117 claims · page 1 of 2
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 27 Jul 2025 | OpenAI will release GPT-5 imminently. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 27 Jul 2025 | GPT-5 will still make a significant number of obvious errors that are hard to predict. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 27 Jul 2025 | If the model being discussed has guardrails like ChatGPT's, they will teeter between being too weak (beaten by jailbreaks) and too strong (rejecting some perfectly reasonable requests). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 27 Jul 2025 | GPT-5 by itself will not be a general-purpose AGI capable of arbitrary tasks. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Prediction | 23 Jul 2025 | Asked whether it would be nuclear fusion, Demis Hassabis said he thinks fusion and solar are the two energy sources he would bet on. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 3 Apr 2025 | In the AI 2027 scenario, the government becomes extremely interested in AI and discusses nationalizing the AI companies. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | US export controls may have the effect of stimulating China's chip development. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 28 Feb 2025 | By the end of 2025, AI will do very serious things in coding. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 28 Feb 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Prediction | 4 Feb 2025 | Some government policies affecting climate work will become less favorable than before. Bill Gates · Prediction · 4 Feb 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Marc Andreessen | Prediction | 26 Jan 2025 | Andreessen said energy independence and large net energy exports are a matter of choice, and that he thinks the new Trump administration will choose to pursue them. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 1 Jan 2025 | AI Safety Institutes will offer guidance in 2025 but have little legal authority to stop truly dangerous models. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 1 Jan 2025 | Profits from AI models will remain modest or nonexistent in 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 1 Jan 2025 | Lack of reliability will continue to afflict generative AI in 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 1 Jan 2025 | Artificial general intelligence will not be achieved in 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 1 Jan 2025 | Hallucinations will continue to afflict generative AI in 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 1 Jan 2025 | Less than 10% of the workforce will be replaced by AI in 2025, probably less than 5%. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 | AI, the economy and work |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 1 Jan 2025 | The US will continue to have very little regulation protecting consumers from generative AI risks in 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 1 Jan 2025 | AI agents will be heavily hyped throughout 2025 but remain far from reliable, except possibly in very narrow use cases. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 1 Jan 2025 | Rodney Brooks wrote on 2025-01-01 that New Glenn's launch seemed imminent. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 1 Jan 2025 | AI power consumption will rise in 2025 and remain a major problem, while few generative AI companies will be transparent about their usage. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 1 Jan 2025 | No single AI system will solve more than 4 of the AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks by the end of 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 1 Jan 2025 | In 2025 humanoid robotics will see a lot of hype, but nobody will release a robot remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 11 Nov 2024 | Dario Amodei said he would not be surprised at all if Anthropic's models hit ASL-3 in 2025. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 27 Aug 2024 | France may not be able to hold Telegram founder Pavel Durov in custody for long. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 27 Aug 2024 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Prediction | Aug 2024 | Chipotle is on track to open approximately 300 new restaurants in 2024 and expects to more than double its store base to at least 7,000 North American locations over time. Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Prediction | Aug 2024 | CPKC expects to exit 2024 with C$800 million of new business from revenue synergies. Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 4 May 2024 | Apple will very likely still be Berkshire's largest common stock holding at the end of 2024, despite Berkshire having sold some shares. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 18 Apr 2024 | A 1GW data center will be built eventually, but not in 2025 (next year). Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Prediction | 28 Feb 2024 | Hassabis said he thought the next versions of these systems, over the next year to 18 months, might have some contextual understanding of the user's environment through a camera, phone or glasses. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 28 Feb 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Marc Andreessen | Prediction | 2 Sep 2023 | There will be Chinese AI systems that embody Communist ideology. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 8 Aug 2023 | In a year or two (from 2023), AI model consciousness might become a very real concern. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 6 Apr 2023 | AI alignment will not be solved within a few years. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 6 Apr 2023 | GPT-5 will not end the world, with more than 50% of Yudkowsky's probability on that outcome. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 20 Feb 2023 | Training GPT-4 will cost $100 million. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved true | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 3 Jan 2023 | China will respond strongly to US technological and economic containment rather than take it lightly. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 1 Jan 2023 | If US electric vehicle sales keep growing at 68% per year, electric cars would be 28% of new US car sales in 2025. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Steven Pinker | Prediction | 30 Dec 2022 | ChatGPT will not put Google Search out of business in the near term. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 30 Dec 2022 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 25 Dec 2022 | GPT-4 will definitely seem smarter than its predecessors, but its internal architecture will remain problematic. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | UK mortgage rates may double because of reckless fiscal policy and debt build-up. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 31 Aug 2022 | Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 30 Jun 2022 | Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House in the 2022 midterms, and the Senate is a toss-up. Nate Silver · Prediction · 30 Jun 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 30 Jun 2022 | If Republicans take control of the House in 2023, they are pretty likely to hold COVID panels or investigations. Nate Silver · Prediction · 30 Jun 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 9 Jun 2022 | Democrats could hold the Senate in the 2022 midterms if GOP candidates are subpar in a couple of key states or Democrats win the closest races. Nate Silver · Prediction · 9 Jun 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 9 Jun 2022 | Democrats holding the House in the 2022 midterms would require an unlikely change in the national environment. Nate Silver · Prediction · 9 Jun 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | GiveWell | Prediction | 6 Apr 2022 | GiveWell likely will not be able to share a full response to all contest entries, due to limited research capacity. GiveWell · Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla's energy business will grow in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Prediction | 2022 | Daniela Amodei said she hoped, and thought it likely, that in the next few years AI would see something closer to standard-setting organizations, industry groups or trade associations setting out what a safe model looks like or how to move systems towards being safer. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 2022 | Chipotle is on track to achieve management's goal of more than $3 million in average restaurant sales. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 29 Dec 2021 | The University of Austin will genuinely teach classic works. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 | Field building and careers |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 19 Aug 2021 | The Sponsor Warrants will likely be worthless if PSTH does not complete a high-quality transaction on favorable terms. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 19 Aug 2021 | PSTH will secure SPARC's approval, giving a path to mitigate the harm the litigation causes shareholders and warrant holders. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 11 Jun 2021 | The US could see a rise in COVID cases because of the Delta variant, as in the UK. Nate Silver · Prediction · 11 Jun 2021 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 9 Jul 2020 | There will be no level 5 autonomous cars on roads in 2020. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 9 Jul 2020 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Prediction | 30 Apr 2020 | In two years' time (by 2022) more work will be done in public or hybrid cloud than now. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 30 Apr 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Marc Andreessen | Prediction | 18 Apr 2020 | The essay "It's Time to Build" will be the target of criticism. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 18 Apr 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | People who suffer severe COVID-19 may have long-term health impacts that are not yet known. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | COVID-19 will cause at least a recession, likely something more severe. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 20 Sep 2019 | Marcus said he did not think machines would reach world-class scientific reasoning within the next five years (by 2024). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 20 Sep 2019 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 16 Aug 2019 | Economic conditions will take a turn for the worse over the next one to three years from August 2019. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 16 Aug 2019 | Dalio said he thought there was probably a 40 percent chance of a US recession in the next two years, before the next US election. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Prediction | 5 Jan 2019 | By 2025, net-gain nuclear fusion will be working at prototype scale. Sam Altman · Prediction · 5 Jan 2019 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 17 May 2018 | Absent a further policy change from Treasury and FHFA, the subject said he expected Freddie Mac to resume dividend payments to the Treasury in the third quarter of 2018. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 17 May 2018 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Apr 2018 | China may be moving toward using AI for pervasive, all-seeing control of its population. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 15 Feb 2018 | Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would remember and publicly grade these predictions sometime in 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 15 Feb 2018 | With 80% probability, by February 2023 the Paris Agreement would still be in effect, with most countries generally making a good-faith effort to comply. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 15 Feb 2018 | Through 2023, there will be no obvious sign that technological unemployment is happening on a large scale. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 | AI, the economy and work |
| Resolved true | Ørsted | Prediction | Feb 2018 | Ørsted expects to farm down 50% of Hornsea 1 either in H2 2018 or in 2019. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 1 Jan 2018 | Claims before 2023 to be the next big thing in AI beyond deep learning will not pan out. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 1 Jan 2018 | Two paying customers will not go on a loop around the Moon on a Falcon Heavy in the 4th quarter of 2018. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | Jan 2018 | Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that Robert Mueller would not indict Donald Trump during 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 | Other |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | Jan 2018 | Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Donald Trump would still be US president at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 | Other |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | Jan 2018 | Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that Reddit would not ban r/the_donald by the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 2018 | There will not be a 'Truckpocalypse' before 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 | AI, the economy and work |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 2018 | The European Union will not collapse by 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 | Other |
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 12 Sep 2017 | The Trump administration's anticipated tax and economic changes will probably be enacted in a watered-down version. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Marine Le Pen will not be elected President of France in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | A significant number of EMDrive skeptics will not become convinced it works during 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | There will be no revolt against the Chinese Communist Party of Tiananmen Square scale or greater in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2017 | Unless there are substantial unexpected negatives, US corporate margins will be up in 2017. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Prediction | 2017 | Agrees with Kellyanne Conway that Trump is a man of action who is just getting started. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2017 | Other |
