Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,625 claims · page 15 of 27

2,625 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 10 Jun 2022 Losing a conflict with a high-powered cognitive system looks at least as deadly as everyone on Earth suddenly dying within the same second. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 10 Jun 2022 Using current alignment techniques, humanity is not on course to get AGI that avoids killing everyone with probability roughly 1. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 10 Jun 2022 Given insufficient foresight by the operators, Yudkowsky expects many of those alignment problems to appear at about the same time after a sharp AI capability gain. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 10 Jun 2022 Future AGI will not be upper-bounded by human ability or human learning speed. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 10 Jun 2022 A sufficiently capable cognitive system with any medium-bandwidth channel of causal influence could easily bootstrap to overpowering capabilities independent of human infrastructure. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 10 Jun 2022 Yudkowsky expects that training by gradient descent against that behavior in a toy domain would produce not-particularly-coherent local patches to thought processes, which would break with near-certainty inside a superintelligence generalizing far outside its training distribution. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 10 Jun 2022 Programmers' and operators' methodologies may break when they move from not-fully-dangerous to dangerous AI domains, which are out-of-distribution for them. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 10 Jun 2022 Fast AI capability gains seem likely and may break many previous alignment-required invariants simultaneously. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 10 Jun 2022 Systems much smarter than humans would be able to learn from less evidence than humans require. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 10 Jun 2022 Even if an AGI ends up perfectly inner-aligned on a sensory reward signal, an AGI strongly optimizing on that signal "will kill you", because the sensory reward signal was not a ground truth about alignment as seen by the operators. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 10 Jun 2022 Many anti-corrigible lines of reasoning may first appear only at high levels of AI intelligence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 9 Jun 2022 Democrats could hold the Senate in the 2022 midterms if GOP candidates are subpar in a couple of key states or Democrats win the closest races. Nate Silver · Prediction · 9 Jun 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 9 Jun 2022 Democrats holding the House in the 2022 midterms would require an unlikely change in the national environment. Nate Silver · Prediction · 9 Jun 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 Digital super intelligence will be within humans rather than separate from them. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 People will hear early claims that computers have passed the Turing test and will not pay attention to them. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 AI capabilities
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 Beyond the point reached around 2032, a timing he said depends on how diligent a person is, people will get back more than a year of longevity from scientific progress for each year lived. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 Individual people will be able to do more than today because they will have many more skills through AI. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 It will probably take about four or five years before AI passing the Turing test becomes obvious and no longer a question. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 Designing proteins that flag and destroy cancer cells (e.g. with AlphaProteo) would amount to a cure for cancer. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 Kurzweil said he thinks molecular assemblers, which would let people build anything they want anywhere, will arrive more like the 2040s. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 Humans will not use actual brain matter to expand their brains, but computer-based intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 Ultimately humans will be able to create new types of bodies and won't be limited to one. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 Kurzweil said he believes that if people can hold on for five, maybe ten years, "we can replace all of these problems" that make them die sooner than they want. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 The rate of gain in longevity from medical progress will accelerate. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 Biosecurity
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 Kurzweil says that saying "by the end of the decade" is conservative and that it could happen faster; the material does not state what the estimate refers to. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 People will have access inside their own minds to all the creations of every living person who has demonstrated anything. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 New types of jobs will emerge that cannot be imagined today. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 It will become very hard to imagine how a person could die, with brain and heart backups. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 Biosecurity
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 Kurzweil said he thinks people will be given money so they can manage while they reconsider what kind of work they will be able to do. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 Simulated-biology testing of medications against cancer will be millions of times faster than past methods. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 AI will go inside humans and make them much smarter than before. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Prediction 24 May 2022 Gaming as a horizontal capability will probably inform the next phase of the internet, which people call the metaverse. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 24 May 2022 Technology
Resolved true GiveWell Prediction 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell likely will not be able to share a full response to all contest entries, due to limited research capacity. GiveWell · Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable GiveWell Prediction 6 Apr 2022 Excellent contest entries may lead to changes in how GiveWell allocates millions of dollars of funding. GiveWell · Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 Science and research methods
