6,750 claims · page 45 of 68
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 17 Oct 2019 | Facebook does not fact-check political ads. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 17 Oct 2019 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 17 Oct 2019 | Zuckerberg wanted Facebook's services in China because he believed in connecting the whole world and thought they might help create a more open society. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 17 Oct 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Promise | 17 Oct 2019 | Facebook's Oversight Board will have power to make final binding decisions on whether content stays up or comes down, which Facebook's team and Zuckerberg cannot overturn. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 17 Oct 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 17 Oct 2019 | Facebook does not operate Facebook, Instagram or its other services in China, which Zuckerberg gave as partly linked to his question about whether that is the internet we want. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 17 Oct 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Nate Silver | Factual | 30 Sep 2019 | A new poll shows support for impeachment way up and the share who strongly approve of Trump also up, with overall approval roughly unchanged. Nate Silver · Factual · 30 Sep 2019 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Nate Silver | Factual | 30 Sep 2019 | Two new Democratic primary polls released on 2019-09-30 show no negative fallout for Biden from the Ukraine story, and the HarrisX poll has him gaining a couple of points. Nate Silver · Factual · 30 Sep 2019 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true | Nate Silver | Factual | 29 Sep 2019 | Margins of error in individual state and national primary polls on support among black or Hispanic voters are often very high, for example around +/- 10%. Nate Silver · Factual · 29 Sep 2019 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Factual | 27 Sep 2019 | Democratic primary delegate allocation is highly proportional, and a candidate eventually needs a majority of delegates to win. Nate Silver · Factual · 27 Sep 2019 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Nate Silver | Factual | 26 Sep 2019 | In the Democratic primary, a candidate who gets under 15% in a given state or district receives no delegates. Nate Silver · Factual · 26 Sep 2019 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Nate Silver | Factual | 26 Sep 2019 | Pete Alonso's 2019 season is basically the closest season ever to Cecil Fielder's 1990 season. Nate Silver · Factual · 26 Sep 2019 | Other |
| Mostly true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 25 Sep 2019 | Nate Silver guessed that the public would see the contents of the Ukraine call transcript as very inappropriate conduct and would find the White House's quid pro quo spin unresponsive to their concerns. Nate Silver · Prediction · 25 Sep 2019 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Nate Silver | Prediction | 25 Sep 2019 | In what he called a first, possibly imprudent reaction, Nate Silver said it was hard to see how President Trump would not be impeached, given that the call transcript showed him pressuring Ukraine on Biden. Nate Silver · Prediction · 25 Sep 2019 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Factual | 23 Sep 2019 | Bernie Sanders polled at 11% in the highest-quality poll of Iowa released the weekend of 2019-09-21/22. Nate Silver · Factual · 23 Sep 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 23 Sep 2019 | Nate Silver said he still tended not to think public opinion on impeaching Trump would move much, but that it was hard to know. Nate Silver · Prediction · 23 Sep 2019 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 20 Sep 2019 | Marcus said he thinks it is just a question of whether "we will get there" gradually or through a lot of social unrest. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 20 Sep 2019 | AI, the economy and work |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 20 Sep 2019 | Driverless cars that are not actually reliable can be easily fooled. Gary Marcus · Factual · 20 Sep 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Factual | 20 Sep 2019 | If the paddle in the game Breakout is moved by three pixels, a deep-learning system trained on the game fails. Gary Marcus · Factual · 20 Sep 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Not yet due | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 20 Sep 2019 | Machines will achieve world-class scientific reasoning within the next 500 years (by 2519). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 20 Sep 2019 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 20 Sep 2019 | Smarter AI could solve many medical and scientific problems. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 20 Sep 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 20 Sep 2019 | The ultimate AI systems will have the memory capabilities of machines rather than of people. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 20 Sep 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 20 Sep 2019 | Marcus said he expects machines will eventually be able to do world-class scientific reasoning, though they are nowhere near that now. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 20 Sep 2019 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 20 Sep 2019 | Biological cognition involves many different mechanisms, working on different principles, that reinforce and counter-balance each other. Gary Marcus · Factual · 20 Sep 2019 | Science and research methods |
| Mostly true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 20 Sep 2019 | Deep learning does more than linear regression but is a more sophisticated form of statistical correlation. Gary Marcus · Factual · 20 Sep 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 20 Sep 2019 | Bad AI is leading to fatalities and undermining democracy. Gary Marcus · Factual · 20 Sep 2019 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 20 Sep 2019 | Marcus said he did not think machines would reach world-class scientific reasoning within the next five years (by 2024). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 20 Sep 2019 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 20 Sep 2019 | Marcus said he thinks it is inevitable that society will adopt universal basic income, and that the open question is whether this happens gradually or through social unrest. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 20 Sep 2019 | AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 20 Aug 2019 | Human drivers perform the three-point turns that turn the vehicles around at the end of the route each time. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 20 Aug 2019 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 20 Aug 2019 | Human drivers also operate the turn signals on the vehicles. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 20 Aug 2019 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 20 Aug 2019 | The driverless vehicles in question have two human drivers onboard. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 20 Aug 2019 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Factual | 16 Aug 2019 | As of August 2019, long-term interest rates were falling faster than short-term rates, inverting the yield curve. Ray Dalio · Factual · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 16 Aug 2019 | Greater interest rate cuts will occur as the world economy slows. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Ray Dalio | Factual | 16 Aug 2019 | The People's Bank of China did not push the yuan down in August 2019. Ray Dalio · Factual · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Ray Dalio | Factual | 16 Aug 2019 | The Trump administration cut corporate taxes, which pushed stock prices up. Ray Dalio · Factual · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 16 Aug 2019 | There will not be much change in US fiscal policy in the near term, before the next election. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 16 Aug 2019 | Gold probably has upside in price from its level in August 2019. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 16 Aug 2019 | Over the next three years from August 2019 there will be more currency wars. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Ray Dalio | Factual | 16 Aug 2019 | As of August 2019, the world largely looked to Dalio to be leveraged long, with a lot of borrowing to buy assets and companies. Ray Dalio · Factual · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Factual | 16 Aug 2019 | The US and China have a debtor-creditor relationship, not just a trade relationship. Ray Dalio · Factual · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 16 Aug 2019 | Economic conditions will take a turn for the worse over the next one to three years from August 2019. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 16 Aug 2019 | Dalio said he thought there was probably a 40 percent chance of a US recession in the next two years, before the next US election. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 16 Aug 2019 | The coming environment will feature excess capacity, debt restructurings and political issues. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 16 Aug 2019 | The United States might enter an environment of currency intervention to weaken the dollar. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 15 Aug 2019 | Demonization and government criminal intimidation of immigrants will only make the situation worse. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 15 Aug 2019 | Other |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 19 Jul 2019 | Patrick Winston of MIT has died (reported 2019-07-19). Rodney Brooks · Factual · 19 Jul 2019 | Field building and careers |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Evidence strikingly shows moral hazard was actually pretty weak, as the banks that lost the most were simply over-confident. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Tyler Cowen's book Markets and Cultural Voices was published about 15 years before 2019. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Employer monopsony power over workers is considerably weaker when workers live in populated areas. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 18 Jul 2019 | In future, with social media further along as well, the net social surplus from those will be much higher than it is now. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 18 Jul 2019 | Technology |
| Mixed | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Health care aside, the deadweight loss in question is not that large. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Generations of American intellectuals became Marxists and believed in the Soviet Union's economic growth powers because of fake news put into books. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | On average, people are more likely to defraud others when not working within a large organized business. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | When the minimum wage is raised, employers respond by lowering the quality of the job. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Measured consumer surplus from Facebook is quite high. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 18 Jul 2019 | On net, social media are more likely to limit the risk of war than to increase it. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 18 Jul 2019 | Technology |
| Mixed | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Tyler Cowen said he thinks there is some good evidence that social media are making a significant subset of teenage girls more miserable. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly false | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Israel is the only country other than the US with anything even vaguely like American venture capital. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Productivity growth has slowed down. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Tyler Cowen said that reading this material at about age 13 or 14 blew his mind. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | For-profit and nonprofit hospitals are statistically hard to tell apart in what they do, how they act and what they charge. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Travel experienced about 40 years of stagnation, followed by more advances in the last 5 years. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 18 Jul 2019 | Productivity growth will come back up again. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 18 Jul 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | In the 2008 bank bailouts, mainly bondholders rather than equity holders were bailed out. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Tyler Cowen uses his blog as his main method of social networking. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 18 Jul 2019 | Cowen predicted that "we" will get much better at "it" in the future; the quoted surroundings do not say what "it" refers to. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 18 Jul 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | The United States is by far the world's leading center of medical innovation. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Other |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 15 Jul 2019 | Around 2017, autonomous vehicle promises were made for deployment during 2019 through 2022. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 15 Jul 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 13 Jul 2019 | Fernando Corbato developed Multics, which led to Unix, which led to Linux. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 13 Jul 2019 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 13 Jul 2019 | Fernando Corbato of MIT has died (reported 2019-07-13). Rodney Brooks · Factual · 13 Jul 2019 | Field building and careers |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Prediction | 29 Jun 2019 | The UK government's commitment announced by Theresa May to the Global Fund will help save millions of lives from AIDS, TB and malaria. Bill Gates · Prediction · 29 Jun 2019 | Other |
