Claims

Factual · Economics and markets

“Infrastructure is the most recent area to attract rapid increases in capital partly, no doubt, in response to other opportunities becoming overpriced.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO letter author · April 2007 · The First Truly Global Bubble (It's Everywhere, In Everything) (GMO)

Infrastructure is the most recent investment area to attract rapid increases in capital, partly because other opportunities became overpriced.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

The second judge said mixed; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Judge the claim as of April 2007: infrastructure was the most recent investment area attracting rapid capital growth, partly because other opportunities had become overpriced. TRUE: fundraising or allocation data show sharply rising capital going into infrastructure in about 2005–2007, the area was widely described then as the newest hot area, and contemporaneous commentary attributes part of the inflow to a search for yield or to expensive alternatives. MOSTLY TRUE: inflows were rapid and partly attributed to expensive alternatives, but another area could equally be called the most recent. MIXED: inflows were rising but not notably rapid, or the 'overpriced alternatives' explanation finds little support. MOSTLY FALSE: infrastructure saw only modest growth, which the claim overstates. FALSE: capital going into infrastructure was flat or falling at the time.

Evidence

1. [PDF] DISCUSSION PAPER PI-1103 - Infrastructure as an Asset Class The Pensions Institute, Cass Business School (paper by Georg Inderst; first published in EIB Papers vol. 15 no. 1, 2010) · 2010

   “According to Preqin, the number of infrastructure funds grew from 44 to 192 between the years 2000 and 2009. Institutional fundraising in the years 2005 to the first half of 2010 was USD 130bn.”

2. [PDF] DISCUSSION PAPER PI-1103 - Infrastructure as an Asset Class The Pensions Institute, Cass Business School (paper by Georg Inderst; first published in EIB Papers vol. 15 no. 1, 2010) · 2010

   “Too much money was chasing a limited number of suitable projects, which led to an overvaluation of many assets.”

3. [PDF] DISCUSSION PAPER PI-1103 - Infrastructure as an Asset Class The Pensions Institute, Cass Business School (paper by Georg Inderst; first published in EIB Papers vol. 15 no. 1, 2010) · 2010

   “Furthermore, the increasing number of funds raised during the private-equity boom years (2004-2008) seem to be struggling to get their returns going.”

4. Infrastructure as an Asset Class Pensions Institute, Cass Business School (Discussion Paper PI-1103; first published in EIB Papers vol. 15 no. 1) · 2010

   “Fundraising rose strongly in the years up to 2007 (USD 45bn) but slowed sharply to a level of USD 8bn in 2009.”

5. Infrastructure as an Asset Class Pensions Institute, Cass Business School (Discussion Paper PI-1103; first published in EIB Papers vol. 15 no. 1) · 2010

   “Many industry observers believe that infrastructure was undervalued in the 1990s but enjoyed a revaluation process in the 2000s. Assets appeared to overheat in 2006/2007.”

6. Infrastructure as an Asset Class Pensions Institute, Cass Business School (Discussion Paper PI-1103; first published in EIB Papers vol. 15 no. 1) · 2010

   “Too much money was chasing a limited number of suitable projects, which led to an overvaluation of many assets.”

7. Infrastructure as an Asset Class Pensions Institute, Cass Business School (Discussion Paper PI-1103; first published in EIB Papers vol. 15 no. 1) · 2010

   “According to Preqin, the number of infrastructure funds grew from 44 to 192 between the years 2000 and 2009.”

8. February 2007 Issue | Print Edition | Private Equity International Private Equity International · February 2007

   “The rise of infrastructure investing is creating a hot private equity play.”

9. February 2007 Issue | Print Edition | Private Equity International Private Equity International · February 2007

   “From toll roads in Australia to airports in the UK, infrastructure has become one of the fastest growing asset classes in the world.”

10. PensionDanmark confirms alternatives allocation IPE (Investment & Pensions Europe) · 14 March 2007

    “Because of the current low level of interest rates, it is particularly attractive to supplement bond investments with the type of investment that can be expected to give a higher return than bonds in general”

Reasoning

The evidence shows infrastructure fundraising rising strongly up to 2007 and infrastructure described as one of the fastest growing asset classes [E4, E9]. However, no item links that inflow to other opportunities being overpriced or to a search for yield in infrastructure: E10 does not name infrastructure, and E2/E6 attribute overvaluation to too much money chasing too few projects. So the evidence does not settle the part of the claim that the criteria use to decide the verdict.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “Infrastructure is the most recent investment area to attract rapid increases in capital, partly because other opportunities became overpriced.” (said April 2007). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_d5d02fa9f5d5, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d5d02fa9f5d5