacchae, Euripides”
- 2025-2026 Academic Catalog University of Austin · 26 August 2026
“Students must complete 180 credit hours (45 per academic year) to graduate with a Bachelor of Arts in Liberal Studies, normally distributed over three terms per year with a course load of fifteen hours per term. Within these 180 hours, they must complete the following: Intellectual Foundations”
- We charge you nothing except everything you’ve got. University of Austin · 1 March 2026
“Every undergraduate completes a core grounded in the Great Books of Western civilization, alongside rigorous training in mathematics, the sciences, and AI.”
- Built to battle ‘woke’ academia, a new Texas school takes on fresh relevance after Oct. 7 The Times of Israel · 24 August 2024
“The first two years will focus on what the school calls Intellectual Foundations, offering programs diving into the works of Homer, Plato, George Orwell, Tocqueville, Confucius, and Descartes among others;”
Reasoning
The 2025-2026 academic catalog makes "Intellectual Foundations" a required part of the BA (E2). The university's homepage says every undergraduate completes a core grounded in the Great Books of Western civilization (E3). A fall 2026 reading list of texts students are currently reading includes courses such as Epic and Tragedy, which assigns Homer's Odyssey and Euripides' Bacchae (E1). Earlier independent reporting described the Intellectual Foundations years as built on works by Homer, Plato, Tocqueville, Confucius and others (E4). Together these show classic works being taught to enrolled students in a required core, which meets the criteria for true.
Cite this claim
Tyler Cowen, “The University of Austin will genuinely teach classic works.” (said 29 December 2021). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_e218000e83ba, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e218000e83ba
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.