Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

6,750 claims · page 52 of 68

6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Society will delay adopting level 4 and 5 autonomy, at the cost of more lives lost, rather than accept many deaths caused by autonomous driving systems. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Level 4 autonomy may appear on some delivery vehicles in dense urban environments. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 11 Jan 2017 Thiel said he had watched the first season of HBO's Silicon Valley, that the character based on him died, and that he liked the character. Peter Thiel · Factual · 11 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 The subject gave an 80% probability that no country currently in the Euro or EU would announce a new plan to leave in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 The situation in Israel will look more worse than better at the end of 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other global risks
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander will take the job he is currently expecting to take. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 50% probability that he would be involved in at least one published or accepted-to-publish research paper by the end of 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Marine Le Pen will not be elected President of France in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 ISIS will no longer exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other global risks
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander makes predictions at the beginning of every year. Scott Alexander · Factual · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 50% probability that he would get at least one article published on a major site such as Huffington Post, Vox or New Statesman in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that he would not score at or above the 95th percentile when he got his 2017 PRITE scores back. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander will attend the Bay Area Solstice in the coming year (2017). Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 A significant number of EMDrive skeptics will not become convinced it works during 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 There is an 80% chance that construction on the Mexican border wall, beyond existing barriers, will begin in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 There will be no revolt against the Chinese Communist Party of Tiananmen Square scale or greater in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other global risks
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 No announcement of a genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for one will occur in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that by the end of 2017 SSC would have no co-bloggers with more than 5 posts. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander will pass his Boards in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that fewer refugees would be admitted in 2017 than in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Mostly false Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 70% chance that Keith Ellison would be chosen as the new DNC chair. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 1 Jan 2017 Sam Altman said he expected that someday, when the history of YC is written, people will talk about its software as one of its secret weapons. Sam Altman · Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 YC Continuity is YC's growth-stage fund. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 1 Jan 2017 The trend of the companies described keeping their data, computation and hiring advantages and buying promising startups is unlikely to reverse without antitrust action. Sam Altman · Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 1 Jan 2017 In 2017 the total valuation of companies that have gone through YC will surpass $100 billion, absent a macroeconomic meltdown. Sam Altman · Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 In 2016 about 22.3% of companies YC funded had a woman on the founding team and about 12.5% of founders funded were women. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 1 Jan 2017 Sam Altman said he expected YC's flagship program to significantly strengthen over the course of 2017 and beyond. Sam Altman · Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 Besides Airbnb, Dropbox and Stripe, more than 50 YC companies are each worth more than $100 million. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Sam Altman Promise 1 Jan 2017 Sam Altman will teach YC's online startup course in 2017. Sam Altman · Promise · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 In 2016, YC funded 68 female founders at 52 companies. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 YC gives companies in its program $120k for 7% ownership and works intensively with them for 3 months, then less intensively afterwards. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 The percentage of women who apply to YC is roughly the same as the percentage of women who get funded. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 Hacker News remains focused on startups, programming and other intellectually interesting topics. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 YC invested about $27 million in its Winter and Summer 2016 batches and about $187 million so far in later-stage investments from its first Continuity fund. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 1 Jan 2017 Amazon, Facebook, Google, Apple and Microsoft will continue to do many things well, hold data and computation advantages, attract many top engineers, and aggressively buy promising startups. Sam Altman · Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 As of January 1, 2017, Y Combinator had funded over 3,200 founders and 1,470 companies. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 Paul Graham and Jessica Livingston put in place a YC cultural value of doing the right thing for founders even when not in YC's short-term interest. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 YC sees significant dropoffs of underrepresented founders at stages after YC, such as raising late-stage capital. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Factual 2017 Donald Trump said a few anti-Fed things during the election campaign. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham said that, unless there were substantial unexpected negatives, this did seem to make the odds of a major market decline in the near future quite low, adding "famous last words?". Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved false Ørsted Promise 2017 DONG Energy will stop using coal altogether at its power plants from 2023. Ørsted · Promise · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Trump is likely to settle for a moderate reduction in corporate tax rates in 2017 rather than a full redo of the tax code. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham's outlook for the S&P 500, proposed in October 2016 at 2.8% real per year for 20 years, has fallen to 2.3% real per year at recent higher prices. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham suggests that this reason for lower demand for capital and lower real rates will probably take a few decades to fade away, not the usual seven-year average regression period for financial ratios. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Sam Altman Factual 2017 Paul Ryan, Mike Pence, Kevin McCarthy and James Mattis said Trump's proposed Muslim ban was wrong when he first proposed it. Sam Altman · Factual · 2017 Other
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Unless there are substantial unexpected negatives, US corporate margins will be up in 2017. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Own records only Ørsted Factual 2017 DONG Energy's treasury shares have not been acquired for the purpose of reducing the share capital. Ørsted · Factual · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2017 Events now beginning under the Trump administration will be taught in history classes in a negative light. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2017 Other
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual 2017 Almost all serious economic declines have been associated with oil price surges, and the trend price of oil, based on the cost of finding new oil, is now about three and a half times the old price. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Own records only Ørsted Factual 2017 Since August 2016, 61% of DONG Energy's sourced biomass has been certified as sustainable. Ørsted · Factual · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 A corporate tax reduction will raise corporate profits for quite a while above where they otherwise would have been. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Own records only Ørsted Factual 2017 DONG Energy's dialogue with investors and analysts is subject to restrictions starting three weeks before publication of its financial reports. Ørsted · Factual · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction 2017 DONG Energy's REnescience waste treatment plant in Northwich is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Changing the central bank policy of low rates is unlikely to be quick or easy, given 20 years of Fed support and adherents at the ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham prefers his suggestion of a 20-year limping regression that takes us two-thirds of the way back to the good old days pre-1997. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ørsted Factual 2017 DONG Energy's 2016 EBITDA from continuing operations was DKK 19.1 billion, underlying growth of 95%. Ørsted · Factual · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Ørsted Promise 2017 DONG Energy's target is that 60% of the biomass it buys during 2017 will be certified as sustainable. Ørsted · Promise · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham predicts that any effect of lower population growth rates on interest rates will take even longer than a few decades to fade. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 2017 DONG Energy aims to phase out coal completely from its power and heat generation by 2023. Ørsted · Promise · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Ørsted Factual 2017 DONG Energy's employee satisfaction index rose from 74 in 2015 to 76 in 2016. Ørsted · Factual · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ørsted Promise 2017 DONG Energy targets an average ROCE up to 2023 of 12-14% for the Group, 13-15% for Wind Power and 9-11% for Distribution & Customer Solutions. Ørsted · Promise · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Sam Altman Prediction 2017 Agrees with Kellyanne Conway that Trump is a man of action who is just getting started. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2017 Other
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Three factors are moving in favor of US profit margins in 2017, including oil and resource prices, which appear to have bottomed out and seem likely to compare favorably, and a likely moderate cut in corporate tax rates. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ørsted Factual 2017 Offshore wind does not take up land or cause inconvenience for neighbours. Ørsted · Factual · 2017 Technology
Own records only Jeremy Grantham Factual 2017 In his early training period Grantham adopted Ben Graham's value-oriented biases. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Asking whether "it" would be quick enough to drag corporate margins back toward normal in the next 10 or 15 years, Grantham suggested not holding one's breath. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Factual 2017 Some AI problems might be too complex for individual labs and not of enough financial interest to large AI companies like Google and Meta, which he described as driven by profits rather than humanity. Gary Marcus · Factual · 2017 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham expects income inequality to take decades to move materially unless there is an unexpected near revolution in politics. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ørsted Promise 2017 DONG Energy maintains its target of a lost-time injury frequency (LTIF) of 1.5 by 2020. Ørsted · Promise · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham thinks interest rates lower than those before 1997 are likely to persist for years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 2017 Most Trump voters voted for him for reasons other than his promise of a Muslim ban. Sam Altman · Factual · 2017 Other
