| Unresolvable |
Satya Nadella | Prediction |
15 Nov 2023 |
Nadella said he believes firm-level performance (transcribed as "farm level") will start to diverge between those that adopt this technology and those that do not.
Satya Nadella · Prediction · 15 Nov 2023 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Satya Nadella | Prediction |
15 Nov 2023 |
Microsoft's global infrastructure investment and lead in AI will work to its competitive advantage.
Satya Nadella · Prediction · 15 Nov 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Satya Nadella | Prediction |
15 Nov 2023 |
The new capability of using an API to continue text, summarise or make predictions is going to change pretty much every software category.
Satya Nadella · Prediction · 15 Nov 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mixed |
Satya Nadella | Prediction |
15 Nov 2023 |
Nadella said he hoped calendar year 2024 would be the year of classic commercial enterprise deployment and deployment data for AI Copilots.
Satya Nadella · Prediction · 15 Nov 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Nouriel Roubini | Prediction |
10 Nov 2023 |
The Israel-Hamas conflict can escalate into a regional war as Israel campaigns to eliminate Hamas.
Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 10 Nov 2023 |
Other global risks |
| Unresolvable |
Nouriel Roubini | Prediction |
10 Nov 2023 |
If the Gaza war escalates into a regional war, global fallout would include a 1970s-style oil shock, crashing equities and a stagflationary recession.
Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 10 Nov 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Bill Gates | Prediction |
9 Nov 2023 |
In the next few years, AI agents will utterly change how people live their lives, online and off.
Bill Gates · Prediction · 9 Nov 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Bill Gates | Prediction |
9 Nov 2023 |
AI agents will book reservations at the types of restaurants a user would enjoy.
Bill Gates · Prediction · 9 Nov 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Bill Gates | Prediction |
9 Nov 2023 |
AI agents, when asked, will recommend things to do based on a user's interests and propensity for adventure.
Bill Gates · Prediction · 9 Nov 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly false |
Nouriel Roubini | Prediction |
27 Oct 2023 |
US stocks could see a 10% correction (predicted in a Bloomberg interview in early September 2023).
Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 27 Oct 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
26 Oct 2023 |
With more than 60 elections around the world in 2024, the chance that at least one would be swayed by deepfakes is high.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 26 Oct 2023 |
Other global risks |
| Unresolvable |
Nouriel Roubini | Prediction |
18 Oct 2023 |
In a risk scenario, China blockades Taiwan while the US is bogged down in the Ukraine and Middle East wars.
Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 18 Oct 2023 |
Other global risks |
| Unresolvable |
Nouriel Roubini | Prediction |
18 Oct 2023 |
In a risk scenario, Iran unleashes Hezbollah to prevent Israel from destroying Hamas.
Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 18 Oct 2023 |
Other global risks |
| Unresolvable |
Nouriel Roubini | Prediction |
18 Oct 2023 |
Roubini's baseline view was that the Israel-Hamas conflict would stay confined to Israel and Gaza. He named a risk scenario in which Iran would unleash Hezbollah to stop Israel from destroying Hamas.
Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 18 Oct 2023 |
Other global risks |
| Unresolvable |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
16 Oct 2023 |
Any deceleration of AI development will cost lives.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 16 Oct 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
28 Sep 2023 |
Zuckerberg said he thinks there will be uses for both expressive and photorealistic avatars over time, and added that he does not know what the balance between them will be.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Sep 2023 |
Technology |
| Not yet due |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
28 Sep 2023 |
Zuckerberg said he thinks that, maybe by the end of this decade, people could walk into a room and see as many holograms as physical objects.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Sep 2023 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
28 Sep 2023 |
Zuckerberg said he does not think people will work with a single AI in the future, and that he thinks people will want a variety of AIs.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Sep 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
28 Sep 2023 |
Zuckerberg said he thinks AI will make non-player characters (NPCs) in games a lot better.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Sep 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
28 Sep 2023 |
Meta's Quest 3 will be the first mainstream mixed reality product.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Sep 2023 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
28 Sep 2023 |
Zuckerberg said he thinks Quest 3 is going to be the first mixed reality device that millions of people get.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Sep 2023 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
28 Sep 2023 |
Zuckerberg said he thinks that blending the digital and physical worlds will make it possible to embody AIs. His example was a future meeting where an AI team member takes part alongside people who are there in person and people who appear as holograms.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Sep 2023 |
Technology |
| Mostly false |
Nate Silver | Prediction |
8 Sep 2023 |
Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning.
Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 |
Other |
| Mixed |
Nate Silver | Prediction |
8 Sep 2023 |
Most US voters will not start paying attention to the 2024 presidential election until nine months to a year after September 2023.
Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly false |
Nate Silver | Prediction |
8 Sep 2023 |
If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024.
Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
2 Sep 2023 |
Andreessen guessed that within a couple of years of 2023, the dominant discussion about AI would be the United States or the West versus China.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly false |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
2 Sep 2023 |
The EU may pass a law as soon as October 2023 that effectively bans AI inside the EU.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
2 Sep 2023 |
There will be Chinese AI systems that embody Communist ideology.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
2 Sep 2023 |
AI will be one of the key technologies shaping the world for hundreds of years, amid a new Cold War dynamic between the US and China.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Not yet due |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
Control of powerful AI models five years from now will involve substantial involvement of a government or assembly of government bodies.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
Danger from AI may lead to unilateral, multilateral or government-enforced decisions not to scale as fast as possible, which Anthropic supports.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Own records only |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
Anthropic's security measures will defend against most attacks and against a less determined state-level actor.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
Powerful, agentic AI models will be built.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
Dario Amodei expects the money spent on the largest AI models to rise by something like a factor of 100.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
Amodei guessed that reinforcement learning will become a thing for models taking actions in the world, with all the power and safety issues that come with it.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
AI developers could run out of training data, which would limit scaling.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
If China sees AI as a source of national power, it will try the most effective approach, which could lead it toward AGI.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
Running out of training data will not be a blocker to AI scaling.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved true |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
In a year or two (from 2023), AI model consciousness might become a very real concern.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
In Dario Amodei's view, AI models would keep getting better across the board; he said he did not see any area where the models were very weak or not starting to make progress.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Not yet due |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
AI models that act like a generally well-educated human in an hour-long conversation could exist within two or three years of August 2023.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
AI models will undertake extended tasks.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
Dario Amodei said it seemed likely to him that AI systems will first speed up human productivity, then equal it, and at some point become in some meaningful sense the main contributor to scientific progress, though he expected the details to be different from what people expect.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
AI models will not have enough autonomy within two years to raise alignment concerns, though that may not be far behind.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
The models' current level of performance, which the speaker graded as a B or B minus, will change with scaling.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
Dario Amodei does not expect RL training for longer-horizon tasks to require a substantial amount of additional compute.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Not yet due |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
Amodei said that the trend from earlier models to state-of-the-art models shows every sign that, two or three years after August 2023, there will be a real problem.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
Serious danger from scaled AI models will first come from misuse, such as biorisk, rather than misalignment.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
Dario Amodei said he personally thinks it is very unlikely that AI scaling laws will just stop.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
5 Jul 2023 |
Corporate profit margins have already fallen a decent amount but could fall considerably further.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 5 Jul 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
5 Jul 2023 |
Grantham's guess was that within a year or two of mid-2023 there would be time for a fairly traditional bubble losing air, a fairly traditional recession, a fairly traditional decline in profit margins and some grief in the stock markets.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 5 Jul 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
21 Jun 2023 |
Humanity will survive large language models.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 21 Jun 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Yann LeCun | Prediction |
20 Jun 2023 |
Objective-Driven AI architectures are the future of AI.
Yann LeCun · Prediction · 20 Jun 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
Freedom-oriented regimes will generally want to make the US bet on AI.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
It is entirely possible that fundamentally better neural network architectures will now be invented.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
Authoritarian-oriented regimes will be tempted to take the Chinese path on AI.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
Many countries around the world will have to make a fundamental choice between US and Chinese AI.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
Which AI bet (US or China) a country takes will help tilt its political system in the future, as AI shapes its politics and culture.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
There may be decades of architectural breakthroughs still ahead in AI.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mixed |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
Andreessen said he was pretty confident that within roughly two years of June 2023, AI systems' limited persistent memory across sessions would be a solved problem.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
Andreessen said he thought the rate of AI technological improvement from mid-2023 onward would be very rapid.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
Countries like Israel will have their own AI capabilities, but much of what they have will be derived from the United States.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Ørsted | Prediction |
7 Jun 2023 |
Ørsted's long-standing supplier relationships will ensure it capacity at competitive prices.
Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due |
Ørsted | Prediction |
7 Jun 2023 |
Ørsted is on track to outperform its previous EBITDA and ROCE targets for 2020-2027.
Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due |
Ørsted | Prediction |
7 Jun 2023 |
Ørsted is on track to outperform its previous average ROCE target of 11-12% for 2020-2027, now expecting about 15% over 2020-2027.
Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due |
Ørsted | Prediction |
7 Jun 2023 |
Ørsted's gross investment for 2020-2027, previously expected at about DKK 350 billion, is trending higher at DKK 380 billion.
Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due |
Ørsted | Prediction |
7 Jun 2023 |
Ørsted now expects EBITDA from offshore and onshore assets in operation to grow at a 15% CAGR over 2020-2027, versus the previous target of about 12%.
Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due |
Ørsted | Prediction |
7 Jun 2023 |
Ørsted is on track to reach its science-based targets of 98% carbon emissions reductions (scopes 1 and 2) in 2025 and net-zero for the full value chain in 2040.
Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
6 Jun 2023 |
Artificial intelligence will not destroy the world, and may instead save it.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 6 Jun 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Yann LeCun | Prediction |
Jun 2023 |
H-JEPA trained with regularized methods may be a starting point for predictive world models capable of hierarchical planning under uncertainty, a breakthrough for autonomous AI.
