Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

340 claims · page 2 of 4

340 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 The January 2023 rally may well not outlive January. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved true Steven Pinker Prediction 30 Dec 2022 ChatGPT will not put Google Search out of business in the near term. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 30 Dec 2022 Technology
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 will still be reckless and hard to control, making a significant number of stupid errors. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4's natural language output still won't be reliably usable as input to downstream programs such as databases or virtual assistants. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 will definitely seem smarter than its predecessors, but its internal architecture will remain problematic. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 will not be trustworthy and complete enough to give reliable medical advice. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 will be a very large, powerful system (a 'monster'). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 With GPT-4, fluent hallucinations will still be common and easily induced, escalating the risk of LLMs being used to create misinformation. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 may be better at faking term papers, but if it follows the same playbook as its predecessors, it still won't really understand the world, and its flaws will eventually show. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 will blow people's minds when released. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 Marcus suspected that GPT-4's release would follow a pattern of immense buzz, then scientific scrutiny, then recognition that many problems remain. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 If GPT-4 is architecturally essentially the same as GPT-3, it can be expected to be unable to construct internal models of how the world works and, in consequence, unable to understand things at an abstract level. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 AI alignment between human wants and machine behavior will remain a critical unsolved problem, with GPT-4 unable to reliably follow shared human values. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 will remain a pastiche generator and useful for brainstorming and first drafts, but not trustworthy general intelligence. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Resolved false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 6 Nov 2022 The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 6 Nov 2022 History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 6 Nov 2022 The coming US recession will not be short and shallow. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 Central banks, starting with the Bank of England, will wimp out on tightening, causing inflation to go above 2%. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 UK mortgage rates may double because of reckless fiscal policy and debt build-up. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved false Dario Amodei Prediction 13 Oct 2022 The situation where several companies can produce good reasoning models will rapidly cease as everyone moves further up the scaling curve. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 13 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 31 Aug 2022 Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 30 Jun 2022 Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House in the 2022 midterms, and the Senate is a toss-up. Nate Silver · Prediction · 30 Jun 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 30 Jun 2022 If Republicans take control of the House in 2023, they are pretty likely to hold COVID panels or investigations. Nate Silver · Prediction · 30 Jun 2022 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 9 Jun 2022 Democrats could hold the Senate in the 2022 midterms if GOP candidates are subpar in a couple of key states or Democrats win the closest races. Nate Silver · Prediction · 9 Jun 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 9 Jun 2022 Democrats holding the House in the 2022 midterms would require an unlikely change in the national environment. Nate Silver · Prediction · 9 Jun 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true GiveWell Prediction 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell likely will not be able to share a full response to all contest entries, due to limited research capacity. GiveWell · Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Musk said his personal guess was that "we" would achieve full self-driving in 2022, with a safety level significantly greater than the present. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 In 2022 supply chain will continue to be the fundamental limiter of output across all Tesla factories. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI compute, hardware and data
Mixed Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Batteries will probably not be the limiting factor in Cybertruck production. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla still expects to be partly or primarily chip-limited in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla's energy business will grow in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Musk said he would be shocked if Tesla did not achieve full self-driving safer than a human in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Ackman said he believed hotel demand was likely to sustainably normalize at or above 2019 levels at some point later in 2022. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Prediction 2022 She said she hoped, and thought, that in the next few years the AI industry would see something closer to standard-setting organizations, industry groups or trade associations setting out what a safe model looks like. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 2022 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Prediction 2022 Daniela Amodei said she hoped, and thought it likely, that in the next few years AI would see something closer to standard-setting organizations, industry groups or trade associations setting out what a safe model looks like or how to move systems towards being safer. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 2022 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Chipotle is on track to achieve management's goal of more than $3 million in average restaurant sales. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Prediction 29 Dec 2021 The University of Austin will attract a fair number of students. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 Field building and careers
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Prediction 29 Dec 2021 The University of Austin will genuinely court STEM majors and give them a rigorous education. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 Field building and careers
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Prediction 29 Dec 2021 The University of Austin will genuinely teach classic works. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 Field building and careers
Resolved false Gary Marcus Prediction 14 Dec 2021 Gary Marcus bet that hybrid (neurosymbolic) AI models would pull ahead in 2022. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Dec 2021 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Bill Ackman Prediction 19 Aug 2021 The Sponsor Warrants will likely be worthless if PSTH does not complete a high-quality transaction on favorable terms. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Bill Ackman Prediction 19 Aug 2021 PSTH will secure SPARC's approval, giving a path to mitigate the harm the litigation causes shareholders and warrant holders. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Nate Silver Prediction 29 Jun 2021 It seems very likely that people who received one dose of the J&J COVID vaccine would benefit from a Pfizer or Moderna booster. Nate Silver · Prediction · 29 Jun 2021 Biosecurity
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 11 Jun 2021 The US could see a rise in COVID cases because of the Delta variant, as in the UK. Nate Silver · Prediction · 11 Jun 2021 Biosecurity
Mostly false Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Mar 2021 By 2024, people in the US will have to use a VPN because of ISP-level internet filtering and censorship. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 AI policy and governance
Mixed Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Mar 2021 He said he feared that, if vaccines were rolled out and enough Americans took them, by 2023 or 2024 people would be spoiling for a fight with China as the one legitimated enemy. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 Other global risks
Mixed Bill Gates Prediction Feb 2021 New COVID-19 tests, treatments and vaccines will soon begin to bend the pandemic curve substantially. Bill Gates · Prediction · Feb 2021 Biosecurity
Resolved false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Tesla Semi will likely be the first vehicle to achieve full autonomy. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Musk said he was highly confident Tesla's cars would drive themselves with reliability in excess of a human in 2021. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 AI capabilities
Mixed Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Long-range trucking with batteries is feasible. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 Technology
