18 claims
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved false | Demis Hassabis | Promise | 20 May 2026 | Google DeepMind will release a Gemini 3.5 Pro model following Gemini 3.5 Flash. Demis Hassabis · Promise · 20 May 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 28 Jan 2026 | Tesla hopes to debut the next-generation Roadster in April 2026. Elon Musk · Promise · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 28 Jan 2026 | Tesla will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. Elon Musk · Promise · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Warren Buffett | Promise | 5 May 2024 | Poor Charlie's Almanack will be the only book at the Berkshire meeting bookstore next year. Warren Buffett · Promise · 5 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 24 Jan 2024 | Musk said he thinks Tesla has a good chance of shipping some number of Optimus units in 2025, and he called Optimus a brand-new product. Elon Musk · Promise · 24 Jan 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 24 Jan 2024 | Musk said Tesla's current schedule is to start production toward the end of 2025, sometime in the second half, while noting that he is often optimistic regarding time. Elon Musk · Promise · 24 Jan 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Guidance | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla expects growth in 2022 over 2021 comfortably above 50%. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Guidance | 27 Jan 2022 | If able to respond to demand, Tesla's energy business might grow by about 200% to 300% in 2022 rather than about 50%. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 3 Mar 2021 | SpaceX will attempt a Starship launch on 4 March 2021, with the window opening at 9am. Elon Musk · Promise · 3 Mar 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Tesla Semi will likely be the first vehicle to achieve full autonomy. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Guidance | 27 Jan 2021 | Tesla targets 100 gigawatt-hours of Tesla-produced cells in 2022. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | Feb 2018 | Ørsted expects gross investments in 2018 of DKK 16-18 billion, covering offshore wind projects, the Asnæs Power Station biomass conversion and smart meter installation. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | Feb 2018 | Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements of DKK 12-13 billion, compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 16 Jun 2017 | SpaceX plans to send a Dragon 2 propulsive lander to Mars in about two years, and probably another Dragon mission in 2020. Elon Musk · Promise · 16 Jun 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Promise | 2017 | DONG Energy will stop using coal altogether at its power plants from 2023. Ørsted · Promise · 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | 2017 | DONG Energy's REnescience waste treatment plant in Northwich is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 20 Jul 2016 | Tesla plans to create an integrated solar-roof-with-battery product and scale it throughout the world. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Apr 2007 | GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 | Their own work or organisation |
“We will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months.”
Elon Musk, Tesla CEO, on earnings call 28 January 2026 Tesla Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript (Motley Fool)
Tesla will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months.
Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
'A few months' after 28 Jan 2026 is read as up to about six months, so the deadline is 28 Jul 2026. True: Tesla publicly unveiled a robot it calls Optimus 3 (or Optimus V3 / Gen 3) on or before 28 Jul 2026, at an event, in a video or demonstration, or in an official presentation. Mostly true: the unveiling happened by the deadline but a minor detail differs (for example, the naming). Mostly false: Tesla gave only a partial preview, such as teaser images or a brief glimpse that it did not present as the unveiling, by the deadline, or the unveiling came after 28 Jul 2026. False: dated reports or Tesla statements show that no Optimus 3 unveiling had taken place by 28 Jul 2026, for example a reported delay or a later earnings call still describing the unveiling as upcoming.
Evidence
- Tesla’s Optimus Gen 3, Figure 04 and the Next Apollo: When Each Could Be Revealed Humanoids Daily · 26 October 2026
“Seven months on, Tesla still has not shown it, even though it is building robots in volume.”
- Tesla’s Optimus Gen 3, Figure 04 and the Next Apollo: When Each Could Be Revealed Humanoids Daily · 26 October 2026
“Tesla missed its own Q1 2026 target to show Gen 3, is already building V3-labeled robots in Fremont and plans customer deliveries toward the end of 2027.”
- Elon Musk shuts down '4D chess' theory on Tesla Optimus production Electrek · 2 July 2026
“Tesla has also pushed the Optimus V3 reveal back repeatedly through 2026, which is the very delay Doctor Jack’s theory was trying to explain away.”
- Will Tesla publicly unveil the Optimus V3 robot before 31 December 2026? Asturna · 18 October 2026
“Not unveiled as of 10 August 2026. Initial target Q1 2026, pushed to "mid-2026", then no date given on the Q2 earnings call of 22 July 2026.”
Reasoning
An independent feature dated 26 October 2026 says Tesla "still has not shown" Optimus Gen 3. It also says Tesla missed its own Q1 2026 target to show Gen 3 (E1, E2). Electrek reported on 2 July 2026 that the Optimus V3 reveal had been pushed back repeatedly through 2026 (E3). A forecasting page says the robot had not been unveiled as of 10 August 2026 and that Tesla gave no date on its 22 July 2026 Q2 earnings call (E4). Together, these dated reports show that no unveiling happened by the 28 July 2026 deadline.
Cite this claim
Elon Musk, “Tesla will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months.” (said 28 January 2026). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_c57cfcc49a50, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c57cfcc49a50
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.