Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

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6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 10 Jul 2017 Powerful lobbies exist in the United States largely because of the country's scale, which makes lobbying payoffs large enough to justify the spending. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Other
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 10 Jul 2017 Contrary to what political scientists say, people in practice do exercise the right to leave a jurisdiction. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Other
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 10 Jul 2017 Fooled by Randomness is close to 20 years old. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Nassim Taleb Factual 10 Jul 2017 Taleb said he had posted a lot of things online and organized the book based on the excitement the chapters brought, adding "Of course, not 100%." Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Nassim Taleb Factual 10 Jul 2017 Automatic transmissions used to be vastly more expensive than manual ones, though costs have since come down. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 10 Jul 2017 Taleb made many local mistakes in his books and went back and corrected almost all of them without anybody knowing. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Nassim Taleb Factual 10 Jul 2017 The first 40 pages of the Skin in the Game manuscript explain skin in the game. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Nassim Taleb Factual 10 Jul 2017 The United States is a federation, not a republic. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Other
Mostly true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 22 Jun 2017 Facebook used to have a sense that connecting people online would by itself make many things in the world better. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 22 Jun 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Promise 22 Jun 2017 Zuckerberg said he thought the new Groups tools gave Facebook a good shot at connecting a billion people to meaningful communities within about five years. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 22 Jun 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Promise 16 Jun 2017 SpaceX plans to send a Dragon 2 propulsive lander to Mars in about two years, and probably another Dragon mission in 2020. Elon Musk · Promise · 16 Jun 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 28 May 2017 In 1992 it was widely held that the internet was for academics and nerds, with no use case for ordinary people. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 28 May 2017 Technology
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 28 May 2017 The University of Illinois, where Andreessen went to college, was then one of four US universities government-funded as hubs for NSFNET, which became the internet. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 28 May 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 28 May 2017 In 1993 the University of Illinois campus had broadband at the level people have in their homes in 2017. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 28 May 2017 Technology
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Factual 28 May 2017 ARPA (now DARPA) funded a military network originally conceived for nuclear command and control. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 28 May 2017 Technology
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 17 Apr 2017 Amazon has been engaged in the practical application of machine learning for many years. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 17 Apr 2017 AI capabilities
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 17 Apr 2017 Jeff Bezos said he told the Amazon Studios team it was debatable whether a recently greenlit original would be interesting enough, that it was complicated to produce, that the business terms were not that good, and that there were other opportunities. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 17 Apr 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Factual 17 Apr 2017 Machine learning drives our algorithms for demand forecasting, product search ranking, product and deals recommendations, merchandising… Jeff Bezos · Factual · 17 Apr 2017 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 17 Apr 2017 An established company in Day 2 might coast for decades, but eventual decline would still come. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 17 Apr 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeff Bezos Factual 17 Apr 2017 Jeff Bezos frequently uses "disagree and commit" on decisions himself. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 17 Apr 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Factual 17 Apr 2017 Jeff Bezos works in an Amazon building named Day 1 and kept the name when he moved buildings. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 17 Apr 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 17 Apr 2017 Jeff Bezos has been reminding people that it is Day 1 for a couple of decades. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 17 Apr 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 17 Apr 2017 Much of the impact of machine learning will be less visible, quietly improving core operations. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 17 Apr 2017 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Factual 17 Apr 2017 Jeff Bezos said he replied right away to the team with "I disagree and commit and hope it becomes the most watched thing we've ever made." Jeff Bezos · Factual · 17 Apr 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 17 Apr 2017 No customer asked Amazon to create the Prime membership program, yet customers turned out to want it. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 17 Apr 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 11 Apr 2017 Church councils such as Nicea and Chalcedon and various synods of bishops insisted on the dual nature (man and god) of Jesus Christ. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 11 Apr 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Own records only Nassim Taleb Factual 11 Apr 2017 A few months later, Taleb met the man again and, while trying to shake hands with him, noticed a scar where the icepick had come out of his hand. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 11 Apr 2017 Other
Own records only Nassim Taleb Factual 11 Apr 2017 At the end of a party, a man named David stood by the coat check using a handkerchief to sop up drops of blood from his hand. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 11 Apr 2017 Other
