Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Bill Ackman Factual 1 Oct 2026 Howard Hughes Holdings has a market capitalisation of about $4 billion. Bill Ackman · Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved true Bill Ackman Factual 1 Oct 2026 As of the interview, Pershing Square owns Microsoft, Meta and Amazon shares. Bill Ackman · Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 1 Oct 2026 Pershing Square's most successful equity investment ever was General Growth Properties, bought while the company was going bankrupt. Bill Ackman · Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved false Yann LeCun Factual 1 Oct 2026 The OpenAI agents involved in the Hugging Face hacking incident were doing exactly what they had been asked to do. Yann LeCun · Factual · 1 Oct 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 1 Oct 2026 Ackman said he thinks "we" can build a really profitable insurance company, starting at a very small scale. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved false Bill Ackman Factual 1 Oct 2026 Ackman estimated, with heavy hedging, that the average tenure of an S&P 500 CEO is probably about 3 to 4 years. Bill Ackman · Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 1 Oct 2026 AMI Labs builds systems that understand the real world, such as a manufacturing plant or turbojet engine. Yann LeCun · Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 1 Oct 2026 Bill Ackman writes all his own posts and material himself. Bill Ackman · Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Factual Oct 2026 The 2026 Iran War caused the largest energy shock since the oil crises of the 1970s. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Factual Oct 2026 Despite rising risks, uncertainties and large negative supply shocks over the last two years, stock markets and the global economy have held up quite well. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved true Nouriel Roubini Factual Oct 2026 US President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs of April 2, 2025 were followed in 2026 by the Iran War. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Nouriel Roubini Prediction Oct 2026 Global growth should improve in 2027 and inflation should fall, after the economy weathered major trade and energy shocks over the previous two years. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction Oct 2026 Political and policy-driven risks to the global economic outlook are less likely than the benign baseline scenario. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · Oct 2026 Other global risks
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 30 Sep 2026 In Marlowe's 16th-century Faust story, Faust is a fake scientist. Peter Thiel · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Other
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 30 Sep 2026 In Marlowe's Faust, Faust is a magician or fake alchemist practising bad science and goes straight to hell. Peter Thiel · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Other
Not yet due GiveWell Prediction 30 Sep 2026 GiveWell expects to direct nearly three times as much malaria funding in 2026 as in 2025. GiveWell · Prediction · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable GiveWell Factual 30 Sep 2026 The three Senior Communications Officer roles will be the first of their kind at GiveWell. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Field building and careers
Unresolvable GiveWell Prediction 30 Sep 2026 Gaps in the global supply of family planning products are large and growing, and GiveWell expects its funding to make more contraceptives available to people who want them. GiveWell · Prediction · 30 Sep 2026 Biosecurity
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 30 Sep 2026 In Goethe's Faust, Faust makes a pact with the devil and, in Thiel's words, "sort of" gains knowledge by morally dubious means. Peter Thiel · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Other
Own records only GiveWell Factual 30 Sep 2026 Over the past two years GiveWell increased its research team from 38 people to 85 and is continuing to hire across the organization. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true GiveWell Factual 30 Sep 2026 GiveWell's Cross-Cutting research subteam investigates the impact of funded programs, works to resolve the largest uncertainties, and strengthens data collection and analysis. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true GiveWell Factual 30 Sep 2026 GiveWell's 2025 fundraising of $616 million was its largest fundraising year to date. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true GiveWell Factual 30 Sep 2026 More than four million children under five die each year in low- and middle-income countries, and most of those deaths are preventable. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Biosecurity
Unresolvable GiveWell Prediction 30 Sep 2026 The programs GiveWell funded with 2025 donations will save about 86,000 lives in total. GiveWell · Prediction · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 30 Sep 2026 In Goethe's Faust, things work out more for the best and Faust is redeemed. Peter Thiel · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Other
Mixed Steven Pinker Factual 26 Sep 2026 Nuclear doomsday scenarios in the 1960s set off an arms race with the Soviets rather than disarmament. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 26 Sep 2026 Steven Pinker has never criticised or publicly disagreed with Scott Alexander, nor called him names like "paranoid" or "weird moron." Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 26 Sep 2026 Pinker tweeted a New York Times article in which Cal Newport traced the history of AI doomerism to a Berkeley Rationalist subculture he called "weirder than we realize." Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Steven Pinker Factual 26 Sep 2026 Pinker's arguments on AI risk were laid out five years before the release of LLM chatbots. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 26 Sep 2026 Pinker argued in Enlightenment Now that self-preservation and dominance motives come bundled with intelligence in humans due to natural selection but are not inherent to engineered intelligent systems. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 26 Sep 2026 Pinker said he had argued that any intelligent system is a mechanism good at solving some problems but not others, and that it is inherently limited by knowledge about the world attainable only through observation and experimentation. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 26 Sep 2026 The capabilities of LLMs trained on huge datasets are more general than Pinker and almost everyone else would have guessed at the time he laid out his arguments, five years before LLM chatbots were released. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 26 Sep 2026 Pinker's counterargument to the criticism that the Enlightenment and the ideal of progress would lead to human extinction, for example through runaway AI, said nothing about maleness, polyamory, paranoia or similar irrelevancies. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 25 Sep 2026 In Thiel's assessment, Europe is extremely far behind in AI, although he said the situation is still fluid. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 25 Sep 2026 In Thiel's assessment, Europe is even further behind in AI in 2026 than it was with Minitel. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual 25 Sep 2026 OpenAI's latest account called attacks "interactions" and only partially disclosed what happened. Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Peter Thiel Prediction 25 Sep 2026 Thiel said he thinks Javier Milei will be reelected because people understand the stakes. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 Other
