62 claims
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved false | Yann LeCun | Factual | 1 Oct 2026 | The OpenAI agents involved in the Hugging Face hacking incident were doing exactly what they had been asked to do. Yann LeCun · Factual · 1 Oct 2026 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved false | Bill Ackman | Factual | 1 Oct 2026 | Ackman estimated, with heavy hedging, that the average tenure of an S&P 500 CEO is probably about 3 to 4 years. Bill Ackman · Factual · 1 Oct 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jensen Huang | Factual | 1 Jun 2026 | NVIDIA's token cost is the lowest in the world, lower than others by large factors and orders of magnitude, due to extreme co-design. Jensen Huang · Factual · 1 Jun 2026 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved false | Demis Hassabis | Promise | 20 May 2026 | Google DeepMind will release a Gemini 3.5 Pro model following Gemini 3.5 Flash. Demis Hassabis · Promise · 20 May 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 28 Jan 2026 | Tesla hopes to debut the next-generation Roadster in April 2026. Elon Musk · Promise · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 28 Jan 2026 | Tesla will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. Elon Musk · Promise · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved false | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved false | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 11 Nov 2024 | Amodei guessed that within about 10 months AI models would probably get pretty close on typical real-world programming tasks, reaching at least 90%. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved false | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 9 Jul 2024 | Moderna gathered several billion possibilities for what could cause COVID and used simulated trials with AI to narrow them. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 9 Jul 2024 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 30 Jun 2024 | The RN (Le Pen's party) will win an absolute majority in the 2024 French parliamentary elections, with 60% probability as the baseline scenario. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 30 Jun 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved false | Warren Buffett | Promise | 5 May 2024 | Poor Charlie's Almanack will be the only book at the Berkshire meeting bookstore next year. Warren Buffett · Promise · 5 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 24 Jan 2024 | Musk said he thinks Tesla has a good chance of shipping some number of Optimus units in 2025, and he called Optimus a brand-new product. Elon Musk · Promise · 24 Jan 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 24 Jan 2024 | Musk said Tesla's current schedule is to start production toward the end of 2025, sometime in the second half, while noting that he is often optimistic regarding time. Elon Musk · Promise · 24 Jan 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 1 Jan 2024 | After its first crewed test flight in April 2024, Boeing's Starliner is expected to fly with a crew once a year. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2024 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Jim Cramer | Prediction | 24 May 2023 | US politicians will cause investors to lose more money as the May 2023 debt ceiling negotiations drag on. Jim Cramer · Prediction · 24 May 2023 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jim Cramer | Prediction | 24 May 2023 | If the market follows the 2011 debt ceiling pattern, US stocks will fall about 12% from their level on 2023-05-24 to the bottom. Jim Cramer · Prediction · 24 May 2023 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 6 Apr 2023 | The current AI developers will not try the alignment approach he described (filtering training data to nice examples and training on it). Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2023 | The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | The coming US recession will not be short and shallow. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 13 Oct 2022 | The situation where several companies can produce good reasoning models will rapidly cease as everyone moves further up the scaling curve. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 13 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2 Aug 2022 | As of 2 August 2022, Visa had not responded publicly to the allegations about facilitating child trafficking on MindGeek/PornHub sites. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2 Aug 2022 | Other |
| Resolved false | GiveWell | Factual | 6 Apr 2022 | GiveWell is launching a contest for critiques of its cost-effectiveness analyses. GiveWell · Factual · 6 Apr 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Guidance | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla expects growth in 2022 over 2021 comfortably above 50%. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Guidance | 27 Jan 2022 | If able to respond to demand, Tesla's energy business might grow by about 200% to 300% in 2022 rather than about 50%. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2022 | Musk said he would be shocked if Tesla did not achieve full self-driving safer than a human in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved false | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 14 Dec 2021 | Gary Marcus bet that hybrid (neurosymbolic) AI models would pull ahead in 2022. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Dec 2021 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 3 Mar 2021 | SpaceX will attempt a Starship launch on 4 March 2021, with the window opening at 9am. Elon Musk · Promise · 3 Mar 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Tesla Semi will likely be the first vehicle to achieve full autonomy. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Musk said he was highly confident Tesla's cars would drive themselves with reliability in excess of a human in 2021. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Safe Level 5 full self-driving can be achieved using only the current Full Self-Driving computer version 1. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Guidance | 27 Jan 2021 | Tesla targets 100 gigawatt-hours of Tesla-produced cells in 2022. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | Feb 2018 | Ørsted expects gross investments in 2018 of DKK 16-18 billion, covering offshore wind projects, the Asnæs Power Station biomass conversion and smart meter installation. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | Feb 2018 | Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements of DKK 12-13 billion, compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | Jan 2018 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | Jan 2018 | Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that the first Falcon Heavy launch would not be successful. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 2018 | If global existential risks became a big part of 2018-2023, it would be because someone did something incredibly stupid or awful with infectious diseases. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 | Other global risks |