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 11 Apr 2017 The Trinity doctrine led other monotheists to see traces of polytheism in Christianity and caused many Christians captured by the Islamic State to be beheaded. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 11 Apr 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 11 Apr 2017 The Orthodox Church goes further, making the human side flow upwards rather than downwards, as in Athanasius of Alexandria's fourth-century statement that Jesus Christ was incarnate so we could be made God. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 11 Apr 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Own records only Nassim Taleb Factual 11 Apr 2017 On seeing Donald Trump standing next to other Republican primary candidates, Taleb became certain Trump would win the primary stage regardless of what he said or did. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 11 Apr 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 15 Mar 2017 Future technology will let humanity meet the physical needs of all humans. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 15 Mar 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 15 Mar 2017 By 2029, computers will have human-level intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 15 Mar 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 15 Mar 2017 There is not just one or two AIs in the world today; there are billions. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 15 Mar 2017 AI capabilities
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 15 Mar 2017 By the 2030s, humans will connect their neocortex to the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 15 Mar 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 15 Mar 2017 Kurzweil says that connecting computers to human brains and the cloud is not just a future scenario but already exists in part today. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 15 Mar 2017 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 15 Mar 2017 The merging of computers with human intelligence is already here in part and will accelerate. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 15 Mar 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2017 It took decades before multi-layer neural nets demonstrated that Rosenblatt's view on layered perceptrons was right. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2017 AI capabilities
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2017 The neocortex, a layer covering the brain, emerged in mammals two hundred million years ago and is organized as a hierarchy of modules. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2017 AI capabilities
Mixed Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2017 In recent years Minsky lamented the 'success' of his book and had become respectful of recent gains in neural net technology. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2017 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2017 The Minsky-Papert perceptron theorem applies only to single-layer perceptrons. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2017 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2017 As of 2017, neural nets provided near human-level and in some cases superhuman performance on tasks such as translating languages, driving cars and playing go. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2017 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2017 Kurzweil expressed optimism, which he said Dormehl shares, that we will be able to deploy AI as brain extenders to keep ahead of the economic curve of accelerating progress. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2017 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2017 Marvin Minsky was Kurzweil's mentor for 54 years until Minsky's death about a year before March 2017. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2017 The average job today (as of 2017) pays 11 times as much per hour in constant dollars as it did a century ago. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2017 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2017 Ray Kurzweil said he visited Rosenblatt in 1962 when he was 14. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2017 Minsky and Papert's book Perceptrons proved a theorem that perceptrons cannot distinguish connected from disconnected figures. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2017 AI capabilities
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2017 The perceptron machine Rosenblatt showed Kurzweil in 1962 could not perform any of the things that, as Dormehl recounts, had been claimed at the time and ridiculed. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2017 AI capabilities
Mixed Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2017 For every job that was eliminated, several new ones were invented, with the work force growing from 24 million people (31 percent of the population) in 1900 to 142 million (44 percent of the population) in 2015. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2017 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett guessed that the company he was discussing had about 5.25 billion shares outstanding, and that ten years later it would have substantially fewer. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he had never met the CEOs of any of the four airlines, though he added that he may have met one and shaken his hand at a Texas business Hall of Fame event. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he thought the US economy would be better off four years from February 2017, even though he disagreed with some specific policies. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he usually sees him maybe twice a year, at Sun Valley and perhaps one other time. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said Berkshire had received nothing but good reports about the CEO, whom Greg Abel had known 20 years earlier. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 The Dow will certainly approach 100,000 within the lifetime of the person addressed, requiring only that the American system keeps functioning much as it has. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said that once he and the two others he referred to as "the three of us" learned that it was regarded as unfriendly, they had no intention of making one; the surrounding remarks refer to the 3G people and to Unilever. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 The odds are very high that any US administration ends up with the economy better four years later than at present. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett guessed that there would be another deal involving Kraft Heinz at some point, and said he did not know when. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 The odds are good that the US will have economic prosperity in any given four-year period. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 In 1963, during American Express's Salad Oil Scandal, Buffett visited restaurants to see how people used the American Express card, an approach he first used then. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 Berkshire Hathaway does not make hostile takeover bids. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 A company may not buy over 10 percent of a financial company unless it becomes a bank holding company. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he would bet the Berkshire employee bracket contest would go over 100,000 entries in 2017, after 85,000 entries in 2016. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Warren Buffett Promise 27 Feb 2017 Berkshire will run the same NCAA bracket contest among its employees in 2017 as it did in 2016. Warren Buffett · Promise · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 As of February 2017, no acquisition deal is in the works at Berkshire. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 Berkshire closed its purchase of $3 billion of Dow Chemical preferred stock in April 2009, when the market had collapsed. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he does not work on acquisitions "that way" himself, referring back to an approach mentioned just before. He said he tells the seller he will make an offer if they want one and won't make one if they don't. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 Unilever was the only deal in that area that Buffett seriously thought about and that made sense. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Promise 27 Feb 2017 If exactly one Berkshire employee reaches the sweet 16 in the contest, that employee will receive $1 million a year for life. Warren Buffett · Promise · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 As of February 2017, there is no backup deal after the Unilever approach. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said Berkshire tried to time its sales of Dow Chemical stock once it rose above the conversion price, selling more aggressively as the price rose, because it did not want to own the roughly 72 million common shares. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 On 27 February 2017, asked whether he was working on anything, Buffett said he is always looking but that there was "nothing close". Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 Berkshire's US Air preferred stock had a clause under which unpaid dividends compounded at a good rate. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 12 Jan 2017 At least one car manufacturer fears human drivers will bully level 2 self-driving cars, so its level 3 real-world trial cars look identical to conventional models. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 12 Jan 2017 Technology
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 12 Jan 2017 In level 2 and 3 autonomy, the time available for a person to reorient and respond is often much shorter than people need. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 12 Jan 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Self-parking cars will take up much less room than human-parked cars, so there will be an economic incentive to develop garages where such cars are tightly packed. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 At some point every car will be level 5 autonomous and people will no longer be allowed to drive. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 No robot or perception system today, or in the foreseeable future, can determine the state of the world well enough to know which of Asimov's laws applies. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 The day when all cars are level 5 and manual driving is gone will not be soon, and flying cars will come even later. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Reasonable level 4 systems will be technically possible in the not too distant future, but social issues will keep their domains of operation rather restricted. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Brooks guessed that deaths involving driverless cars will never come close to the high numbers of deaths that society has accepted for human-driven cars. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 12 Jan 2017 Gill Pratt, CEO of Toyota Research Institute, said in early January 2017 that none in the automobile or IT industries are close to achieving true Level 5 autonomy. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 12 Jan 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Autonomous delivery vehicles may be deployed case by case in not too many years, but it will be a long time before they are close to universal as a means of delivery. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Autonomous trucks will convoy behind a single human-occupied truck in designated highway lanes, with humans required in each truck off the highway. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Factual 12 Jan 2017 As of January 2017 there are only fifteen fully driverless train systems in the United States, mostly in airports, each with at most a handful of miles of track. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 12 Jan 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Level 4 autonomous cars will operate in limited geographic domains with no pedestrians or other human drivers. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 The public will push back against level 5 and widespread level 4 autonomy during trials and early deployments. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Moral dilemma questions for self-driving cars (trolley-problem type) will have no practical impact on any car or person for the foreseeable future. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Deployment of level 4 autonomy will be slower than technology enthusiasts expect, led by various special cases. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 12 Jan 2017 In Asimov's book the Three Laws of Robotics were used as a plot source, with ambiguities and conflicts between the laws driving plot twists. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 12 Jan 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Early in the transition to driverless cars, wealthy owners will have a new way to alienate the rest of society. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Schools will push back against owners using self-driving cars to pick up children early, but people will still try it. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 12 Jan 2017 Many groups, including Tesla, have promoted the advantage of cars autonomously handling parking. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 12 Jan 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Arguing about these questions will not have any practical impact or lead to practical regulations about what can or cannot go into automobiles. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Ten autonomous-car deaths per year in the US may be deemed unacceptable even though it would be 34,990 fewer deaths. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 We will not have cars that can tell nuns from robbers, a point made right after saying that robot perception today and in the foreseeable future cannot work out the state of the world well enough. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Level 5 autonomy over large geographical areas is a long time away. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Factual 12 Jan 2017 As of January 2017, almost all new cars have level 1 autonomy features and level 2 autonomy is becoming more common in production products. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 12 Jan 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Before long, grocery store parking lots, especially in storms, will be filled with improperly parked self-driving cars waiting for their owners. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
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Jeff Bezos

