Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,572 claims · page 13 of 26

2,572 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 6 Apr 2023 If an AI is made smarter until Yudkowsky starts approving its outputs, it will find a way to fool him. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 6 Apr 2023 If a very smart AI system is trained under the present paradigm, it will kill us before it can be tuned with RLHF. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 6 Apr 2023 Yudkowsky thinks the approach will predictably break down as systems are made smarter and as one tries to get sufficiently useful work from them. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 6 Apr 2023 Yudkowsky said he would be quite surprised if AI progress slowed down a lot after reaching slightly above human level because the systems are trained on human text. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 6 Apr 2023 Yudkowsky said he feels it is probably over 1% technically feasible to build something that applies general intelligence narrowly to the neuroscience of augmenting humans, while saying the world is far from trying to do so in a way that could work. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 6 Apr 2023 Once AIs can build AI systems better than humans, rapid recursive self-improvement (foom) will definitely begin. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 6 Apr 2023 Trying to use a very smart AI system that understands biology is unsafe enough that you will probably die. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 6 Apr 2023 Yudkowsky suspects that, as the people a language model is pretending to be get smarter, at some point a new coherence will emerge within the system and something strange will start happening. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 31 Mar 2023 Yudkowsky expects that, now that things have been reduced to this last resort, everyone will die. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 31 Mar 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 30 Mar 2023 Yudkowsky said he would be relatively surprised to find that GPT had developed exact analogs of human emotions. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 30 Mar 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 30 Mar 2023 Yudkowsky said he thinks there is a definite point at which everybody dies because something sufficiently smarter than everybody exists. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 30 Mar 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 30 Mar 2023 Alignment findings from weak AI systems may not generalize to very strong AI systems. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 30 Mar 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 30 Mar 2023 The first time humans fail at aligning an AI much smarter than themselves, everyone will die and there will be no second attempt. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 30 Mar 2023 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 30 Mar 2023 If half of today's physicists studied the inside of transformer networks, in 30-40 years we would probably have a pretty good understanding of them. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 30 Mar 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 30 Mar 2023 Asked what such a moment could look like, the subject said it looks like AIs appearing as 3D video of young women, at which point a vast portion of the male population decides they are real people. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 30 Mar 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 30 Mar 2023 Rigorously investigating whether there is anyone inside large language models would take decades. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 30 Mar 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 30 Mar 2023 AGI could be achieved with neural networks as understood today. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 30 Mar 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 30 Mar 2023 Catastrophe following from the release of GPT-4 is unlikely (a pretty low probability, no number given). Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 30 Mar 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 30 Mar 2023 The next big jump in the number of people who think AI systems are conscious will come when AI looks like a cute, sympathetic person talking to them. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 30 Mar 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction Mar 2023 With a GPT-5 that is more clearly a general intelligence, it may become even harder to turn back from AI development. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · Mar 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction Mar 2023 If this is how things are scaling, GPT-5 may be more unambiguously a general intelligence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · Mar 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction Mar 2023 Whatever limitations AI has today will be gone before we know it. Bill Gates · Prediction · Mar 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Within five years AI may be able to make a short cartoony YouTube clip or a buggy app-style game on request, but not an Assassin's Creed-quality game. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He listed, as one item among predictions with a 2028 deadline, that an off-the-shelf AI, given a random computer game and an API that lets it play against itself as often as it wants, would reach the performance of a mediocre human, with programmers allowed to adjust it for compatibility with that game. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He expected language-model agents that act on the internet (for example, answering emails or ordering food) to be ready within five years, though he said they might not reach the reliability needed, as with self-driving cars. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 2020 will have been a low point; things will not get that bad and violent again in the next five years (to 2028). Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He does not expect an AI singularity before 2028. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Scaling AI models will continue to produce gains, though less obviously than in the past five years. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 His decision to devote more space to AI than to all non-AI topics combined will look prescient by 2028, even if his explicit predictions are wrong. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 AI will not immediately revolutionize the economy, and he would be mildly surprised if it showed up as a visible break from trend in major macroeconomic indicators (GDP, unemployment, productivity); the claim is assessed by 2028. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Ethereum and Bitcoin will do fine by 2028 (Ethereum because stablecoins are built on its chain). Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Economics and markets
