6,750 claims · page 35 of 68
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 24 May 2022 | About 20 years had passed since Microsoft launched Xbox, as of 2022. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 24 May 2022 | Microsoft found that a direct connection to one's immediate manager was the biggest factor in effective onboarding. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 24 May 2022 | Nadella spent most of his 32-year professional career in middle-management roles. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Satya Nadella | Factual | 24 May 2022 | First-line managers are the most stressed group because they lack support and connection from the company. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Nate Silver | Factual | 24 May 2022 | In May 2022, Silver said Trump was not *that* far ahead of DeSantis in polls, and that it was pretty even once name recognition was accounted for. Nate Silver · Factual · 24 May 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 24 May 2022 | Microsoft drew on Carol Dweck's growth mindset work, which helped it move from 'know-it-alls' to 'learn-it-alls'. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 24 May 2022 | Microsoft's Flight Simulator, a PC game predating Xbox, is as old as Microsoft. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Satya Nadella | Prediction | 24 May 2022 | Gaming as a horizontal capability will probably inform the next phase of the internet, which people call the metaverse. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 24 May 2022 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Nate Silver | Factual | 21 May 2022 | Joe Biden's approval rating never had a spike. Nate Silver · Factual · 21 May 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 29 Apr 2022 | Anthropic announced a new fundraising round on 2022-04-29. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 29 Apr 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | GiveWell | Promise | 6 Apr 2022 | Each contest entry will be reviewed by at least one GiveWell researcher with substantial experience with its cost-effectiveness analyses. GiveWell · Promise · 6 Apr 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | GiveWell | Promise | 6 Apr 2022 | GiveWell will publish winning contest entries online, anonymously if requested. GiveWell · Promise · 6 Apr 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | GiveWell | Prediction | 6 Apr 2022 | GiveWell likely will not be able to share a full response to all contest entries, due to limited research capacity. GiveWell · Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | GiveWell | Factual | 6 Apr 2022 | Each of the six listed analyses relates to a program to which GiveWell has directed substantial funding (generally tens of millions of dollars) and which it intends to consider for substantial future funding. GiveWell · Factual · 6 Apr 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | GiveWell | Prediction | 6 Apr 2022 | Excellent contest entries may lead to changes in how GiveWell allocates millions of dollars of funding. GiveWell · Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Delivered on time | GiveWell | Promise | 6 Apr 2022 | GiveWell will announce contest winners by December 15, 2022. GiveWell · Promise · 6 Apr 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | GiveWell | Promise | 6 Apr 2022 | GiveWell will give a $500 participation prize to other qualifying entries, capped at 50 prizes for the first 50 submissions. GiveWell · Promise · 6 Apr 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | GiveWell | Prediction | 6 Apr 2022 | Most strong contest entries will focus on one of the six listed programs. GiveWell · Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | GiveWell | Factual | 6 Apr 2022 | GiveWell is launching a contest for critiques of its cost-effectiveness analyses. GiveWell · Factual · 6 Apr 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | GiveWell | Promise | 6 Apr 2022 | GiveWell will share a full, substantive response to the winning and runner-up contest entries. GiveWell · Promise · 6 Apr 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | GiveWell | Factual | 6 Apr 2022 | GiveWell makes its cost-effectiveness analyses publicly available. GiveWell · Factual · 6 Apr 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Delivered on time | GiveWell | Promise | 6 Apr 2022 | GiveWell will award $20,000 to the first-place entry, $10,000 to the runner-up and $5,000 to the honorable mention in its contest. GiveWell · Promise · 6 Apr 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | GiveWell | Prediction | 6 Apr 2022 | Contest entries focused on the six listed programs will likely have a higher chance of meaningfully influencing GiveWell's overall allocation of funding. GiveWell · Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Apr 2022 | Ultimately solutions to all medical problems will be found using simulated biology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Apr 2022 | Reaching human-level AI will not need a massive new breakthrough beyond current neural nets with additional changes. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Apr 2022 | It will become possible to test treatments on a million simulated humans within a few days, rather than a few hundred real humans. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | Apr 2022 | The US government has a plan to create new vaccines within a few months to three months. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Apr 2022 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Apr 2022 | Ultimately drug testing will no longer need to be done on humans, because simulated biology will replace it. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Apr 2022 | In the 2030s humans will begin to merge with AI, connecting their minds to the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Apr 2022 | AI will pass the Turing test by 2029. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Apr 2022 | By 2045 most human thinking will take place in the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Apr 2022 | AI will probably pass the Turing test earlier than 2029. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 24 Mar 2022 | Apple has a billion iPhones in use. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 | Technology |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 24 Mar 2022 | Zuckerberg said that a 15-year project he described has six or seven key unknowns, and that multiple teams are trying different approaches to them. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 24 Mar 2022 | At some point VR will get haptics. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 24 Mar 2022 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 24 Mar 2022 | The original virtual reality devices that Zuckerberg referred to as the ones "we had" did not have hand presence. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 | Technology |
