Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,625 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 Altman said GPT-5 might be the pivotal moment in AI development, adding that he did not know. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 Compute will become maybe the most precious commodity in the world. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 Sam Altman said he expects that by the end of this decade, and possibly somewhat sooner, there will be quite capable AI systems that people look at and say are really remarkable. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 By the end of this decade, possibly sooner, there will be quite capable AI systems that people find truly remarkable. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 Altman said he did not think OpenAI would set a precedent here, and that he would heavily discourage others from doing that. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 Altman said it looks like the approach of training on two-dimensional data is going to go surprisingly far, while saying he did not want to speculate much about which limits it would overcome. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 OpenAI can build a great business that pays for its compute needs without ads. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 AI will get caught up in left-versus-right political wars. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 Generative video and image models will keep getting better. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 Many videos, maybe most, will use AI tools in production but remain fundamentally driven by a person. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 Altman said he thinks there will be a new paradigm for slower, sequential thinking in AI systems. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 Compute will become the currency of the future. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 Compute will become maybe the most precious commodity in the world. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 The best practitioners of programming will use multiple tools, including natural language and writing C. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 Altman said he expects the improvement from GPT-4 to GPT-5 to be the same as the improvement from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 Compute will become the currency of the future. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 Sam Altman does not expect the first AGI to be able to answer those questions, even as yes or no, though he said they would be very high on his list if it could. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 Maybe some people will program entirely in natural language. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 Relatively soon, people will look back at GPT-4 as they now look back at GPT-3. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 Intelligence will become more like energy, with world compute use best described as a function of price. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 AI model hallucination will not be fully solved in 2024, though upcoming versions will be much better. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 The next major AI breakthrough will come from industry, and such information will disseminate extremely quickly. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 The type of LLMs used today will not be able to make the leap the interviewer asked about, with the main reason given being the way LLMs are trained, by predicting masked words in text. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 In LeCun's opinion, the blueprint of future AI systems (transcribed as "data systems") is that they will plan their answers by optimization before turning them into text, a process he described as Turing complete (transcribed as "turning complete"). Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 World models most probably cannot be built by predicting words, because language is low-bandwidth and does not carry enough information. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 LeCun bets that future AI world-model systems will be JEPA-like architectures rather than generative models, adding that the future will tell. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Keeping AI systems locked up as proprietary would potentially lead to a future where a few companies control all of our information diet. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 AI will not cause mass unemployment, according to economists LeCun cites. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 As AI systems are made more intelligent, developers will also learn to add guardrails so they behave properly. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 AI assistants will amplify human intelligence. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Joint-embedding world models could possibly enable car driving, but it will take a while to get to that point. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Bad actors will not have AI technology superior to that of good actors. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Search engines will increasingly be replaced by dialogue systems that answer questions and perhaps point to appropriate references. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Many different groups will build advanced AI, and some will succeed at making controllable, safe systems with proper guardrails. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 He thinks the next decade will be really interesting for robots. He said the robotics industry has been waiting 10 to 20 years to emerge without really doing so, apart from pre-programmed behaviour. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Keeping AI systems locked up for security reasons would lead to a future in which people's information diet is controlled by a small number of companies with proprietary systems. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 LeCun said he thinks that over the next few years there will be many AI systems with planning capability, and that their blueprint will be extremely different from autoregressive LLMs. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Not yet due Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Building AI systems with world models, planning and hierarchical representations like the human brain will take at least a decade, probably much more. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 AI will bring a gradual shift between professions rather than mass unemployment. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Designing AI guardrails will not be solved by a single silver bullet or a mathematical proof of safety. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Progress toward advanced AI will be continuous rather than a single event. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Future AI systems will not have a desire to dominate, because that desire would have to be hardwired into them. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Advanced AI systems will not become a species that competes with humans. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Millions of humanoid robots will eventually be walking around, though not soon. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 In future, people will interact with persuasive bad actors through their own AI assistants, which will be as smart as the actors' systems. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 LeCun said there is ample evidence that generative models will not be able to learn good representations of the real world. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Without world models that let systems learn how the world works, there will be no significant progress in robotics. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 AI safety guardrails will be developed through a progressive, iterative design process. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Training on large data sets may turn out to be necessary for world-model systems to have emergent properties like LLMs. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 World models for predicting how the world evolves cannot be built with generative models. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Future AI systems that can plan and reason will not rely on "regressive prediction of tokens" but on something "more akin to inference of little variables" in what used to be called probabilistic or graphical models. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Human-level AI (AGI) will not arrive as a single discrete event. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Before reaching human-level AI, we will first have systems with the characteristics of human-level intelligence but at the intelligence level of a cat or parrot. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 The French government will not accept its citizens' digital information diet being controlled by three US west coast companies. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Every interaction people have with the digital world will be mediated by AI systems and AI assistants. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Whenever an AI breakthrough occurs, it will be widely disseminated very quickly. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 The vast majority of AI systems will be built on top of open source platforms. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 If some AI goes rogue, well-controlled AI systems will be used against it. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 In the future, every interaction people have with the digital world will be mediated by their AI assistant. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Humanity will not be exposed to a single rogue AI that kills everyone. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Progress toward human-level AI will be gradual. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 7 Mar 2024 A trend that looks like an intelligence test will soon start excluding some actual humans, if it hasn't already, and that will lead to an unpleasant conversation. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 7 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Mixed Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 5 Mar 2024 If a rival AI developer beats GPT-4 on general intelligence, OpenAI will be forced to release GPT-4.5. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 5 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 5 Mar 2024 AI will appear more helpful, being better at predicting what humans want to see, as AI becomes more capable. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 5 Mar 2024 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 28 Feb 2024 Demis Hassabis said he thinks the quickest and most plausible route to AGI is to use existing world knowledge collected from sources like the Web. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 28 Feb 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 28 Feb 2024 Self-play ideas could be used to automatically test boundary conditions of new AI systems. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 28 Feb 2024 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 28 Feb 2024 Large predictive world models are a necessary but probably insufficient component of an AGI system. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 28 Feb 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 28 Feb 2024 Demis Hassabis's bet is that the final AGI system will include large multimodal models, but that they probably won't be enough alone and will need added planning and search on top. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 28 Feb 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 28 Feb 2024 In Hassabis's opinion, the AI systems around at the time were not dangerous, but in a few years they might have the potential to be. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 28 Feb 2024 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 28 Feb 2024 Hassabis said that DeepMind, started in 2010, was conceived as a 20-year project, which points to about 2030, and that he thinks it is on track. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 28 Feb 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 28 Feb 2024 AI systems could become quite good at designing and helping build future versions of themselves. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 28 Feb 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 28 Feb 2024 Hassabis said he thinks Google DeepMind will have the most compute by far of any research lab in 2024. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 28 Feb 2024 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Demis Hassabis Prediction 28 Feb 2024 Hassabis said he thought the next versions of these systems, over the next year to 18 months, might have some contextual understanding of the user's environment through a camera, phone or glasses. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 28 Feb 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 28 Feb 2024 Once AGI exists, it could speed up further AI research, depending on what society uses early AGI systems for. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 28 Feb 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 28 Feb 2024 Hassabis said he would not be surprised if AGI-like systems existed within the next decade. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 28 Feb 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 28 Feb 2024 Demis Hassabis said he thinks "our systems" are going to start to understand the physics of the real world better. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 28 Feb 2024 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 24 Jan 2024 If no trade barriers are established, Chinese car companies will pretty much demolish most other car companies in the world. Elon Musk · Prediction · 24 Jan 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 24 Jan 2024 Musk said he sees a path, which he called very difficult and not a sure thing, where Tesla could one day be the most valuable company in the world if it executes on its new projects. Elon Musk · Prediction · 24 Jan 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 24 Jan 2024 Musk said he thinks margins will be good if interest rates come down quickly, while noting that this is difficult to predict precisely. Elon Musk · Prediction · 24 Jan 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 24 Jan 2024 With the right architectural decisions, it is possible that Tesla could in the future have more compute than everyone else combined. Elon Musk · Prediction · 24 Jan 2024 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 24 Jan 2024 Musk said he sees Tesla ultimately delivering something like a quarter million Cybertrucks a year in North America, maybe more, as long as the price is affordable. Elon Musk · Prediction · 24 Jan 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 24 Jan 2024 Musk said he thinks Optimus has the potential to far exceed the value of everything else at Tesla combined. Elon Musk · Prediction · 24 Jan 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 24 Jan 2024 If Tesla executes very well, it could become the most valuable company in the world. Elon Musk · Prediction · 24 Jan 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2024 Flying cars (eVTOL air taxis) will not become ubiquitous. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2024 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2024 There may be another AI winter, and perhaps a full-scale tech winter, just around the corner. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved false Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2024 After its first crewed test flight in April 2024, Boeing's Starliner is expected to fly with a crew once a year. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2024 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2024 The electric air taxi shown in the NYC flight will not become a personally owned vehicle for the masses. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2024 Regular weekly suborbital tourist flights by 2026 are doubtful. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2024 Humanoid robots will not play any significant role for at least another 25 years from 2024. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2024 Brooks said his estimate that electric vehicles would reach 30% of US car sales by 2027 is very much at risk, since reaching it from 7.2% in 2023 would need two more full doublings while manufacturers are slowing things down. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2024 The return to the Lunar surface will be significantly delayed, and revenue-producing Starship flights will be well behind schedule. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2024 Technology
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2024 Bill Ackman, writing as "we", said he expects Restaurant Brands' Executive Chairman Patrick Doyle and CEO Josh Kobza to deliver an even better outcome at RBI than Doyle achieved at Domino's. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2024 Pershing Square's asymmetric investments could become an even more important contributor to returns over time. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2024 Reducing PSH's performance fees will produce higher returns, lower fees on the KID document and make PSH a more attractive investment. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 30 Dec 2023 Starship will make life as we know it multiplanetary for the first time in Earth's roughly 4.5 billion year existence. Elon Musk · Prediction · 30 Dec 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 26 Dec 2023 AI should be hugely deflationary over the next twenty-five years. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 26 Dec 2023 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 26 Dec 2023 Capital should be scarce for a while, current measures of GDP and the economy will be less relevant, and goods and services should be in great abundance as a result of AI. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 26 Dec 2023 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 14 Dec 2023 Digital-first primary and chronic care overseen by human doctors at $5 per month will be possible for every US citizen within a few years. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 14 Dec 2023 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 14 Dec 2023 Khosla is optimistic that the human experience will be made only richer by AI. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 14 Dec 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 13 Dec 2023 AI-augmented management will help managers objectively assess employee performance, giving employees more flexibility. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 13 Dec 2023 AI, the economy and work
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Sam Altman

Open its page

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

“Maybe five will be the pivotal moment.”

Sam Altman, OpenAI CEO, interview answer 18 March 2024 Transcript for Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI (Lex Fridman)

Altman said GPT-5 might be the pivotal moment in AI development, adding that he did not know.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Reasoning

'Pivotal moment' is subjective and has no horizon.

Cite this claim

Sam Altman, “Altman said GPT-5 might be the pivotal moment in AI development, adding that he did not know.” (said 18 March 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_21a79bf0e0c5, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_21a79bf0e0c5

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.