Yann LeCun · Prediction · Jun 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Yann LeCun | Prediction |
Jun 2023 |
Self-supervised learning is the most likely approach to learning world representations, since supervised and reinforcement learning require too many samples or trials.
Yann LeCun · Prediction · Jun 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Yann LeCun | Prediction |
Jun 2023 |
Regularized methods seem more promising than contrastive methods for training future energy-based models, because they are less likely to fall victim to the curse of dimensionality.
Yann LeCun · Prediction · Jun 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Yann LeCun | Prediction |
Jun 2023 |
Contrastive methods are unlikely to lead to future autonomous intelligence because of their unfavorable scaling with data dimension.
Yann LeCun · Prediction · Jun 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Yann LeCun | Prediction |
Jun 2023 |
Probabilistic models may also fail on the path to autonomous intelligence.
Yann LeCun · Prediction · Jun 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction |
24 May 2023 |
An extralegal confiscation of private property will take place to remit stolen funds to a cash-hungry federal government, with tech giants described as a "systemic risk" to the crypto industry.
Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 24 May 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved false |
Jim Cramer | Prediction |
24 May 2023 |
US politicians will cause investors to lose more money as the May 2023 debt ceiling negotiations drag on.
Jim Cramer · Prediction · 24 May 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved false |
Jim Cramer | Prediction |
24 May 2023 |
If the market follows the 2011 debt ceiling pattern, US stocks will fall about 12% from their level on 2023-05-24 to the bottom.
Jim Cramer · Prediction · 24 May 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Ray Kurzweil | Prediction |
5 May 2023 |
Parties that agree to a pause in AI research more powerful than GPT-4 may fall far behind corporations or nations that do not.
Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 5 May 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Demis Hassabis | Prediction |
20 Apr 2023 |
In the coming years AI, and ultimately AGI, has the potential to drive one of the greatest social, economic and scientific transformations in history.
Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 20 Apr 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Demis Hassabis | Prediction |
20 Apr 2023 |
The work of the combined Google DeepMind unit will create the next wave of world-changing breakthroughs.
Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 20 Apr 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Demis Hassabis | Prediction |
20 Apr 2023 |
Combining DeepMind and Brain will accelerate progress towards a world where AI helps solve humanity's biggest challenges.
Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 20 Apr 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
7 Apr 2023 |
Yudkowsky says that he and many other researchers expect the most likely result of building a superhumanly smart AI under anything remotely like current circumstances is that literally everyone on Earth will die.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 7 Apr 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
7 Apr 2023 |
The likely result of humanity facing an opposed superhuman intelligence is a total loss for humanity.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 7 Apr 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
7 Apr 2023 |
The gap between how seriously AI risk is taken and how seriously it needed to be taken will not be bridged in six months.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 7 Apr 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
7 Apr 2023 |
A sufficiently intelligent AI will not stay confined to computers for long.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 7 Apr 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
7 Apr 2023 |
Solving safety of superhuman intelligence, in the sense of not killing everyone, could take at least about 30 years (half of the 60+ years AI took to reach today's capabilities).
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 7 Apr 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
7 Apr 2023 |
Without precision and preparation, the most likely outcome of building superhuman AI is an AI that does not do what we want and does not care for us or sentient life.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 7 Apr 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
6 Apr 2023 |
AI will not reach a distinct human level; it will be somewhere around human but not like a human.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
6 Apr 2023 |
Yudkowsky said he thinks that at some point, once a system knows itself especially well and is able to rewrite itself, it crystallizes, unless one specifically chooses not to.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
6 Apr 2023 |
Yudkowsky said he is pretty sure that AI systems that are smart enough will no longer need giant training runs.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly false |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
6 Apr 2023 |
Paul Christiano will probably win his forecast disagreement with Yudkowsky on an AI getting IMO gold by 2025, with prediction-market odds then running around 30%.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved false |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
6 Apr 2023 |
The current AI developers will not try the alignment approach he described (filtering training data to nice examples and training on it).
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
6 Apr 2023 |
AI systems will never be exactly human, imitating humans imperfectly in some ways while exceeding them in speed.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
6 Apr 2023 |
Yudkowsky worries that if researchers understood what goes on inside GPT-4, they would know how to rebuild it much smaller.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
6 Apr 2023 |
Yudkowsky said he does not think we will live in the "sane world" that would "shut it all down and work on human intelligence enhancement", and that he thinks we are all going to die.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
6 Apr 2023 |
At some point AI systems will become smart enough to build their own AI systems better than humans can.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
6 Apr 2023 |
Yudkowsky said he was not over 50% confident that "they" would actually carry out the "shut it all down" option.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
6 Apr 2023 |
AI alignment will not be solved within a few years.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
6 Apr 2023 |
Yudkowsky said he would expect that, even if a full AI shutdown were adopted, those responsible would have no exit strategy until the world ended, though he added that perhaps he underestimates them.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
6 Apr 2023 |
GPT-5 will not end the world, with more than 50% of Yudkowsky's probability on that outcome.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |