Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

28,548 claims · page 282 of 286

28,548 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Kurzweil said we can conservatively expect the requisite nanobot technology by around 2030. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Once the technology is refined, a reinstantiated scanned person will appear to observers to have much the same personality, history and memory as the original. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 As of 2001, people do not worry about causing pain and suffering to computer programs. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 The 21st century will see on the order of twenty thousand years of progress, measured at the rate of progress current when the statement was made (January 2001). Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Scanning a frozen brain is feasible today but not at sufficient speed or bandwidth; accelerating returns will supply the required scanning speed. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Human-like intelligent entities will be capable of passing the Turing test. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI capabilities
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Technology is being shrunk by a factor of about 5.6 per linear dimension per decade. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Technology
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Most long-range forecasts of technical feasibility in future time periods dramatically underestimate the power of future technology because they are based on an "intuitive linear" view of technological progress rather than a "historical exponential" view. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 It is easier to scan the brain of someone recently deceased than of someone living. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 There have been slightly more than 32 doublings of computing performance since the first programmable computers were invented during World War II. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Electronic circuits are already more than ten million times faster than a neuron's electrochemical processes. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Not checkable Jim Cramer Not checkable Jan 2001 I am so tempted to say that all of this kind of optimism is the real bunk. But who am I to buck the consensus when there is so much money… Jim Cramer · Not checkable · Jan 2001
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Evolution applies positive feedback, with more capable methods from one stage used to create the next. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Society will rethink social security once centenarians look and act like 30-year-olds. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 According to Kurzweil's models, the physical limits of matter and energy for intelligent processes won't be approached this century but will become an issue within a couple of centuries. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Kurzweil estimates brain capacity as 100 billion neurons times 1,000 connections times 200 calculations per second. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 The 21st century will see almost a thousand times greater technological change than the 20th century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 The power of wireless communication is doubling every 10 to 11 months. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Once brain patterns can be stored and restored, the longevity of a person's mind file will not depend on any particular hardware medium. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Recreating and enhancing human bodies will be, and has been, an easier task than recreating human minds. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Digital computing can be functionally equivalent to analog computing, though the reverse is not true. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 The design of the brain is characterized by a human genome of only about a billion bytes. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Patterns of matter and energy in people change only gradually, while their actual material content changes constantly and very quickly. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Responses at all levels to potentially large-scale lethal self-replicating entities will be vastly more serious. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Routine college bioengineering labs will soon be able to create pathogens more dangerous than nuclear weapons, as more sophisticated labs already can. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Biosecurity
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Over the past 120 years, per-student investment in K-12 education in constant dollars has increased by a factor of ten. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 The fifteen-year human genome project was completed slightly ahead of schedule. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Once a computer achieves human-level intelligence, it will necessarily soar past it. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI capabilities
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 A computer can remember billions or trillions of facts perfectly, while humans struggle to remember a handful of phone numbers. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Exponential growth in communications technology has been more explosive than in computation. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Technology
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 The underlying rate of economic growth will continue to double approximately every decade. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 All basic technologies for brain scanning exist in 2001, lacking only requisite speed, cost and size, which are improving at a double exponential pace. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Within a couple of decades of 2001, the computational power to emulate the human brain will be available. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 As of 2001, technology exists that produces very high resolution scans if the scanner is physically close to the neural features. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 As of 2001, computational substrates are already more than ten million times faster than neural circuitry. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Nanobot-based brain scanning will be more practical than scanning the brain from outside. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Neural net connection calculations are less expensive than conventional (Pentium III/IV) calculations by a factor of at least 100. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Moore's Law will run out of steam during the second decade of the 21st century, after which a sixth computing paradigm will take over. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 The pace of technological change has advanced at least exponentially, not linearly, since the advent of technology and of evolution on Earth. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 The overall rate of technical progress is currently doubling approximately every decade, with paradigm shift times halving every decade. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Technology
Resolved false Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 The projections being discussed assume a fixed rate of growth of 3.5% per year for the next fifty years. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Abandoning broad areas of technology would push them underground, where development would continue without ethics and regulation. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Nanotechnology is the inevitable end result of the persistent trend toward miniaturization across all technology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Technology
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Citation Jan 2001 Marvin Minsky observed that there is something queer about describing consciousness and people cannot make clear what they mean. Ray Kurzweil · Citation · Jan 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Most technology forecasts ignore altogether the historical exponential view of technological progress. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Technological evolution is an outgrowth and continuation of biological evolution. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Kurzweil's computing chart spans at least five distinct computing paradigms, of which Moore's Law is only the latest. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 One cubic inch of nanotube circuitry would be a million times more powerful than the human brain. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 The World Wide Web did not exist in anything like its present form a few years before 2001 and did not exist at all a decade before. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Technology