| Mostly true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 28 Jun 2019 | Jumping spiders can count to three, with categories for one prey, two preys and many preys. Yann LeCun · Factual · 28 Jun 2019 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 27 Jun 2019 | Vinod Khosla gave a presentation at the Khosla Ventures CEO Summit with tips and advice for pitching to VCs. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 27 Jun 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 26 Jun 2019 | Khosla Ventures' portfolio includes 100 mostly deep tech companies, which were described in a 25-minute presentation. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 26 Jun 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 25 Jun 2019 | Nick Clegg, Facebook's VP of global affairs and communications, wrote an op-ed about the future of the Internet. Yann LeCun · Factual · 25 Jun 2019 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Prediction | 22 Jun 2019 | If more countries step up their fight against AIDS, TB and malaria through the Global Fund, 16 million lives can be saved. Bill Gates · Prediction · 22 Jun 2019 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 21 Jun 2019 | Vinod Khosla has been recommending direct listings since Spotify's direct listing, and the Spotify team helped him understand it. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 21 Jun 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 21 Jun 2019 | A new XLM model outperforms BERT on all GLUE tasks when trained on the same data. Yann LeCun · Factual · 21 Jun 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 20 Jun 2019 | Microsoft introduced new tools and features for educators on 2019-06-20. Satya Nadella · Factual · 20 Jun 2019 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Factual | 18 Jun 2019 | Calibra is a Facebook subsidiary and the first member of Libra. Yann LeCun · Factual · 18 Jun 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Satya Nadella | Factual | 18 Jun 2019 | Satya Nadella spoke with Marriott CEO Arne Sorenson the week before 2019-06-18 about digital technology in the hospitality industry. Satya Nadella · Factual · 18 Jun 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Factual | 18 Jun 2019 | French fries originated in France. Yann LeCun · Factual · 18 Jun 2019 | Other |
| Own records only | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 15 Jun 2019 | Most of a conversation centered on Vinod Khosla's 2017 piece and his 2014 piece on the need to worry about increasing income disparity. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 15 Jun 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 14 Jun 2019 | As of June 2019, nine of the ten recession risks Roubini and Rosa identified in summer 2018 are still in play. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 14 Jun 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 13 Jun 2019 | Vinod Khosla specifically said earlier that we would have music personalized to each person. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 13 Jun 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 12 Jun 2019 | Deaths increase in the vicinity of coal plants. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 12 Jun 2019 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Factual | 11 Jun 2019 | The figure given for PhD in Data Science is 47%. Yann LeCun · Factual · 11 Jun 2019 | Field building and careers |
| Resolved true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 10 Jun 2019 | PyTorch Hub, a repository offering pretrained models such as ResNet, BERT and GPT, was announced on 2019-06-10. Yann LeCun · Factual · 10 Jun 2019 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Factual | 9 Jun 2019 | In US facilities holding immigrant children, in violation of the law, no services are provided beyond food, water and very basic shelter. Yann LeCun · Factual · 9 Jun 2019 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Factual | 9 Jun 2019 | The US operates concentration camps for immigrant children. Yann LeCun · Factual · 9 Jun 2019 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Factual | 8 Jun 2019 | Malaria has been eliminated from Algeria and Argentina. Bill Gates · Factual · 8 Jun 2019 | Other |
| Mostly true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 3 Jun 2019 | The Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence's published AI ethics guidelines mention the protection of individual privacy. Yann LeCun · Factual · 3 Jun 2019 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 2 Jun 2019 | The UK used to have marginal tax rates of 102 percent and 95 percent. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 2 Jun 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Factual | 29 May 2019 | Bill Gates recently sat down for a conversation with author Jared Diamond. Bill Gates · Factual · 29 May 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Promise | 29 May 2019 | Microsoft aims to build datacenters in Sweden that will be among the most sustainable in the world. Satya Nadella · Promise · 29 May 2019 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Prediction | 24 May 2019 | Narendra Modi's continued commitment to improving health, nutrition and development will significantly improve the lives of many. Bill Gates · Prediction · 24 May 2019 | Other |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Factual | 20 May 2019 | Wind and solar power generation is expanding at record rates, so more people than ever get their electricity from renewable sources. Bill Gates · Factual · 20 May 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Factual | 17 May 2019 | Nearly every job created since the last recession has gone to someone with a post-high school education. Bill Gates · Factual · 17 May 2019 | AI, the economy and work |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 17 May 2019 | Microsoft introduced Minecraft Earth, built using technology from Azure to PlayFab. Satya Nadella · Factual · 17 May 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 16 May 2019 | Rubrik is younger than Cohesity and is growing much faster than Cohesity. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 16 May 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 16 May 2019 | More than 1 billion people around the world have disabilities. Satya Nadella · Factual · 16 May 2019 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 13 May 2019 | The US-China trade war will likely hurt China more than the United States. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 13 May 2019 | Economics and markets |
“I would be more worried almost that the United States might enter an environment of currency intervention to weaken its currency.”
Ray Dalio, Bridgewater founder, interviewee 16 August 2019 CNBC Transcript: Ray Dalio, Founder, Bridgewater Associates - Part I (CNBC)
The United States might enter an environment of currency intervention to weaken the dollar.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Reasoning
'Might' prediction with no horizon; not falsifiable.
Cite this claim
Ray Dalio, “The United States might enter an environment of currency intervention to weaken the dollar.” (said 16 August 2019). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_f67c98ae0e66, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f67c98ae0e66
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.