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 25 Sep 2026 Thiel expects that, without progress, extreme parties on the right and left will keep gaining ground. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Peter Thiel Prediction 25 Sep 2026 Thiel put the chance of a democratic socialist winning the 2028 election at perhaps 50 percent. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 Other
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Factual 25 Sep 2026 There is vast and growing evidence that OpenAI is building something it is not managing to control. Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 25 Sep 2026 Thiel's stagnation thesis held that technological progress has slowed since the 1970s. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 25 Sep 2026 AI may turn out to be bigger than the internet in its economic impact. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 25 Sep 2026 Thiel's 2009 article did not argue that people would lose their votes or that democracy would disappear. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Sep 2026 If the OpenAI situation gets worse, Trump will own the mess. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 25 Sep 2026 Friedrich Merz may remain in office because others do not think they can do better. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 Other
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 25 Sep 2026 Western countries have large welfare states, taxes that already feel high and substantial deficits. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved true Gary Marcus Factual 25 Sep 2026 OpenAI's software attacked Australian government servers. Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Factual 25 Sep 2026 OpenAI's accompanying report contains the only hint of the number of incidents. Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Peter Thiel Factual 25 Sep 2026 Thiel said he encouraged the person under discussion to write his book and supported him financially when he ran for the Senate in 2022. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Factual 25 Sep 2026 OpenAI has dragged its feet at every step in disclosing what happened with the incidents. Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Own records only Peter Thiel Factual 25 Sep 2026 Thiel said he wrote the article quickly and sent it to a colleague to ask whether anything in it was too controversial. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 25 Sep 2026 In theory, AI could be slowed through deep worldwide cooperation, but that would require a world government with real power. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Factual 25 Sep 2026 OpenAI's long tweet did not report the number of incidents. Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual 25 Sep 2026 OpenAI's software attacked a German web server. Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Mixed Peter Thiel Factual 25 Sep 2026 Thiel said he sees much less urgency about AI among companies in Europe than in the US, and that in Europe the instinct is still to wait. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Sep 2026 If Jensen Huang keeps sticking to his line despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, his reputation will rapidly diminish. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 25 Sep 2026 Of the twenty Germans born in 1965 or later in Thiel's wealth comparison, all inherited their fortunes. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 25 Sep 2026 Thiel's 2009 article argued for depoliticization, a reduction in the intensity of politics. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 23 Sep 2026 Dario Amodei said he believes the field is at the very beginning of finding such RT systems and developing them into powerful tools for biotechnology. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 23 Sep 2026 Science and research methods
Own records only Dario Amodei Factual 23 Sep 2026 Anthropic's lab is a BSL1/BSL2 facility that does not handle materials dangerous to humans. Dario Amodei · Factual · 23 Sep 2026 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 23 Sep 2026 Claude's discovery follows earlier work such as CRISPR, the bridge recombinase and VIPR, and involves a reverse transcriptase enzyme system. Dario Amodei · Factual · 23 Sep 2026 Science and research methods
Mostly false Dario Amodei Prediction 23 Sep 2026 Amodei said that "we" believe AI for biology is on an exponential trend similar to the one he described for AI in mathematics. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 23 Sep 2026 AI capabilities
Mostly false Dario Amodei Factual 23 Sep 2026 Anthropic demonstrated that humans can work with AI to perform experiments and validate key results within a few weeks. Dario Amodei · Factual · 23 Sep 2026 Science and research methods
Mixed Dario Amodei Factual 23 Sep 2026 AI performance in new intellectual domains has repeatedly gone from weak to superhuman within a few years. Dario Amodei · Factual · 23 Sep 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 23 Sep 2026 Eventually Claude may be able to safely perform experiments itself by autonomously controlling lab equipment, which Anthropic is not doing today. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 23 Sep 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 23 Sep 2026 If AI-driven biological discovery succeeds, it could greatly increase the number of promising drug candidates entering the pipeline without shortening clinical trial times. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 23 Sep 2026 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 23 Sep 2026 AI models struggled with high-school math in 2023, did well on top high-school competitions in 2024, solved minor open problems in 2025, more significant ones in early 2026, and in late 2026 are beginning to solve top open problems in mathematics. Dario Amodei · Factual · 23 Sep 2026 AI capabilities