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Analog computing is potentially thousands of times more efficient than digital computing. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Humans will become vastly smarter as they merge with technology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Because the rate of progress doubles every decade, a century of progress at the 2001 rate will occur in only 25 calendar years. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Kurzweil's computation growth graph matches the available twentieth-century data through all five paradigms. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Kurzweil and Bill Joy have frequently been paired at venues as optimist and pessimist respectively. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 The next primary paradigm shift will be from biological thinking to a hybrid of biological and nonbiological thinking. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Billions of nanobots could travel through every brain capillary and scan every relevant feature from up close. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Technological progress will literally get out of human control. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Nanotech is potentially more dangerous than biotech because nanobots can be physically stronger and more intelligent than protein-based entities. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI safety and alignment
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Watts has implemented his auditory model as real-time software that can locate and identify sounds with many of the same properties as human hearing. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 Reserves that banks and financial institutions maintain with the Federal Reserve System are under $50 billion, about 0.6% of GDP and 0.25% of liquidity available in stocks. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 US labor productivity grew 1.6% per year until 1994, then 2.4% per year, and is now growing even more rapidly. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Once a species develops computing technology, within a couple of centuries its nonbiological intelligence explodes. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2001 In retrospect, we significantly underestimated how much time would be available to enter these categories Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2001
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 Experiments measuring photons at nearly twice light speed do not allow information to be communicated faster than light. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nanobots will be introduced into the body without surgery, essentially by injecting or swallowing them. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By 2030, going to a web site will mean entering a full immersion virtual reality environment. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Not researched Michael Burry Factual 2001 Unlike nearly every other industry, technology companies pay employees in a way that hides much of the compensation expense from the income statement (stock options). Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 The conventional transistor relies on the quantum effect of electron tunneling. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Amazon.com said it had been told that its American Customer Satisfaction Index score of 84 was the highest ever recorded for a service company in any industry. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2001 We’re a company that wants to be weighed, and over time, we will be—over the long term, all companies are. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2001
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Total human biological thinking capacity of about 10^26 calculations per second will never appreciably change, apart from a small genetic-engineering increase. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2001 Burry is a tax-paying US citizen. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Humanity will reverse-engineer the human brain to gain insights for building more intelligent machines. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Science and research methods
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2001 we are working to build something important, something that matters to our customers Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2001
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2001 Burry personally had over $1 million invested in Scion Value Fund when writing the 2000 annual letter. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 2001 Improvements in disk space and processing power price performance will let Amazon do more and better real-time personalization of its website. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Mixed Michael Burry Factual 2001 The cost of employee stock option compensation is borne by shareholders through significant dilution. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nonbiological intelligence, growing at a double exponential rate, will vastly exceed biological intelligence well before the middle of the twenty-first century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched Michael Burry Factual 2001 The Scion Value Fund's largest holding on September 11, 2001 was an airline stock. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 SETI has not looked everywhere but has already covered a substantial portion of the Universe. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Other global risks
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By the end of the 21st century nonbiological thinking will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than that of biological humans. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Brain nanobots can all be directed to leave the body, so their use will be easily reversible. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nonbiological intelligence will ultimately dominate because it grows at a double exponential rate while biological intelligence is static. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched Michael Burry Factual 2001 In the first nine months of 2001 the Scion Value Fund appreciated 10.98% net of expenses and performance allocations. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 2001 Burry earns no income from Scion Capital unless members' annual return exceeds 6% net of expenses. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By the end of the decade (the 2000s), full immersion visual-auditory environments will be available, with images written onto the retinas by eyeglasses and contact lenses. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Michael Burry Factual 2001 As of the first quarter 2001 letter, Burry's Scion Capital fund was biased toward smaller capitalization stocks. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 Productivity (economic output per worker) has been growing exponentially. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Biological human thinking is stuck at 1026 (presumably 10^26) calculations per second for all human brains, and this figure will not appreciably change even with bioengineering changes to the human genome. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2001 The vast majority of Burry's net worth, aside from money for modest living expenses, is invested in the Scion Value Fund. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By 2099, intelligence from human-machine civilization will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than in 2001, mostly nonbiological. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 The 1990s saw the most powerful deflationary forces in history. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2001 It gets more interesting every year that goes by, in part because so little has changed. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2001
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2001 While there are no foregone conclusions, and we still have much to prove, Amazon.com today is a unique asset. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2001
Resolved false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Within ten years of 2001, biotechnology advances will add more than a year of life expectancy every year. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Science and research methods
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2001 The Scion Value Fund fell in Q3 2001 because several key stocks Burry chose declined in price. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Michael Burry Factual 2001 In the two months ended December 31, 2000, Scion Value Fund's net performance beat the S&P 500 by 14.08%. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Michael Burry Promise 2001 The Scion Value Fund's minimum initial investment for future investors will be raised to $250,000 as of the July 1, 2001 investment date. Michael Burry · Promise · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 From a practical perspective, people will accept the claims of nonbiological intelligent machines in the twenty-first century that they are conscious. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2001 Burry said he fully expected the Scion Value Fund's expense ratio for members to decrease quite significantly as assets under management grew with new investors. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2001 Their own work or organisation
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Ray Kurzweil