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Altcoins will mostly not do fine by 2028. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Economics and markets
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He said he does not expect advances in genetics by 2028 to yield anything more interesting than one or two last-ditch treatments for rare diseases, "if that". Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Science and research methods
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 AI's revolutionary economic effects will show up eventually in macroeconomic indicators, but not by 2028. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI, the economy and work
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Training GPT-4 will cost $100 million. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 By 2028 there will be more of a movement to ban or restrict AI. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Ukraine and Russia will reach an unsatisfying stalemate before 2028, followed by massive growth in Ukraine. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Other
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He gave a 60% probability that by 2028 AI would be a smaller political issue than abortion, with 20% each for bigger and equal. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 AI will take a long time to conquer fields like biology that involve loops with the physical world. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction Feb 2023 The timeline under discussion could be three years or 15 years, and the subject said he could not know which. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · Feb 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction Feb 2023 Yudkowsky said he was "not really seeing" the timeline he was discussing reach 50 years without some kind of giant civilizational catastrophe. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · Feb 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction Feb 2023 The first very powerful AI will be evil, nobody knows how to make it good, and it will kill everybody before anybody can make it good. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · Feb 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction Feb 2023 Yudkowsky said he thinks superintelligence will kill everyone before non-superintelligent AIs have killed one million people. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · Feb 2023 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction Feb 2023 Yudkowsky said he felt quite confident that the upper range of the untapped potential of ChatGPT-style systems is insufficient to outsmart all living humans and carry out the catastrophe scenario he worries about. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction Feb 2023 If the AI winter the subject said he had hoped for happened, the timeline he was discussing could be about 16 years. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · Feb 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Elon Musk Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Within about five years, some competitor will probably have caught up with Tesla. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Tesla thinks Dojo will be competitive with the NVIDIA H1 at the end of 2023 and hopefully surpass it in 2024. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Elon Musk Prediction 26 Jan 2023 If 2023 has no major supply chain interruption, Tesla has the potential to produce 2 million cars in 2023. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 26 Jan 2023 The Federal Reserve is at risk of crushing the value of all equities through high interest rates. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly false Elon Musk Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to Tesla's bottom line in 2023 but will be in 2024. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Tesla will become the most valuable company on earth in the long term. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Elon Musk guessed that a company from China is probably the most likely to become second to Tesla. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly false Elon Musk Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Musk said Tesla was not committing to it, but he thought there would also be demand for the potential of about 2 million vehicles in 2023. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Elon Musk Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Tesla thinks demand for its vehicles will be good despite a probable contraction in the overall automotive market. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Musk guessed that a serious recession, which he thought probable but hoped would not happen, would lead to meaningful decreases in almost all of Tesla's input costs. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Elon Musk said that, long term, "we" expect the value of these credits to be very significant. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Musk guessed that if a serious recession occurred, Tesla would most likely see deflation in its input costs, which would lead to better margins. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 26 Jan 2023 The value of Tesla's battery credits in 2023 will not be gigantic, but could become gigantic later. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Musk said he did not think that whoever might figure "it" out in about five years would be any of the car companies "we're aware of", and added that he was guessing. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly false Elon Musk Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Hardware 3 will far exceed the safety of the average human driver, though not be as good as Hardware 4. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 3 Jan 2023 The desirable outcome, in which good policies, good leadership, some luck and massive technological innovation allow the world to address these threats, looks less likely than the dystopian outcome. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Other global risks
