Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,625 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2023 AI will pass the Turing test by 2029, possibly sooner. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2023 By 2045 humans will multiply their intelligence millions-fold by adding AI to their brains. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2023 By 2029 we should be able to overcome most significant health problems. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Prediction 2023 Pinker expressed doubt that the growth of large language models will be exponential. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2023 Biological simulation of humans will ultimately replace human testing of treatments. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2023 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Prediction 2023 Pinker suspects that large language models will not grow exponentially and develop self-awareness as a self-perpetuating technology. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 2023 AI misuse risks such as biological or chemical weapons uplift might become real risks in 2025 or 2026. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 2023 Biosecurity
Resolved true Steven Pinker Prediction 30 Dec 2022 ChatGPT will not put Google Search out of business in the near term. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 30 Dec 2022 Technology
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 will still be reckless and hard to control, making a significant number of stupid errors. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4's natural language output still won't be reliably usable as input to downstream programs such as databases or virtual assistants. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 Trustworthy AI will need genuinely new architectures incorporating explicit knowledge and world models at their core. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 When GPT-4 comes out it will totally eclipse ChatGPT, and it is a safe bet that even more people will be talking about it. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 will definitely seem smarter than its predecessors, but its internal architecture will remain problematic. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 will not be trustworthy and complete enough to give reliable medical advice. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 Marcus fully expected GPT-4 to be the shiniest model so far, but said that this does not mean it is a critical step on the optimal path to AI that can be trusted. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 will be a very large, powerful system (a 'monster'). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 With GPT-4, fluent hallucinations will still be common and easily induced, escalating the risk of LLMs being used to create misinformation. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 may be better at faking term papers, but if it follows the same playbook as its predecessors, it still won't really understand the world, and its flaws will eventually show. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 Within a decade, maybe much less, AI's focus will shift from pure scaling of large language models to integrating them with other techniques. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 by itself won't be a general-purpose AGI; without external aids it won't beat Cicero in Diplomacy, drive a car reliably, or reliably guide a robot like Optimus. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 will blow people's minds when released. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 Marcus suspected that GPT-4's release would follow a pattern of immense buzz, then scientific scrutiny, then recognition that many problems remain. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 If GPT-4 is architecturally essentially the same as GPT-3, it can be expected to be unable to construct internal models of how the world works and, in consequence, unable to understand things at an abstract level. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 AI alignment between human wants and machine behavior will remain a critical unsolved problem, with GPT-4 unable to reliably follow shared human values. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4's reasoning about the physical, psychological and mathematical world will still be unreliable. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 will remain a pastiche generator and useful for brainstorming and first drafts, but not trustworthy general intelligence. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 9 Nov 2022 Something like a "crazed socialist thing ala Bernie Sanders or AOC" is dead on arrival within the Democratic Party. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 Other
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 9 Nov 2022 Without economic growth, the US will not solve political polarization, nihilism and anger. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 9 Nov 2022 In what he called a speculative prediction, Thiel said the California approach would beat everything within the Democratic Party but would be found shockingly wanting when it reached the country as a whole. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 Other
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 9 Nov 2022 The US response to China will be helped by China going completely berserk internally. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 Other
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 9 Nov 2022 Thiel suggested that, perhaps for structural reasons, once China's economy grows at only 3 or 4% a year with uneven growth, China will become more authoritarian and more totalitarian, "something like that". Peter Thiel · Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 Other
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 9 Nov 2022 The people Thiel was referring to as "they" would be the first millennial Republican senators. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 Other
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 9 Nov 2022 Thiel said "we", a group he compared to the Rebel Alliance, will have a vigorous debate over the next few years to figure out the answers. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 Other
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 9 Nov 2022 Thiel said that, if "it" is not enough for the Democrats, it is probably enough for the Republicans to win the 2024 presidential election; the excerpt does not say what "it" refers to. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 Other
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 6 Nov 2022 Roubini said he did not think a variant of another Great Depression could be ruled out if the threats he describes in his book were to materialize. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 6 Nov 2022 The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 6 Nov 2022 Millennials, Gen X and Gen Z may be the first generations to be worse off than their parents in income, jobs, benefits and economic and wealth security. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 6 Nov 2022 History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 6 Nov 2022 The coming US recession will not be short and shallow. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 6 Nov 2022 US stocks will fall much lower than their November 2022 level before flattening out. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 6 Nov 2022 Even in a mild recession the US stock market has to fall 30% from its peak, meaning about another 10% down from the November 2022 level. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 6 Nov 2022 Developments connected to machine learning will cause massive inequality, with owners of capital and highly skilled labor winning while everybody else loses. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 6 Nov 2022 Once the Fed stops raising rates or pivots to cuts, gold will act as a hedge. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 6 Nov 2022 Stocks may enter a period like 1973-1982, when they dropped and stayed very low for a long time. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 3 Nov 2022 In Balaji Srinivasan's view, AR glasses are the most predictable innovation in the world. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 3 Nov 2022 Technology
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 He does not expect hyperinflation or double-digit inflation in the advanced economies. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 Over the longer term, AI will make humans almost completely obsolete. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 There will be inflation, recession and stagflation plus a stagflation-debt crisis causing many people to go bankrupt. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 Central banks, starting with the Bank of England, will wimp out on tightening, causing inflation to go above 2%. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 There is a very real risk of a return to 1930s-40s conditions of economic collapse, massive pandemic and real wars. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Other global risks
Resolved true Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 UK mortgage rates may double because of reckless fiscal policy and debt build-up. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 The US and China will eventually be on a collision course over Taiwan or the East and South China Seas. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Other global risks