Resolved false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Safe Level 5 full self-driving can be achieved using only the current Full Self-Driving computer version 1. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 AI capabilities
Mixed Bill Ackman Prediction 16 Nov 2020 Widespread Covid vaccinations that will end the pandemic in the US are only a few months away from November 2020. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 16 Nov 2020 Biosecurity
Mostly true Ray Dalio Prediction 25 Oct 2020 There will be a lot of US-China decoupling over the five years following October 2020. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 Economics and markets
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Prediction 9 Jul 2020 There will be no level 5 autonomous cars on roads in 2020. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 9 Jul 2020 Technology
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction May 2020 Within several years all vaccine and medication development could be done by combining AI with biotechnology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 Science and research methods
Resolved true Satya Nadella Prediction 30 Apr 2020 In two years' time (by 2022) more work will be done in public or hybrid cloud than now. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 30 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Satya Nadella Prediction 30 Apr 2020 Microsoft's fiscal Q4 2020 will show consistent execution on a large annuity base, with continued usage and consumption growth across its cloud offerings. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 30 Apr 2020 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Prediction 18 Apr 2020 The essay "It's Time to Build" will be the target of criticism. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 18 Apr 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 31 Mar 2020 Censoring anyone in this way, let alone a head of state, will push people towards censorship-resistant platforms. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 31 Mar 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mixed Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 30 Mar 2020 When US stimulus checks arrive, people will spend them on consumer staples, after which prices will rise. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 30 Mar 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 29 Mar 2020 The COVID-19 lockdown will not be the last lockdown. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 29 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Mostly true Nate Silver Prediction 28 Mar 2020 The coronavirus peak in the NYC metro area will probably come sooner than elsewhere in the US. Nate Silver · Prediction · 28 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 A very large number of people may need to be tested for COVID-19 because there may be more spreaders than assumed. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Mixed Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 Testing may need to become extremely routine, effectively mainstreaming genomics. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 The pandemic will force everybody to treat remote work as primary rather than auxiliary. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 People will lean harder into social networks and online games as proxies for offline socialization because of the pandemic. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 People who suffer severe COVID-19 may have long-term health impacts that are not yet known. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 The pandemic will be a gigantic boost for every diagnostic and medical imaging company in the world, with defense-budget-level spending. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 Health screening of travellers will move to real time, within a day or an hour before boarding a flight. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Resolved true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 COVID-19 will cause at least a recession, likely something more severe. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 2020 will establish a lasting new normal, as World War Two did for women in the workforce. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mixed Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 Srinivasan said he thought China would build a nationwide system that constantly sequences and tests its population, then quarantines and vaccinates areas where a virus is rising. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 Work-from-home tools such as home office chat will get really good as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Technology
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2020 By the end of 2020, thousands of corporate bankruptcies will arrive into a peak of already existing corporate debt. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2020 During the depressed earnings phase, market P/E ratios will be pulled down, giving a lower multiple of substantially lower earnings. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2020 It is nearly certain that a V-shaped economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis looks like a lost hope. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2020 U.S. unemployment will reach up to 20% for at least a moment. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nate Silver Prediction 25 Sep 2019 Nate Silver guessed that the public would see the contents of the Ukraine call transcript as very inappropriate conduct and would find the White House's quid pro quo spin unresponsive to their concerns. Nate Silver · Prediction · 25 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Nate Silver Prediction 23 Sep 2019 Nate Silver said he still tended not to think public opinion on impeaching Trump would move much, but that it was hard to know. Nate Silver · Prediction · 23 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 20 Sep 2019 Marcus said he did not think machines would reach world-class scientific reasoning within the next five years (by 2024). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 20 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Ray Dalio Prediction 16 Aug 2019 Greater interest rate cuts will occur as the world economy slows. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Prediction 16 Aug 2019 Economic conditions will take a turn for the worse over the next one to three years from August 2019. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Prediction 16 Aug 2019 Dalio said he thought there was probably a 40 percent chance of a US recession in the next two years, before the next US election. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Prediction 13 May 2019 The US-China trade war will likely hurt China more than the United States. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 13 May 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly true Sam Altman Prediction 5 Jan 2019 By 2025, AGI will feel within reach to many people in the AI industry. Sam Altman · Prediction · 5 Jan 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Sam Altman Prediction 5 Jan 2019 By 2025, net-gain nuclear fusion will be working at prototype scale. Sam Altman · Prediction · 5 Jan 2019 Technology
Mostly true Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 Usage of graph neural networks will increase for a wide variety of applications likely to violate the assumptions of current deep learning hardware. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 As DL is used for high-level cognitive tasks, memory modules will become commonplace and very large, requiring hardware support. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Mixed Nouriel Roubini Prediction 15 Oct 2018 Now that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have plummeted from 2017's valuations, the techno-utopian mystique of distributed-ledger technologies should be next. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 15 Oct 2018 Technology
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 13 Sep 2018 Unlike in 2008, governments will lack the policy tools to manage the next downturn around 2020. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 13 Sep 2018 AI policy and governance
Mixed Elon Musk Prediction 7 Sep 2018 Humans can definitely travel to the Moon and Mars. Elon Musk · Prediction · 7 Sep 2018 Technology
Resolved true Bill Ackman Prediction 17 May 2018 Absent a further policy change from Treasury and FHFA, the subject said he expected Freddie Mac to resume dividend payments to the Treasury in the third quarter of 2018. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Mixed Bill Ackman Prediction 17 May 2018 These factors should enable ADP to achieve at least about $6.25 of EPS in fiscal year 2020, nearly 25% above management's September 2017 guidance. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly false Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 Blockchain payment rails will structurally reduce financial fees over the coming years. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 China may be moving toward using AI for pervasive, all-seeing control of its population. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 AI policy and governance
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The culture wars will continue with both sides scoring own-goals, victory going to whichever side first gets its supporters to shut up. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide between formal institutions for the rich and informal gig economies for the poor. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
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Bill Ackman

