6,750 claims · page 16 of 68
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 3 Apr 2025 | Once AI is superintelligent, it will probably have access to much better simulations than exist now. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 3 Apr 2025 | Superintelligences will be somewhat distributed throughout the entire economy, trying to expand everything. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Factual | 3 Apr 2025 | Speaking about Elon Musk and SpaceX, he said he thought that in 2000 people would not have expected that someone could move two or five times faster than NASA with fairly limited resources. Scott Alexander · Factual · 3 Apr 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 3 Apr 2025 | AIs will be solving alignment because even misaligned AIs want to align their successors. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 3 Apr 2025 | Scott Alexander put his own p(doom) at about 20%, which he described as the lowest of anyone on his team. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 | AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 3 Apr 2025 | In the AI 2027 scenario, the government sees via cyber warfare that AIs are as capable as the best human hackers but deployable at huge scale. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 3 Apr 2025 | Other countries, especially China, will develop superintelligence around the same time, so AI will probably not stay confined to data centers. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 3 Apr 2025 | AIs would spend some time, which he put at about a year (possibly more or less), getting the facilities they need for experiments, such as automated biology labs, running to clear bottlenecks. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 3 Apr 2025 | Superintelligence will be able to figure out how to build a Dyson sphere faster than unassisted IQ 100 humans would. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 3 Apr 2025 | Because of an AI research progress multiplier, the technological level of the year 2100 might be reached earlier than people expect. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 3 Apr 2025 | Training failures where AIs are not trained to do what developers intended will get much worse as AIs become agents. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Factual | 3 Apr 2025 | Nvidia originally came from gaming. Scott Alexander · Factual · 3 Apr 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Factual | 3 Apr 2025 | Scott Alexander said he thinks the AI alignment community did not really expect LLMs. Scott Alexander · Factual · 3 Apr 2025 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 3 Apr 2025 | In future, once they have superintelligence and want robots, AI companies like OpenAI will be able to buy up many factories. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 3 Apr 2025 | Once the initial bottlenecks are solved, which he put at about a year while saying it could be more or less, AI would gradually expand to other bottlenecks until it is integrating and improving all parts of the economy. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 3 Apr 2025 | Some people may become like the Amish, living with only a subset of super technologies. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Factual | 3 Apr 2025 | The AI 2027 scenario existed at an early stage as a giant spreadsheet and had not yet been written up. Scott Alexander · Factual · 3 Apr 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 10 Mar 2025 | Anthropic was the first AI company to have a responsible scaling policy. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Not yet due | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | China's chip gap with the US will eventually close over roughly ten to twenty years. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 10 Mar 2025 | Within a few months of Anthropic releasing its responsible scaling policy, the other AI companies all adopted similar policies. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | AI will become better than almost all humans at almost all things. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 10 Mar 2025 | Amodei and colleagues felt that OpenAI's leadership was on board with the scaling hypothesis, though many people inside and outside were not. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | If the US puts export controls in place, it may be able to stop that from happening in China. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Not yet due | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | Amodei said the same exponential trends and arguments predict that, if progress continues for another two, three or maybe four years, AI models will be as intelligent as Nobel Prize winners across a whole bunch of fields. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Factual | 10 Mar 2025 | Some AI algorithmic secrets worth $100 million consist of only a few lines of code. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | Whoever establishes dominance in AI technology will have military and economic dominance everywhere. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | US export controls may have the effect of stimulating China's chip development. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 10 Mar 2025 | In early studies, the quality of model-written clinical study reports was deemed comparable to that of the human process, which takes about ten weeks. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | Tracking and understanding epidemics using large quantities of data could benefit hugely from AI. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Factual | 10 Mar 2025 | Dario Amodei was a big supporter of the US AI diffusion rule. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | Advanced AI systems could be a threat to all of humanity. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | US-China AI dialogue will not change the dynamic of national competition between the two countries. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | AI systems will be able to help a lot with clinical trial problems, at least radically simplifying them. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Factual | 10 Mar 2025 | Anthropic published all of its interpretability work so others could benefit. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved false | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 10 Mar 2025 | Anthropic's model takes about ten minutes to write a clinical study report, and humans take about three days to check it. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 10 Mar 2025 | Amodei said he thinks delaying Claude's release had real commercial consequences for Anthropic. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mixed | Dario Amodei | Factual | 10 Mar 2025 | Amodei's group measured AI scaling trends when models cost $1,000 or $10,000 to train. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | Anthropic's models may reach AI Safety Level 3 in 2025. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly false | Dario Amodei | Factual | 10 Mar 2025 | Dario Amodei thought one or two years before March 2025 that data limits were a very plausible blocker to AI progress. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Not yet due | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | Amodei said the AI industry as a whole probably needs maybe fifty gigawatts of additional energy by 2027 to fully power AI with the properties he had been describing. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | Amodei thinks regulatory problems are going to be what limits the rate of progress. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Factual | 10 Mar 2025 | Amodei described as "the basic hypothesis" the idea that training AI systems with more computation and more data, using relatively simple algorithms, makes them better at all kinds of cognitive tasks across the board. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | The biggest thing that could halt AI progress would be an interruption to the supply of GPUs. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | Smuggling five million advanced GPUs to China would drastically change the world's national security balance. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | Some narrow US-China agreement limiting AI risks could be achieved. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 10 Mar 2025 | Amodei and his cofounders left OpenAI and started their own company because they felt OpenAI's leadership was not taking these issues seriously. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 10 Mar 2025 | Dario Amodei has supported export controls on chips for several years, before DeepSeek's model came out. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | If the US does not apply AI technologies to national security, it will be defenseless against its adversaries. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | After longevity escape velocity, medical progress will solve aging as we know it, without guaranteeing immortality. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | Science and research methods |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | In the 2030s humans will merge with AI intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Own records only | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | Mar 2025 | Starting at age eight, Kurzweil created a virtual reality theater that was a big hit in his third grade class. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | Mar 2025 | Kurzweil has used large language models many thousands of times and has never seen an inaccurate output. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | Everything is moving to the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Own records only | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | Mar 2025 | At a Stanford conference, 80 percent of attendees thought AI would not pass the Turing test soon but believed it would take 100 years. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | By 2045 human intelligence will be multiplied millions-fold for everybody. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | Within five or six years, around 2029, there will be robots/humanlike helpers that can help people. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | By the 2030s there will be something like residual income for people who need it, because "we" will be able to afford it. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | AI interfaces will ultimately go inside our brains. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | Technology |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | Around the 2045 intelligence multiplication, humanity will be able to get rid of lives of terrible poverty and lack of access to information. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | With AI-optimized designs and new compounds, solar power is on track to dominate within a decade. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | There is nothing in which computers will eventually not be better than humans. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | AI will soon drive bio-simulations testing billions of molecular sequences, finding solutions to basically all diseases, including cancer, Alzheimer's and aging, over the next number of years. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | Coding will ultimately be taken over by machines. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | By 2029, each year that passes will extend life expectancy by at least a year, and later by more than a year. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mixed | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | Mar 2025 | AI hallucinations persist but are becoming much less frequent. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | If the exponential trend he sees in renewable energy continues, renewable energy will be able to provide all of our energy needs within 10 years of March 2025. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | Mar 2025 | The risk to humanity from technology has not increased since the earlier period discussed. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | Kurzweil said he thinks people will be more different from one another than they are today, given the kinds of skills they will develop. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | Mar 2025 | Kurzweil said that at about 10 billion connections neural networks started to do things. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | As AI spreads through every industry, information technology's 50% annual deflation rate will drive down the cost of everything. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | Dying will become an option that people don't use. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | Mar 2025 | The likelihood of technologies destroying humanity has not increased. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | Mar 2025 | Machines operate at billions of calculations per second. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Own records only | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | Mar 2025 | Kurzweil estimated that large companies producing the best large language models put more than half of their effort into safety. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 | AI safety and alignment |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | By the early 2030s we will be able to get all of our energy from renewable sources. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | Kurzweil said he imagines people would take medication containing nanobots that travel through the bloodstream, attach themselves to the end of the neocortex and communicate externally. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | Humans will integrate AI into themselves and all become master players of Go and anything else they want. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | In the 2030s humans will be able to connect their brains directly to the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | Technology |
| Own records only | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | Mar 2025 | Kurzweil has asked AI language models questions that no human could answer, because humans cannot hold everything that has happened to humanity in mind. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | Humanity will be able to deal with climate change through renewable energy sources. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | Other global risks |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | Kurzweil estimates that the singularity, which he describes as the point when we will expand our intelligence a million-fold over our unenhanced capability, will take place in 2045. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | The Turing Test will probably be passed before 2029. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | Kurzweil said neural nets will be used to master the human body and how we move, and that he thinks this will be quite prevalent within a few years. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | Mar 2025 | Major companies, such as Microsoft and Google, use technology that already exists, including their own search engines, which is pretty good at identifying falsehood from truth, to check what large language models are checking. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 | AI safety and alignment |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | Human brains will be extended to thousands of trillions of connections and become much smarter. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | Technology |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | Artificial general intelligence will exist by 2029. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | Mar 2025 | At the 2000 Stanford conference, Kurzweil was the only person who felt AGI would happen by 2029, 30 years out. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | Brain interfaces can connect just to the end of the neocortex rather than the entire brain. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | Technology |
| Mostly false | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | Mar 2025 | Exponential growth applies to every type of technology, not just computers. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | The AI energy consumption problem will go away over the next few years. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | Mar 2025 | Social networks, as output of unenhanced people, account for much of the inaccuracy of online information. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | Mar 2025 | Alternative energy is expanding at an exponential pace. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 | Technology |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | Within the next five or six years, robots will do human tasks and be sent into places like burning buildings. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | The remaining things humans do easily that AI cannot will be overcome in the next few years. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | AI-driven medicine will make fantastic progress in the next few years. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | Humans will be able to make themselves smarter by merging with AI. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | As computers do more routine work, people will have more time for the positive aspects of parenting. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2025 | Kurzweil said that what many people are going into is the way biology is going to be done, and that he would say amazing progress will start in a few years. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 | Science and research methods |
“that would drastically change the national security balance of the world.”
Dario Amodei, Anthropic CEO, interviewed 10 March 2025 CEO Speaker Series with Dario Amodei of Anthropic (Council on Foreign Relations)
Smuggling five million advanced GPUs to China would drastically change the world's national security balance.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Reasoning
The claim is a hypothetical counterfactual about smuggling and cannot be tested.
Cite this claim
Dario Amodei, “Smuggling five million advanced GPUs to China would drastically change the world's national security balance.” (said 10 March 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_e68d4867afd7, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e68d4867afd7
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.