Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

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6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2008 The Scion Funds' portfolio of credit default swaps on subordinated tranches of subprime mortgage securitizations has been reduced to an insignificant size, with only three contracts remaining. Michael Burry · Factual · 2008 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 A mind accelerated a millionfold would accomplish a subjective year of thinking every 31 physical seconds. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Human psychology seems to follow the rule that adding an additional detail can make a story more plausible. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2008 Burry said he had recently found opportunity in a handful of severely battered South Korean securities, a Chinese media company and a global internet giant, and that such positions amounted to roughly one-third of the portfolio. Michael Burry · Factual · 2008 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 General intelligence is a between-species difference, a complex adaptation, and a human universal found in all known cultures. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky said he did not think it plausible that Homo sapiens would continue indefinitely without a mind arising that exceeds the current upper bound on intelligence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Human beings use heuristics that quickly give good approximate answers in many cases but also produce systematic errors called biases. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky suggested that if the Earth is destroyed, it will probably be by mistake rather than deliberately. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 Other global risks
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2008 If the Funds' remaining credit shorts fell to zero value, Scion Qualified Value Fund would lose about 19% of its value and Scion Value Fund about 15%. Michael Burry · Factual · 2008 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Human beings do not recursively self-improve in a strong sense. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 It is more likely that Friendly AI is solvable but no one will solve it in time than that it is humanly impossible. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 An Artificial Intelligence might increase in intelligence extremely fast. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Biases implicit in the availability heuristic affect people's estimates of risk. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky said he thinks Artificial Intelligence is the road we will end up taking into "that challenge", which the surrounding text describes as the way out of the high-mortality phase of the life cycle and probably the single most dangerous risk we face. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 When technology first becomes capable of uploading, it will have overwhelmingly more computing power and probably far better cognitive science than building an AI requires. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 As of 2008 there is no shield that can deflect a nuclear explosion. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Other global risks
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky said he feared regulatory agencies would not approve human experiments, in the context of augmenting human intelligence through biology. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 A superintelligent AI whose goal system operates in an unforeseen fashion may actively resist human attempts to correct it. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 It seems that people do not extrapolate from experienced small hazards to the possibility of large risks. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 The obvious experimental manipulations of heuristics-and-biases studies have already been tried, and the results were found to be robust. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Mostly true Michael Burry Prediction 2008 Less leverage and lower returns on assets are now likely for financial institutions. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2008 Economics and markets
Resolved true Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky doubted that a thousandfold increase in AI hardware would buy anything like a thousandfold increase in effective intelligence, while noting that such doubt is not reliable without an analytical calculation. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI compute, hardware and data
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2008 The Scion Funds are roughly one-fifth cash, held largely in foreign currencies. Michael Burry · Factual · 2008 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky said he thinks it will prove easier, in the end, to build a 747 from scratch than to scale up an existing bird or graft on jet engines, an analogy he used for building Artificial Intelligence rather than taking another road into the challenge of smarter-than-human intelligence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Own records only Michael Burry Prediction 2008 Burry said that, with only three such contracts remaining in force, he did not expect further meaningful impact on the Funds' portfolios from this sort of trade. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2008 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 With molecular nanotechnology, an AI could potentially rewrite the solar system unopposed. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 Other global risks
Own records only Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 When he first began thinking about these matters, Yudkowsky expected the largest benefits from Artificial Intelligence yet felt no anxiety about it. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Michael Burry Promise 2008 Scion Capital is closing its dedicated Asian investment funds and returning capital to investors in those funds. Michael Burry · Promise · 2008 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Michael Burry Prediction 2008 Burry said he imagined that shares of most of these financial companies would become very boring before they became attractive again. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2008 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Human uploading and upgrading will very probably not be the ground on which humanity first confronts smarter-than-human intelligence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 The bystander effect is usually explained as resulting from diffusion of responsibility and pluralistic ignorance. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2008 The Scion Funds established direct commodity exposure through futures contracts during a recent commodity price pullback. Michael Burry · Factual · 2008 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 An AI might make a huge jump in intelligence after reaching some threshold of criticality. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 The people who first invented and spread communism were idealists acting with good intentions. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 An Artificial Intelligence could rewrite its code from scratch and change the underlying dynamics of optimization. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky said he thinks it is possible for fallible humans to succeed at building Friendly AI, but only if intelligence ceases to be a sacred mystery to us. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 There will not necessarily be distant advance warning before AI is created, so it cannot be relied upon. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 In Yudkowsky's opinion at the time, which he said did not rest on a precise calculation using a precisely confirmed theory, sharp jumps in intelligence are possible and likely, and constitute the dominant probability. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 The human brain is not end-user-modifiable. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Most AI researchers will not want to make unFriendly AIs. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Generations of investigators tried and failed to understand stars, chemistry and biology, which acquired a reputation of being impossible for science. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Mixed Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 The Kahneman, Slovic and Tversky edited volume helped establish the heuristics and biases field and was written with outside academic readers in mind. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 If biomass yields double, the land needed for US biofuel falls to 25 million acres. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Khosla said he was convinced that green technologies can be made cheaper than oil, describing this as his goal while noting he may or may not be successful at it. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 The U.S. has fallen well behind Europe in recognizing climate change and its implications. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 Very few scientists dispute that cellulosic ethanol gives an 80 percent carbon reduction. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Wind power will never scale to more than 10, 15, maybe 20 percent of electricity. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 A good corn ethanol plant can achieve as much as a 40 or 50 percent reduction in carbon. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Biomass yields can increase as corn yields have, and biomass can be cultivated sustainably in a polyculture way. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 Utilities are currently forced to take the power the subject was discussing (power he said nobody needs at night), which he described as really just a tax. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 AI policy and governance