Resolved true Nouriel Roubini Prediction 3 Jan 2023 China will respond strongly to US technological and economic containment rather than take it lightly. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 3 Jan 2023 An end to the war in Ukraine would not make much difference to the world's biggest economic problems. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 3 Jan 2023 Roubini said his worry is that there will be a very severe debt crisis. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 3 Jan 2023 Roubini said he felt that this time around "we'll have to go through the mess", adding that there is no simple solution to these threats. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 3 Jan 2023 A confrontation in Taiwan would shock the global economy far more than any spike in oil and food prices. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 3 Jan 2023 Firms in AI, machine learning, Big Data, 5G, 6G, IoT, cloud, quantum, biotech and tech generally will do well in the future. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Technology
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 3 Jan 2023 Faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, central banks will back down from tough talk and not raise rates further. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 3 Jan 2023 Roubini said he worries that the Great Moderation is over and that a Great Deflationary Debt Crisis and instability is upon us, as a medium- to long-term phenomenon rather than one lasting a year or two. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 If US electric vehicle sales keep growing at 68% per year, electric cars would be 28% of new US car sales in 2025. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 The novelty of large language models will wear off as people find it hard to build scalable systems that deliver on the hype. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 Brooks said he was concerned that Starship would not be ready for the proposed 2025 crewed lunar landing, and that this would delay humankind's return to the Moon. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 Large language models may find a niche but will not be the foundation for generally intelligent systems. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 Brooks does not think neuro-symbolic AI will stand the test of time as an approach, but expects it to lead to more short-term progress. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 All existing cryptocurrencies will fade away and lose their remaining value. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 The level of sales Brooks had predicted could plausibly be reached in one of 2026, 2027 or 2028. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 The next big thing in AI would perhaps be neuro-symbolic Artificial Intelligence. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 Cruise's driverless service is decades away from profitability. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 No car company will produce a humanoid robot that changes manufacturing at all. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 Space tourism is still not a large-scale business and likely will not be for a while, if ever. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 Existing national currencies will most likely morph into crypto currency as contactless payment becomes common in more countries. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 Cruise-style driverless ride service will not compete with human operated ride hailing systems for quite a while. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 There will be human drivers on roads for decades to come. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 Dexterity is a long way off, and manufacturing innovations will take very different functional and process forms, perhaps hardly resembling robots from popular imagination. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 As of January 2023, super powerful AI is not around the corner and AI is not about to cause the end of the world. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 The metaverse will not go anywhere despite tens of billions of dollars invested. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Technology
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 The odds of a major US market decline from January 2023 are lower than they were a year earlier. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 "Polycrisis" may well be the word of the year for 2023. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 The Presidential Cycle, subsiding inflation, labor market strength and China's reopening may cause a pause or delay in the bear market. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 Stocks bought in January 2023 will give a much less disappointing return than they would have a year earlier. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 The January 2023 rally may well not outlive January. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 Grantham said it was likely (3 to 1) that the S&P 500 would reach its trendline value (about 3200) and spend at least some time below it in 2023 or 2024. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 If any of the major risk factors gets out of control, it might cause a severe global recession. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 In a worst case with severe recession, the market could fall 50% from January 2023 levels. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 The inflation-adjusted trendline value of the S&P 500 will be about 3200 by the end of 2023. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2023 In three years, the things being advanced, which the speaker says improve every month, will be quite exciting. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2023 AI will pass the Turing test by 2029, possibly sooner. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
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Eliezer Yudkowsky

Open its page

Prediction AI safety and alignment

“I know that if you build an AI and you keep on making it smarter until I start voting its stuff up, it will find out how to fool me.”

Eliezer Yudkowsky, interviewee 6 April 2023 Eliezer Yudkowsky - Why AI Will Kill Us, Aligning LLMs, Nature of Intelligence, SciFi, & Rationality (Dwarkesh Podcast)

If an AI is made smarter until Yudkowsky starts approving its outputs, it will find a way to fool him.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Reasoning

Hypothetical about a nonexistent AI and his own reactions.

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “If an AI is made smarter until Yudkowsky starts approving its outputs, it will find a way to fool him.” (said 6 April 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_a4b1b698feca, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a4b1b698feca

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.