28,548 claims · page 253 of 286
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | I have not been a great fan of the theory of rational expectations Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Mixed | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jul 2010 | There is a 45% chance the market (S&P 500) rises to over 1400 by October 2011, accompanied by a speculative spin. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jul 2010 | On average, European countries will be better than the U.S. at rationing health costs. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | I, for one, regret the modest nature of our moves. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Temporary bailouts are postponements of a necessary restructuring. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not researched | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jul 2010 | Temperature has steadily risen over the past century while greenhouse gas levels have increased. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 | Other global risks |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | When you have an aging population mix, more of the current year’s GDP pie will be eaten by retirees and less by younger workers, and… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | But even as global equities approach reasonable prices, I would err on the side of caution on the margin. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | We have tolerated a pretty nasty decline in standards. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jul 2010 | Japan, with its social cohesion, should dig its way through the aging-related choices and agree to pay the inevitable high prices more easily than others. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Almost no one wants to change. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Our cost-laden health system is perhaps fi ne if you are willing to pay for it. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jul 2010 | Consumers' changed attitudes toward debt and saving will surely last for years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | we always forget that we are the market, and that all costs are a reduction in our returns. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not researched | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jul 2010 | Since the Russell 2000 was introduced in 1981, small caps have never outperformed in years when the S&P 500 was down 7.5% and small caps began their decline more overpriced than the market. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | I recognize that in this I agree with Krugman, but I can live with that once in a while. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jul 2010 | Grantham said his faith in an eventual decent P/E premium for emerging equities over developed equities, exceeding 15% and perhaps by a lot, remained intact. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Not researched | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jul 2010 | Just over a year before July 2010, Grantham speculated that developed countries, formerly aspiring to 3.5% growth, would do well to reach 2.25% growth for the next seven years. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Both steps are completely the reverse of what is needed. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Here the possibility of rationing health benefi ts to the level society is willing to pay is so anathema that it cannot be talked about… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | We in developed countries are on a collision course with budgetary integrity: given our current policies on health costs we simply cannot… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | In a rational market, structural selling pressures that are not related to long-term value will create a modest mispricing opportunity into… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | This is just physics. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not researched | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jul 2010 | U.S. medical costs are first globally, with the share of GDP going to medical care one-third higher than the average developed country. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jul 2010 | The biggest cost of global warming is likely to be the accumulated loss of biodiversity. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jul 2010 | A 25% market decline in any six-month period has historically had about a 3% probability. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | It may not be particularly rational, but there is a reason. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not researched | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jul 2010 | As of mid-2010, total improvement in personal debt levels in the U.S., U.K. and several European countries is still minimal. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Almost all developed countries are overcommitted to retirement benefi ts, especially health care. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Resolved true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jul 2010 | It would take at least seven years of steady reduction for consumer debt to reach a more normal level. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Being fi red for standing one’s ground for a good cause is always an honorable activity in my opinion. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jul 2010 | Over the last 20 years the market has been mostly overpriced, occasionally spiking down to fair value. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jul 2010 | Non-greenhouse factors such as changes in solar output cannot alone explain the rise in global temperature over the past 50 years. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 | Other global risks |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | This type of mispricing always has a reason. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | As far as I can tell in fi fteen minutes, the Volcker component is a great step forward, but the rest of the bill is modest and very, very… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | indeed, I believe it to be the greatest-ever failure of economic theory Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not researched | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jul 2010 | Grantham said in GMO's previous quarterly letter that UBS had fired Gary Brinson at the peak of the 2000 bull market. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Obviously, we have totally failed on Step 1. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Our culture demands the best that money can buy, combined with unlimited legal liability (courtesy of the legal lobby and all those lovely… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not researched | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jul 2010 | The ordinary taxpayer pays a third more for mediocre or worse aggregate health results and lower life expectancy. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | This struggle is an unusual one, and has created market effects I have never seen before, and you have not either. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not yet due | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jul 2010 | Almost everywhere people will end up working into their late 60s until the baby-bust passes through the population profile, becoming less painful in about 40 years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Own records only | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jul 2010 | In 1985 Grantham's firm was ripped off by its then favorite broker on one of its early program trades. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jul 2010 | Almost 25% of total medical expenses occur in the last year of life. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Proprietary bank capital knows no “clients” by defi nition, and simply extracts money from the market at the expense of the institutional… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | The U.K. may have exceptional credit problems, relatively low productivity, and a vulnerable and bloated fi nancial sector, but it does… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | This market might well be called a fearful, speculative market. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jul 2010 | GMO's seven-year forecast suggests a global equity portfolio can be built returning just over 6% a year plus inflation. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jul 2010 | Global warming will be the most important investment issue for the foreseeable future. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | This extra 4.5% would seem to be without material value except to the recipients. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not researched | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jul 2010 | The U.K. has promised less to retirees than other countries and is more advanced in rationing health costs. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | There are only points for knowing what actually is cheap and owning it. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Forestry remains, in my opinion, a good diversifi er if times turn out well, a brilliant store of value should infl ation unexpectedly run… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Otherwise, I hate it. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | This is logically and mathematically rigorous and yet is still argued. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | The Greeks probably do not have it. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Our infrastructure is sadly neglected even by our own earlier standards, with poor public transportation, decrepit bridges, etc., etc., etc. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Thirty years ago, Hyman Minsky could have told you that this would guarantee a major fi nancial bubble sooner or later and at periodic… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | The U.S., like most countries, has been brilliant in this area on occasion, but these occasions were only during major wars. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Somewhere along the way, without any formal announcement of the change, the “client” in a trade mutated into a “counterparty” who could be… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Such rewriting in the U.S. would require a substantially higher level of taxes, approaching the current rates in Europe Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not researched | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jul 2010 | Atmospheric CO2 has increased by almost 40% since the Industrial Revolution and is rising each year. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 | Other global risks |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Japan is always amazing at the other extreme (although fi nally social cohesion is starting to fray a little) Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Most hard scientists hate themselves or their colleagues for being in the news. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Imbalances destabilize the system. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Outside of wars, the culture is more like the individual über alles and the devil take the hindmost. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | You cannot materially move resources to pay pensioners through time. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | My guess, though, is that the best course is less debt reduction now and a longer, slower reduction later. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | In my opinion, this refusal to make painful choices puts the U.S. fairly high up the list of countries with longer-term fi nancial problems. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Now, this is a non-compute. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | The worrying news is that most European countries, led by Germany (not surprisingly in this case), are coming on more like Hoover than… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jul 2010 | Grantham said it was fairly clear that a weak economy and declining or flat prices were the prospect for the immediate future. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Even without severe aging problems, health costs alone would be a major economic challenge. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | whereas the market responds with much more persistent enthusiasm. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | This is just a guess; I have no good data to prove it. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jul 2010 | Developed countries will be lucky to reach 2% annual growth over the roughly seven years from 2009. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jul 2010 | With progress in human genome research, breathtakingly expensive ways to reduce very rare diseases, hard to ration or resist, will soon appear. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 | Technology |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | I believe that there are two useful steps that can be taken, or could have been. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not researched | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jul 2010 | Under current stresses, the Europeans seem ready to extend the retirement age. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Marketing a “climate” fund would be much easier than outperforming with it. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not researched | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jul 2010 | The fact that smoking caused cancer was deliberately and effectively obfuscated for 20 years, at a cost of hundreds of thousands of extra deaths. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | With our forecast, this can be done by overweighting U.S. high quality stocks and staying very light on other U.S. stocks. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | We all face the choice of reneging or rewriting the social contract. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | But climate warming involves hard science. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jul 2010 | Financial services made up 3% of GDP in 1965, and that decade was a strong candidate for the greatest economic decade of the 20th century. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | The skeptics are far, far more determined and expert propagandists to boot. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | We can pay down all future debts to further ease the problem of the squeezed 30-year period that we know we face. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | The problem that information is asymmetrical in the fi nancial business is a serious one. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jul 2010 | As of mid-2010, stock prices in the developed world, despite a strong recovery, are well below their highs of 10 years earlier and, notably in the U.S., are still overpriced. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | In this sense, a pay-as-yougo pension fund like Germany’s is merely admitting the obvious. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Almost everyone wants to hear good news. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | And with unexpectedly strong fi scal conservatism from Europe and perhaps from us, this slowdown looks downright frightening. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | Well, I, for one, am more or less willing to throw in the towel on behalf of Infl ation. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | The key point here is that the economy responds reluctantly to low rates Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | One of our central problems in investing and in economics in general is our default assumption that “they” (the government) know what they… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Not researched | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jul 2010 | In April 2009 Grantham proposed a 'last hurrah' market rally supported by economic recovery, followed by a long difficult period he called the 'seven lean years'. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | With an aging population, though, health costs and retirement costs balloon and put an intolerable burden on younger workers. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 | |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jul 2010 | He says that a 25% probability for a route he described last quarter for the market and economy would now seem generous. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Not researched | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jul 2010 | Gary Brinson was not fired by UBS; he and UBS had agreed to his withdrawal considerably earlier. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable | Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable | Jul 2010 | It has to be one or the other, either rationing or taxes. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 |
“One of our central problems in investing and in economics in general is our default assumption that “they” (the government) know what they are doing.”
Jeremy Grantham July 2010 GMO Quarterly Letter July 2010 Summer Essays (GMO)
One of our central problems in investing and in economics in general is our default assumption that “they” (the government) know what they…
Not checkable An opinion, value judgement or statement with nothing to check.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “One of our central problems in investing and in economics in general is our default assumption that “they” (the government) know what they…” (said July 2010). Verdict: not checkable. Reliability API, claim c_d45c57ff3bdb, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d45c57ff3bdb
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.