Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

6,750 claims · page 59 of 68

6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 20 Aug 2011 In 2011 cars' software runs engines, controls safety features, provides entertainment and navigation, and connects cars to mobile, satellite and GPS networks. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Technology
Mixed Marc Andreessen Factual 20 Aug 2011 As of 2011, Netflix was the largest video service by number of subscribers. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved false Marc Andreessen Prediction 20 Aug 2011 Within 10 years of 2011, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 Technology
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 20 Aug 2011 In 2011 running a basic Internet application in Amazon's cloud cost about $1,500 a month. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Technology
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 20 Aug 2011 As of 2011, LinkedIn was the fastest growing recruiting company. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual 20 Aug 2011 Marc Andreessen said Disney had to buy Pixar, a software company, to remain relevant in animated movies. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual 20 Aug 2011 Videogame makers are today's fastest growing entertainment companies, with the industry growing to $60 billion from $30 billion five years earlier. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 15 Aug 2011 The tax burdens of the other 20 people in Buffett's office ranged from 33 to 41 percent and averaged 36 percent. Warren Buffett · Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 15 Aug 2011 The mega-rich in the US continue to receive extraordinary tax breaks, as of August 2011. Warren Buffett · Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 15 Aug 2011 Some investment managers among the mega-rich earn billions of dollars from their work. Warren Buffett · Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 15 Aug 2011 The mega-rich pay income taxes at 15 percent on most of their earnings but pay practically nothing in payroll taxes. Warren Buffett · Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 15 Aug 2011 Buffett's 2010 federal tax payment was 17.4 percent of his taxable income, a lower percentage than that paid by any of the other 20 people in his office. Warren Buffett · Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 15 Aug 2011 Some mega-rich investment managers who earn billions are allowed to classify their income as carried interest, which is taxed at a 15 percent rate. Warren Buffett · Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 15 Aug 2011 Warren Buffett's 2010 federal tax bill, including income tax and payroll taxes paid by and on behalf of him, was $6,938,744. Warren Buffett · Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 15 Aug 2011 Holders of stock index futures for 10 minutes have 60 percent of their gain taxed at 15 percent, as if they were long-term investors. Warren Buffett · Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 6 Jun 2011 The company being discussed, which the resolution criteria take to be Family Dollar, has 14% of its sales in higher-margin products, compared with figures of 22% and 20% that the speaker cited for comparison. Bill Ackman · Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 6 Jun 2011 Family Dollar spends about $325,000 per new store, by Ackman's estimate. Bill Ackman · Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 6 Jun 2011 The business being discussed has net debt of about $100 million and is a profitable, consistent business. Bill Ackman · Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 6 Jun 2011 Ackman said the business he was describing earns a 20% return on capital overall. Bill Ackman · Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Own records only Bill Ackman Factual 6 Jun 2011 Bill Ackman says his firm makes about 15% of its money from passive ideas. Bill Ackman · Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 6 Jun 2011 Dollar General performs much better than Family Dollar. Bill Ackman · Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Own records only Bill Ackman Promise 6 Jun 2011 Bill Ackman says he will send out all the slides from his presentation. Bill Ackman · Promise · 6 Jun 2011 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 6 Jun 2011 If the business matched what KKR and the management team achieved at Dollar General, keeping the multiple the same as Dollar General's, investors would make a 70% profit versus the prior night's close. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 6 Jun 2011 Family Dollar expects to complete its $750 million buyback by fall 2011. Bill Ackman · Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 6 Jun 2011 Family Dollar will return to 5-7% annual unit growth. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 6 Jun 2011 Bill Ackman says he had an even better GDP-type idea but it was not liquid enough to present at the conference. Bill Ackman · Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 6 Jun 2011 Drug stores, which sell the same kind of goods, charge 20% more, and supermarkets about 15% more, than the retailer being discussed. Bill Ackman · Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Mixed Bill Ackman Factual 6 Jun 2011 Family Dollar trades at a price-earnings ratio of 14. Bill Ackman · Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Mixed Bill Ackman Factual 6 Jun 2011 Family Dollar continues to take market share even during difficult economic environments. Bill Ackman · Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 6 Jun 2011 Family Dollar is consolidating stores. Bill Ackman · Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 From Burry's point of view at the time, Goldman Sachs had been moving to his side of the subprime short trade as early as December 2006 and was working to get into the trade even bigger in spring 2007. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Credit derivatives on an underlying asset could be worth multiple orders of magnitude more than the asset because all asset-backed derivatives settled in cash. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Burry wrote a paper in 1994, as a summer extern at the Rehabilitation Institute of Chicago, on why rehabilitation medicine was doing well. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Michael Burry Prediction 5 Apr 2011 Burry said he expected the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term. Michael Burry · Prediction · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Burry decided to short the mortgage market, intending to profit from its collapse. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Burry left medicine with $145,000 in debt and no assets under management when starting Scion Capital. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Michael Burry's formal education is not in finance. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 AIG did not need to post collateral for its derivatives trades as long as it held a AA or better credit rating. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Fed Chairman Bernanke says the Federal Reserve is not printing money. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Under QE II, the Federal Reserve monetizes roughly $7 to $8 billion of Treasuries each day, according to a daily Fed email. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Around December 2006, Burry's fund liquidated billions of dollars of corporate credit default swap short positions in a fire sale instead of liquidating the fund. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Burry ran a website during the latter half of the 1990s on which he posted his thoughts about stocks and markets. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 In late 2005 technical factors, including synthetic CDOs and ABX indices, kept credit derivative markets from signalling a warning about subprime risk. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly false Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 AIG was nationalized a few years after 2005 and the nationalization cost taxpayers some $180 billion. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Two trillion seconds equals about 64,000 years. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Other
