Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

6,750 claims · page 40 of 68

6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Mar 2021 There is about a 30 percent chance of a firewall attack on Bitcoin, over a timeframe the interviewer framed as the next five years. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Factual 22 Mar 2021 Ray Dalio has systemized his definition of a bubble into a "bubble indicator" that he monitors for each market. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Mar 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Promise 14 Mar 2021 A SpaceX Falcon booster will fly for the ninth time on the night of 14 March 2021. Elon Musk · Promise · 14 Mar 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Elon Musk Promise 6 Mar 2021 Tesla will add a "Download Beta" button for FSD Beta to the Service section of the car display in about 10 days from 6 March 2021. Elon Musk · Promise · 6 Mar 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Elon Musk Promise 6 Mar 2021 Tesla is doubling the FSD Beta program size with software version 8.2 and will probably expand it about tenfold with version 8.3. Elon Musk · Promise · 6 Mar 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 4 Mar 2021 Researchers may never develop techniques to represent suitable probability distributions over high-dimensional continuous spaces such as all possible video frames. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 4 Mar 2021 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Factual 4 Mar 2021 The Siamese network / joint embedding idea goes back to papers from Geoff Hinton's lab and Yann LeCun's group in the early 1990s. Yann LeCun · Factual · 4 Mar 2021 AI capabilities
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 4 Mar 2021 Language models pretrained with self-supervised learning achieve considerably higher performance than models trained solely in a supervised manner. Yann LeCun · Factual · 4 Mar 2021 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 4 Mar 2021 Facebook has deployed XLM-R, a model based on its RoBERTa architecture, to improve hate speech classifiers in multiple languages across Facebook and Instagram. Yann LeCun · Factual · 4 Mar 2021 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 4 Mar 2021 Perhaps, in the long run, non-contrastive methods with latent-variable predictive models will prove a better alternative. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 4 Mar 2021 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 4 Mar 2021 LeCun said Facebook AI had created and open sourced SEER, a billion-parameter self-supervised computer vision model that he described as proven to work efficiently with complex, high-dimensional image data. Yann LeCun · Factual · 4 Mar 2021 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 4 Mar 2021 As of March 2021, self-supervised learning had not yet brought computer vision the same improvements it has brought to natural language processing. Yann LeCun · Factual · 4 Mar 2021 AI capabilities
Mostly true Elon Musk Factual 4 Mar 2021 Starship SN10 landed intact (as of 4 March 2021). Elon Musk · Factual · 4 Mar 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 4 Mar 2021 The Barlow Twins method tries to minimize redundancy between the individual components of the embedding vectors. Yann LeCun · Factual · 4 Mar 2021 AI capabilities
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 4 Mar 2021 After pretraining on a billion unlabeled Instagram images and fine-tuning on ImageNet, SEER outperformed state-of-the-art self-supervised systems, reaching 84.2 percent top-1 accuracy on ImageNet. Yann LeCun · Factual · 4 Mar 2021 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Elon Musk Promise 3 Mar 2021 SpaceX will make a Starship test flight attempt about five minutes after this post on 3 March 2021. Elon Musk · Promise · 3 Mar 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Promise 3 Mar 2021 SpaceX will attempt a Starship launch on 4 March 2021, with the window opening at 9am. Elon Musk · Promise · 3 Mar 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Elon Musk Factual 2 Mar 2021 The city of Starbase, Texas is being created (as of 2 March 2021). Elon Musk · Factual · 2 Mar 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 14 Feb 2021 The NYT journalist has not known about Slate Star Codex for three years, so he read the edited version of the Voldemort post that told people not to take it out of context. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Scott Alexander Factual 14 Feb 2021 The NYT's original pitch was interest in how Scott Alexander warned early about the coronavirus pandemic and urged mask-wearing before it was standard advice. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 14 Feb 2021 Far more people will read the NYT article than will read Scott Alexander's response, so the NYT's plan will probably work. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 14 Feb 2021 Scott Alexander's Contra Grant post states "My research suggests no average gender difference in ability". Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Scott Alexander Factual 14 Feb 2021 Scott Alexander said the NYT's characterisation was true only insofar as he once expressed agreement with an unrelated Charles Murray position: that telling poor people to learn to code is insufficient and a stable income is needed. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 14 Feb 2021 Scott Alexander received support from Steven Pinker, Larry Sanger, Jonathan Haidt, Liv Boeree and Yascha Mounk. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Factual 14 Feb 2021 Scott Alexander was warned by people "in the know" that the NYT would publish something as negative as possible about him once it had an excuse. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Scott Alexander Factual 14 Feb 2021 In early 2020, Scott Alexander learned the New York Times wanted to write an article about him. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Scott Alexander Factual 14 Feb 2021 Scott Alexander wrote a 30,000-word condemnation of one of the right-wing figures named in the article on his blog a few years ago. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Factual 14 Feb 2021 Scott Alexander met Peter Thiel once at a party, long before Trump was in the news, and exchanged about two sentences with him. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Scott Alexander Factual 14 Feb 2021 Scott Alexander has never personally been involved in the tech industry. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Bill Gates Prediction Feb 2021 New COVID-19 tests, treatments and vaccines will soon begin to bend the pandemic curve substantially. Bill Gates · Prediction · Feb 2021 Biosecurity
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual Feb 2021 The Gates Foundation has worked with manufacturers and partners to deliver vaccines cheaply at large scale, including to 822 million children in low-income countries through Gavi. Bill Gates · Factual · Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual Feb 2021 The United States included $4 billion for Gavi in its latest COVID-19 relief package. Bill Gates · Factual · Feb 2021 Biosecurity
Mostly false Bill Gates Factual Feb 2021 Stress and isolation during the pandemic have had far-reaching impacts on mental health. Bill Gates · Factual · Feb 2021 Biosecurity
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual Feb 2021 One and a half billion children lost classroom time due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and some may never return. Bill Gates · Factual · Feb 2021 Other
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction Feb 2021 The coronavirus pandemic will be the defining event of the Gateses' generation, as World War II was for their parents' generation. Bill Gates · Prediction · Feb 2021 Biosecurity
Mixed Bill Gates Factual Feb 2021 Foundation partners have applied lessons from earlier foundation-backed vaccine work to developing COVID-19 vaccines. Bill Gates · Factual · Feb 2021 Biosecurity
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual Feb 2021 COVID-19 was not the Gates Foundation's sole focus in 2020; it continued work across its other program areas. Bill Gates · Factual · Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual Feb 2021 The Gates Foundation's malaria team had to rethink bed net distribution because mass distribution events were no longer safe during the pandemic. Bill Gates · Factual · Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual Feb 2021 As of February 2021, the Gates Foundation had invested $1.75 billion in the fight against COVID-19. Bill Gates · Factual · Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Elon Musk Guidance 27 Jan 2021 Tesla may track to growth of a fair bit above 50% in 2021, though it does not commit to it. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Tesla Semi will likely be the first vehicle to achieve full autonomy. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Tesla's next FSD computer (version 2) is expected to be about three times as powerful as version 1. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Elon Musk Promise 27 Jan 2021 Tesla expects Giga Berlin and Giga Texas to start production in 2021. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Tesla expects to become the market leader in solar and then go far beyond it. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Guidance 27 Jan 2021 Tesla believes it can maintain a growth rate above 50% per year for many years. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Guidance 27 Jan 2021 Tesla thinks it probably should be able to achieve 30% of targeted design cell capacity in 2022. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Musk said he was highly confident Tesla's cars would drive themselves with reliability in excess of a human in 2021. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Musk said he was confident that "they", a group he described as having incredible attention to detail, would buy FSD as soon as it was working on time, which he said he hoped would be later in 2021. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 Economics and markets
Resolved true Elon Musk Factual 27 Jan 2021 Liquid hydrogen has a density comparable to styrofoam. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2021 Technology
Mixed Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Long-range trucking with batteries is feasible. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 Technology
Unresolvable Elon Musk Promise 27 Jan 2021 Tesla is installing 200 gigawatt-hours a year of battery cell capacity in 2022. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Elon Musk Factual 27 Jan 2021 Musk said that very few of Tesla's customers in China had selected the FSD option, which he thought was maybe as low as 1% or 2%, and that this was much lower than the rest of the world. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Elon Musk Promise 27 Jan 2021 Tesla expects Cybertruck volume production to begin in 2022. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Elon Musk Promise 27 Jan 2021 Musk said Tesla was confident it would have excellent integration between Powerwall and Tesla Solar (retrofit and roof) before the end of 2021. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Elon Musk Promise 27 Jan 2021 Tesla will price the new Model S $10,000 higher than the old model. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Safe Level 5 full self-driving can be achieved using only the current Full Self-Driving computer version 1. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Elon Musk Factual 27 Jan 2021 Tesla achieved full-year 2020 free cash flow of nearly $2.8 billion after spending more than $3 billion on new factories and other expenditures. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Tesla thinks Dojo may be the best neural net training computer in the world, possibly by an order of magnitude. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved false Elon Musk Guidance 27 Jan 2021 Tesla targets 100 gigawatt-hours of Tesla-produced cells in 2022. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Elon Musk Factual 27 Jan 2021 Musk described gathering surround video from eight cameras operating simultaneously with synchronized frame rates. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2021 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 21 Jan 2021 Scott Alexander quit his day job so his employer would not be affected by the fallout. Scott Alexander · Factual · 21 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 21 Jan 2021 Trolls posted Scott Alexander's real name in many places after he tried to protect his anonymity. Scott Alexander · Factual · 21 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Factual 21 Jan 2021 Scott Alexander lost a five-digit sum in advertising and Patreon fees. Scott Alexander · Factual · 21 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 21 Jan 2021 Scott Alexander deleted his blog, which had 1,557 posts. Scott Alexander · Factual · 21 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 21 Jan 2021 While trying to restore his blog, Scott Alexander accidentally sent about three hundred emails to each of five thousand people. Scott Alexander · Factual · 21 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 21 Jan 2021 After Scott Alexander deleted his blog, articles about him appeared in the New Yorker, Reason, and The Daily Beast. Scott Alexander · Factual · 21 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 8 Jan 2021 Grantham believes this event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles in financial history, alongside the South Sea bubble, 1929 and 2000. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 8 Jan 2021 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Factual 8 Jan 2021 Bonds are even more expensive by historical comparison than stocks. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 8 Jan 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual 8 Jan 2021 As of early January 2021, the US stock market P/E ratio is in the top few percent of its historical range while the economy is in the worst few percent. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 8 Jan 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 If the US does not take a radical step toward a fair, inclusive system, it will not be the leading country in the world for much longer. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 By default, automation will concentrate wealth and power in a tiny number of hands. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2021 Training systems on video prediction with self-supervised techniques will provide a path towards some level of physical common sense in machines. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2021 AI capabilities
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 2021 America has repeatedly found ways to challenge concentration of wealth and power. Sam Altman · Factual · 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 Altman said he thinks a model similar to the one used by companies can work for the US as well as it does for companies. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Sam Altman Factual 2021 Countries that concentrate wealth in a small number of families do worse over the long term. Sam Altman · Factual · 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 2021 A cat has fewer than 1 billion neurons, while a dog has 2 billion. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2021 Other
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 American Equity would create a society that Altman believes would work much better than today's. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 2021 Since the 1990s, algorithms exist that learn oriented edge detectors fully unsupervised with the equivalent of a few minutes of real time. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2021 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2021 A machine cannot be trained to be intelligent purely from text. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2021 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Factual 2021 The knowledge needed for house-cat intelligence fits in about 800 million neurons. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2021 Other
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 2021 Self-supervised training of visual representations from video has not yet been successful. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2021 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 Automation will significantly change how people think about work. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 If everyone benefits more directly from economic growth, it will be easier to move faster toward a better world with automation. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 AI, the economy and work
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 2021 The American financial payment system is much more lax about signature verification than Europe's. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 In a world where economic growth guarantees basic needs, absolute poverty in America would be eliminated. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Factual 2021 The most intelligent AI systems have less common sense than a house cat. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2021 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 American Equity would cushion the transition from today's jobs to the jobs of tomorrow. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 He said he believes a new US social contract with a floor and no ceiling would lead to a huge increase in US prosperity and keep the US in the global lead. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Sam Altman Factual 2021 Countries have historically given land to citizens, such as through the US Homestead Acts, to distribute resources people needed to succeed. Sam Altman · Factual · 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Factual 2021 At that earlier time, datasets were so small that hand-engineered methods worked better than convolutional nets. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2021 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 2021 In reinforcement learning the machine receives only a single scalar feedback, and only occasionally. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2021 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2021 All of intelligence could possibly be solved by filling in blanks in language and similar self-supervised prediction. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2021 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Factual 2021 AI is not anywhere close to reproducing the learning done by a cat brain of about 800 million neurons. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2021 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 Automation could create more abundance than people ever dreamed possible. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Sam Altman Factual 2021 The joint-stock company allowed many people to align on a common goal and accomplish things no individual could. Sam Altman · Factual · 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 Eliminating poverty will increase productivity. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 American Equity would free Americans to work on what they really care about, improve social cohesion, and incentivize everyone to think about ways to grow the whole pie. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Factual 2021 Most of the complicated components of intelligence already exist in cats, dogs and non-human primates. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2021 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2021 Active learning and reinforcement learning will become obsolete, useless or easy once self-supervised representation learning or predictive world models are figured out. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2021 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 Without policies addressing the cost of living crisis, any redistribution will be far less effective than it otherwise could be. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 Economics and markets
Back to the list