| Not yet due | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 24 Mar 2022 | Zuckerberg suggested that maybe five years from now, if they were doing the same conversation, AR glasses could let a hologram of him sit on the couch next to the interviewer. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 24 Mar 2022 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 24 Mar 2022 | Heat dissipation is one of the biggest limiting factors for processors running in smart glasses. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 24 Mar 2022 | Each of Meta's company values is coupled with an operational effort. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 24 Mar 2022 | A lot of research shows that people's social, economic and other opportunities are generally pretty anchored to where they physically are. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 24 Mar 2022 | People will increasingly use these technologies to be present in places they physically cannot be. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 24 Mar 2022 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 24 Mar 2022 | Until the last few years, Meta had not focused as much on building awe-inspiring things, as opposed to widely used products. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 24 Mar 2022 | Mark Zuckerberg said that Tobi Lütke, founder and CEO of Shopify, recommended to him the book under discussion. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 | Other |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Promise | 24 Mar 2022 | Meta's next VR headset version will include eye sensors enabling realistic eye contact in virtual reality. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 24 Mar 2022 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 24 Mar 2022 | Workrooms will probably learn what it needs to do to become a great product a lot faster than many others in the space. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 24 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Mark Zuckerberg | Promise | 24 Mar 2022 | Zuckerberg hopes that by the end of this decade 50 percent or more of Meta's workforce will work distributed and remotely. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 24 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 24 Mar 2022 | When Mark Zuckerberg went to college, he planned to major in classics. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 24 Mar 2022 | Mark Zuckerberg says no interviewer had previously started an interview by asking him about fencing. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 24 Mar 2022 | Mark Zuckerberg says he does not think he has done another interview or podcast where so much was discussed about sports. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 24 Mar 2022 | The first haptics will not have high resolution, but will improve every year. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 24 Mar 2022 | Technology |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 24 Mar 2022 | Zuckerberg said Meta basically encodes a framework of goals, metrics to track those goals, and countermetrics into all of its teams across the company. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 24 Mar 2022 | The metaverse will lead to the creation of many different virtual worlds with different rules. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 24 Mar 2022 | Technology |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 24 Mar 2022 | Meta has a rule that everyone in leadership or management should do at least one standing meeting a week in Workrooms. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 24 Mar 2022 | Workrooms is a VR product Meta built for collaboration. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Mar 2022 | Tyler Cowen published a Conversation with Lydia Davis. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Tyler Cowen | Promise | 19 Mar 2022 | Tyler Cowen will make an Emergent Ventures donation to Mylovanov, with his team contacting him to ensure secure delivery. Tyler Cowen · Promise · 19 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Factual | 14 Mar 2022 | Scott Alexander said that in February 2022 he had discussed problems with the Metaculus leaderboard. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Factual | 14 Mar 2022 | In February 2022 Scott Alexander suggested that Manifold Markets add a loan feature to boost investment in long-term markets. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Scott Alexander | Factual | 14 Mar 2022 | The probability shown in the chart in the post was almost monotonically decreasing, lower each day than the day before. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Mar 2022 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Factual | 14 Mar 2022 | Scott Alexander said that, if he understood it right, in the study the average forecaster did worse than the average expert, but Tetlock used clever aggregation methods for his superforecasters while the CIA did not use such methods for its experts. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Mar 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Factual | 14 Mar 2022 | A team described as some of the best superforecasters in the world won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by a large margin, described as around twice as good as the next-best team in relative Brier score. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Mar 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Mostly true | Scott Alexander | Factual | 14 Mar 2022 | Early in the Russia-Ukraine war prediction markets gave Ukraine poor odds, and by March 2022 they were much more optimistic about Ukraine. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Mar 2022 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 11 Mar 2022 | The eighteenth cohort of Emergent Ventures winners was announced. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 11 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 9 Mar 2022 | Tyler Cowen published a Conversation with Sam Bankman-Fried. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 9 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 7 Mar 2022 | An excerpt from Tyler Cowen's book Talent, with Daniel Gross, was published. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 7 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Daniela Amodei said she thinks some of "our employees" identify as effective altruists, which she said means they are especially worried about the potential for long-term harms from AI. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Field building and careers |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | The goal of NIST's AI Risk Management Framework is to develop more monitoring tools for AI risk and its management. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly false | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Shareholders cannot sue Anthropic for failing to maximize financial returns when those conflict with its public benefit. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | As of 2022 there is no required disclosure of whether a person is interacting with an AI system or a human. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Daniela Amodei said Dario Amodei was getting a PhD in a technical field at the time and so was not working directly on the interest area she described, which she connected with her start in international development. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic's PBC status legally ensures that, if profit and public benefit conflict, public benefit prevails. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic is looking to hire front-end engineers for interfaces and tooling for internal research. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Field building and careers |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Machine learning and AI is still a fairly new field. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | As a public benefit corporation, Anthropic has more legal protection from shareholders if it fails to maximize financial interests in favor of its public benefit mission. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic's Twitter handle is @anthropicAI. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Promise | 4 Mar 2022 | Daniela Amodei said Anthropic hoped to publish soon a paper that discusses the role government could play in funding academic AI safety research. Daniela Amodei · Promise · 4 Mar 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic conducts interpretability research aimed at seeing inside language models and understanding their workings. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Public benefit corporations are fairly similar to C corporations, a standard corporate entity. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic has a Twitter account. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | She said that she and her colleagues think government has already been starting to fund a lot more academic safety research. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Own records only | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Daniela and Dario Amodei both donated small amounts to global health organizations, such as malaria prevention groups, while still in school. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic's website states its mission as building steerable, interpretable and reliable AI systems. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic's societal impacts team is about 1.5 people and has been working on AI evaluations. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | At Anthropic there is no strong distinction between research and engineering: researchers write code and engineers contribute to research. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Prediction | 4 Mar 2022 | Daniela Amodei said she hopes that in the next few years many different groups will develop more practical tools and techniques for advancing AI safety research. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 4 Mar 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Own records only | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic's policy team is about 1.5 people as of late 2022. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | As of November 2022, the organisation Daniela Amodei was speaking for was very bottlenecked on engineering talent. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Field building and careers |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Prediction | 4 Mar 2022 | More advanced AI systems could bring transformative benefits in areas such as renewable energy, health, disease detection and economic growth. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 4 Mar 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic generally tweets about its recent research releases from its Twitter account. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic has had a lot of success hiring people accomplished in other fields, especially other technical fields. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Field building and careers |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Stripe had about 40 people when Daniela Amodei joined. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Daniela Amodei said she thinks many of Anthropic's best ML and research engineers came from software or infrastructure engineering backgrounds and had not necessarily worked in ML before. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Field building and careers |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic has been supporting NIST in developing an AI Risk Management Framework. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic is currently focused on research and development rather than deployment of products for revenue. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | People use online therapists, and sometimes the advice is backed by an AI system. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic's website anthropic.com is the best place to see most of its recent work. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic staff all have lunch together every day. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic is hiring a lot of people as of March 2022. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic chose to incorporate as a public benefit corporation when it was founded. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic has about 35 employees as of late 2022. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
“We make our analyses publicly available because transparency enables people to evaluate our work and conclusions.”
GiveWell, unsigned organisational page 6 April 2022 GiveWell's Change Our Mind Contest (GiveWell)
GiveWell makes its cost-effectiveness analyses publicly available.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
What would count as true or false
Judged as of 2022-04-06. True: GiveWell publicly posted its cost-effectiveness analyses, such as its CEA spreadsheets for top charities, on its website as of that date. Mostly true: most analyses were public but some notable ones were not. Mixed: only around half were public. Mostly false: only a few were public. False: the analyses were generally not publicly available.
Evidence
- GiveWell's Cost-Effectiveness Analyses GiveWell Own record
“Cost-effectiveness models for GiveWell's Top Charities can be accessed via the links below: - Malaria Consortium's Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention Program - Against Malaria Foundation - Helen Keller Intl's Vitamin A Supplementation Program - New Incentives”
- 2021 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Changelog GiveWell · 5 May 2021 Own record
“Our leverage and funging adjustments for AMF are calculated on a non-public spreadsheet. We have not made this spreadsheet publicly available because we have not received permission to publish country-specific cost estimates we received from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, which our calculations rely on.”
- 2021 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Changelog GiveWell · 28 September 2021 Own record
“Link to the cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) file: 2021 CEA — version 3”
- Process for Identifying Top Charities GiveWell · July 2025 Own record
“we publish the details of our analysis, spell out our major assumptions and allow readers to fill in their own.”
Reasoning
GiveWell's 2021 changelog links to a published CEA workbook (version 3, dated 28 September 2021), which shows its top-charity cost-effectiveness analyses were posted on its website before April 2022 [E3]. The same changelog states that the leverage and funging adjustments for the Against Malaria Foundation were calculated on a non-public spreadsheet because of third-party data restrictions, so at least one component was not public [E2]. E1 and E4 describe the practice of publication, but they reflect later page versions and come from the subject itself. All the evidence comes from GiveWell, but E3 is the published output itself; on that basis, most analyses were public with a notable exception.
Cite this claim
GiveWell, “GiveWell makes its cost-effectiveness analyses publicly available.” (said 6 April 2022). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_ee7179b0c845, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ee7179b0c845
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.