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 18 Sep 2026 Howard Buffett has been a Berkshire director for 33 years. Warren Buffett · Factual · 18 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Warren Buffett Promise 18 Sep 2026 Warren Buffett becomes Chairman Emeritus of Berkshire and remains a director. Warren Buffett · Promise · 18 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 18 Sep 2026 Warren Buffett took the reins at Berkshire at age 34, after a shorter apprenticeship than Howard Buffett's 33 years as director. Warren Buffett · Factual · 18 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 18 Sep 2026 Howard Buffett succeeds Warren Buffett as Berkshire's Chairman. Warren Buffett · Factual · 18 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 18 Sep 2026 Warren Buffett has served Berkshire since 1965. Warren Buffett · Factual · 18 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 15 Sep 2026 Muse will be able to make people money and save people money. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 15 Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 15 Sep 2026 Any specific rigid AI regulatory framework put in place is very likely to be insufficient or out of date within a few months. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 15 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 15 Sep 2026 Meta's Watermelon model is bigger than its Avocado model. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 AI capabilities
Own records only Mark Zuckerberg Factual 15 Sep 2026 Zuckerberg uses both Muse and Meta AI. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Factual 15 Sep 2026 Muse Spark 1.3 is the latest model from a relatively smaller pre-train Meta did, internally codenamed Avocado. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Factual 15 Sep 2026 Zuckerberg posts the same content on both Threads and X. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Mark Zuckerberg Factual 15 Sep 2026 Zuckerberg is not aware of anyone else having anything close to Muse's Confidential VM system. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Delivered on time Mark Zuckerberg Promise 15 Sep 2026 Meta will ship its Watermelon model soon. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 15 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 15 Sep 2026 The product he called "this thing" will pay for itself by making users money and saving them money. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 15 Sep 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 15 Sep 2026 A small number of labs will not be permitted to control AI and accumulate large wealth for themselves; AI has to be broad-based. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 15 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 15 Sep 2026 Zuckerberg said he thinks some AI labs are starting to build and train more advanced models and then not release them. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Own records only Mark Zuckerberg Factual 15 Sep 2026 Meta designed its smart glasses from the beginning with privacy considerations in mind. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 15 Sep 2026 The primary purpose of AI will be the invention of new things, not automation. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 15 Sep 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Mark Zuckerberg Factual 15 Sep 2026 Meta's glasses flash a very visible light whenever they are recording. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 15 Sep 2026 Zuckerberg said he was very hopeful that the settlement would serve as a sort of legally binding framework to bring the whole industry into alignment on some of these things. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 15 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 15 Sep 2026 Zuckerberg said he thinks there is no way another company will be able to take an off-the-shelf model, post-train it a little and get something as good as a model designed from the ground up with data put into pre-training. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 15 Sep 2026 AI capabilities
Own records only Mark Zuckerberg Factual 15 Sep 2026 Meta already has many internal examples of people's agents interacting with each other. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 15 Sep 2026 Zuckerberg said he thinks that once the product he was discussing is running well, Meta will be able to get it in front of many hundreds of millions of people and eventually billions. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 15 Sep 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 15 Sep 2026 Meta is building out many gigawatts of compute. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 15 Sep 2026 Muse and Meta AI may converge over time. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 15 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Mark Zuckerberg Factual 15 Sep 2026 Meta is designing its models from the ground up to be good for the Muse agent use case. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 12 Sep 2026 And I think for too long the industry lied to people about the fact that this technology had risks. Dario Amodei · Factual · 12 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Dario Amodei Promise 12 Sep 2026 Anthropic commits unilaterally to the first step of the plan: giving third-party evaluators permanent, employee-level access to its systems. Dario Amodei · Promise · 12 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 12 Sep 2026 If AI is built in the wrong way, the probability of something bad happening is very high. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 12 Sep 2026 If left unchecked, AI's ability to improve itself and build the next generation of AI could outrun humans' ability to understand and control these systems. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 12 Sep 2026 International cooperation to put a speed limit on AI progress will be very difficult because incentives and military advantage are so large. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 12 Sep 2026 If AI is built in the right way, the probability of something bad happening is very low. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Dario Amodei Factual 12 Sep 2026 Dario Amodei has published a new essay, "We Must Pace the Frontier", arguing the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan. Dario Amodei · Factual · 12 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
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Factual AI capabilities

“we’re designing the models from the ground up to basically be good for this use case, which I think really matters.”

Mark Zuckerberg, Meta CEO 15 September 2026 Transcript: Mark Zuckerberg Interview on Meta's Muse AI Agent (Sources Podcast) (The Singju Post)

Meta is designing its models from the ground up to be good for the Muse agent use case.

Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

Concerns Meta's internal design intentions and process.

Cite this claim

Mark Zuckerberg, “Meta is designing its models from the ground up to be good for the Muse agent use case.” (said 15 September 2026). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_f776ae42f4ba, method 0.1.0+3f84d14d. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f776ae42f4ba

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.