Mixed Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 Oil interests are spreading disinformation, seeding doubts and mounting campaigns against first-generation products like corn ethanol. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 Strong government signals in Europe have made a big difference in advancing renewables there. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 AI policy and governance
Mixed Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 US corn yields have increased sevenfold since 1920 due to technology and engineering. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Khosla said he believed that, once the new fuel technologies are proven, oil companies will be willing and massive participants in this area. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 If newer energy technologies are done poorly, there will be public backlash against them. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mixed Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 Oil interests are running massive PR campaigns against ethanol. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 If solar photovoltaics grew 10,000 percent, they would supply about 4 percent of worldwide electricity. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 Khosla said he thought oil companies at the time did not believe "this" was possible. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 Geothermal power works extremely well in certain regions. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 Khosla said he believed there had been relatively little controversy over cellulosic ethanol, and that most of the controversy had focused on corn ethanol. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 Cement is one of the biggest producers of greenhouse gases. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 Saudi Arabia, with a smaller population than California, gains or loses a trillion dollars in asset values each time the oil price moves by $4. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 The vast majority of scientists will say that these fuels give a 20 to 30 percent carbon reduction. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Pricing carbon and requiring carbon capture and sequestration would probably add about 2 cents per kilowatt hour to the cost of coal power, depending on the carbon price. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 Khosla said he believed a massive amount of PR money was being funded by various oil interests, including oil companies and the American Petroleum Institute. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved false Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Khosla said he believed 50 million acres of US land could supply all US biofuel needs. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Even if Germany switched completely to photovoltaics, climate change's trajectory will not change unless India and China also adopt them. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 There will be a mix of biofuels in the marketplace. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Ethanol will be produced in a way that has a materially positive energy balance and reduces petroleum consumption and greenhouse gases. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 He did not believe clean coal would win in every area, because clean coal technologies would be so expensive that many renewables would come in cheaper. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Over time more people will be willing to pay more for clean energy, a tipping point will be reached, and legislation will then force people to pay more. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 With carbon pricing and capture, coal power would cost between 8 and 10 cents per kilowatt hour. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 There are scientists who are not paid by anybody who believe climate change does not exist, though the speaker immediately added that "plenty" was a bit of a stretch. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Science and research methods
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Carbon capture and sequestration for coal plants will work technically. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 For the first 15 years solar photovoltaic cells were built, they took far more energy to produce than was ever got out of them in their lifetime. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 Hybrid cars cost 100 times as much as corn ethanol plants for the same percentage carbon reduction of about 20 percent. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Own records only Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 Khosla invests in all energy approaches he thinks might be viable. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Around 2057, the world will probably have moved to all electric cars. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 7 Jun 2007 For every person in the world who has access to this technology, five people do not. Bill Gates · Factual · 7 Jun 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Bill Gates Factual 7 Jun 2007 The market did not reward saving the lives of children in poor countries from preventable diseases, and governments did not subsidize it. Bill Gates · Factual · 7 Jun 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 7 Jun 2007 Interventions costing under a dollar could save lives but were not being delivered. Bill Gates · Factual · 7 Jun 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 7 Jun 2007 After being told to come back in a month, Bill Gates worked day and night on a software project that he said ended his college education and began his journey with Microsoft. Bill Gates · Factual · 7 Jun 2007 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Because no similar global event has occurred before, the stresses to the financial system when the bubble bursts are likely to be unexpected. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Forestry holdings are an example where the diversifying effect alone has dramatically changed pricing. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Institutional shift into expensive hedge fund vehicles may lower returns available to existing long-only managers with positive alpha. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Good or excellent economic fundamentals combined with tightening credit often result in a falling market. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Hedge fund money is leveraged several times and turns over far more frequently than traditional money. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Markets are likely to be in for a bumpy ride after April 2007. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 The most extreme relative overpricing in coming years should be at the intersection of high-risk and exotic diversification drivers. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 The bursting of the bubble will hit all countries and all assets, with the probable exception of high grade bonds. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 As of April 2007, real estate, stocks and bonds all measure expensive against their own histories and against replacement cost where calculable. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Global profit margins, currently far above average, will come down. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Private equity grew even faster than hedge funds over the three years before April 2007. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 The heart of the current bubble is probably private equity. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 In 10 years the current bubble may well be described as the private equity bubble, as 2000 is thought of as the internet bubble. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Own records only Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Grantham says GMO has not found any case where excellent fundamentals and generous cheap liquidity coexisted without producing a bubble. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 For slow-moving managers who do not exit quickly by unloading their company, default will probably be common. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 In May 2006 emerging markets declined by 25% in three weeks, during what was fundamentally their best year in history. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 When the bubble bursts, the Fed and overseas equivalents will move to contain the economic damage, as the Fed did after the 2000 break. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
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Vinod Khosla