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Prediction Their own work or organisation

“If we are successful in securing SPARC’s approval, and I am confident that we will get it done, we will have a clear path to mitigate the harm that this litigation has and will continue to cause to PSTH shareholders and warrant holders.”

Bill Ackman, PSTH CEO, in investor letter 19 August 2021 Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Provides Update to Investors (Pershing Square Holdings)

PSTH will secure SPARC's approval, giving a path to mitigate the harm the litigation causes shareholders and warrant holders.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

'SPARC's approval' means the SEC declaring effective (or otherwise clearing) the registration of Pershing Square SPARC Holdings so that SPARC rights or warrants could be issued to PSTH shareholders and warrant holders. TRUE: the SEC approved or declared effective SPARC's registration, and SPARC rights were in fact distributed to PSTH's shareholders and warrant holders (current or former), giving them the planned avenue of compensation. MOSTLY TRUE: approval was obtained and rights were distributed, but only to part of the intended holders (for example shareholders but not warrant holders). MOSTLY FALSE: approval was obtained but the SPARC was never used to benefit PSTH holders (no distribution to them). FALSE: SEC approval was never obtained, or the SPARC plan was abandoned or blocked.

Evidence

  1. Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, Ltd. Announces Launch and SPAR Distribution Business Wire (issued by Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, Ltd.) · 29 September 2023 Own record
    “Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, Ltd. (“SPARC”) today announced that the SEC has declared SPARC’s registration statement effective. SPARC will shortly be distributing special purpose acquisition rights (“SPARs”) at no cost to former securityholders of Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, Ltd. (“PSTH”).”
  2. EX-4.6 Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, Ltd. (SEC filing exhibit: Description of Securities) · 31 December 2023 Own record
    “On September 30, 2023, we distributed our SPARs at no cost to the former holders of the Class A common stock of Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, Ltd. ("PSTH") and former holders of the distributable redeemable warrants of PSTH, based on ownership as of July 25, 2022,”
  3. Pershing Square SPARC Launch Raises Tax Questions - Akin Gump Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP · 24 January 2024
    “distributed some 61 million subscription warrants after finally securing Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approval for its launch.”
  4. Cadwalader Guides Pershing Square SPARC Launch and SPAR Distribution Hogan Lovells Cadwalader · 3 October 2023 Own record
    “Cadwalader represented Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, Ltd. (SPARC) in its successful launch following the SEC declaring SPARC’s registration statement effective, announced on September 29.”

Reasoning

An independent law-firm commentary (E3) reports that Pershing Square SPARC got SEC approval and distributed about 61 million subscription warrants. SPARC's own announcement (E1) says the SEC declared its registration statement effective. Its SEC filing exhibit (E2) records that on September 30, 2023, SPARs were distributed at no cost to former PSTH Class A shareholders and former PSTH distributable warrant holders. Approval was obtained and both groups of holders received rights, so the claim meets the TRUE criteria; the prediction had no deadline.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “PSTH will secure SPARC's approval, giving a path to mitigate the harm the litigation causes shareholders and warrant holders.” (said 19 August 2021). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_c4e55d79c970, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c4e55d79c970

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.