Claims

Factual · AI timelines and forecasting

“Adams has lead on initial preference in 13 consecutive polls and the evidence on who benefits from ranked choice voting is all over the place.”

Nate Silver, writing on X · 21 June 2021 · Post by @NateSilver538 on X, 2021-06-21 (X)

Eric Adams has led on initial preference in 13 consecutive polls of the NYC mayoral primary.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

What would count as true or false

Count consecutive publicly released polls of the 2021 NYC Democratic mayoral primary, working backward from the most recent poll released by 2021-06-21. The measure is first-choice (initial preference) support, in polls ordered by release or field date. TRUE: Adams led (alone, or tied for first if poll lists treat ties as leads) in at least 13 consecutive polls ending with the latest one. MOSTLY TRUE: the unbroken streak was 11 or 12 polls, or the count of 13 depends on reasonable choices about which polls to include (e.g. internal or partisan polls). MOSTLY FALSE: Adams led the most recent polls, but the unbroken streak was clearly shorter (10 or fewer). FALSE: Adams did not lead first-choice support in the most recent polls before 2021-06-21.

Evidence

1. Adams Holds 7-Point Lead on Garcia, Would Win in 12th Round of Ranked Votes: WNBC Poll NBC New York · 14 June 2021

   “Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams holds a seven-point lead over former sanitation boss Kathryn Garcia in the New York City mayoral primary”

2. NYC Mayor 2021: Adams Stays Ahead but Rank Choice Voting Closes Gap for Wiley and Garcia - Emerson Polling Emerson College Polling · 17 June 2021

   “The final PIX11/NewsNation/Emerson College poll of the New York City Democratic mayoral primary finds Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams with 23% of the vote holding a five-point lead over the rest of the field.”

3. Adams, Garcia make gains in race for NYC mayor Ipsos · 11 June 2021

   “Eric Adams has overtaken Andrew Yang as the top vote-getter, but still remains far from the needed 50% +1 majority”

4. 2021 New York City Democratic mayoral primary - Wikipedia Wikipedia · 29 June 2021

   “Goldenberg, Sally (May 5, 2021). "Yang falls behind Adams for first time in New York mayor's race poll". Politico PRO.”

5. 2021 New York City Democratic mayoral primary - Wikipedia Wikipedia

   “| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[A] | Margin of error | Eric Adams | Shaun Donovan | Kathryn Garcia | Raymond McGuire | Dianne Morales | Scott Stringer | Maya Wiley | Andrew Yang | Others | Undecided | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Data for Progress (D) | Jun 18–20, 2021 | 1,354 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 26% | 3% | 18% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 21% | 12% | 2% | 6% |”

6. 2021 New York City Democratic mayoral primary - Wikipedia Wikipedia

   “Goldenberg, Sally (May 5, 2021). "Yang falls behind Adams for first time in New York mayor's race poll". Politico PRO.”

7. Template:Opinion polling for the 2021 New York City mayoral election/Democratic primary - Wikipedia Wikipedia

   “Emerson College[F] | May 23–24, 2021 | 570 (LV) | ± 4.1% | BA[B] | 20% | 5% | 21% | 2% | 7% | 10% | 9% | 16% | 2% Foldenauer: 1% Prince: 1% Chang: 0% Taylor: 0% Wright: 0% | 9%”

8. DFP’s Final NYC Polling Data for Progress · 21 June 2021

   “Eric Adams leads the field as voters’ first choice with 26 percent of the vote, followed by Maya Wiley with 21 percent”

9. NYC Democratic Primary for Mayor Marist Poll (Marist College) · 14 June 2021

   “According to this WNBC/Telemundo 47/POLITICO/Marist Poll, Eric Adams (24%) leads the field of candidates among New York City likely Democratic primary voters in their first-choice selection.”

10. Exclusive Data for Progress poll: Wiley in second behind Adams City & State · 15 June 2021

    “The poll shared exclusively with City & State shows Adams in first place, as 26% of likely Democratic primary voters’ top choice, Maya Wiley, former counsel to Mayor Bill de Blasio, in second, with 20%”

Reasoning

Several independent polls released in June 2021 show Adams leading on first choice: Ipsos (E3), Marist/WNBC (E1, E9), Data for Progress (E10, E8, E5) and Emerson (E2). So Adams clearly led the most recent polls before 2021-06-21. An excerpt from a polling table row for the Emerson poll of May 23–24, 2021 lists figures including 20% and 21%, but the excerpt does not label its columns, so it cannot confirm whether Garcia led Adams on first choice in that poll (E7). The evidence does not list all the polls released between late May and June 20, so it cannot show whether the unbroken streak reached 13 polls or fell short.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Eric Adams has led on initial preference in 13 consecutive polls of the NYC mayoral primary.” (said 21 June 2021). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_b363a3acf3df, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b363a3acf3df