Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

6,750 claims · page 67 of 68

6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nanobots will be introduced into the body without surgery, essentially by injecting or swallowing them. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By 2030, going to a web site will mean entering a full immersion virtual reality environment. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Amazon.com said it had been told that its American Customer Satisfaction Index score of 84 was the highest ever recorded for a service company in any industry. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Total human biological thinking capacity of about 10^26 calculations per second will never appreciably change, apart from a small genetic-engineering increase. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2001 Burry is a tax-paying US citizen. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Humanity will reverse-engineer the human brain to gain insights for building more intelligent machines. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Science and research methods
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2001 Burry personally had over $1 million invested in Scion Value Fund when writing the 2000 annual letter. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 2001 Improvements in disk space and processing power price performance will let Amazon do more and better real-time personalization of its website. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Mixed Michael Burry Factual 2001 The cost of employee stock option compensation is borne by shareholders through significant dilution. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nonbiological intelligence, growing at a double exponential rate, will vastly exceed biological intelligence well before the middle of the twenty-first century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By the end of the 21st century nonbiological thinking will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than that of biological humans. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Brain nanobots can all be directed to leave the body, so their use will be easily reversible. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nonbiological intelligence will ultimately dominate because it grows at a double exponential rate while biological intelligence is static. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 2001 Burry earns no income from Scion Capital unless members' annual return exceeds 6% net of expenses. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By the end of the decade (the 2000s), full immersion visual-auditory environments will be available, with images written onto the retinas by eyeglasses and contact lenses. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Michael Burry Factual 2001 As of the first quarter 2001 letter, Burry's Scion Capital fund was biased toward smaller capitalization stocks. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Biological human thinking is stuck at 1026 (presumably 10^26) calculations per second for all human brains, and this figure will not appreciably change even with bioengineering changes to the human genome. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2001 The vast majority of Burry's net worth, aside from money for modest living expenses, is invested in the Scion Value Fund. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By 2099, intelligence from human-machine civilization will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than in 2001, mostly nonbiological. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 The 1990s saw the most powerful deflationary forces in history. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Resolved false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Within ten years of 2001, biotechnology advances will add more than a year of life expectancy every year. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Science and research methods
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2001 The Scion Value Fund fell in Q3 2001 because several key stocks Burry chose declined in price. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Michael Burry Promise 2001 The Scion Value Fund's minimum initial investment for future investors will be raised to $250,000 as of the July 1, 2001 investment date. Michael Burry · Promise · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 From a practical perspective, people will accept the claims of nonbiological intelligent machines in the twenty-first century that they are conscious. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2001 Burry said he fully expected the Scion Value Fund's expense ratio for members to decrease quite significantly as assets under management grew with new investors. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2001 Burry keeps a list of about eighty stocks representing businesses with decent, predictable long-term characteristics. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2001 The Fund will receive full value in the future for its shares in its largest hotel holding. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 By the Anthropic principle, humanity is in the lead in the Universe. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Amazon.com's average spend per customer in 2000 was $134, up 19%. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Michael Burry Factual 2001 Burry told the room of potential clients that portfolio concentration and illiquidity do not define risk. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 If tubules multiplied neuron complexity a thousandfold, reaching human brain computational capacity would be delayed by only about 9 years under Kurzweil's model of computational growth. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Amazon.com served 20 million customers in 2000, up from 14 million in 1999. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 There is no evidence for the theory under discussion, and even if it were true, it would only delay replicating brain function by a decade or two. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Science and research methods
Own records only Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Bezos said the two investments were made because "we" knew "we" would not ourselves be entering those particular categories any time soon. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Own records only Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 Kurzweil's company could not even give away versions of its technology that were two generations old. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Amazon.com helped partner Toysrus.com sell more than $125 million of toys and video games in Q4 2000. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Michael Burry Factual 2001 Burry told a room of about 200 wealthy potential clients that risk is defined by ill-conceived investment, not by volatility. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nonbiological computing will overtake total human biological thinking capacity before 2030. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Brain implants based on distributed intelligent nanobots will ultimately expand human memories a trillionfold and vastly improve sensory, pattern recognition and cognitive abilities. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Expanding intelligence will overcome gravity and other cosmological forces and create the Universe it wants. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nanobot technology will be feasible within 30 years of 2001, based on miniaturization and cost reduction trends. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 2001 Jeff Bezos said that "we", in context Amazon.com, still believed that some 15% of retail commerce may ultimately move online. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2001 Economics and markets
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2001 Burry holds no personal securities account apart from his investment in Scion Value Fund, and his professional focus is solely that fund. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2001 Burry's investment principles, applied consistently, will continue to serve the Fund well despite future shocks. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2001 A rarely traded publicly traded real estate stock held by the Fund will recover and ultimately head much higher over time. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Ultra high levels of intelligence will expand outward at the speed of light, though this may not be the actual limit. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Other global risks
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Humanity will continue to build more powerful computational mechanisms because it creates enormous value. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 It is likely that there are no other civilizations of the kind we would have expected to notice, meaning that our civilization is in the lead. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Other global risks
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 According to Kurzweil's model, a civilization at Earth's level of radio transmission takes at most one to two centuries to become a SETI Type II civilization. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Other global risks
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 Human civilization is the most advanced in the Universe. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Other global risks