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 With interest rates rising, the mother of all debt crises is going to occur. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 If the major threats are not acted on within the next decade, the world will reach a point of no return. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Other global risks
Not yet due Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 There may be a global conflict in the next decade. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Other global risks
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 If the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheet cracks, sea levels will rise 10 feet within about 4 months. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Other global risks
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 If inflation gets de-anchored, it can rise from around 2% to 4% or even 5% or more. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 If inflation rises from 2% to 6%, 10-year US Treasury yields would rise to about 8%. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Oct 2022 The economy is entering an era of stagflation, debt instability and crisis. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Oct 2022 Unless the mega threats are addressed, the world is headed towards disaster. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Oct 2022 Other global risks
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 13 Oct 2022 AI smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will require millions of chips and at least tens of billions of dollars, and is most likely to arrive in 2026-2027. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 13 Oct 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 13 Oct 2022 US AI companies will soon achieve similar cost reductions, through the usual cost-reduction trend rather than by copying DeepSeek. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 13 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved false Dario Amodei Prediction 13 Oct 2022 The situation where several companies can produce good reasoning models will rapidly cease as everyone moves further up the scaling curve. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 13 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 16 Sep 2022 Humans will become far smarter by using machines to increase the number of parameters they can consider in decisions. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 16 Sep 2022 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 16 Sep 2022 Humans will go beyond their current 300 million neocortical modules. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 16 Sep 2022 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 16 Sep 2022 Humans will be able to multiply their neocortical capacity by ten, a hundred, a thousand, a million. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 16 Sep 2022 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 16 Sep 2022 Kurzweil said he believes humans will be enhanced by technology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 16 Sep 2022 Technology
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 8 Sep 2022 Germany's increased pledge to the Global Fund will help save millions of lives. Bill Gates · Prediction · 8 Sep 2022 Other
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 31 Aug 2022 If history repeats, the current superbubble's end will again be a tragedy for markets. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 31 Aug 2022 Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 31 Aug 2022 In the final stage, fundamentals will deteriorate and the market will decline to a low. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 17 Aug 2022 Eradicating malaria will be harder following the COVID-19 pandemic. Bill Gates · Prediction · 17 Aug 2022 Other
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 The US will have genuine goods shortages because of supply chain problems. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 By the end of the 2020s, cryptocurrency will be what all politics is about, as social media was in the 2010s. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 Many non-white people in the US will shift to supporting Bitcoin because of inflation. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 Opt-in online networks will be able to be materialized as communities in the physical world. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 A coup attempt against the Chinese leadership would not succeed. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Other
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 In five or ten years people will care a great deal where their money is held and whether it can be frozen. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 By the end of the 2020s, governments will not be able to fund themselves without cryptocurrency. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 Amendments barring seizure of Bitcoin will probably be ratified in a fair number of US states. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 Balaji Srinivasan said he does not believe the things he was describing are going to go away, calling this his personal belief and not financial advice. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 The majority of English speakers on the internet are or soon will be in India. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 The Chinese state would respond to a coup attempt with AI-enabled surveillance to root out civil society groups that collaborated. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 Srinivasan said he thinks that in the US it will play out as something like maximalists versus wokes. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 The United States is heading toward anarchy. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 Freeze and seizure orders will be issued to centralized crypto exchanges. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 If the US has genuine serious inflation or hyperinflation, American society will come apart. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 It is possible, though not certain, that some kind of coup will be attempted against Xi Jinping or the Chinese Communist Party. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Other
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 An inflation-tracking app combining crypto tools will become the new CoinMarketCap, checked daily by users. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 Srinivasan said he thinks the US will see very serious inflation because the Federal Reserve will probably be forced to cut rates to the floor, possibly before the 2024 election, and print money. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 The political spectrum will rotate so that red-blue becomes orange versus green. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 Bitcoin will probably become the Schelling point (focal asset) for assets that cannot be seized. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 Mobile phones will come to be seen as an intermediate stage, as people want the use of their hands and to be outside rather than stuck inside. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Technology
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 There will be serious inflation and a surge in Bitcoin's price, followed by the US government trying to freeze or seize Bitcoin with something similar to Executive Order 6102. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 Censorship will increase dramatically if inflation takes hold. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 30 Jun 2022 Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House in the 2022 midterms, and the Senate is a toss-up. Nate Silver · Prediction · 30 Jun 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 30 Jun 2022 If Republicans take control of the House in 2023, they are pretty likely to hold COVID panels or investigations. Nate Silver · Prediction · 30 Jun 2022 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Jim Cramer Prediction 23 Jun 2022 People will one day all spend hundreds of dollars in the Metaverse. Jim Cramer · Prediction · 23 Jun 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Jim Cramer Prediction 23 Jun 2022 The Metaverse operating system will become as important as Apple, making privacy concerns moot. Jim Cramer · Prediction · 23 Jun 2022 Technology
Unresolvable Nate Silver Prediction 12 Jun 2022 Biden will likely get a gun control bill passed but not a voting rights bill. Nate Silver · Prediction · 12 Jun 2022 AI policy and governance
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Ray Kurzweil

Open its page

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

“I’m saying 2029, that six years from now, I think, passing the Turing test will happen sooner.”

Ray Kurzweil, interviewee 2023 Ray Kurzweil: 2022-2025 Updates (transcripts) (LifeArchitect.ai)

AI will pass the Turing test by 2029, possibly sooner.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

deadline 2029 is after 2026-10-30

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “AI will pass the Turing test by 2029, possibly sooner.” (said 2023). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_200460c85a20, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_200460c85a20

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.