6,750 claims · page 37 of 68
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Anthropic believes some of the larger language models it has seen have figured out how to lie unintentionally. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Training large generative models is becoming almost prohibitively expensive. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 2022 | The current geopolitical environment has increased the probability of significant North American onshoring and energy investment, which would strengthen CP's volume growth over time. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 2022 | Chipotle is on track to achieve management's goal of more than $3 million in average restaurant sales. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | Day One Investors multiplied their equity investment by 18 times versus six times for a zero-fee S&P 500 index fund. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 2022 | Pershing Square believes the businesses it owns have substantial pricing power that will enable them to cover the costs of inflation. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 2022 | Deglobalization appears to be coming to the capital markets, much as the world is deglobalizing. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 31 Dec 2021 | No electric heater is more energy-efficient than any other electric heater. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 31 Dec 2021 | Other |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 29 Dec 2021 | The University of Austin will attract a fair number of students. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 | Field building and careers |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 29 Dec 2021 | Tyler Cowen gave his personal estimate that UFOs are aliens as somewhere between 1 and 10 percent, depending on his mood on a given day. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 29 Dec 2021 | Other |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 29 Dec 2021 | Tyler Cowen said it now seems quite clear that the data the US Navy is picking up on unidentified aerial phenomena are real, not instrument errors or bad eyewitness reports. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 29 Dec 2021 | Other |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 29 Dec 2021 | The food in airports has gotten better over time. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 29 Dec 2021 | Other |
| Own records only | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 29 Dec 2021 | Tyler Cowen and his team did not foresee the Delta variant when making their 2021 predictions, as many others also did not. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 29 Dec 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 29 Dec 2021 | The film Cowen was discussing, which is based on a novel from around 1965, is not on a lot of best-of lists this year. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 29 Dec 2021 | Other |
| Own records only | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 29 Dec 2021 | Tyler Cowen saw about 30 movies in a theater in 2021. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 29 Dec 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 29 Dec 2021 | Tyler Cowen sits on the advisory board of the University of Austin and has no governing role there. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 29 Dec 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Promise | 29 Dec 2021 | Tyler Cowen and Daniel Gross's book Talent will be published by St. Martin's on May 22, 2022. Tyler Cowen · Promise · 29 Dec 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 29 Dec 2021 | The University of Austin will genuinely court STEM majors and give them a rigorous education. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 | Field building and careers |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 29 Dec 2021 | The University of Austin will genuinely teach classic works. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 | Field building and careers |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 29 Dec 2021 | Current AI, being an approximation to intelligence rather than the real thing, will never really be trustworthy. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 | AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 29 Dec 2021 | Primary contributions to child outcomes tend to be genetic, though at the margin family culture matters. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 29 Dec 2021 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 21 Dec 2021 | There are 365.2422 days between spring equinoxes, 365.259636 days between Earth's perihelions, and 365.25 days in a light-year. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 21 Dec 2021 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Factual | 20 Dec 2021 | Gary Marcus wrote the 2001 book The Algebraic Mind, and its predictions have so far held true. Gary Marcus · Factual · 20 Dec 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 14 Dec 2021 | Gary Marcus bet that hybrid (neurosymbolic) AI models would pull ahead in 2022. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Dec 2021 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 10 Dec 2021 | Jeff Bezos appeared with Michael Strahan on Thursday Night Football and gave him a gift. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 10 Dec 2021 | Other |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 10 Dec 2021 | DeepMind has published work applying AI to quantum chemistry in Science magazine. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 10 Dec 2021 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 10 Dec 2021 | The properties of materials largely depend on their electrons. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 10 Dec 2021 | Science and research methods |
| Delivered on time | Demis Hassabis | Promise | 9 Dec 2021 | DeepMind will release more than 100 million protein structures over the next year, covering almost every sequenced protein known to science. Demis Hassabis · Promise · 9 Dec 2021 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 9 Dec 2021 | The AlphaFold database doubled in size on 9 December 2021 and now includes more than 800,000 structures. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 9 Dec 2021 | Science and research methods |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Factual | 7 Dec 2021 | Source Code covers Bill Gates's life from his childhood through the early days of Microsoft. Bill Gates · Factual · 7 Dec 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 6 Dec 2021 | Fred Hiatt, long-time Editorial Page Editor of the Washington Post, died on 2021-12-06. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 6 Dec 2021 | Other |
| Mostly true | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 5 Dec 2021 | People in counties that voted heavily for Donald Trump in the last presidential election have been nearly three times as likely to die from COVID-19. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 5 Dec 2021 | Biosecurity |
| Not yet due | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 1 Dec 2021 | The US can build 6000 fusion boilers by 2040. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Dec 2021 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 1 Dec 2021 | In the 10 years before WWII the US built 10 warships (Emergency Shipbuilding), and in the 5 years following it built 6000 warships. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 1 Dec 2021 | Other |
