Claims

Factual · Other global risks

“Most of our pollution can't be exported because it's involved in the generation of power and home heating and so on.”

Steven Pinker, interviewee · 22 March 2018 · Steven Pinker Wants Enlightenment Now! (Reason)

Most of "our" pollution, as distinct from pollution in the developing world, cannot be exported because it is involved in power generation, home heating and similar activities.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2018-03-22. True: emissions data for developed countries (e.g. US/UK/EU) show that most (over 50%) of their domestic pollution or emissions come from activities that cannot be moved abroad, such as power generation, home heating, transport and similar domestic energy use, rather than from making traded goods, and studies of 'pollution offshoring' find that only a minority of developed-country pollution has been or could be exported. Mostly true: such non-exportable activities account for most of the pollution, but the share or the list of activities differs somewhat (e.g. transport rather than heating is the main source). Mixed: the evidence is split, e.g. it holds for some pollutants or measures but not others, or the share is near half. Mostly false: a substantial share of developed-country pollution (by consumption-based accounting) is embodied in imports or has been offshored, so the claim overstates a partial truth. False: evidence shows that most developed-country pollution comes from exportable manufacturing or has in fact been exported.

Evidence

1. Sources and emissions of air pollutants in Europe European Environment Agency (EEA) · 24 November 2022

   “The primary source of particulate matter, both PM10 and PM2.5, was energy consumption in the residential, commercial and institutional sector. It was responsible for 44% and 58% of emissions, respectively.”

2. EMISSIONS EMBEDDED IN GLOBAL TRADE Niskanen Center (Shuting Pomerleau) · June 2022

   “For example, in 2018, the share of the United States’ total production-based emissions for domestic consumption was 91 percent.”

3. What are the main sources of US greenhouse gas emissions? | USAFacts USAFacts · 19 January 2024

   “In 2022, most US greenhouse gas emissions came from three economic sectors: transportation (28.4%), electricity production (24.9%), and industry (22.9%).”

4. Have consumption-based CO₂ emissions in developed countries peaked? UCL Discovery (Wang, Yan, Gao, Liang, Mi, Liu; Energy Policy 184, 113894) · 4 January 2024

   “Domestic emissions in all 16 developed countries had peaked, most of which accounted for 40–70% of the total consumption-based emissions.”

Reasoning

E3 shows that in 2022 transportation (28.4%) and electricity production (24.9%) together made up more than half of US greenhouse-gas emissions, and E1 names residential, commercial and institutional energy use as the main source of particulate matter in Europe. E2 reports that in 2018, 91% of US production-based emissions served domestic consumption. Together these support the claim that most domestic emissions come from activities that can't be moved abroad. However, E4 finds that for most of 16 developed countries, domestic emissions were only 40–70% of consumption-based emissions, so a large share is embodied in imports, which matches the criteria's 'mostly false' description. Because the evidence points both ways depending on the accounting method, the verdict is mixed.

Cite this claim

Steven Pinker, “Most of "our" pollution, as distinct from pollution in the developing world, cannot be exported because it is involved in power generation, home heating and similar activities.” (said 22 March 2018). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_badaaa5e16b2, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_badaaa5e16b2