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 After Burry criticized index funds and hyperlinked to Vanguard on his website, Vanguard's attorneys told him to cease and desist. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Burry's proposed "Milton's Opus" never got off the ground, after his investors met it with scepticism and outside institutions he approached went off to do the idea themselves. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Of the people at troubled major institutions and relevant government departments whose insight about the crisis matched or exceeded Burry's, none was in the top job. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly false Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Wall Street firms all used one single risk model in the mid-2000s. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Secretary Paulson now claims that even had he known what was going to happen, he could not have done anything about it. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly false Michael Burry Prediction 5 Apr 2011 US interest expense on the national debt alone could exceed $1 trillion by 2020. Michael Burry · Prediction · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 Fertilizer resources such as potash and potassium will become particularly precious. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2011 In the 8 years to 2011, resource prices rose enough to undo the effects of the previous 100-year decline. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 If China stumbles and weather improves together, commodity markets will very probably break en masse. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 World population will have risen from 1 billion to at least 8 billion, and possibly 11 billion, over the 1800 to about 2050 window. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 If weather is friendly in the next year, grain will be in glut because farmers are planting every tillable acre. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 A constrained-resource world will see per capita affluence rise more slowly than otherwise and than in the past, leaving everyone but resource owners worse off. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 If sun and rain come at the right time and place, there will be an absolute record crop. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Own records only Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 Several GMO colleagues agree with Jim Chanos that China's structural imbalances will cause at least one wheel to come off its economy within the next 12 months. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 If bad China and better weather outcomes strike together, it will produce a second once-in-a-lifetime commodity event in three years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2011 China, with nearly 1.3 billion people, started doubling its economy every 10 years or less, starting around 21 years before 2011. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2011 Malthus's 1798 writing accurately described the past development of the human species. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2011 Commodity prices in general declined steadily throughout the 20th century. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2011 Commodity marginal cost increases of about 2.0% a year were outweighed by annual productivity increases of 3.2% over the 20th century. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Own records only Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2011 None of these potential experts came within one billionth of 1% of the actual number, which is approximately 10^57. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2011 In April 2011, GMO said that, as far as it was able to determine and while noting it was not an expert in oil costs, the full cost of finding and delivering a major chunk of new oil was about $70 to $80 a barrel. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 There is a high probability that extreme weather will be a feature of the future. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Other global risks
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2011 Wood availability was probably the most limiting factor on world economic growth before hydrocarbons. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 China's capital spending of about 50% of GDP cannot be sustained, and much of it is likely wasted. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 This is likely the beginning of the end of the rapid growth in population and wealth driven by the Hydrocarbon Revolution. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 Raw material prices will rise and shortages will be common in a more resource-constrained world. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 Almost all countries other than the U.S. will suffer lower growth from resource limits, but resource-rich countries will benefit relatively as terms of trade move in their favor. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Own records only Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2011 Grantham's foundation is taking a small position, about one-quarter of its eventual target, in resources in the ground and resource efficiency. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 Hubbert's revised estimate that global oil production would peak around 2016, give or take, could prove remarkably accurate. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 Agricultural commodity prices are generally expected to fall in 2012 if the weather improves. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 There is about an 80% chance that China stumbles or weather is better than expected, in which case commodity prices will decline a lot. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 There is at least a 1 in 4 chance that China stumbles economically in the next year or so. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2011 About 50% of China's GDP went into capital spending, partly as an effort to keep the economy afloat during the Western banking collapse. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Whispersync is built around an eventually consistent replicated data store with application-defined conflict resolution able to handle device isolation lasting weeks or longer. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Amazon built its storage solutions by leaning heavily on core principles from distributed systems and database research. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2011 If China stumbles and weather is better than expected together, commodity prices will very probably break en masse. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Building a product detail page on Amazon.com calls on between 200 and 300 services. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Own records only Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Amazon's key data services store many petabytes of data and handle millions of requests per second. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Mixed Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 AWS Simple Storage Service, Elastic Block Store and SimpleDB derive their basic architecture from unique Amazon technologies. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Amazon developed several purpose-built persistence solutions, including its own key-value store and single table store. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Amazon applied service-oriented architecture long before SOA became an industry buzzword. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Amazon applies nearly all the patterns found in current software architecture textbooks. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 The storage systems Amazon has pioneered relax synchronization requirements for updates that need to be disseminated to large numbers of replicas, which lets them survive under the harshest performance and availability conditions. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Available bandwidth, disk space and processing power are increasing extraordinarily and continue to get cheaper quickly. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Amazon's architects and engineers have had to advance research in directions no academic had yet taken. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Science and research methods
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Amazon's technologies are almost exclusively implemented as services with hardened interfaces as the only access to functionality. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Amazon's storage system implementations are based on eventual consistency. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Service-oriented architecture is the fundamental building abstraction for Amazon technologies. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Amazon uses trained random forests of decision trees to incorporate thousands of product attributes at rank time. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Amazon's search considers many relevance factors to predict customer interest probability and optimize result ranking. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Data management advances by Amazon engineers were the starting point for the architectures of AWS cloud storage and data management services. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Amazon's e-commerce platform is a federation of hundreds of software services covering recommendations, order fulfillment and inventory tracking. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Own records only Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Many problems Amazon faces have no textbook solutions, so Amazon invents new approaches. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Own records only Vinod Khosla Factual 23 Dec 2010 Khosla told his investors when starting the fund that they were non-fiduciary investors and not to count on them being fiduciary. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 23 Dec 2010 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 23 Dec 2010 If biofuel costs reach $75 a barrel, they will keep falling to $30 a barrel in real dollars. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 Economics and markets
Back to the list