Open its page

Prediction AI compute, hardware and data

“It’s obvious what the sixth paradigm will be after Moore’s Law runs out of steam during the second decade of this century.”

Ray Kurzweil, essay author January 2001 The Law of Accelerating Returns (Kurzweil Library)

Moore's Law will run out of steam during the second decade of the 21st century, after which a sixth computing paradigm will take over.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge at the end of 2020. The claim has two parts: (a) Moore's Law (transistor density or cost per transistor in integrated circuits doubling about every two years) will run out of steam during 2011–2020; (b) a new, sixth computing paradigm (such as three-dimensional molecular or other post-2D-silicon computing) will take over as the main driver of price-performance. True: industry data show the classic doubling clearly ended or substantially stalled within 2011–2020, and by the end of 2020 a distinct new paradigm had become the mainstream basis of computing progress. Mixed: (a) holds but no new paradigm had taken over by the end of 2020, or the reverse. Mostly false: Moore's Law only slowed somewhat while broadly continuing, and no new paradigm had taken over, so only a weak version of (a) holds. False: transistor scaling continued at roughly the historical pace through 2020 and no new paradigm emerged. Mostly true is reserved for both parts holding with a minor slip in timing or detail within the decade.

Evidence

  1. Semiconductors - Stanford Emerging Technology Review Stanford Emerging Technology Review · November 2023
    “cost per transistor started to level off around 2012, and it has not kept up with Moore’s law predictions since then.”
  2. Moore And More Semiconductor Engineering · 13 February 2020
    “Now, at each process generation, the cost of processing a wafer is going up faster than the density. So the cost per transistor is rising with each generation.”
  3. Seeing Moore’s Law with 2020 Vision: Less Is Now Moore - EE Times EE Times · 16 June 2020
    “In summary, the end of Moore’s Law doesn’t mean that semiconductor companies will innovate any less.”
  4. A Century of Moore’s Law SemiAnalysis · 4 February 2023
    “The semiconductor industry stumbled but quickly recovered with a technology fix that stabilized Moore’s Law for another fifteen years, to about 2020 (Chart 1, Stage II).”

Reasoning

E1, E2, E3 and E4 support part (a): cost per transistor levelled off around 2012 and Moore's Law is described as ending around 2020. No evidence item addresses whether a sixth paradigm had become mainstream by the end of 2020, and the absence of such a mention does not settle part (b), which decides between mixed and true.

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “Moore's Law will run out of steam during the second decade of the 21st century, after which a sixth computing paradigm will take over.” (said January 2001). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_da2e7e66ce40, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_da2e7e66ce40

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.