6,750 claims · page 25 of 68
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 29 Mar 2024 | Every type of automation has eventually left people far better off. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 29 Mar 2024 | AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 29 Mar 2024 | About 300 years ago, life expectancy was around 28. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 29 Mar 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Ultimately there will be more and more ways of extending human longevity. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | AI's added intelligence comes from people and will make humans smarter. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 29 Mar 2024 | Eighty years ago, 100 million people died in Europe and Asia in World War II. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 29 Mar 2024 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Large language models will enable people to earn enough to live and spend time on things they enjoy. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Humans will merge with computation and become so intelligent that it cannot be described now. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 29 Mar 2024 | Current AIs are roughly as generally intelligent, as dangerous and as controllable as human 4-year-olds. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 29 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | The part of human intelligence that comes from machines will be backed up and recoverable. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 29 Mar 2024 | AI progress is advancing very quickly, at an exponential rate. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 29 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Humans will be able to live indefinitely without aging, continuing to look as they do now. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | Science and research methods |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Within five years AI coding ability will be as good as humans'; currently it is not quite as good. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Eventually people will be far better off than today despite job disruption from AI. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 29 Mar 2024 | No human being has expert knowledge across every topic; Einstein knew physics but not philosophy. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 29 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 29 Mar 2024 | Yann LeCun gave a lecture hosted by the Center of Mathematical Sciences and Applications at Harvard on 2024-03-28 to a full house. Yann LeCun · Factual · 29 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 29 Mar 2024 | Kurzweil's early computer music program produced melodies recognizable as in the style of Mozart or Chopin, though not quite as good. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 29 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 29 Mar 2024 | Experts at a Stanford conference after 1999 felt passing the Turing test would take 100 years. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 29 Mar 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | In five years one large language model will know everything any human being knows. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 29 Mar 2024 | Kurzweil said atomic weapons were invented when he was a small child, and that two nuclear weapons were exploded in anger within one week. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 29 Mar 2024 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Human longevity will increase rather than decrease, though not guaranteed. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | Science and research methods |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Kurzweil said he thinks humanity will reach longevity escape velocity in five years, by 2029. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | Science and research methods |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Within a few years AI will be able to emulate the intelligence any human being can have. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | By 2029 scientific progress will give people back a full year of life expectancy for each year lived. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | Science and research methods |
| Mostly false | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 29 Mar 2024 | Computation/AI capability has increased 20 quadrillion-fold over 80 years. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 29 Mar 2024 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved true | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 29 Mar 2024 | In the roughly 80 years the speaker refers to, the event he calls "it" has not happened, although atomic weapons are held by people he describes as "not the nicest people in the world". Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 29 Mar 2024 | Other global risks |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | After 2029, people will gain back more than a year of longevity per year, effectively going backwards in time regarding longevity. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | If Yudkowsky's policy proposals are not adopted and a distorted version is used to justify government takeover, a government rather than a private company might kill everyone on Earth. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | AI policy and governance |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Kurzweil predicts that in five years (by 2029) one large language model will know everything that any human being knows. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 29 Mar 2024 | People only want to end their lives when in unbearable pain. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 29 Mar 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly false | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 29 Mar 2024 | Human-caused destruction is declining as humans have grown more intelligent; current wars are less deadly than past ones. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 29 Mar 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 29 Mar 2024 | People today earn about 10 times as much in constant dollars as 100 years ago. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 29 Mar 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 29 Mar 2024 | Life expectancy was 20 a thousand years ago, 35 in 1800, and is now nearly 80. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 29 Mar 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 29 Mar 2024 | Despite job losses to automation, people will continue to be better off. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Factual | 28 Mar 2024 | The linked document is Meta's official response to the NTIA request for comments about AI, whose recommendation number 1 stresses the importance of open foundation models. Yann LeCun · Factual · 28 Mar 2024 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 27 Mar 2024 | Civilization must back off from building artificial superintelligence or it will die; there is no other outcome. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 27 Mar 2024 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 27 Mar 2024 | No institution on Earth can solve AI alignment in time, and extremely likely none can solve it at all. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 27 Mar 2024 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 27 Mar 2024 | If today's civilization is allowed to build superintelligence, everyone will die. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 27 Mar 2024 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 26 Mar 2024 | If a government's privileged-access AI turns into an artificial superintelligence, humanity will be killed. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 26 Mar 2024 | AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 25 Mar 2024 | Yudkowsky was unpleasantly surprised by how well transformers scaled, having believed the human brain is not homogeneous. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 25 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 21 Mar 2024 | The term "Singularity" was named after the breakdown of physical models at the center of a black hole, not after a physical infinity. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 21 Mar 2024 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Factual | 19 Mar 2024 | Donald Trump did not ask Musk for money. Elon Musk · Factual · 19 Mar 2024 | Other |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Factual | 19 Mar 2024 | Political donations from old Twitter were 99% to Democrats. Elon Musk · Factual · 19 Mar 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Factual | 19 Mar 2024 | Old Twitter suspended and suppressed right-leaning accounts 10 times more than left-leaning accounts. Elon Musk · Factual · 19 Mar 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Promise | 19 Mar 2024 | The new Tesla Roadster will have a drive-by-wire yoke like aircraft controls. Elon Musk · Promise · 19 Mar 2024 | Technology |
| Own records only | Elon Musk | Factual | 19 Mar 2024 | Musk typically works 16-hour days. Elon Musk · Factual · 19 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 19 Mar 2024 | As more legal immigrants enter the US, more of them will likely vote Democrat. Elon Musk · Prediction · 19 Mar 2024 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | People can still think even if their language abilities are destroyed by a stroke. Yann LeCun · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | Transformers are equivariant to permutations, as ConvNets are equivariant to translations. Yann LeCun · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | Altman said GPT-5 might be the pivotal moment in AI development, adding that he did not know. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | Compute will become maybe the most precious commodity in the world. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true | Sam Altman | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | OpenAI chose to publicly discuss GPT-1, 2, 3 and 4 rather than build in secret until GPT-5. Sam Altman · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | AI safety and alignment |
| Not yet due | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | Sam Altman said he expects that by the end of this decade, and possibly somewhat sooner, there will be quite capable AI systems that people look at and say are really remarkable. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true | Sam Altman | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | Not long ago, Elon Musk was talking about launching rockets while people laughed at the idea. Sam Altman · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | Other |
| Not yet due | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | By the end of this decade, possibly sooner, there will be quite capable AI systems that people find truly remarkable. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | Altman said he did not think OpenAI would set a precedent here, and that he would heavily discourage others from doing that. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | Altman said it looks like the approach of training on two-dimensional data is going to go surprisingly far, while saying he did not want to speculate much about which limits it would overcome. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Sam Altman | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | Elon Musk wanted total control of OpenAI to turn it around. Sam Altman · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | OpenAI can build a great business that pays for its compute needs without ads. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | AI will get caught up in left-versus-right political wars. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | Generative video and image models will keep getting better. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | Nobody at OpenAI has seen or built AGI. Sam Altman · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | Many videos, maybe most, will use AI tools in production but remain fundamentally driven by a person. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | Altman said he thinks there will be a new paradigm for slower, sequential thinking in AI systems. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Delivered on time | Sam Altman | Promise | 18 Mar 2024 | OpenAI will release an amazing new model in 2024. Sam Altman · Promise · 18 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | Compute will become the currency of the future. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Own records only | Sam Altman | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | Sam Altman has recently been using GPT-4 as a brainstorming partner. Sam Altman · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | Compute will become maybe the most precious commodity in the world. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | The best practitioners of programming will use multiple tools, including natural language and writing C. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Sam Altman | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | Altman said his memory was that Musk's proposal was for OpenAI to be acquired by Tesla, with Tesla having full control, adding that he was "pretty sure" of this. Sam Altman · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | Altman said he expects the improvement from GPT-4 to GPT-5 to be the same as the improvement from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | Chef Alain Ducasse in France has recently offered a bulgur or quinoa and vegetable dish resembling the "Lent Kibbeh", packaged as a "burger". Nassim Taleb · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | Thoughts, memories and reasoning exist without language. Yann LeCun · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | Compute will become the currency of the future. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true | Sam Altman | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | Asked whether OpenAI's compute was in the same nuclear facility, Altman said there is no nuclear facility. Sam Altman · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | Sam Altman does not expect the first AGI to be able to answer those questions, even as yes or no, though he said they would be very high on his list if it could. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | Elon Musk says he cares a great deal about AI safety and is really worried about it. Sam Altman · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | Maybe some people will program entirely in natural language. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | Relatively soon, people will look back at GPT-4 as they now look back at GPT-3. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | Intelligence will become more like energy, with world compute use best described as a function of price. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 18 Mar 2024 | AI model hallucination will not be fully solved in 2024, though upcoming versions will be much better. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Sam Altman | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | Elon Musk chose to part ways with OpenAI. Sam Altman · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | Nassim Taleb has no connection to the website "nassimtaleb.org". Nassim Taleb · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 16 Mar 2024 | Yudkowsky said it is known observationally that something about social media is harming people quite a lot, children more than adults. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 16 Mar 2024 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 15 Mar 2024 | The Mamba architecture can think for more than 200 serial steps per thought. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 15 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 14 Mar 2024 | There are currently no AI systems that can teach themselves to drive a car in about 20 hours of practice, as a 17-year-old can. Yann LeCun · Factual · 14 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 13 Mar 2024 | Almost all OpenPhil and FTXFF money was spent on people who advocated regulating rather than banning advanced AI, plus a few alignment groups accepting OpenPhil's view that alignment would be solvable in time. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 13 Mar 2024 | Field building and careers |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Factual | 12 Mar 2024 | The attached image shows the computing infrastructure used for Llama-3 training. Yann LeCun · Factual · 12 Mar 2024 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 10 Mar 2024 | The white-noise-sounding flat-spectrum signal is the pseudo-random bit sequence used to pre-train an adaptive equalizer that cleans up an analog signal into clean bits. Yann LeCun · Factual · 10 Mar 2024 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Prediction | 8 Mar 2024 | The next major AI breakthrough will come from industry, and such information will disseminate extremely quickly. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Prediction | 8 Mar 2024 | The type of LLMs used today will not be able to make the leap the interviewer asked about, with the main reason given being the way LLMs are trained, by predicting masked words in text. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Prediction | 8 Mar 2024 | In LeCun's opinion, the blueprint of future AI systems (transcribed as "data systems") is that they will plan their answers by optimization before turning them into text, a process he described as Turing complete (transcribed as "turning complete"). Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Prediction | 8 Mar 2024 | World models most probably cannot be built by predicting words, because language is low-bandwidth and does not carry enough information. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Prediction | 8 Mar 2024 | LeCun bets that future AI world-model systems will be JEPA-like architectures rather than generative models, adding that the future will tell. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Prediction | 8 Mar 2024 | Keeping AI systems locked up as proprietary would potentially lead to a future where a few companies control all of our information diet. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Prediction | 8 Mar 2024 | AI will not cause mass unemployment, according to economists LeCun cites. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Prediction | 8 Mar 2024 | As AI systems are made more intelligent, developers will also learn to add guardrails so they behave properly. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Prediction | 8 Mar 2024 | AI assistants will amplify human intelligence. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Prediction | 8 Mar 2024 | Joint-embedding world models could possibly enable car driving, but it will take a while to get to that point. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 8 Mar 2024 | Training an encoder to reconstruct images does not lead it to produce good generic image features, though the encoder architecture is good. Yann LeCun · Factual · 8 Mar 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Prediction | 8 Mar 2024 | Bad actors will not have AI technology superior to that of good actors. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 | AI policy and governance |
“By 2029, you’re going to get back a full year.”
Ray Kurzweil, interviewee 29 March 2024 The Future Is Nearer with Ray Kurzweil (Nob Hill Gazette)
By 2029 scientific progress will give people back a full year of life expectancy for each year lived.
Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.
Reasoning
deadline 2029 is after 2026-10-30
Cite this claim
Ray Kurzweil, “By 2029 scientific progress will give people back a full year of life expectancy for each year lived.” (said 29 March 2024). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_d079c7e6ad5d, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d079c7e6ad5d
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.