Claims

Factual · Economics and markets

“we’re 61 percent of the way back up.”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire chairman · 23 September 2010 · CNBC Transcript: Becky Quick speaks with Warren Buffett (CNBC)

Berkshire's railroad business (BNSF) shipments are 61 percent of the way back up from the recession bottom toward the prior peak.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Factual claim judged as of 23 September 2010. True: BNSF weekly or monthly carload/volume data show that by about September 2010 shipments had recovered about 61% (roughly 55–67%) of the drop from the recession trough back toward the pre-recession peak. Mostly true: the recovery is within about 50–72%. Mixed: data are unclear or the recovery figure depends heavily on the choice of peak and trough, with reasonable measures falling both near and far from 61%. Mostly false: recovery was substantial but clearly different (e.g. under 50% or over 72%). False: volumes had not recovered at all or had fully passed the prior peak.

Evidence

1. AAR Reports Weekly Rail Carload Volume Sets New 2010 Record Powder Bulk Solids (reprinting the Association of American Railroads release) · 10 September 2010

   “In the West, carload volume was up 8.4 percent from the same week last year and up .9 percent from two years ago.”

2. Burlington Northern Santa Fe Reports Fourth Quarter/Full Year 2009 Results Railfanning.org · 12 February 2010

   “The remaining variance was due to unit volumes, which were 12 percent lower as a result of the economic downturn, partially offset by improved yields.”

3. [PDF] BNSF Railway BNSF Railway (Texas Transportation Forum presentation) · 5 January 2011 Own record

   “Weekly volumes reflect continued slow recovery: YTD peak is 683K in early September, 61% trough-to-peak”

4. Rail Intermodal Traffic at 2008 levels, Carload Traffic Lags Calculated Risk · 11 October 2010

   “As the graph above shows, rail carload traffic collapsed in November 2008, and now, a year into the recovery, carload traffic has only recovered half way.”

5. Rail Intermodal Traffic at 2008 levels, Carload Traffic Lags Calculated Risk · 11 October 2010

   “U.S. freight railroads originated 1,487,511 carloads in September 2010, an average of 297,502 carloads per week. That’s up 7.7% from September 2009 and down 7.5% from September 2008 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.”

6. AAR: Slight improvement in July monthly rail carloads | Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen · 13 August 2010

   “monthly rail carloads for July 2010 were up 4.1 percent compared with the same period last year, but still down 14.6 percent compared with July 2008.”

Reasoning

BNSF's own January 2011 presentation (E3) gives its weekly volumes peaking at 683K in early September 2010, which it describes as "61% trough-to-peak". That matches the claimed figure and the timing. The independent evidence covers all U.S. railroads, not BNSF: national carload traffic had "only recovered half way" by October 2010 (E4), and September 2010 carloads were still 7.5% below September 2008 (E5). That points to a substantial but partial recovery, consistent with the claim. The BNSF-specific figure itself comes only from the company's own record, so the independent sources support the general picture rather than the exact number.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Berkshire's railroad business (BNSF) shipments are 61 percent of the way back up from the recession bottom toward the prior peak.” (said 23 September 2010). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_f162f0c43316, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f162f0c43316