6,750 claims · page 43 of 68
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved true | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 18 Apr 2020 | As of April 2020 the US lacked enough coronavirus tests and test materials, including cotton swabs and common reagents. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 18 Apr 2020 | Other global risks |
| Mixed | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 18 Apr 2020 | As of April 2020 there were not enough ventilators, negative pressure rooms and ICU beds. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 18 Apr 2020 | Other global risks |
| Mostly false | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 18 Apr 2020 | One-to-one tutoring can reliably increase education outcomes by two standard deviations (the Bloom two-sigma effect). Marc Andreessen · Factual · 18 Apr 2020 | Science and research methods |
| Not yet due | Marc Andreessen | Prediction | 18 Apr 2020 | The institutional failure over the coronavirus pandemic will have effects through the rest of the 2020s. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 18 Apr 2020 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 18 Apr 2020 | Every Western institution was unprepared for the coronavirus pandemic despite many prior warnings. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 18 Apr 2020 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Marc Andreessen | Prediction | 18 Apr 2020 | The essay "It's Time to Build" will be the target of criticism. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 18 Apr 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 18 Apr 2020 | Things built in huge quantities, like computers and TVs, drop rapidly in price. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 18 Apr 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 31 Mar 2020 | Peter Thiel had warned about biomedical red tape about five years before March 2020. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 31 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Jim Cramer | Factual | 31 Mar 2020 | Many doctors who have tried the treatment, which the quote does not name, have not been able to replicate the good results that had been reported. Jim Cramer · Factual · 31 Mar 2020 | Science and research methods |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 31 Mar 2020 | Censoring anyone in this way, let alone a head of state, will push people towards censorship-resistant platforms. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 31 Mar 2020 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Steven Pinker | Factual | 31 Mar 2020 | The original Boas-school anthropologists believed in human nature but not in innate group differences; the blank-slate dogma is an extreme version of their view. Steven Pinker · Factual · 31 Mar 2020 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 30 Mar 2020 | It took about 10 years for the economy to recover from the Great Recession. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 30 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 30 Mar 2020 | When US stimulus checks arrive, people will spend them on consumer staples, after which prices will rise. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 30 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 30 Mar 2020 | Europe has reported low quality masks and tests imported from China. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 30 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 30 Mar 2020 | The subject said that @lymanstoneky has a compelling argument that what the graph shows is actually due to incomplete data for the last two weeks, because the historical figures are not final. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 30 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 30 Mar 2020 | Steven Pinker and an epidemiologist were featured as Harvard experts in a Harvard article on the fate of the handshake. Steven Pinker · Factual · 30 Mar 2020 | Other |
| Mostly false | Jim Cramer | Factual | 30 Mar 2020 | On 2020-03-30 falling oil prices were pushing down the S&P 500, with oil about to fall through $19 a barrel. Jim Cramer · Factual · 30 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nate Silver | Factual | 30 Mar 2020 | Biden leads Sanders by 19 points in FiveThirtyEight's national Democratic primary poll average as of 2020-03-30, basically unchanged over several weeks. Nate Silver · Factual · 30 Mar 2020 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Nate Silver | Factual | 29 Mar 2020 | As of 2020-03-29, the UK has tested about one-sixth as many people as the US and its detected case count is about one-sixth as high. Nate Silver · Factual · 29 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mixed | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 29 Mar 2020 | Vox did not accurately relay what experts were saying at the time; WHO had declared a global emergency in late January 2020, weeks before the Recode handshake piece. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 29 Mar 2020 | Other |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 29 Mar 2020 | The COVID-19 lockdown will not be the last lockdown. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 29 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Factual | 29 Mar 2020 | The Netherlands considered a herd immunity strategy and its case fatality rate is now 7% as of 2020-03-29. Nate Silver · Factual · 29 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 28 Mar 2020 | Biotech and tech for remote work, autonomy and digital services are among the businesses that may survive or even thrive during the pandemic. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 28 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 28 Mar 2020 | There are more individual stories of wearables picking up COVID-19 symptoms. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 28 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 28 Mar 2020 | The coronavirus peak in the NYC metro area will probably come sooner than elsewhere in the US. Nate Silver · Prediction · 28 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 28 Mar 2020 | Businesses aligned with fighting the coronavirus or defending against its direct and indirect effects may survive or even thrive. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 28 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 28 Mar 2020 | Fear of retaliation may be why many doctors did not go on the record in recent weeks about equipment shortages. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 28 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Nate Silver | Factual | 28 Mar 2020 | Italy has increased coronavirus testing considerably over the past several days as of 2020-03-28. Nate Silver · Factual · 28 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Nate Silver | Factual | 27 Mar 2020 | As of 2020-03-27, detected coronavirus cases are increasing faster in red states than in blue states. Nate Silver · Factual · 27 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Nate Silver | Prediction | 27 Mar 2020 | Almost nothing Joe Biden does in the next few weeks will matter much for the November 2020 election. Nate Silver · Prediction · 27 Mar 2020 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Nate Silver | Factual | 27 Mar 2020 | As of late March 2020, the UK has a considerably higher coronavirus death rate than the US, with similar positives per capita. Nate Silver · Factual · 27 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Nate Silver | Factual | 27 Mar 2020 | As of 2020-03-27, blue states have more detected coronavirus cases than red states. Nate Silver · Factual · 27 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Steven Pinker | Promise | 26 Mar 2020 | The 2020-03-26 Rationality class lecture on a rational model for climate action will be recorded and posted later. Steven Pinker · Promise · 26 Mar 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Nate Silver | Prediction | 26 Mar 2020 | Experts expect about 117,000 reported coronavirus cases in the US by Sunday 2020-03-29. Nate Silver · Prediction · 26 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 24 Mar 2020 | Avoiding terms like 'Chinese Virus' and 'Wuhan virus' is part of a trend within medicine to avoid stigmatizing names for diseases and conditions. Steven Pinker · Factual · 24 Mar 2020 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 20 Mar 2020 | John Ioannidis published a 2005 article that alerted scientists to the replicability crisis. Steven Pinker · Factual · 20 Mar 2020 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | Steven Pinker | Factual | 20 Mar 2020 | Tom Lehrer is a former MIT instructor, and The Professor's Songs is a performance from the 1990s. Steven Pinker · Factual · 20 Mar 2020 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Steven Pinker | Promise | 20 Mar 2020 | Will MacAskill will give a virtual guest lecture in Pinker's Rationality course later in the spring 2020 semester. Steven Pinker · Promise · 20 Mar 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Steven Pinker | Factual | 19 Mar 2020 | Michael Shermer, editor of Skeptic, shared a Chapman University lecture on conspiracy theories and their psychological roots. Steven Pinker · Factual · 19 Mar 2020 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Steven Pinker | Factual | 19 Mar 2020 | The US spends about twice as much per student on tertiary education as Europe does. Steven Pinker · Factual · 19 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | Microbes are likely to eventually become resistant to hand sanitizer if it is widely used. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | A very large number of people may need to be tested for COVID-19 because there may be more spreaders than assumed. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mixed | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | Testing may need to become extremely routine, effectively mainstreaming genomics. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 13 Mar 2020 | If about 100 people in San Francisco had the virus, there would be about a 10 percent chance that a 1,000-person gathering includes an infected person. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | SARS-CoV-2 is not necessarily going to evolve to become less lethal, since it is already highly contagious and asymptomatic for long periods. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | The pandemic will force everybody to treat remote work as primary rather than auxiliary. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | COVID-19 could accelerate biomedicine as much as the Internet accelerated software. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 13 Mar 2020 | Given 10 deaths in Washington state, there are probably thousands of undiagnosed coronavirus cases there. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | People will lean harder into social networks and online games as proxies for offline socialization because of the pandemic. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 13 Mar 2020 | Real-time PCR is not especially fast; 'real time' refers to something different. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | Eventually scientists will be able to trace the most recent roots of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, though perhaps not for some time. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | People who suffer severe COVID-19 may have long-term health impacts that are not yet known. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 13 Mar 2020 | COVID-19 testing involves taking a swab from the patient's mouth or nose, sending it to a lab, and receiving a positive or negative result. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | The pandemic will be a gigantic boost for every diagnostic and medical imaging company in the world, with defense-budget-level spending. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | Health screening of travellers will move to real time, within a day or an hour before boarding a flight. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 13 Mar 2020 | COVID-19 is spreading uncontrollably on multiple continents, so it meets the definition of a pandemic. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | COVID-19 will cause at least a recession, likely something more severe. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | 2020 will establish a lasting new normal, as World War Two did for women in the workforce. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | Srinivasan said he thought China would build a nationwide system that constantly sequences and tests its population, then quarantines and vaccinates areas where a virus is rising. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | Srinivasan said he thought pandemic defense would become a significant part of China's defense budget going forward. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | Balaji Srinivasan said he thought trusted communities would start to emerge in which members have high trust that others are taking hygienic measures. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | Work-from-home tools such as home office chat will get really good as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 12 Mar 2020 | The newest lecture in Gen Ed 1066, Rationality, is titled Social and Political Bias. Steven Pinker · Factual · 12 Mar 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 24 Feb 2020 | Khosla Ventures does not allow IRR calculations when making an investment and never looks at them. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 24 Feb 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 24 Feb 2020 | OpenAI, a Khosla investment, is pursuing the goal of building artificial general intelligence (transcribed as 'ADR'). Vinod Khosla · Factual · 24 Feb 2020 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 24 Feb 2020 | Vinod Khosla said he first read about Andy Grove, a Hungarian immigrant who moved to the US and started a company, when he was 15. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 24 Feb 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 24 Feb 2020 | Square's current business was not part of the plan when Khosla Ventures originally invested; it started as a hardware dongle. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 24 Feb 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Own records only | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 24 Feb 2020 | Khosla Ventures did not sell many of its portfolio companies and held on to them. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 24 Feb 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 24 Feb 2020 | Vinod Khosla does not attend many board meetings now. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 24 Feb 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 24 Feb 2020 | Square's stock is up roughly 8x to 10x since its IPO. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 24 Feb 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 24 Feb 2020 | Vinod Khosla published his 2019 book recommendations on Medium.com, a list of more than 20 books. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 24 Feb 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 24 Feb 2020 | Khosla Ventures basically does not invest in advertising tools now. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 24 Feb 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 24 Feb 2020 | Building artificial general intelligence, as OpenAI aims to do, may eliminate the need for people to work. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 24 Feb 2020 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 24 Feb 2020 | Three people Vinod Khosla invested in won Nobel prizes after he invested in them. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 24 Feb 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 24 Feb 2020 | When investing in Impossible Foods, Khosla Ventures made clear it would pass up profit rather than sell the company to a food company that might divert its mission. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 24 Feb 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 24 Feb 2020 | Vinod Khosla interviews roughly eight to ten people a week, mostly for Khosla Ventures portfolio companies. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 24 Feb 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 24 Feb 2020 | Khosla said his selection of 100 Khosla Ventures portfolio companies did not include successes such as Square, Stripe or Nutanix. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 24 Feb 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 12 Feb 2020 | Demis Hassabis received the 2020 Dan David Prize Future Award alongside Prof. Amnon Shashua. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 12 Feb 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Prediction | 10 Feb 2020 | Global health work will become more important in future as climate change makes more people susceptible to disease. Bill Gates · Prediction · 10 Feb 2020 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Factual | 10 Feb 2020 | The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation was started 20 years before 2020. Bill Gates · Factual · 10 Feb 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Factual | 10 Feb 2020 | For the last 20 years the Gates Foundation has focused on improving global health and strengthening US public education. Bill Gates · Factual · 10 Feb 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Factual | 10 Feb 2020 | By 2019, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance had helped vaccinate more than 760 million children and prevent 13 million deaths. Bill Gates · Factual · 10 Feb 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Factual | 10 Feb 2020 | Gavi has brought more vaccines and supplies into the market while lowering prices. Bill Gates · Factual · 10 Feb 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Factual | 10 Feb 2020 | Gates said that "we" had known for a while that they wanted to give away the majority of their wealth from Microsoft and use it to make people's lives better. Bill Gates · Factual · 10 Feb 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Factual | 10 Feb 2020 | The Gates Foundation has spent $53.8 billion over its first 20 years. Bill Gates · Factual · 10 Feb 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Factual | 10 Feb 2020 | Vaginal gels were not effective at stopping HIV transmission, despite the foundation's optimism that they could prevent infection. Bill Gates · Factual · 10 Feb 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly false | Bill Gates | Factual | 10 Feb 2020 | An HIV-positive person receiving treatment now has the same expected lifespan as someone without HIV. Bill Gates · Factual · 10 Feb 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Peter Thiel | Factual | 7 Feb 2020 | In 2016, zero professors at the top five US law schools endorsed Donald Trump. Peter Thiel · Factual · 7 Feb 2020 | Other |