Elon Musk

Open its page

Factual Their own work or organisation

“Creating the city of Starbase, Texas”

Elon Musk, posting on X 2 March 2021 Post by @elonmusk on X, 2021-03-02 (X)

The city of Starbase, Texas is being created (as of 2 March 2021).

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

What would count as true or false

Factual claim judged as of 2 March 2021: a city of Starbase, Texas was being created, meaning concrete steps toward forming such a municipality were under way. True: by around that date, SpaceX or Musk had taken concrete steps toward municipal incorporation, such as contacting Cameron County or Texas officials about incorporating, or filing a petition. Mostly true: concrete steps existed but were at a very early or informal stage, such as initial outreach to officials only. Mixed: the effort amounted to branding and planning with limited official action. Mostly false: as of the date the 'city' was only an aspiration or rebranding, with no steps toward incorporation. False: the evidence shows no effort to create a city existed, or that the claim was a joke with no basis. Incorporation later on (e.g. in 2025) does not by itself make the 2021 claim true. It is relevant only as evidence of steps already under way in 2021.

Evidence

  1. Elon Musk seeks to create the city of Starbase in South Texas Houston Chronicle · 2 March 2021
    “County Judge Eddie Treviño Jr. confirmed the news, saying Cameron County had been officially approached by SpaceX over the past few days.”
  2. Elon Musk seeks to create the city of Starbase in South Texas Houston Chronicle · 2 March 2021
    “If SpaceX and Elon Musk would like to pursue down this path, they must abide by all state incorporation statutes,”
  3. Starbase, Texas - Wikipedia Wikipedia
    “In March 2021, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk announced plans to incorporate a new city to be called Starbase in the area.”
  4. City of Starbase Incorporation election - Wikipedia Wikipedia · 22 April 2025
    “In December 2024, SpaceX sent a letter to county judge Eddie Treviño Jr., containing an incorporation petition signed by area residents;”

Reasoning

The Houston Chronicle reported on 2 March 2021 that Cameron County Judge Eddie Treviño Jr. confirmed SpaceX had officially approached the county in the preceding few days (E1). He also said any effort would have to follow state incorporation statutes (E2). This shows concrete outreach to officials toward incorporation was under way. However, the evidence shows nothing beyond that initial contact, such as a petition. The evidence records an incorporation petition sent in December 2024 (E4), and none of the items reports a petition in 2021; the 2021 step on record is SpaceX's approach to Cameron County (E1), which fits the criteria's "very early or informal stage" tier.

Cite this claim

Elon Musk, “The city of Starbase, Texas is being created (as of 2 March 2021).” (said 2 March 2021). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_d82fbbd4cf66, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d82fbbd4cf66

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.