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Amazon.com's share price was down more than 80% from when Bezos wrote the previous year's shareholder letter. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Amazon.com's sales grew to $2.76 billion in 2000 from $1.64 billion in 1999. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Price performance of processing power is doubling about every 18 months (Moore's Law). Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2001 The future performance of one of the Fund's largest positions will have no correlation with the general market or further terrorist attacks. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2001 Because the Scion Value Fund added to several decliners, it was more valuable at the time of the letter than one quarter earlier. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Intelligence will be more powerful than impersonal cosmological forces. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 2001 Physical-world retailers will continue to use technology to reduce costs but not to transform the customer experience. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2001 Economics and markets
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Before the 22nd century begins, humanity will merge with its computational technology with no clear human-machine distinction. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2001 Over the next year or two, and especially five years, the Fund's investment in this position has a very high probability of producing substantial gains. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 The view that many advanced civilizations exist underlies SETI, was Kurzweil's own view until recently, and is the common informed view. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Other global risks
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By the second half of the 21st century there will be no clear distinction between human and machine intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Own records only Jeff Bezos Prediction 2001 If the price performance of bandwidth keeps doubling about every 9 months, Amazon.com will be able to use 60 times as much bandwidth per customer in 5 years while keeping its bandwidth cost per customer the same. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Guidance 2001 Amazon.com has set the goal of achieving a pro forma operating profit in the fourth quarter of 2001. Jeff Bezos · Guidance · 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Most of his readers are likely to be alive to see the Singularity. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nanobot technology will provide fully immersive, totally convincing virtual reality by positioning nanobots near interneuronal connections from the senses. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Biological brains will be vastly expanded through distributed nanobot-based implants. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 As intelligence saturates available matter and energy, it turns dumb matter into smart matter. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Exponential progress in computation and communication technologies is greatly empowering the individual. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 23 Oct 2000 Response at all levels to potentially large-scale lethal self-replicating entities will be vastly more intense than to computer viruses. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 23 Oct 2000 Other global risks
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Damage from self-replicating software is much less than one-tenth of 1 percent of the benefit received from computers and communication links. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 23 Oct 2000 In the years ahead there will be enormous gains in overcoming cancer and other diseases and in greatly extending human longevity. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 23 Oct 2000 Technology
Mixed Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 The 'immune system' that evolved in response to computer viruses has been largely effective. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Technological advances such as antibiotics and improved sanitation freed us from the prevalence of plagues, as Joy acknowledges. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Kurzweil and Bill Joy have held public and private dialogues on this issue and agree that technology will and should progress and that its dark side needs active concern. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Many long-range forecasts of technical feasibility dramatically underestimate the power of future technology because they rest on what the speaker calls the 'intuitive linear' view of technological progress rather than the 'historical exponential view'. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 23 Oct 2000 It will eventually be possible to have nanotechnology provide the codes within biological entities, replacing DNA, so the much safer Broadcast Architecture can be used. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 23 Oct 2000 Other global risks
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 The law of accelerating returns is based on a model of diverse technological processes that Kurzweil has developed over the past couple of decades. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 The Broadcast Architecture is impossible in the biological world, so nanotechnology can be made safer than biotechnology in at least this way. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Other global risks
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Computer viruses not usually being deadly to humans encourages more people to create and release them. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 23 Oct 2000 Abandoning broad areas of technology will only push them underground, where development continues unimpeded by ethics or regulation. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 23 Oct 2000 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Substantial portions of humanity still live precarious, fragile existences. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 The rate of paradigm shifts is currently doubling approximately every decade. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Ray Kurzweil played a role in bringing the dangers of self-replicating technologies to Bill Joy's attention. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Kurzweil's 'law of accelerating returns' does not rely merely on assuming Moore's Law continues. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 23 Oct 2000 The means will soon exist in a routine biotechnology laboratory to create a pathogen that could be more destructive to humans or other living organisms than an atomic bomb. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 23 Oct 2000 Biosecurity
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Examining technology data in many ways and time scales shows at least double exponential growth. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 The history of technology shows technological change is at least exponential. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 23 Oct 2000 If paradigm shifts keep doubling about every decade, technological progress in the 21st century will be equivalent to what the linear view would require on the order of 20,000 years. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 30 Mar 1999 There has been a lot of free software available over the 20 years before 1999. Bill Gates · Factual · 30 Mar 1999 Technology
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 30 Mar 1999 Linux and similar free software have proliferating different versions, because everybody can go into the source code, and everybody does. Bill Gates · Factual · 30 Mar 1999 Technology
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 1999 Amazon.com has served a cumulative 6.2 million customers as of the end of 1998. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1999 Economics and markets
Own records only Bill Gates Factual 1999 In 1996 Microsoft printed 350,000 paper copies of sales reports. Bill Gates · Factual · 1999 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 1999 In 1995 in The Road Ahead, Bill Gates used the term friction-free capitalism to describe how the Internet was helping create Adam Smith's ideal marketplace. Bill Gates · Factual · 1999 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 1999 Companies that invest early in digital nervous systems to capture and analyze customer input will differentiate themselves from competitors. Bill Gates · Prediction · 1999 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 1999 Amazon.com's sales grew from $148 million in 1997 to $610 million in 1998, a 313% increase. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1999 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 1999 25% of Amazon.com's fourth-quarter 1998 sales came from Amazon.co.uk, Amazon.de, and music, video and gift sales on Amazon.com. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1999 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 1999 Amazon.com reached a billion-dollar sales rate with just $30 million in inventory and $30 million in net plant and equipment. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1999 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 1999 The successful companies of the next decade (after 1999) will be those that use digital tools to reinvent the way they work. Bill Gates · Prediction · 1999 Economics and markets
Own records only Bill Gates Factual 1999 Microsoft's outsourcing tempered the expansion of its work force and reduced management overhead but did not stop the work force from growing. Bill Gates · Factual · 1999 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Jeff Bezos Factual 1999 Amazon.com's music store became the leading online music retailer in its first full quarter. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1999 Economics and markets
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Jeff Bezos