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Prediction Technology

“Not only that, even if Germany switched over completely to photovoltaics, unless India and China adopted them, we are not going to see a change in the trajectory of climate change.”

Vinod Khosla, venture capitalist, interviewee 28 September 2007 Interviews - Vinod Khosla (Frontline Heat) (PBS Frontline)

Even if Germany switched completely to photovoltaics, climate change's trajectory will not change unless India and China also adopt them.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

This is a counterfactual about relative emissions. Germany never switched completely to PV, so judge the reasoning against emissions data from around 2007 and the trend since. True: authoritative data (IEA, Global Carbon Project, UNFCCC inventories) show Germany's power-sector emissions are a small share of global emissions (a few percent or less). They must also show that global emissions growth was and is driven mostly by China and India (with other developing economies), so that removing Germany's power emissions without China and India acting would not materially bend the global emissions or warming trajectory. Mostly true: the core point holds, but the evidence shows China and India are not the only decisive emitters (for example, the US or other developing countries matter about as much), so naming only these two overstates their role. Mixed: credible analyses are genuinely split on whether Germany's switch alone would change the trajectory. Mostly false: Germany's switch alone would have a modest but measurable effect on the global trajectory, or adoption by China and India is shown not to be necessary for a change. False: evidence shows Germany switching completely to PV would by itself substantially change the global emissions or warming trajectory.