| Resolved true | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | Tesla Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice 89 million miles, i.e. over 178 million miles. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | Refinement and validation of self-driving software will take much longer than installing the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | There will be no earthquake in the world killing more than 10,000 people in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | The subject gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would end 2016 higher than $500. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that Assad would remain President of Syria. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that ISIS would control less territory at the end of 2016 than it did in January 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Ukraine will neither break into all-out war nor get neatly resolved in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Republicans will keep control of the US Senate after the 2016 elections. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Libya would remain a mess. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2016 | He sees the biggest risk as an extended economic recovery, which he expects to last two more years, that might start to push up wages enough to count. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 17 Sep 2015 | Bonds will return about 2.25% a year over the next 10 years. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 17 Sep 2015 | The US/global economy will have an economic downturn at some point. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Prediction | 2015 | In the epidemic shown, which would spread throughout the world very quickly, over 30 million people die. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Prediction | 10 Jul 2014 | There will soon be more than 3 billion people with Internet-connected devices. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 10 Jul 2014 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Ørsted | Prediction | Feb 2014 | DONG Energy expects business performance EBITDA of DKK 15-17 billion in 2014. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2014 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Michael Burry | Prediction | 5 Apr 2011 | Burry said he expected the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term. Michael Burry · Prediction · 5 Apr 2011 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 23 Sep 2010 | The US economy will eventually get out of the recession, though not for a while. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 23 Sep 2010 | Buffett said he did not think the expiring tax cuts would end up being extended for no one, i.e. he expected some to be extended. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 | Economics and markets |
“If we are successful in securing SPARC’s approval, and I am confident that we will get it done, we will have a clear path to mitigate the harm that this litigation has and will continue to cause to PSTH shareholders and warrant holders.”
Bill Ackman, PSTH CEO, in investor letter 19 August 2021 Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Provides Update to Investors (Pershing Square Holdings)
PSTH will secure SPARC's approval, giving a path to mitigate the harm the litigation causes shareholders and warrant holders.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
'SPARC's approval' means the SEC declaring effective (or otherwise clearing) the registration of Pershing Square SPARC Holdings so that SPARC rights or warrants could be issued to PSTH shareholders and warrant holders. TRUE: the SEC approved or declared effective SPARC's registration, and SPARC rights were in fact distributed to PSTH's shareholders and warrant holders (current or former), giving them the planned avenue of compensation. MOSTLY TRUE: approval was obtained and rights were distributed, but only to part of the intended holders (for example shareholders but not warrant holders). MOSTLY FALSE: approval was obtained but the SPARC was never used to benefit PSTH holders (no distribution to them). FALSE: SEC approval was never obtained, or the SPARC plan was abandoned or blocked.
Evidence
- Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, Ltd. Announces Launch and SPAR Distribution Business Wire (issued by Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, Ltd.) · 29 September 2023 Own record
“Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, Ltd. (“SPARC”) today announced that the SEC has declared SPARC’s registration statement effective. SPARC will shortly be distributing special purpose acquisition rights (“SPARs”) at no cost to former securityholders of Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, Ltd. (“PSTH”).”
- EX-4.6 Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, Ltd. (SEC filing exhibit: Description of Securities) · 31 December 2023 Own record
“On September 30, 2023, we distributed our SPARs at no cost to the former holders of the Class A common stock of Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, Ltd. ("PSTH") and former holders of the distributable redeemable warrants of PSTH, based on ownership as of July 25, 2022,”
- Pershing Square SPARC Launch Raises Tax Questions - Akin Gump Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP · 24 January 2024
“distributed some 61 million subscription warrants after finally securing Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approval for its launch.”
- Cadwalader Guides Pershing Square SPARC Launch and SPAR Distribution Hogan Lovells Cadwalader · 3 October 2023 Own record
“Cadwalader represented Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, Ltd. (SPARC) in its successful launch following the SEC declaring SPARC’s registration statement effective, announced on September 29.”
Reasoning
An independent law-firm commentary (E3) reports that Pershing Square SPARC got SEC approval and distributed about 61 million subscription warrants. SPARC's own announcement (E1) says the SEC declared its registration statement effective. Its SEC filing exhibit (E2) records that on September 30, 2023, SPARs were distributed at no cost to former PSTH Class A shareholders and former PSTH distributable warrant holders. Approval was obtained and both groups of holders received rights, so the claim meets the TRUE criteria; the prediction had no deadline.
Cite this claim
Bill Ackman, “PSTH will secure SPARC's approval, giving a path to mitigate the harm the litigation causes shareholders and warrant holders.” (said 19 August 2021). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_c4e55d79c970, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c4e55d79c970
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.