Claims

Promise · Their own work or organisation

“The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.”

Elon Musk, Tesla CEO, blog author · 20 July 2016 · Master Plan, Part Deux (Tesla)

Tesla's version 1.0 of its Model 3 factory machine will probably arrive in 2018.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Hedged prediction ('probably'), with a horizon of 2018-12-31. 'Version 1.0' means the Model 3 production line reaching its mature, fully engineered intended form. Tesla's own description of the line as completed or matured counts. So does sustained production at its stated design rate (around 5,000 Model 3s per week) on the planned production lines, rather than only on stopgap lines. TRUE: Tesla records or credible reporting show this was reached during 2018. MOSTLY TRUE: it was reached in 2018 with a minor caveat, for example the rate was sustained but some planned automation was still being finished. MOSTLY FALSE: in 2018 there was only partial progress, such as the target rate hit briefly or reached mainly with improvised lines, or version 1.0 was reached only in 2019 or later. FALSE: Tesla statements or reporting from around the end of 2018 show the Model 3 line was still well short of its intended form and rate.

Evidence

1. Tesla Fourth Quarter & Full Year 2018 Update Tesla, Inc. Own record

   “Model 3’s production rate progressively improved through Q4, with December 2018 being our highest volume month ever.”

2. Tesla Fourth Quarter & Full Year 2018 Update Tesla, Inc. Own record

   “By the end of this year, we expect to be able to produce Model 3 at this rate on a sustained basis.”

3. New report inside Tesla factory says Model 3 production improving Green Car Reports · 20 August 2018

   “In its latest earnings report, Tesla said it had produced at least 5,000 Model 3s in additional weeks, but did not indicate that it had achieved that goal consistently.”

4. New report inside Tesla factory says Model 3 production improving Green Car Reports · 20 August 2018

   “They noted that both Model 3 assembly lines still looked to be having teething problems with frequent shutdowns, especially on the highly automated main assembly line (GA3).”

Reasoning

Tesla's Q4 2018 update says Model 3 output improved through Q4, with December 2018 its highest-volume month (E1). The same letter says Tesla expects to produce Model 3 at "this rate on a sustained basis" by the end of "this year", most likely meaning 2019. If so, sustained production was not reached in 2018 (E2). Independent reporting from August 2018 says Tesla had produced at least 5,000 Model 3s in some weeks but had not indicated it was doing so consistently, and that both assembly lines appeared to be having teething problems with frequent shutdowns, especially the highly automated GA3 line (E3, E4). This matches the criteria's description of partial progress in 2018: the target was hit only briefly and was not sustained on mature lines.

Cite this claim

Elon Musk, “Tesla's version 1.0 of its Model 3 factory machine will probably arrive in 2018.” (said 20 July 2016). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_eedd78a75a0d, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_eedd78a75a0d