Claims · Reliability API

28,548 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Person	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	30 Jan 2013	If he then came up with some particular intervention which he thought was higher priority, I’d ask about the specific case. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 30 Jan 2013
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	30 Jan 2013	Work on whatever your current priority is, after an hour of meta reasoning but not a year of meta reasoning. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 30 Jan 2013
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	30 Jan 2013	Real computers don’t work very much like the formalism, but Turing’s work was useful anyway. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 30 Jan 2013
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	30 Jan 2013	Nick Bostrom isn’t making this mistake, either. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 30 Jan 2013
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	30 Jan 2013	No, this issue of trying to have an AI write a similar AI seems like a fairly fundamental one, and the Löb Problem blocks it. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 30 Jan 2013
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	30 Jan 2013	But if you’re the person who always tries to go meta and only thinks meta because there might be some better thing, you’re not ever going… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 30 Jan 2013
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	30 Jan 2013	I’d start by having them read a description of a particular technical problem we’re working on, for example the “Löb Problem.” Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 30 Jan 2013
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	30 Jan 2013	The fact that we can’t figure out how to do these things — even given infinite computing power — is alarming. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 30 Jan 2013
Resolved true	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	30 Jan 2013	Paul Christiano is working on actual Friendly AI problems while also looking for other promising interventions. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 30 Jan 2013	Field building and careers
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	30 Jan 2013	Are you sure you wouldn’t be going back in time and telling Alan Turing to not invent Turing machines because who knows whether computers… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 30 Jan 2013
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	30 Jan 2013	I don’t have much objection to that. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 30 Jan 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	The reality is that the fair value of any tangible asset is its accurate replacement cost. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	Economists in general, I feel, are rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	This is the most barbaric double counting. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	Don't trust capitalism to have a heart; capitalism given half the chance is a real bastard that needs regulation. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	It's leaking, you’re far from land and the two big guys refuse to bail on principle. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	You know one thing about all those feathers: that at some uncertain time horizon, every single one of them will hit the ground. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	They did the same in the tobacco industry. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	Getting our act together means we have got to change the energy system above all. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	The more you can structure your business to be able to stay the course, and the more education you can give to the client, the better off… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	Amazing wipeouts create enormous value; that is how the system works. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	The investment industry is not adjusting for profit margins, which are the most provably mean reverting series in the whole of finance. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	That goes on quite a bit longer, but the faster we respond, the bigger effect it has for the economy, and the faster it pushes the price… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	The good news, in real life, is that eventually reality speaks. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	Sometimes, you do better keeping it really simple and almost antique. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	Correlation, which is so important in the way most of you build your portfolios, is a complete red herring to long-term investors. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	Everyone should support a global carbon tax or a U.S. carbon tax or an Australian carbon tax. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	I think it is just almost a non-starter, but I hope he disproves my thesis. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	With methane, we are potentially on the cusp of a couple of dreadful reinforcing cycles. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	In my opinion, this is the major inefficiency in the stock market. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	we are behaving so badly that a Martian would say that we deserve to be roasted. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	If profit margins do not mean revert, then capitalism is broken. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	Greenspan would not allow our hearts to be broken. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	It is growing so fast that even a slowing growth rate means more units on finite reserves. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	The real events are resource squeeze and climate change. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	He has been a bitter disappointment on this front. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	My view of economics, particularly in finance, is that we have spent our whole time arguing about models and assumptions, not real life and… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	In a world where I think productivity is 1.1% prior to a deduction for a resource squeeze of 0.4%, 0.2% is a big number. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	It is a very inefficient enterprise, but by far the biggest inefficiency is momentum. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	If you underperform for more than three years, you will be shot. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	That, ladies and gentlemen, is extrapolation. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	There is no listening going on, but there is plenty of talking. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	He talked a good game, and when he came in, he forgot about it. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	Bill McKibben is going around in a bus lobbying school kids to get colleges to divest oil, and it's a sad waste of terrific resources and a… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	I don't think it's in our gene pool. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	I'm a Brit and I'm extremely cheerful. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	You must never, ever be wrong on your own. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	who support all those formerly think tanks, now propaganda tanks, designed to do nothing but obfuscate actual scientific data Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	we are playing well far and away the most dangerous games that we have ever played as a species Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	His scientists, including John Holdren, just went missing in action, which was fairly tragic. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	Nothing we could find ever indicated that there was a new paradigm. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	He is a dangerous guy, who must be watched. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	They were chickens. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	I have spent 30 years being extremely irritated listening to the intellectual torturing of logic to explain that it is in fact a rational… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	The thing that really matters in life in the institutional business is protecting your job. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	We did not cheat; all we did was talk. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	Obama was a no-show. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	It is a great test of homo sapiens. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	They didn't even have the nerve to resign with dignity. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	2013	Making a forecast about the future is incredibly dangerous, full of career risk. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2013