Unresolvable GiveWell Prediction 6 Apr 2022 Most strong contest entries will focus on one of the six listed programs. GiveWell · Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable GiveWell Prediction 6 Apr 2022 Contest entries focused on the six listed programs will likely have a higher chance of meaningfully influencing GiveWell's overall allocation of funding. GiveWell · Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Apr 2022 Ultimately solutions to all medical problems will be found using simulated biology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Apr 2022 Reaching human-level AI will not need a massive new breakthrough beyond current neural nets with additional changes. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Apr 2022 It will become possible to test treatments on a million simulated humans within a few days, rather than a few hundred real humans. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Apr 2022 Ultimately drug testing will no longer need to be done on humans, because simulated biology will replace it. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Apr 2022 In the 2030s humans will begin to merge with AI, connecting their minds to the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Apr 2022 AI will pass the Turing test by 2029. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Apr 2022 By 2045 most human thinking will take place in the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Apr 2022 AI will probably pass the Turing test earlier than 2029. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 24 Mar 2022 At some point VR will get haptics. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 24 Mar 2022 Technology
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 24 Mar 2022 Zuckerberg suggested that maybe five years from now, if they were doing the same conversation, AR glasses could let a hologram of him sit on the couch next to the interviewer. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 24 Mar 2022 Technology
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 24 Mar 2022 People will increasingly use these technologies to be present in places they physically cannot be. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 24 Mar 2022 Technology
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 24 Mar 2022 Workrooms will probably learn what it needs to do to become a great product a lot faster than many others in the space. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 24 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 24 Mar 2022 The first haptics will not have high resolution, but will improve every year. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 24 Mar 2022 Technology
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 24 Mar 2022 The metaverse will lead to the creation of many different virtual worlds with different rules. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 24 Mar 2022 Technology
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Prediction 4 Mar 2022 Daniela Amodei said she hopes that in the next few years many different groups will develop more practical tools and techniques for advancing AI safety research. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 4 Mar 2022 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Prediction 4 Mar 2022 More advanced AI systems could bring transformative benefits in areas such as renewable energy, health, disease detection and economic growth. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 4 Mar 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Musk said his personal guess was that "we" would achieve full self-driving in 2022, with a safety level significantly greater than the present. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla sees its energy business as probably reaching a terawatt-hour per year in the long term. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 In 2022 supply chain will continue to be the fundamental limiter of output across all Tesla factories. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 The chip limitation on Tesla production should alleviate in 2023. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI compute, hardware and data
Mixed Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Batteries will probably not be the limiting factor in Cybertruck production. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Long term, effectively every car will have FSD. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 A robotaxi ride will cost less than the subsidized value of a bus ticket. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Dojo should reduce the cost of training Tesla's neural networks. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Musk said he thought "we" were completely confident at that point that "it" would be achieved. In the surrounding remarks he discussed robotaxis and gave his personal guess that full self-driving would be achieved that year. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Musk said "it" is not a long-term thing because a great amount of chip fabs are going to be built. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla cars becoming self-driving via software update might be the biggest increase in asset value of any asset class in history. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla's Dojo supercomputer appears on track to be doing something useful in summer 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla still expects to be partly or primarily chip-limited in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla thinks its stationary storage products (Powerwall and Megapack) will transition to an iron-based, non-nickel battery chemistry. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Technology
Resolved true Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla's energy business will grow in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Musk said that Tesla thinks that, over time, full self-driving will become the most important source of profitability for Tesla. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI capabilities
Resolved false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Musk said he would be shocked if Tesla did not achieve full self-driving safer than a human in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Manganese could be part of the future of stationary storage chemistry, though primarily iron. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Technology