Jeff Bezos

Open its page

Factual Technology

“The advances in data management developed by Amazon engineers have been the starting point for the architectures underneath the cloud storage and data management services offered by Amazon Web Services (AWS).”

Jeff Bezos, CEO, in shareholder letter 2011 2010 Letter to Shareholders (SEC (Amazon))

Data management advances by Amazon engineers were the starting point for the architectures of AWS cloud storage and data management services.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

True: Amazon or AWS technical sources, or independent technical accounts up to 2011, show that AWS storage and data-management services (such as S3, SimpleDB and EBS) were built on architectures that began with data-management work Amazon engineers did for Amazon's own retail systems, for example Dynamo-derived techniques. Mostly true: this lineage is documented for most of these services, with minor exceptions. Mixed: it is documented for some services but not for others of comparable importance. Mostly false: the link is tenuous, with AWS services mainly built on outside or unrelated architectures and only loosely inspired by internal work. False: the evidence shows AWS storage and data services were not based on internal Amazon data-management advances.

Evidence

  1. Amazon's Dynamo All Things Distributed (Werner Vogels, Amazon CTO blog) · 2 October 2007 Own record
    “Let me emphasize the internal technology part before it gets misunderstood: Dynamo is not directly exposed externally as a web service; however, Dynamo and similar Amazon technologies are used to power parts of our Amazon Web Services, such as S3.”
  2. Dynamo (storage system) - Wikipedia Wikipedia · 11 April 2008 Own record
    “The index layer of Amazon S3 implements and extends many core features of Dynamo.”
  3. A Decade of Dynamo: Powering the next wave of high-performance, internet-scale applications All Things Distributed (Werner Vogels, Amazon CTO blog) · 2 October 2017 Own record
    “So, we set out to build a fully hosted AWS database service based upon the original Dynamo design.”
  4. Dynamo, DynamoDB, and Aurora DSQL brooker.co.za (Marc Brooker blog) · 11 April 2015 Own record
    “Instead of replicating across multiple nodes in the ring, in DynamoDB each node consists of a replica group with multiple servers in multiple AZs using Paxos to replicate the data.”

Reasoning

E1 and E2 indicate that S3 draws on Dynamo and similar internal Amazon technology. No evidence item addresses SimpleDB or EBS before 2011, and E3 and E4 are later accounts about DynamoDB. The evidence therefore does not show whether the lineage holds for most of the services the claim names, as the criteria require.

Cite this claim

Jeff Bezos, “Data management advances by Amazon engineers were the starting point for the architectures of AWS cloud storage and data management services.” (said 2011). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_c97cc0e4fe3b, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c97cc0e4fe3b

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.