Evidence

  1. Key Targets 2025 Global Carbon Project (Global Carbon Budget) · 1 January 2026
    “The average growth in global fossil CO₂ emissions peaked at around 3 % per year during the 2000s, driven by the rapid growth in emissions in China.”
  2. Analysis: Global CO2 emissions will reach new high in 2024 despite slower growth - Carbon Brief Carbon Brief · 13 November 2024
    “For this year, China represents 32% of global CO2 emissions. Their emissions in 2024 are projected to increase by a relatively small 0.2% (with an uncertainty range of -1.6% to +2%), driven by a small rise in emissions from coal (0.3%) and a large rise in natural gas emissions (8%).”
  3. Analysis: Global CO2 emissions will reach new high in 2024 despite slower growth - Carbon Brief Carbon Brief · 13 November 2024
    “The US represents 13% of global emissions this year – though is responsible for a much larger portion of historical emissions and associated atmospheric accumulation of CO2.”
  4. CO2 Emissions – Global Energy Review 2025 – Analysis - IEA International Energy Agency · 19 October 2026
    “CO2 emissions grew in emerging market and developing economies and international aviation and marine bunkers, outweighing reductions from advanced economies led by the European Union, Japan and the United States.”
  5. Analysis: Global CO2 emissions will reach new high in 2024 despite slower growth - Carbon Brief Carbon Brief · 13 November 2024
    “For this year, China represents 32% of global CO2 emissions. Their emissions in 2024 are projected to increase by a relatively small 0.2% (with an uncertainty range of -1.6% to +2%), driven by a small rise in emissions from coal (0.3%) and a large rise in natural gas emissions (8%).”
  6. Analysis: Global CO2 emissions will reach new high in 2024 despite slower growth - Carbon Brief Carbon Brief · 13 November 2024
    “India represents 8% of global emissions. In 2024, Indian emissions are projected to increase by 4.6% (with a range from 3.0% to 6.1%), with a 4.5% increase in emissions from coal”
  7. Analysis: Global CO2 emissions will reach new high in 2024 despite slower growth - Carbon Brief Carbon Brief · 13 November 2024
    “The rest of the world (excluding aviation) represents 38% of global emissions. Emissions are expected to grow by 1.1% in 2024 (ranging from -1.0% to +3.3%), with increases in emissions from coal (0.5%), oil (0.5%), natural gas (2.2%) and cement (2%).”
  8. Analysis: Global CO2 emissions will reach new high in 2024 despite slower growth - Carbon Brief Carbon Brief · 13 November 2024
    “The EU represents 7% of global emissions. EU emissions are expected to decrease by 3.8% in 2024, driven by a 15.8% decline in coal emissions, a 1.3% decline in natural gas emissions, and a 3.5% decline in cement emissions.”
  9. GHG emissions of all world countries European Commission, Joint Research Centre (EDGAR) · 30 June 2024
    “China, the United States, India, the EU27, Russia and Brazil were the world’s largest GHG emitters in 2023. Together they account for 49.8% of global population, 63.2% of global gross domestic product, 64.2% of global fossil fuel consumption and 62.7% of global GHG emissions.”
  10. GHG emissions of all world countries European Commission, Joint Research Centre (EDGAR) · 30 June 2024
    “With only two exceptions, 2009 (global financial crisis) and 2020 (COVID-19), global GHG emissions have grown steadily since the beginning of the 21st century, mainly due to the increase in fossil CO2 emissions by China, India, and other emerging economies.”
  11. 2022 Global Carbon Project · 11 November 2022
    “China 31%, United States 14%, EU27 8%, India 7%, Russia 5%, and Japan 3%”
  12. The Global Carbon Project (GCP) releases the Global Carbon Budget 2025 National Institute for Environmental Studies (Japan), reporting Global Carbon Project · 13 November 2025
    “Emissions in China and India are projected to grow much less in 2025 compared to their growth over the past decade (2015-2024), while emissions in the USA and European Union are also projected to grow this year, partly due to weather conditions.”

Reasoning

The evidence supports the core point. Growth in global fossil CO2 emissions since the 2000s was driven mainly by China, India and other emerging economies (E1, E10), and emerging-economy growth has outweighed cuts in advanced economies (E4). The whole EU accounts for only about 7–8% of global emissions (E8, E11), so Germany's power sector, as one part of that, is at most a small share. However, no source gives a Germany-specific figure. The US (13–14%) and the rest of the world taken together (38%) also account for substantial shares of global emissions (E3, E7, E9, E11), and E10 attributes growth to other emerging economies as well as China and India, so naming only China and India somewhat overstates their role.

Cite this claim

Vinod Khosla, “Even if Germany switched completely to photovoltaics, climate change's trajectory will not change unless India and China also adopt them.” (said 28 September 2007). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_b8dc2bd4dbac, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b8dc2bd4dbac

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.