18 claims
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved false | Demis Hassabis | Promise | 20 May 2026 | Google DeepMind will release a Gemini 3.5 Pro model following Gemini 3.5 Flash. Demis Hassabis · Promise · 20 May 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 28 Jan 2026 | Tesla hopes to debut the next-generation Roadster in April 2026. Elon Musk · Promise · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 28 Jan 2026 | Tesla will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. Elon Musk · Promise · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Warren Buffett | Promise | 5 May 2024 | Poor Charlie's Almanack will be the only book at the Berkshire meeting bookstore next year. Warren Buffett · Promise · 5 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 24 Jan 2024 | Musk said he thinks Tesla has a good chance of shipping some number of Optimus units in 2025, and he called Optimus a brand-new product. Elon Musk · Promise · 24 Jan 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 24 Jan 2024 | Musk said Tesla's current schedule is to start production toward the end of 2025, sometime in the second half, while noting that he is often optimistic regarding time. Elon Musk · Promise · 24 Jan 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Guidance | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla expects growth in 2022 over 2021 comfortably above 50%. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Guidance | 27 Jan 2022 | If able to respond to demand, Tesla's energy business might grow by about 200% to 300% in 2022 rather than about 50%. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 3 Mar 2021 | SpaceX will attempt a Starship launch on 4 March 2021, with the window opening at 9am. Elon Musk · Promise · 3 Mar 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Tesla Semi will likely be the first vehicle to achieve full autonomy. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Guidance | 27 Jan 2021 | Tesla targets 100 gigawatt-hours of Tesla-produced cells in 2022. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | Feb 2018 | Ørsted expects gross investments in 2018 of DKK 16-18 billion, covering offshore wind projects, the Asnæs Power Station biomass conversion and smart meter installation. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | Feb 2018 | Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements of DKK 12-13 billion, compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 16 Jun 2017 | SpaceX plans to send a Dragon 2 propulsive lander to Mars in about two years, and probably another Dragon mission in 2020. Elon Musk · Promise · 16 Jun 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Promise | 2017 | DONG Energy will stop using coal altogether at its power plants from 2023. Ørsted · Promise · 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | 2017 | DONG Energy's REnescience waste treatment plant in Northwich is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 20 Jul 2016 | Tesla plans to create an integrated solar-roof-with-battery product and scale it throughout the world. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Apr 2007 | GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 | Their own work or organisation |
“Create a smoothly integrated and beautiful solar-roof-with-battery product that just works, empowering the individual as their own utility, and then scale that throughout the world.”
Elon Musk, Tesla CEO, blog author 20 July 2016 Master Plan, Part Deux (Tesla)
Tesla plans to create an integrated solar-roof-with-battery product and scale it throughout the world.
Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
An open-ended promise (Master Plan Part Deux, 2016) to create an integrated solar-roof-with-battery product and scale it throughout the world. No deadline is given, so judge as of the latest evidence (late 2026). True: Tesla sells an integrated solar roof (or solar plus Powerwall) product that is installed at scale across multiple countries or continents. Mostly true: the integrated product exists and sells in several markets, but its deployment is modest relative to 'throughout the world'. Mixed: the product exists, but it is sold mainly in one country (e.g. the US) at limited volume. Mostly false: the product launched but stayed niche with minimal international scaling, or it was scaled back. False: the product was never brought to market, or it was discontinued, as shown by Tesla filings or reporting.
Evidence
- Tesla discontinues its Solar Roof tiles, not economically viable Electrek · 20 August 2026
“Tesla has discontinued the Solar Roof, its solar-tile roofing product, Electrek has learned.”
- Tesla discontinues its Solar Roof tiles, not economically viable Electrek · 20 August 2026
“Tesla stopped breaking out solar roof deployment figures in its quarterly reports in early 2024, and the product had all but disappeared from the company’s marketing.”
- Tesla Solar Roof: Musk builds sustainable communities with photovoltaic tiles blending in with normal roofs Notebookcheck · 19 January 2024
“The Solar Roof has been available in the USA since 2016 and was launched in Australia in 2020. A little later, in 2022, the Solar Roof has been available in Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland and the UK.”
- Tesla Solar Roof deployments miss expectations Wood Mackenzie · 30 March 2023
“Since the launch of the Tesla Solar Roof (“Solar Roof”) in 2016, Wood Mackenzie estimates that approximately 3,000 Solar Roofs have been installed nationwide, with a total capacity of nearly 30 megawatts direct current (MWdc), missing Tesla’s stated goal of 1,000 installations per week.”
Reasoning
Tesla launched the Solar Roof in the US in 2016 and later offered it in Australia, Canada and several European countries (E3). Wood Mackenzie estimated only about 3,000 US installations by March 2023, far below Tesla's stated goal of 1,000 a week (E4). Electrek reported in August 2026 that Tesla had discontinued the Solar Roof (E1). It also said Tesla had stopped reporting deployment figures in early 2024 and had largely dropped the product from its marketing (E2). Under the criteria, a product discontinued as shown by reporting resolves false.
Cite this claim
Elon Musk, “Tesla plans to create an integrated solar-roof-with-battery product and scale it throughout the world.” (said 20 July 2016). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_f90ec51a3748, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f90ec51a3748
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.