Resolved true	Nassim Taleb	Factual	12 Dec 2012	Nassim Taleb spent most of his adult life as an option trader. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	tinkering needs to be convex; it is imperative. Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Resolved true	Nassim Taleb	Factual	12 Dec 2012	Nassim Taleb calls the mistake of applying artificial-lottery logic to real-world randomness the "ludic fallacy". Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012	Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	some results offer abnormally large benefits from discovery Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	And unlike an explicit financial option for which the buyer pays a fee to a seller, hence tend to trade in a way to prevent undue profits… Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	The more volatile the environment, the larger the bias. Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	functions with larger gains than losses are nonlinear-convex and resemble financial options. Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	In practice there is no premium for complexification; in academia there is. Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	By definition chance cannot lead to long term gains (it would no longer be chance); trial and error cannot be unconditionally effective Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	Optionality frees us from the straightjacket of direction, predictions, plans, and narratives. Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	This makes us live in the contradiction that we largely got here to where we are thanks to undirected chance, but we build research… Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	luck cannot lead to formal research policies; one cannot systematize, formalize, and program randomness. Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	A "1/N" strategy is almost always best with convex strategies (the dispersion property) Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	Critically we have the option, not the obligation to keep the result, which allows us to retain the upper bound and be unaffected by… Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Unresolvable	Nassim Taleb	Factual	12 Dec 2012	Lotteries are artificial, human-constructed randomness with a known upper bound on payoffs. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Nassim Taleb	Factual	12 Dec 2012	Top-down centralized decisions tend to fail. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	The driver is neither luck nor direction, but must be in the asymmetry (or convexity) of payoffs, a simple mathematical property that has… Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	The more convex the payoff function, expressed in difference between potential benefits and harm, the larger the bias. Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	A large exposure to a single trial has lower expected return than a portfolio of small trials. Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	The beneficial properties have to reside in the type of exposure, that is, the payoff function and not in the "luck" part Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Resolved true	Nassim Taleb	Factual	12 Dec 2012	Nassim Taleb says he gave the name "antifragile", for lack of a better one, to the class of phenomena that gain from disorder through a convexity bias. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012	Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	This last property is missed as humans have a propensity to hate uncertainty. Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	The convexity bias, unlike serendipity et al., can be defined, formalized, identified, even on the occasion measured scientifically, and… Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Unresolvable	Nassim Taleb	Factual	12 Dec 2012	Strategic planning has never borne fruit in empirical reality. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	Mathematically, five sequential one-year options are vastly more valuable than a single five-year option. Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Mostly true	Nassim Taleb	Factual	12 Dec 2012	Theory is born from practice more often than practice from theory, with technology more often preceding science. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	Something central, very central, is missing in historical accounts of scientific and technological discovery. Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	A coffee cup is fragile because it wants tranquility and a low volatility environment, the antifragile wants the opposite: high volatility… Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Resolved true	Nassim Taleb	Factual	12 Dec 2012	At least five millennia passed between the invention of the wheel and the innovation of putting wheels under suitcases. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012	Technology
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	Critically, convex payoffs benefit from uncertainty and disorder. Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Unresolvable	Nassim Taleb	Factual	12 Dec 2012	In research, about 1 in 1000 trials can account for 50% of total contributions, similar to company capitalization where 1 in 1000 companies often make up 50%. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	When you inject uncertainty and errors into airplane ride (the fragile or concave case) the result is worsened Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	1) Convexity is easier to attain than knowledge (in the technical jargon, the "long-gamma" property) Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Mostly false	Nassim Taleb	Factual	12 Dec 2012	Evidence from the performance of banks shows that in the real world betting against long shots does not pay. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	This "optionality" is what is behind the convexity of research outcomes. Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	Optionality works by negative information, reducing the space of what we do by knowledge of what does not work. Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	But it you inject uncertainty into a convex exposure such as some types of research, the result improves, since uncertainty increases the… Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Not checkable	Nassim Taleb	Not checkable	12 Dec 2012	Research has explosive payoffs, with unknown upper bound Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2012
Not researched	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	3 Dec 2012	There is a chronic and dangerous shortage of phosphorus. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 3 Dec 2012	Other global risks
Not yet due	Jeremy Grantham	Prediction	3 Dec 2012	China will go from 50% capital spending to 30%, if lucky, smoothly over 20 years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 3 Dec 2012	Economics and markets

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Jeremy Grantham

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“Nothing we could find ever indicated that there was a new paradigm.”

Jeremy Grantham 2013 Long-Term Investing: An Optimal Strategy (Grantham keynote address) (Columbia Center on Governance & Sustainability)

Nothing we could find ever indicated that there was a new paradigm.

Not checkable An opinion, value judgement or statement with nothing to check.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “Nothing we could find ever indicated that there was a new paradigm.” (said 2013). Verdict: not checkable. Reliability API, claim c_bd185936d5d2, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_bd185936d5d2

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