Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

40 claims

40 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved false Dario Amodei Prediction 10 Mar 2025 Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved false Dario Amodei Prediction 10 Mar 2025 Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved false Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 Amodei guessed that within about 10 months AI models would probably get pretty close on typical real-world programming tasks, reaching at least 90%. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI capabilities
Resolved false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 30 Jun 2024 The RN (Le Pen's party) will win an absolute majority in the 2024 French parliamentary elections, with 60% probability as the baseline scenario. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 30 Jun 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved false Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2024 After its first crewed test flight in April 2024, Boeing's Starliner is expected to fly with a crew once a year. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2024 Technology
Resolved false Jim Cramer Prediction 24 May 2023 US politicians will cause investors to lose more money as the May 2023 debt ceiling negotiations drag on. Jim Cramer · Prediction · 24 May 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jim Cramer Prediction 24 May 2023 If the market follows the 2011 debt ceiling pattern, US stocks will fall about 12% from their level on 2023-05-24 to the bottom. Jim Cramer · Prediction · 24 May 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved false Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 6 Apr 2023 The current AI developers will not try the alignment approach he described (filtering training data to nice examples and training on it). Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 AI safety and alignment
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 6 Nov 2022 The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 6 Nov 2022 History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 6 Nov 2022 The coming US recession will not be short and shallow. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved false Dario Amodei Prediction 13 Oct 2022 The situation where several companies can produce good reasoning models will rapidly cease as everyone moves further up the scaling curve. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 13 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Musk said he would be shocked if Tesla did not achieve full self-driving safer than a human in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI capabilities
Resolved false Gary Marcus Prediction 14 Dec 2021 Gary Marcus bet that hybrid (neurosymbolic) AI models would pull ahead in 2022. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Dec 2021 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Tesla Semi will likely be the first vehicle to achieve full autonomy. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Musk said he was highly confident Tesla's cars would drive themselves with reliability in excess of a human in 2021. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 AI capabilities
Resolved false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Safe Level 5 full self-driving can be achieved using only the current Full Self-Driving computer version 1. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 AI capabilities
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects gross investments in 2018 of DKK 16-18 billion, covering offshore wind projects, the Asnæs Power Station biomass conversion and smart meter installation. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements of DKK 12-13 billion, compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that the first Falcon Heavy launch would not be successful. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction 2018 If global existential risks became a big part of 2018-2023, it would be because someone did something incredibly stupid or awful with infectious diseases. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 Other global risks
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction 2017 DONG Energy's REnescience waste treatment plant in Northwich is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that ISIS would not continue to exist as a state entity by the end of 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Resolved false Bill Ackman Prediction Jan 2016 Pershing Square did not believe the events that hit Valeant in 2015 would permanently impair Valeant's intrinsic value. Bill Ackman · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 Oil stocks should do well over the next five years, perhaps regaining much of their losses. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved false Nate Silver Prediction 2015 Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 Other
Resolved false Nate Silver Prediction 2015 In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 Other
Resolved false Marc Andreessen Prediction 20 Aug 2011 Within 10 years of 2011, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 Technology
Resolved false Vinod Khosla Prediction 23 Dec 2010 Traditional lithium-ion bulk batteries will almost certainly not be around in 15 years. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 Technology
Resolved false Ray Dalio Prediction Jun 2010 The next US recession will come sooner than the normal roughly five-year interval, because of the size of the debt. Ray Dalio · Prediction · Jun 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 GMO's seven-year forecast return for the S&P 500 is well below 3%, while the high-quality subset is still handsome. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 The irony may well be that strong economic data in 2010 is likely to be accompanied by a weak stock market. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved false Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Khosla said he believed 50 million acres of US land could supply all US biofuel needs. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New York City home prices will be 5 to 10 percent lower on average a year from September 2006. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Within ten years of 2001, biotechnology advances will add more than a year of life expectancy every year. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Science and research methods
Back to the list

Elon Musk

Open its page

Prediction AI capabilities

“So, yeah, I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than human this year.”

Elon Musk, Tesla CEO, on earnings call 27 January 2022 Tesla Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript (Motley Fool)

Musk said he would be shocked if Tesla did not achieve full self-driving safer than a human in 2022.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

The claim is that Tesla would achieve full self-driving that is safer than a human driver during calendar 2022. The quote's hedge ('would be shocked if we do not') does not change the outcome tested. TRUE: by 31 Dec 2022, Tesla vehicles were driving themselves without needing human supervision (not a supervised driver-assist like FSD Beta), and credible data (Tesla safety reports with a clear method, regulatory data or independent analysis) showed them to be safer than human drivers. MOSTLY TRUE: both of those were met by the end of 2022 but a minor detail differs, such as a narrow geographic limit the claim did not depend on. MOSTLY FALSE: Tesla showed only part of the outcome by the end of 2022 (for example, supervised FSD Beta with safety statistics Tesla says beat humans, but still needing a driver), or achieved unsupervised self-driving only after 2022. FALSE: dated sources from late 2022 or early 2023 (Tesla's Q4 2022 update, regulatory filings, or the FSD Beta terms requiring an attentive driver) show that Tesla's FSD was still a supervised Level 2 system needing an attentive driver at the end of 2022.

Evidence

  1. Part 573 Safety Recall Report 23V-085 NHTSA (U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration), via Tesla's Part 573 recall filing · 15 February 2023
    “FSD Beta is an SAE Level 2 driver support feature that can provide steering and braking/acceleration support to the driver under certain operating limitations.”
  2. Elon Musk is about to masterfully move the goalpost on Tesla Full Self-Driving Electrek · 10 February 2025
    “Reality: Did not reach this milestone; FSD still not fully autonomous.”
  3. Elon Musk: Track Record LongTermWiki · 1 February 2026
    “| Jan 2022 | "Shocked if we don't achieve FSD safer than human this year" | 2022 | Earnings call | ❌ Not achieved | Electrek |”
  4. Tesla Doesn’t Know What to Say Now That California Has Banned FSD Flying Penguin · 26 December 2022
    “Tesla “driverless” still in 2022 is repeatedly failing the most basic tests like staying in the road and driving the correct speed (lane assist + cruise control).”

Reasoning

The NHTSA recall report dated 15 February 2023 (E1) describes FSD Beta as "an SAE Level 2 driver support feature" that supports the driver. That means it was still a supervised system shortly after the 2022 deadline. The resolution criteria name this kind of dated early-2023 regulatory filing as grounds for FALSE. Later independent track-record reviews (E2, E3) also record the milestone as not achieved, and FSD as not fully autonomous.

Cite this claim

Elon Musk, “Musk said he would be shocked if Tesla did not achieve full self-driving safer than a human in 2022.” (said 27 January 2022). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_d4ffdd40603c, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d4ffdd40603c

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.