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Once full self-driving is delivered, millions of Tesla cars in the U.S. will suddenly have about four or five times the utility overnight. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Musk said he thinks that once cars are autonomous, the cost of transport may drop by something like a factor of four or five. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 26 Jan 2022 Netflix's improving free cash flow profile should allow continued investment in growth and return of cash to shareholders. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square said it believes its portfolio companies will continue to compound their intrinsic values at high rates over the long term, while noting it does not know what the stock market will do over the next day, month or year or two. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 26 Jan 2022 Netflix's economies of scale and industry-leading content should continue to drive future growth and widen its competitive moat. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 The statement, written as "we believe", predicts that the attributes it describes (a legal regime where the rule of law is generally respected, limited corruption, a world class military and defense, and a corporate and capital markets environment where capitalism can flourish) will increase in importance to investors in light of recent events. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 The statement said "we believe" that Hilton would continue to grow its market share at an attractive rate over time. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Bill Ackman said "we believe" that all of "our portfolio companies" will generate long-term durable growth, citing their market positions, free cash flow generation, returns on capital, pricing power and balance sheets. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Pershing Square said in 2022 that it expected that, with continued strong performance, PSH's discount to NAV would narrow and its NAV and market value returns would converge. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Ackman said he believed hotel demand was likely to sustainably normalize at or above 2019 levels at some point later in 2022. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 The subject said they believe home improvement industry demand is likely to normalize at a higher baseline than before the pandemic. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Pershing Square said it believes successful completion and integration of the KCS acquisition will lead to attractive investment returns relative to its purchase price for CP. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Bill Ackman said "we expect" the railroad industry's share of the freight transportation market to meaningfully improve from current levels. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 The statement attributed to Bill Ackman said "we" expect CP's leadership team to make significant operational improvements at KCS. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Lowe's is headed for another year of double-digit earnings-per-share growth in 2022. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Ackman stated an estimate ("we estimate") that over the next decade Netflix can achieve double-digit annual revenue growth, significantly expand its operating profit margins, and grow earnings per share by more than 20% per year. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Prediction 2022 She said she hoped, and thought, that in the next few years the AI industry would see something closer to standard-setting organizations, industry groups or trade associations setting out what a safe model looks like. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 2022 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 The speaker said "we" expect each of the holdings listed just before the quote (including Restaurant Brands, Domino's, Lowe's, Howard Hughes, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Hilton and Canadian Pacific) to grow revenues and profitability over the long term. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Prediction 2022 Daniela Amodei said she hoped, and thought it likely, that in the next few years AI would see something closer to standard-setting organizations, industry groups or trade associations setting out what a safe model looks like or how to move systems towards being safer. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 2022 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Risk premiums should continue to rise. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Pershing Square said it believes the SPARC structure will, over time, enable it to own large stakes in high quality, newly public businesses that meet its investment criteria. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Pershing Square expects its portfolio companies to continue to compound their intrinsic values at even higher rates than before due to their currently reduced valuations. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 UMG does not need to acquire catalogs to continue its strong growth and achieve its medium-term guidance from its last Capital Markets Day. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Speaking as "we", the statement said they believe CP's acquisition of KCS will be transformational for CP's rail network. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 UMG can grow revenues at an annual rate approaching double digits for more than a decade. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 The current geopolitical environment has increased the probability of significant North American onshoring and energy investment, which would strengthen CP's volume growth over time. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Chipotle is on track to achieve management's goal of more than $3 million in average restaurant sales. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Pershing Square believes the businesses it owns have substantial pricing power that will enable them to cover the costs of inflation. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Deglobalization appears to be coming to the capital markets, much as the world is deglobalizing. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Prediction 29 Dec 2021 The University of Austin will attract a fair number of students. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 Field building and careers
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Eliezer Yudkowsky

Open its page

Prediction AI safety and alignment

“Losing a conflict with a high-powered cognitive system looks at least as deadly as “everybody on the face of the Earth suddenly falls over dead within the same second”.”

Eliezer Yudkowsky, writing on MIRI's site 10 June 2022 AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities (MIRI)

Losing a conflict with a high-powered cognitive system looks at least as deadly as everyone on Earth suddenly dying within the same second.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

Hypothetical comparison of counterfactual outcomes with no horizon; not testable.

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Losing a conflict with a high-powered cognitive system looks at least as deadly as everyone on Earth suddenly dying within the same second.” (said 10 June 2022). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_15bc42418896, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_15bc42418896

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.