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Guidance Economics and markets

“As a first step, we’ve set the goal of achieving a pro forma operating profit in the fourth quarter.”

Jeff Bezos, CEO, writing in Amazon shareholder letter 2001 To our shareholders: Ouch. It's been a brutal year (2000 letter) (Amazon IR)

Amazon.com has set the goal of achieving a pro forma operating profit in the fourth quarter of 2001.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Guidance for Amazon.com's fourth quarter of 2001 (ending 2001-12-31), judged against the pro forma operating result Amazon reported for that quarter. True: Amazon reported a positive pro forma operating profit for Q4 2001 (above zero, on its own pro forma definition). Mostly true: a positive pro forma operating profit was reported, but a minor secondary detail differs, such as a slight difference in how pro forma was defined. Mostly false: the quarter ended at roughly break-even with a tiny pro forma operating loss, or profit was reached only on some other measure (for example one business segment) rather than companywide pro forma operating profit. False: Amazon reported a clear pro forma operating loss for Q4 2001. A profit reached first in a later quarter does not meet the guidance. Later revisions of the target do not change the test.

Evidence

  1. Earnings: Amazon reports pro forma profit, Lucent posts loss Computerworld · 22 January 2002
    “Pro forma operating profit was $59 million, compared with a loss of $60 million in the fourth quarter of 2000.”
  2. To our shareholders: Amazon.com, Inc. (2001 shareholder letter, signed by Jeffrey P. Bezos) Own record
    “we exceeded our goals for the fourth quarter with pro forma operating profit of $59 million and pro forma net profit of $35 million.”
  3. Amazon.com Announces 2001 Third Quarter Results; Expects Pro Forma Operating Profitability in Fourth Quarter; Looks Forward to Seventh Holiday Season Amazon.com, Inc. · 23 October 2001 Own record
    “We continue to expect pro forma operating profitability for the fourth quarter, and while there are no guarantees, we are well positioned to achieve this important milestone.”

Reasoning

Computerworld, an independent source, reported on 2002-01-22 that Amazon's pro forma operating profit was $59 million, compared with a $60 million loss in the fourth quarter of 2000. That makes the $59 million figure the Q4 2001 result (E1). Amazon's 2001 shareholder letter gives the same $59 million figure and says it beat its fourth-quarter goals (E2). In October 2001, Amazon said it still expected a pro forma operating profit for the fourth quarter (E3). A clearly positive companywide pro forma operating profit for Q4 2001 meets the guidance.

Cite this claim

Jeff Bezos, “Amazon.com has set the goal of achieving a pro forma operating profit in the fourth quarter of 2001.” (said 2001). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_f7568627281d, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f7568627281d

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.