2,572 claims · page 10 of 26
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 9 Jul 2024 | Humans will be able to interface their brains wirelessly to the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 9 Jul 2024 | Major AI companies releasing something causing great harm will face a lot of liability, motivating them to avoid it. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 | AI policy and governance |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 9 Jul 2024 | The singularity will happen in 2045. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 9 Jul 2024 | If solar and wind energy keeps doubling every four years, all of our energy would come from those sources in about 10 years, and it will keep getting cheaper. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 9 Jul 2024 | Body parts will be recreated, with progress much faster than before. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 9 Jul 2024 | This exponential growth can continue for a very long time. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 9 Jul 2024 | AI-generated fakes, probably timed right before the election, are probably the biggest problem AI presents for the 2024 election. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 9 Jul 2024 | Humanity will reach longevity escape velocity. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 | Other global risks |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 9 Jul 2024 | In the 2030s we will be able to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide being created. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 | Other global risks |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 9 Jul 2024 | AGI will arrive within five years, probably sooner. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 9 Jul 2024 | Between 2029 and 2035, scientific progress will give back a full year of life expectancy per year. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 | Other global risks |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 30 Jun 2024 | The RN (Le Pen's party) will win an absolute majority in the 2024 French parliamentary elections, with 60% probability as the baseline scenario. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 30 Jun 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 14 Jun 2024 | The next wave of AI will be robotics, where AI also has a physical world model. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 14 Jun 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 14 Jun 2024 | AI token generators (AI factories) will be the factories of a new industrial revolution. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 14 Jun 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Steven Pinker | Prediction | 13 Jun 2024 | Commonwealth Fusion Systems' scalable fusion designs will come on line within a decade of June 2024. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 13 Jun 2024 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Prediction | 13 May 2024 | Melinda French Gates will have a huge impact in her future philanthropic work after leaving the Gates Foundation. Bill Gates · Prediction · 13 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Prediction | 13 May 2024 | The Gates Foundation will keep making substantial progress on its mission of a world where every person can live a healthy, productive life. Bill Gates · Prediction · 13 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 5 May 2024 | The donor's scholarship program may end up supporting 150 students. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 5 May 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 5 May 2024 | Buffett said he thought that, with present US fiscal policies, something has to give and higher taxes are quite likely. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 5 May 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 5 May 2024 | Utah is very likely to treat Berkshire Hathaway Energy fairly on utility rates or compensation if it moves to public power. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 5 May 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 5 May 2024 | Buffett said he did not know, but his best speculation was that US debt will remain acceptable for a very long time because there is not much alternative. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 5 May 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 5 May 2024 | If anything happened to Buffett, Berkshire would be working extremely well the next day. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 5 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 5 May 2024 | The next major financial crisis will occur within a century, though timing is unknown. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 5 May 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 5 May 2024 | Over the next century no company will be dramatically better than others in returns. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 5 May 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 5 May 2024 | With a million dollars, an investor who studies small companies could earn 50% a year. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 5 May 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 5 May 2024 | Buffett said he did not think "we" would end up with a better system, speaking in the context of Berkshire's real estate brokerage business. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 5 May 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 5 May 2024 | Buffett, who said he does not really know anything about AI, said it will affect anything labor-intensive and can create an enormous amount of leisure time. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 5 May 2024 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 5 May 2024 | Solar will never be the only source of electricity, barring real breakthroughs in storage. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 5 May 2024 | Technology |
| Not yet due | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 5 May 2024 | Berkshire's CEO succession is settled for the next 20 years unless something untoward happens. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 5 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 4 May 2024 | If anything happened to Buffett, Berkshire would work extremely well the next day. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 4 May 2024 | The electric utility industry will never be nearly as good a business as the other kinds of businesses Berkshire owns. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 4 May 2024 | The business he described will still be around 100 years from now. It will not be the best growth business in the world in that period, but it will be essential. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 4 May 2024 | Buffett said that Greg will do something about a problem he described, which he said he and Charlie would not have acted on, not because they did not know it should be done but because they were doing so well themselves. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 4 May 2024 | Buffett said he thought that if Utah moved to public power, it would compensate Berkshire fairly. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 4 May 2024 | Saying that he does not really know anything about AI, Buffett suggested that AI will affect anything that is labor-intensive and that it can create an enormous amount of leisure time. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 | AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 4 May 2024 | Buffett says Berkshire's CEO succession problem is solved for the next 20 years unless something untoward happens. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 4 May 2024 | Apple will very likely still be Berkshire's largest common stock holding at the end of 2024, despite Berkshire having sold some shares. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 4 May 2024 | Buffett said he feels very comfortable that the post-Buffett decision will be made by Berkshire's board, which he said has loads of brainpower and a dedication to an unusual institution and will figure things out. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 4 May 2024 | Buffett says it may end up being 150 people who are able to pursue different lives. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 4 May 2024 | Utah is very likely to treat Berkshire's utility business fairly, including on granting appropriate rates. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 4 May 2024 | Buffett said he did not know, but his best speculation was that US government debt will remain acceptable for a very long time because there is not much alternative. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 4 May 2024 | No company will be dramatically better than others in returns over the next century. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 4 May 2024 | Given present US fiscal policies, higher taxes are quite likely in the future. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 4 May 2024 | Someone will invest hundreds of billions, perhaps trillions, of dollars in electric power, via public power or private enterprise. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 4 May 2024 | Solar will never be the only source of electricity, barring real breakthroughs in energy storage. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 18 Apr 2024 | AI model scaling is likely enough to keep going that investing tens or hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure is worth it, on the assumption that it continues. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 18 Apr 2024 | A 70B model trained with the Llama-3 architecture can keep improving with more data. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 18 Apr 2024 | A runaway AI intelligence scenario is not particularly likely. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 18 Apr 2024 | A 1GW data center will be built eventually, but not in 2025 (next year). Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 18 Apr 2024 | Many people will use off-the-shelf open models, while some bad-faith actors will try to strip out safeguards. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 18 Apr 2024 | AI is unlikely to go from somewhat intelligent to extremely intelligent overnight because of physical constraints. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 18 Apr 2024 | ChatGPT and image diffusion models will clearly affect how people interact with every app. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 18 Apr 2024 | Zuckerberg said he thinks AI will probably surpass people at most skills at some point, depending on how powerful the models are. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 18 Apr 2024 | People will not interact with just one singular AI; each business will want its own AI representing its interests. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 18 Apr 2024 | AI scaling will run into energy constraints before capital investment stops being worth it. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Not yet due | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 12 Apr 2024 | By 2026 to 2028, the compute needed for AI will reach levels the semiconductor industry struggles to supply. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Apr 2024 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 12 Apr 2024 | AI's impact may also show up first in the fields under discussion. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Apr 2024 | AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 12 Apr 2024 | If a pause in AI development of one year were needed in 2027, it would be feasible. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Apr 2024 | AI policy and governance |
| Not yet due | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 12 Apr 2024 | AI Safety Level ASL-3 capabilities may arrive this year or next (2024 or 2025), and ASL-4 between 2025 and 2028. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Apr 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 12 Apr 2024 | Within three to eighteen months, AI models will perform end-to-end tasks for users, which will fundamentally change how people view AI. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Apr 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 12 Apr 2024 | Amodei said he thinks the cost of training AI models may reach $5 billion to $10 billion in 2025 to 2026. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Apr 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 12 Apr 2024 | A ten-year pause in AI development would be very difficult because other countries would keep developing these models, people might break the law, and the economic pressure would be enormous. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Apr 2024 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 12 Apr 2024 | If human-AI collaboration does not arise naturally, it will eventually be achieved. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Apr 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 12 Apr 2024 | AI systems may fundamentally change industries and professions one after another, in hard-to-predict ways. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Apr 2024 | AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due | Peter Thiel | Prediction | Apr 2024 | AI models will be able to solve all US Math Olympiad problems within three to five years, as people told Thiel. Peter Thiel · Prediction · Apr 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Peter Thiel | Prediction | Apr 2024 | Thiel said his intuition was that AI would seem much worse for math-oriented people than for verbal (word) people. Peter Thiel · Prediction · Apr 2024 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | Apr 2024 | Reliable, trustworthy AI is achievable, but may require going back to the drawing board. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Apr 2024 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | Apr 2024 | If GenAI enthusiasm dwindles and valuations plummet, AI and LLMs will not disappear and will remain tools for statistical approximation. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Apr 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | Apr 2024 | LLMs' place may be smaller, and LLMs on their own may never live up to the 2023 expectations. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Apr 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 31 Mar 2024 | If OpenAI releases a truly mindblowing GPT-5 in 2024, the generative AI bubble will not burst soon. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 31 Mar 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 31 Mar 2024 | Marcus doubted that a mindblowing GPT model would be released in 2024. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 31 Mar 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 31 Mar 2024 | If OpenAI releases a truly mindblowing GPT-5 in 2024, hype around generative AI will increase further. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 31 Mar 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 31 Mar 2024 | Marcus said he would be truly astonished if hallucinations in large language models were brought down to human expert levels by the end of 2024. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 31 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 31 Mar 2024 | If OpenAI releases a truly mindblowing GPT-5 in 2024, generative AI will live for another day, perhaps imploding only later when people realize there is no killer app to justify the increasingly high costs. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 31 Mar 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 31 Mar 2024 | If no company releases a true quantum leap addressing reliability, hallucination, data leakage and security by the end of 2024, the generative AI bubble may start to pop by around March 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 31 Mar 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 31 Mar 2024 | GPT-5 is likely to be even more expensive to train and operate than GPT-4. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 31 Mar 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 31 Mar 2024 | Generative AI will still exist and find some use, but valuations and excitement may dissipate, returning only once genuine advances are made. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 31 Mar 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Ultimately there will be more and more ways of extending human longevity. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | AI's added intelligence comes from people and will make humans smarter. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Large language models will enable people to earn enough to live and spend time on things they enjoy. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Humans will merge with computation and become so intelligent that it cannot be described now. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | The part of human intelligence that comes from machines will be backed up and recoverable. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Humans will be able to live indefinitely without aging, continuing to look as they do now. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | Science and research methods |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Within five years AI coding ability will be as good as humans'; currently it is not quite as good. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Eventually people will be far better off than today despite job disruption from AI. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | In five years one large language model will know everything any human being knows. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Human longevity will increase rather than decrease, though not guaranteed. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | Science and research methods |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Kurzweil said he thinks humanity will reach longevity escape velocity in five years, by 2029. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | Science and research methods |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Within a few years AI will be able to emulate the intelligence any human being can have. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | By 2029 scientific progress will give people back a full year of life expectancy for each year lived. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | Science and research methods |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | After 2029, people will gain back more than a year of longevity per year, effectively going backwards in time regarding longevity. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | If Yudkowsky's policy proposals are not adopted and a distorted version is used to justify government takeover, a government rather than a private company might kill everyone on Earth. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | AI policy and governance |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Kurzweil predicts that in five years (by 2029) one large language model will know everything that any human being knows. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Despite job losses to automation, people will continue to be better off. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 27 Mar 2024 | Civilization must back off from building artificial superintelligence or it will die; there is no other outcome. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 27 Mar 2024 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 27 Mar 2024 | No institution on Earth can solve AI alignment in time, and extremely likely none can solve it at all. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 27 Mar 2024 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 27 Mar 2024 | If today's civilization is allowed to build superintelligence, everyone will die. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 27 Mar 2024 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 26 Mar 2024 | If a government's privileged-access AI turns into an artificial superintelligence, humanity will be killed. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 26 Mar 2024 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 19 Mar 2024 | As more legal immigrants enter the US, more of them will likely vote Democrat. Elon Musk · Prediction · 19 Mar 2024 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | Altman said GPT-5 might be the pivotal moment in AI development, adding that he did not know. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
“we’ll be able to interface our brain wirelessly to the cloud, which is growing exponentially.”
Ray Kurzweil, futurist, interviewee 9 July 2024 'The Singularity is Nearer,' Says Futurist Ray Kurzweil (Science Friday)
Humans will be able to interface their brains wirelessly to the cloud.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Reasoning
No horizon was given, so the prediction could still come true at any time.
Cite this claim
Ray Kurzweil, “Humans will be able to interface their brains wirelessly to the cloud.” (said 9 July 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_288f426ff2d4, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_288f426ff2d4
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.