| Not yet due | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 1 Dec 2021 | Khosla said he was optimistic that all coal and natural gas plants "in this country" can be replaced before 2040. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Dec 2021 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 28 Nov 2021 | There is no legal duty for a corporation's board or management to maximize its profits. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 28 Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | The future business model of governments will be subscription and inflation. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 17 Nov 2021 | Under FDR, a broad interpretation of the Interstate Commerce Clause effectively repealed the 10th Amendment, leaving states without real rights. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 17 Nov 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | He thinks counter-decentralization efforts in the West will fail. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 17 Nov 2021 | For the fourth year in a row, the Bezos Day 1 Families Fund is making donations to organizations helping families in need across the U.S. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 17 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 17 Nov 2021 | YouTube is not regulated like television, and publishing on it requires no TV broadcast license. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 17 Nov 2021 | Technology |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | Within roughly 10 to 20 years, India could become an intermediate between American anarchy and total Chinese control. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | If the US suffered a clear foreign military defeat, there could be an economic markdown of the US, as with Russia after World War I. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | Companies, currencies, cities, countries and communities will all become the same thing, essentially the projection of a social network. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 17 Nov 2021 | Miami has accepted some city coins and Texas is big in Bitcoin mining. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 17 Nov 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | India may be a big component of the decentralized side in the China versus decentralized world split by around 2040. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Other global risks |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 17 Nov 2021 | The newspapers' coverage essentially got President Nixon forced out of office. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 17 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | Issuing a currency will become a new business model, as companies, cities and countries issue currencies that trade alongside digital currencies. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | It is certainly possible that at some point in the future "they" will try something like Executive Order 6102. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | The unbundling and rebundling of countries when Pax Americana falls will probably be a messy global process. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | Over the next 20-40 years, the century will line up as a centralized China versus a decentralized world. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | Supply chain disruptions will start forcing a greater degree of autarky (national or local self-sufficiency). Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | A US executive order seizing Bitcoin could kick off serious civil unrest. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | Srinivasan said he thinks that by 2040 or 2050, maybe sooner, there could in theory be robotic, autarkic farms run by giving instructions to robotic field hands. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | Crypto entrepreneurs will write model legislation that will be adopted by states such as Texas, Wyoming, Colorado and Florida, including laws preventing Bitcoin seizures. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | If a shooting war involving the US occurs, Balaji Srinivasan thinks it quite likely that the US loses. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Other global risks |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | The DeFi matrix will be to the 2020s what the social graph was to the previous decade. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | Drones and similar technologies may make government enforcement of compliance cheaper, a trend he places around the late 2030s to 2040. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | Counter-decentralization (state control over networks) will succeed in China and fail in the US. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | The next political model will be 'crowd choice': a search engine of jurisdictions (rows) and policies (columns) that people and groups use to find a jurisdiction matching their preferences. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | He said he thinks "these laws" will get reexamined. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | In future tokenized cities, the price of a city's real-estate token will probably determine whether its leader is reelected. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 17 Nov 2021 | Balaji Srinivasan said he was cautiously optimistic that India and China would both maintain some degree of stability. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly false | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 17 Nov 2021 | 22 Walgreens stores are closing in San Francisco because of shoplifting. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 17 Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 16 Nov 2021 | In open-ended tasks such as driving, humans outperform AI systems. Gary Marcus · Factual · 16 Nov 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 15 Nov 2021 | Deep neural nets, nearly 10 years after their celebrated rebirth, are still utterly fooled by images like the one shown. Gary Marcus · Factual · 15 Nov 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 12 Nov 2021 | Demis Hassabis spoke at COP26 in the week before 12 November 2021 about how AI can potentially help with the climate crisis. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 12 Nov 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 11 Nov 2021 | People share values with those close to them in their social network rather than with those close in physical space. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 11 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 11 Nov 2021 | If the first network state is successfully instantiated, the process will eventually become a template for anyone to start a country from their computer, beginning by building a following. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 11 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 11 Nov 2021 | The concept can be called 'dynamic digital geography', after a term Patri Friedman introduced and used for seasteading. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 11 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly false | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 11 Nov 2021 | Russia switched its ideology in 1991 from communism to nationalism. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 11 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 11 Nov 2021 | There is no public list of all Facebook and Twitter members. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 11 Nov 2021 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 11 Nov 2021 | A suitably talented administrator may be able to found successive polities (like Plymouth Colony, Massachusetts, then the US) as iterated network states within one lifetime. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 11 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 11 Nov 2021 | The Twitter and Facebook networks are each bigger than France or Germany combined. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 11 Nov 2021 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 10 Nov 2021 | Eliezer Yudkowsky has often criticized the Federal Reserve for not creating enough money fast enough. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 10 Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 6 Nov 2021 | As a worst-case ('pessimal') prediction, Yudkowsky said the Fed would stay wrong about rising NGDP flow being the real cause of inflation until a Republican won the 2024 presidential election, after which it would decide interest rates needed to go way up. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 2 Nov 2021 | The Bezos Earth Fund is working with them (those the post says oversee one of the most diverse regions on earth) to help create the largest (post truncated). Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Nov 2021 | Other global risks |