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham says productivity would need unexpected good fortune to accelerate enough to push interest rates up in the near term. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ørsted Factual 2017 Significant advances in offshore wind technology are currently resulting in markedly lower costs. Ørsted · Factual · 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Sam Altman Promise 2017 Y Combinator will hold a meeting on Friday to discuss how tech companies can respond to the Trump administration's actions. Sam Altman · Promise · 2017 Other
Mostly true Ørsted Prediction 2017 With 1.2GW capacity, Hornsea 1 will be the world's largest offshore wind farm when commissioned in 2020, and DONG Energy's biggest investment ever. Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Factual 2017 For about 20 years after 1996 the S&P 500 P/E ratio stayed high by 1935-1995 standards. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ørsted Promise 2017 DONG Energy's target is that 100% of the biomass it buys will be certified as sustainable by 2020. Ørsted · Promise · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Sam Altman Factual 2017 President Trump repeatedly invoked unsubstantiated conspiracy theories, such as 3 million illegal votes, in his first week in office. Sam Altman · Factual · 2017 Other
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Factual 2017 Grantham used to call profit margins the most dependably mean-reverting series in finance. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Factual 2017 Grantham said the US market has been acting as if it is oscillating normally enough, but around a much higher average P/E. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual 2017 Value investors have for decades told momentum investors that the four most dangerous words are "This time is different." Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ørsted Factual 2017 DONG Energy is the energy company in Europe that has come furthest in the transition to renewable energy. Ørsted · Factual · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual 2017 The S&P 500 has sold at a much higher P/E level for 20 years, and this has not meant that better stock pickers have not won. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ørsted Factual 2017 DONG Energy was listed on Nasdaq Copenhagen on 9 June 2016, the biggest IPO in Danish history. Ørsted · Factual · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Oil and resource prices appeared to have bottomed out in 2016 and seem likely to have favorable comparisons for a few quarters. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Removing regulations here and there will lower corporate costs in the short term. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 31 Dec 2016 Setting aside the 50% bin, which he called meaningless, Scott Alexander said his main calibration deviation in 2016 was some underconfidence at the 70% level. Scott Alexander · Factual · 31 Dec 2016 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 31 Dec 2016 Of his 2016 predictions made at 50% confidence, Scott Alexander got 8 right and 5 wrong, a score of 62%. Scott Alexander · Factual · 31 Dec 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 31 Dec 2016 Looking back at his 2014, 2015 and 2016 predictions, Scott Alexander said he is probably generally a little underconfident in medium-probability predictions. Scott Alexander · Factual · 31 Dec 2016 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 31 Dec 2016 Scott Alexander makes predictions at the start of every year and scores them at the end of every year. Scott Alexander · Factual · 31 Dec 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Nate Silver Factual 9 Nov 2016 Had Clinton done 2 percentage points better across the board in 2016, she would have received 307 electoral votes and the polls would have called 49 of 50 states correctly. Nate Silver · Factual · 9 Nov 2016 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Factual 7 Nov 2016 On November 7, 2016 the S&P 500 price was 8% below the 2-sigma level of 2300 calculated by GMO. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 7 Nov 2016 Economics and markets
Mixed Nate Silver Factual Nov 2016 The 2016 polling error was modest and in line with historical polling errors, yet large enough to give Trump many paths to victory. Nate Silver · Factual · Nov 2016 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual Nov 2016 FiveThirtyEight's final 2016 forecast, issued early on election Tuesday evening, gave Trump a 29 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. Nate Silver · Factual · Nov 2016 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual Nov 2016 The main reason FiveThirtyEight's 2016 model gave Trump a better chance than other models was its assumption that polling errors are correlated. Nate Silver · Factual · Nov 2016 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Nate Silver Factual Nov 2016 Inferences from early voting data have a fairly bad track record in predicting election outcomes, including in 2016. Nate Silver · Factual · Nov 2016 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Nate Silver Factual Nov 2016 Most mainstream journalists would have given Trump much lower odds than the 30 percent chance FiveThirtyEight gave him. Nate Silver · Factual · Nov 2016 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual Nov 2016 Clinton significantly underperformed her polls across the Midwest and Rust Belt in the 2016 election, costing her the Electoral College. Nate Silver · Factual · Nov 2016 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 11 Oct 2016 FiveThirtyEight's forecast of Clinton's chances is based on objective analysis of polling in presidential elections dating back to 1972. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Science and research methods
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Rodney Brooks

Open its page

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

“We might also see level 4 autonomy on some delivery vehicles in dense urban environments.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author 12 January 2017 Unexpected Consequences of Self Driving Cars (rodneybrooks.com)

Level 4 autonomy may appear on some delivery vehicles in dense urban environments.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Reasoning

Hedged 'may appear' claim with no horizon is untestable.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “Level 4 autonomy may appear on some delivery vehicles in dense urban environments.” (said 12 January 2017). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_ff93ff535ca7, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ff93ff535ca7

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.