| Resolved true | Peter Thiel | Factual | 7 Feb 2020 | China's per capita GDP is close to $10,000. Peter Thiel · Factual · 7 Feb 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Peter Thiel | Factual | 7 Feb 2020 | The US economy was not deeply connected to the Soviet Union's during the Cold War. Peter Thiel · Factual · 7 Feb 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Peter Thiel | Prediction | 7 Feb 2020 | Peter Thiel predicts that returns to ideas will be positive and greater than at any time in the last 50 years. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 7 Feb 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Peter Thiel | Factual | 7 Feb 2020 | California was a 50/50 Republican-Democrat state 40 years ago and is now D+30, the second most Democratic state in the US. Peter Thiel · Factual · 7 Feb 2020 | Other |
| Mostly true | Peter Thiel | Factual | 7 Feb 2020 | The US and Chinese economies are very deeply connected. Peter Thiel · Factual · 7 Feb 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Peter Thiel | Prediction | 7 Feb 2020 | The strategic balance between the US and China will stay very even for a really long time. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 7 Feb 2020 | Other global risks |
| Mostly true | Peter Thiel | Factual | 7 Feb 2020 | The main way middle-class people in the US accumulate capital is by owning real estate, their house. Peter Thiel · Factual · 7 Feb 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Peter Thiel | Factual | 7 Feb 2020 | US student debt was $300 billion in 2000 and is $1.7 trillion as of early 2020. Peter Thiel · Factual · 7 Feb 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 15 Jan 2020 | The DeepMind Nature paper takes inspiration from its recent reinforcement learning work to shed new light on how dopamine works in the brain. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 15 Jan 2020 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 15 Jan 2020 | Two DeepMind papers were published in the same issue of Nature in January 2020. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 15 Jan 2020 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 15 Jan 2020 | A DeepMind paper on AI and neuroscience was published in Nature on 2020-01-15. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 15 Jan 2020 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 15 Jan 2020 | DeepMind's AlphaFold work, using deep neural networks to predict protein structures, was published in Nature on 2020-01-15. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 15 Jan 2020 | Science and research methods |
“Meanwhile, Italy has increased testing quite a lot over the past several days”
Nate Silver, on X 28 March 2020 Post by @NateSilver538 on X, 2020-03-28 (X)
Italy has increased coronavirus testing considerably over the past several days as of 2020-03-28.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
What would count as true or false
Compare Italy's daily COVID-19 tests (tamponi) in roughly the 5–7 days before 2020-03-28 with the period just before that, using data available as of 2020-03-28. True: daily tests rose substantially over those days, for example a rolling daily average about 25% or more above the prior comparable period, or a clear sustained rise to new highs. Mostly true: testing clearly rose, but the increase was modest (roughly 10–25%) or uneven, so 'quite a lot' overstates it slightly. Mixed: testing rose on some days and fell or held flat on others, with no clear net trend. Mostly false: testing was roughly flat (less than about 10% change) and only a day or two of higher counts supports the claim. False: daily testing held steady or fell over that period.
Evidence
- Coronavirus: 3.651 positivi, 889 morti. Record di guariti: sono 1.434. Bando per 500 infermieri: hanno risposto quasi in 10 mila La Repubblica · 28 March 2020
“Il numero di tamponi eseguiti è salito a 429.526 (+35.447).”
- Coronavirus: 3.651 positivi, 889 morti. Record di guariti: sono 1.434. Bando per 500 infermieri: hanno risposto quasi in 10 mila La Repubblica · 28 March 2020
“"siamo arrivati a circa 429 mila, è l'8% in più di ieri", secondo una strategia di analisi pilotata dall'Istituto superiore di sanità"”
- Documentation for COVID-19 Testing Data in Italy pitmonticone (GitHub Pages; third-party documentation of the Italian DPC testing data, used for Our World in Data) · 10 May 2020
“There have been significant changes over time in the ministerial testing protocol. (high confidence | ISS, MTP27-02, MTP09-03, MTP03-04, AXV)”
- Epidemiology of Coronavirus Disease Outbreak: The Italian Trends Reviews on Recent Clinical Trials (Bentham Science), 2020, Vol. 15, No. 2 · 2020
“Swabs: number of coronavirus tests performed”
- Table S1. PubMed Central (PMC), NCBI
“| 21-Mar | 6557 | 793 | 26336 | | 22-Mar | 5560 | 651 | 25180 | | 23-Mar | 4790 | 601 | 17066 | | 24-Mar | 5249 | 743 | 21496 | | 25-Mar | 5210 | 683 | 27481 | | 26-Mar | 6153 | 712 | 36615 | | 27-Mar | 5909 | 919 | 33019 |”
- Table S1. PubMed Central (PMC), NCBI
“| 14-Mar | 3497 | 175 | 11682 | | 15-Mar | 3590 | 368 | 15729 | | 16-Mar | 3385 | 349 | 13063 | | 17-Mar | 3374 | 345 | 10695 | | 18-Mar | 4207 | 475 | 16884 | | 19-Mar | 5322 | 427 | 17236 | | 20-Mar | 5986 | 627 | 24109 |”
- Coronavirus, crescono i tamponi: cala la percentuale di positivi - Reggiosera Reggiosera · 28 March 2020
“A partire dal 19 marzo abbiamo un’impennata netta che porta il totale dei tamponi a 47.798 al 27 marzo”
Reasoning
E1 gives one labelled national figure: on 28 March, 35,447 new tests brought the cumulative total to 429,526. E2 says the cumulative total rose about 8% from the day before. Both describe a single day, not a trend over 5–7 days compared with the period before. The daily rows in E7/E8 have no column labels in the quoted text, so they cannot show what the numbers measure. E9 gives a total of 47,798 tests by 27 March but does not show that this is a national figure. The evidence does not settle the multi-day national comparison the criteria require.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “Italy has increased coronavirus testing considerably over the past several days as of 2020-03-28.” (said 28 March 2020). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_f7e18149e8c6, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f7e18149e8c6
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.