| Mostly true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 2 Nov 2021 | Jeff Bezos is one of the founding funders of Prince William's Earthshot Prize. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Nov 2021 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 1 Nov 2021 | Indigenous peoples are custodians of over a third of the world's tropical forests. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1 Nov 2021 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 1 Nov 2021 | Aaron Beck, developer of cognitive therapy, has died. Gary Marcus · Factual · 1 Nov 2021 | Other |
| Resolved true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | The author's specialty is decision making under uncertainty, not theology. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | Shiite Islam shares many features with Christianity, such as a twelve-based structure, the last of whom is associated with Jesus, and self-flagellation rituals commemorating martyrdom. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | Orthodox Christianity has stiffer dietary laws than Western Christianity, with veganism more than 200 days per year. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly false | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | Economic forecasts work no better than astrology. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | It took about seventeen centuries from the 'eye of the needle' passage in Matthew 19:24 to the conception of organized communism and theories of social equality. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | Darwinian ideas of evolutionary differences within species naturally lead to notions of eugenics, that humans can improve the race by speeding evolution. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | Some influence may have run from Christianity to Judaism, the reverse of the usual view that Christianity descends from Judaism. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | The notion of epistemic belief is entirely modern. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | Charles Murray lacks statistical knowledge and decided African Americans were inferior before choosing statistical methods to justify it. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly false | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | During Covid, some people openly called for geronticide and for letting 'fat people' die. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | Jesus was the first ancient deity to suffer the punishment of a slave, the lowest-ranking member of humanity. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | The Enlightenment, with the growth of 'science', started finding statistical differences in abilities between people of different races. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | Holland refuted the myth that Christians destroyed the intellectual production of the classical periods while the Arabs preserved some of it. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | Christianity was the vehicle by which separation of church and state was accomplished. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | Emperor Julian did not realize that paganism was a decentralized, overlapping set of club-like affiliations to gods, and tried to organize it like the Church. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | Europe is neither a continent, a language group nor a race, since over 100 million EU citizens are olive-skinned and hardly distinguishable from other Mediterraneans. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | Nassim Taleb argued against IQ theories on statistical grounds, showing IQ to be a fake construct. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | Vatican II's translation of prayers from Latin into vernaculars largely removed the element of mystery from Catholicism. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 31 Oct 2021 | The Prince of Wales has been involved in fighting climate change and protecting the environment for longer than most people. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 31 Oct 2021 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 31 Oct 2021 | Jeff Bezos discussed climate issues with the Prince of Wales on the eve of COP26. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 31 Oct 2021 | Other global risks |
“Holland correctly busted that myth”
Nassim Taleb, essay author November 2021 On Christianity (foreword for Tom Holland's Dominion) (Medium/Incerto)
Holland refuted the myth that Christians destroyed the intellectual production of the classical periods while the Arabs preserved some of it.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of November 2021. True: Tom Holland (e.g. in 'Dominion') explicitly argues against the claim that Christians destroyed classical intellectual output while Arabs preserved it, and mainstream historical scholarship supports his rebuttal (e.g. Christian monastic and Byzantine copying preserved most surviving classical texts). Mostly true: Holland does rebut this, and scholarship largely agrees, with nuance (e.g. Arab translation preserved some works, and some Christian destruction occurred). Mixed: Holland addresses the myth only in part, or the scholarship is evenly divided. Mostly false: Holland does not really argue this, or scholars regard his rebuttal as an overstatement. False: Holland makes no such argument, or the scholarly evidence supports the 'myth'.
Evidence
- Tom Holland is taking on the secular humanists. And he’s winning. Premier Unbelievable? (review by Esther O’Reilly) · 8 January 2020
“Christian monks, he pointed out, have in fact been the book-leggers of the West from time immemorial, preserving not only biblical texts but many classical works.”
- Dell Nov 25 Bits Transcript Youtube Debate AC Grayling and Tom Holland Cf Dominion, Christian Values, Radioactive Chernobyl, Fish Water Scribd (uploaded transcript of a YouTube debate between AC Grayling and Tom Holland) · 4 November 2026
“classical works were regularly copied by the monks that Antonia so dismissive of”
- Tom Holland is taking on the secular humanists. And he’s winning. Premier Unbelievable? (review by Esther O’Reilly) · 8 January 2020
“Christian monks, he pointed out, have in fact been the book-leggers of the West from time immemorial, preserving not only biblical texts but many classical works.”
- Introduction - The Cambridge Intellectual History of Byzantium Cambridge University Press · 4 November 2017
“It is regularly acknowledged – even if only grudgingly – that the Byzantines were responsible for preserving almost all ancient Greek literature that we have today.”
Reasoning
The evidence shows Holland saying that Christian monks preserved many classical works (E1/E3, E2), and a scholarly source saying the Byzantines preserved almost all surviving Greek literature (E4). It does not show Holland addressing the claim that Arabs preserved the classical heritage, and it contains none of the nuance that the 'mostly true' grade rested on, so the evidence does not settle which grade under the criteria applies.
Cite this claim
Nassim Taleb, “Holland refuted the myth that Christians destroyed the intellectual production of the classical periods while the Arabs preserved some of it.” (said November 2021). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_cb1ae236fcdc, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_cb1ae236fcdc
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.