Open its page

Factual Economics and markets

“No customer ever asked Amazon to create the Prime membership program, but it sure turns out they wanted it, and I could give you many such examples.”

Jeff Bezos, Amazon CEO, shareholder letter 17 April 2017 Jeff Bezos' 2016 Letter to Amazon Shareholders (About Amazon)

No customer asked Amazon to create the Prime membership program, yet customers turned out to want it.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge said resolved true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of April 2017. True: accounts of how Prime was created show that the membership program came from inside Amazon and not from customer requests for such a program, and that Prime was widely adopted (for example, strong membership growth by 2017). Requests for free or fast shipping in general do not count as requests for a membership program. Mostly true: the idea came from inside Amazon and customers adopted it, with a minor qualification, for example Prime built on earlier shipping offers. Mixed: the evidence shows customers or partners proposed something close to a paid shipping membership, or adoption was modest. Mostly false: credible accounts show that customer demand for this kind of program directly drove Prime's creation. False: the evidence shows customers explicitly requested a membership program like Prime, or that customers did not want it.

Evidence

  1. 10 years later, Amazon celebrates Prime’s triumph The Seattle Times · 2 February 2015
    “Prime started when an Amazon engineer named Charlie Ward pitched the idea in a digital employee-suggestion box.”
  2. The making of Amazon Prime, the internet’s most successful and devastating membership program Vox (Recode) · 3 May 2019
    “Jeff said, “Well, hey, it looks like Super Saver Shipping is working really well for us. Can you bring me some similar ideas for faster shipping?” That was the first time, sometime in October 2004, that the idea kind of surfaced.”
  3. 10 years later, Amazon celebrates Prime’s triumph The Seattle Times · 2 February 2015
    “He noted that the $99-a-year service, which offers shipping on millions of products at no additional cost, boosted its worldwide paid membership 53 percent last year”
  4. Inside Amazon Prime’s ‘explosive’ growth: 10 million members and profitable GeekWire · 12 March 2013
    “The $79/year Amazon Prime subscription service has experienced rapid growth since late 2011, reaching an estimated 10 million members as of the end of 2012, with the potential to reach 25 million members by 2017.”

Reasoning

Two independent accounts say Prime came from inside Amazon. E1 says an engineer, Charlie Ward, pitched it through an employee suggestion box, and E2 says Bezos asked staff in October 2004 for faster-shipping ideas. Neither mentions customers asking for a membership program. Adoption was strong: E4 cites an estimate of about 10 million members by the end of 2012, and E3 reports that worldwide paid membership grew 53 percent in 2014. The one qualification is that E2 shows Prime grew out of the earlier Super Saver Shipping offer, which matches the criteria's example for "mostly true".

Cite this claim

Jeff Bezos, “No customer asked Amazon to create the Prime membership program, yet customers turned out to want it.” (said 17 April 2017). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_ea7aaa56cd25, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ea7aaa56cd25

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.