| Resolved false | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 10 Jul 2017 | The United States is a federation, not a republic. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 | Other |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 16 Jun 2017 | SpaceX plans to send a Dragon 2 propulsive lander to Mars in about two years, and probably another Dragon mission in 2020. Elon Musk · Promise · 16 Jun 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Promise | 2017 | DONG Energy will stop using coal altogether at its power plants from 2023. Ørsted · Promise · 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | 2017 | DONG Energy's REnescience waste treatment plant in Northwich is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 20 Jul 2016 | Tesla plans to create an integrated solar-roof-with-battery product and scale it throughout the world. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that ISIS would not continue to exist as a state entity by the end of 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Resolved false | Bill Ackman | Prediction | Jan 2016 | Pershing Square did not believe the events that hit Valeant in 2015 would permanently impair Valeant's intrinsic value. Bill Ackman · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2016 | Oil stocks should do well over the next five years, perhaps regaining much of their losses. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Nate Silver | Prediction | 2015 | Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 | Other |
| Resolved false | Nate Silver | Prediction | 2015 | In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 | Other |
| Resolved false | Marc Andreessen | Prediction | 20 Aug 2011 | Within 10 years of 2011, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 23 Dec 2010 | Traditional lithium-ion bulk batteries will almost certainly not be around in 15 years. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Ray Dalio | Prediction | Jun 2010 | The next US recession will come sooner than the normal roughly five-year interval, because of the size of the debt. Ray Dalio · Prediction · Jun 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Oct 2009 | GMO's seven-year forecast return for the S&P 500 is well below 3%, while the high-quality subset is still handsome. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Oct 2009 | The irony may well be that strong economic data in 2010 is likely to be accompanied by a weak stock market. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 28 Sep 2007 | Khosla said he believed 50 million acres of US land could supply all US biofuel needs. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Apr 2007 | GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 25 Sep 2006 | New York City home prices will be 5 to 10 percent lower on average a year from September 2006. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | Jan 2001 | The projections being discussed assume a fixed rate of growth of 3.5% per year for the next fifty years. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 2001 | Within ten years of 2001, biotechnology advances will add more than a year of life expectancy every year. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved false | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 1999 | Amazon.com's music store became the leading online music retailer in its first full quarter. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1999 | Economics and markets |
“Today, NVIDIA’s token cost is the lowest in the world, not by 10%, by X factors, orders of magnitude, all because we did extreme co-design”
Jensen Huang, NVIDIA CEO 1 June 2026 NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026 Keynote w/ CEO Jensen Huang (Transcript) (Singju Post)
NVIDIA's token cost is the lowest in the world, lower than others by large factors and orders of magnitude, due to extreme co-design.
Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judged as of 2026-06-01. The claim is that NVIDIA has the lowest inference cost per token in the world, and that its lead is large: 'orders of magnitude', meaning roughly 10x or more against the main competing platforms (for example Google TPU, AMD Instinct, AWS Trainium and other custom accelerators) on comparable models and workloads. TRUE: independent benchmarks or analyses (for example SemiAnalysis InferenceMAX, MLPerf Inference-based cost analyses or independent TCO studies) current around mid-2026 show NVIDIA's leading platform with the lowest cost per token, and about 10x or more below the main competitors' current platforms. MOSTLY TRUE: NVIDIA is clearly lowest, and the gap is several-fold (for example 5-10x) against the main competitors, or is 10x or more against most but not all of them. MIXED: NVIDIA is lowest on some major workloads or models but not others, or ties a competitor. MOSTLY FALSE: NVIDIA is lowest, but only by a modest margin (well under about 5x). The 'orders of magnitude' figure would then come from comparing against NVIDIA's own older generations rather than against rivals, so a real lead is overstated. Also MOSTLY FALSE if the only support is NVIDIA's own figures and independent evidence is inconclusive. FALSE: independent evidence shows a competitor with an equal or lower cost per token on major comparable workloads. The causal attribution to 'extreme co-design' cannot be tested independently and does not change the verdict on its own.
Evidence
- GB300 NVL72 vs TPU7x: Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B | InferenceX SemiAnalysis (InferenceX) · 13 July 2026
“TPU7x edges GB300 NVL72 at 439 tok/s/user on Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B — $0.02 per million tokens versus $0.05, a 160% cost-per-token gap.”
- GB300 NVL72 vs TPU7x: Kimi K3 2.8T | InferenceX SemiAnalysis (InferenceX) · 17 October 2026
“GB300 NVL72: $0.06 per million tokens. TPU7x: $0.08. Both at 123 tok/s/user on Kimi K3 2.8T, with GB300 NVL72 30% cheaper.”
- TPU Inference Externalization Full Steam Ahead - InferenceX SemiAnalysis · 7 September 2026
“Combined with the lower modeled hourly cost, Ironwood delivers 50.4% more tokens per dollar than B200 and 96.0% more than B300.”
- Tokens per Watt Determines AI Factory Revenue as Power Constraints Tighten TechTimes · 15 July 2026
“AMD's own analysis of SemiAnalysis InferenceX data shows that the MI355X — the current deployed Instinct GPU — already outperforms GB300 NVL72 on cost-per-million-tokens at operating points above 60 tokens per second per user in FP8 configurations without multi-token prediction.”
Reasoning
SemiAnalysis's independent InferenceX data shows Google's TPU7x cheaper per token than NVIDIA's GB300 NVL72 on Qwen 3.5 397B at one operating point: $0.02 versus $0.05 per million tokens (E1). SemiAnalysis also reports that Ironwood delivers 50.4% more tokens per dollar than B200 and 96.0% more than B300 (E3). GB300 is cheaper at one Kimi K3 operating point, but only by 30% (E2), far short of the 'orders of magnitude' lead claimed. Independent evidence shows a competitor with a lower cost per token on major comparable workloads: Google's TPU7x on Qwen 3.5 at one operating point [E1], and Ironwood against NVIDIA's B200 and B300 on tokens per dollar [E3]. NVIDIA's GB300 NVL72 was 30% cheaper at one Kimi K3 operating point [E2], which is far short of 'orders of magnitude'. Under the criteria, a competitor with an equal or lower cost per token on major comparable workloads resolves the claim false. E4, which relays AMD's own analysis showing the MI355X ahead at some operating points, is consistent with this but carries less weight.
Cite this claim
Jensen Huang, “NVIDIA's token cost is the lowest in the world, lower than others by large factors and orders of magnitude, due to extreme co-design.” (said 1 June 2026). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_d6d611e64e3d, method 0.1.0+03d23c0e. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d6d611e64e3d
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.