6,750 claims · page 8 of 68
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 4 Mar 2026 | AI and tech companies and the US government will become increasingly intertwined, with neither checking the other. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 4 Mar 2026 | There will be many more fake jobs in the economy in future. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 4 Mar 2026 | US healthcare spending will eventually reach 30% of GDP or higher. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 4 Mar 2026 | AI decision-making will take hold whether or not people accept it, happening by trick if they do not. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 4 Mar 2026 | Labor of farmworkers, assembly line workers, retail workers and accountants will become free in a competitive economy, leading to declining prices. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 4 Mar 2026 | The human body cannot survive very well on other planets, other moons, or in outer space. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 4 Mar 2026 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 4 Mar 2026 | The nonprofit sector will have fake jobs for a very long time to come, and probably many more of them. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 4 Mar 2026 | Wealth will not be held only by a small group; there will be a lot of wealth for everyone, though the small group will be much wealthier. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 4 Mar 2026 | The supply of people wanting to immigrate to the US will dry up, due to lower birth rates elsewhere and improving source countries. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 | Other |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 4 Mar 2026 | Most Americans outside border areas do not feel they are losing their country, even if they think immigration is too high. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 4 Mar 2026 | Other |
| Mostly false | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 4 Mar 2026 | The World Bank seems weaker in relative terms, more displaced by private capital markets. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 4 Mar 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 4 Mar 2026 | India and Africa would probably be the next waves. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 4 Mar 2026 | Because of AI, people will not even need an engineering degree, except for those whose passion is learning. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 4 Mar 2026 | Cowen said he was worried a bit about the inverted population pyramid, but thinks AI will provide enough of a productivity boost that it "won't bankrupt us." Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 4 Mar 2026 | It is unlikely that a 5-year-old today will need to look for a job as an adult. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Mixed | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 4 Mar 2026 | Hungary's birth subsidies boosted its birth rate for a while, before it fell back. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 4 Mar 2026 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 4 Mar 2026 | Things will be pushed through for somewhat myopic reasons, such as the need to outpace China (which might even be true), and that will be the selling point. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 4 Mar 2026 | AIs will build their own institutions rather than a new UN or Bretton Woods. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 4 Mar 2026 | Hungary spent up to 5% of its GDP on birth subsidies. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 4 Mar 2026 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 4 Mar 2026 | The US will keep increasing its healthcare spending. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 4 Mar 2026 | The US will remain a nation of immigrants. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 | Other |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 4 Mar 2026 | Tyler Cowen held a literary Conversations with Tyler episode with Henry Oliver, published by 2026-03-04. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 4 Mar 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 4 Mar 2026 | Cowen said he can readily imagine that within 50 years most diseases will have been beaten back and everyone will die of old age or accidents. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 4 Mar 2026 | Future conflicts will be more like World War One than World War Two. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 4 Mar 2026 | In programming, AI will win out and do most of the work, with humans possibly working alongside it. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Michael Burry | Factual | 3 Mar 2026 | As of March 2026, Michael Burry had not directly tackled the overvaluation of the market itself in his writing. Michael Burry · Factual · 3 Mar 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 28 Feb 2026 | To Anthropic's knowledge, no one in the field has run into the limits of its two usage exceptions. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 28 Feb 2026 | Anthropic has been the most forward-leaning of all AI companies in working with the U.S. government and military. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Factual | 28 Feb 2026 | A supply chain risk designation has never before been applied to an American company. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 28 Feb 2026 | As of the interview, Anthropic had received only a tweet and no formal supply chain designation or government action. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Factual | 28 Feb 2026 | Anthropic was the first AI company to put its models on the classified cloud. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 28 Feb 2026 | The amount of computation going into AI models doubles every four months. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2026 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 28 Feb 2026 | Anthropic will be fine, and the impact of the supply chain risk designation on it will be fairly small. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 28 Feb 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Dario Amodei | Promise | 28 Feb 2026 | If Anthropic receives formal government action on the designation, it will review it and challenge it in court. Dario Amodei · Promise · 28 Feb 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 28 Feb 2026 | It is not illegal for the government to buy data collected by private firms and analyze it in mass with AI. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 28 Feb 2026 | Anthropic has received communications from the Pentagon but none that satisfy its concerns. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 28 Feb 2026 | Anthropic was threatened with a supply chain designation and Defense Production Act action by the government, and publicly disagreed in response. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 28 Feb 2026 | Dario Amodei said he told the president that he agreed with many aspects of what the president is doing. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 28 Feb 2026 | The whole timeline of the dispute was driven by the Department of War, not Anthropic. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 28 Feb 2026 | To Anthropic's knowledge, the supply chain risk designation had never previously been applied to an American company, only to adversary-linked firms such as Kaspersky Labs. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Promise | 28 Feb 2026 | If no deal is reached, Anthropic will off-board from military use smoothly so warfighters continue to be supported. Dario Amodei · Promise · 28 Feb 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Mixed | Michael Burry | Factual | 27 Feb 2026 | Nvidia is investing $30 billion in OpenAI, and OpenAI is to spend 20+ billion on Nvidia chips. Michael Burry · Factual · 27 Feb 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Michael Burry | Factual | 26 Feb 2026 | All of Hong Kong's massive tech stocks (Alibaba, JD, PDD, Baidu, Trip.com) became massive after 2007. Michael Burry · Factual · 26 Feb 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Jensen Huang | Factual | 25 Feb 2026 | NVIDIA's customers are racing to invest in AI compute for AI factories. Jensen Huang · Factual · 25 Feb 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Factual | 25 Feb 2026 | NVIDIA's H20 charges/(releases), net, were insignificant in both Q3 and Q4 of fiscal 2026. Jensen Huang · Factual · 25 Feb 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Jensen Huang | Factual | 25 Feb 2026 | Enterprise adoption of AI agents is growing very rapidly. Jensen Huang · Factual · 25 Feb 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 25 Feb 2026 | NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform will extend NVIDIA's inference leadership further beyond Grace Blackwell. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 25 Feb 2026 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved true | Jensen Huang | Factual | 25 Feb 2026 | Jensen Huang said in February 2026 that NVIDIA's Grace Blackwell with NVLink is "the king of inference today," delivering "an order-of-magnitude lower cost per token," without stating what that cost is compared with. Jensen Huang · Factual · 25 Feb 2026 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Delivered on time | Jensen Huang | Promise | 25 Feb 2026 | Beginning in Q1 fiscal 2027, NVIDIA will include stock-based compensation expense in its non-GAAP financial measures. Jensen Huang · Promise · 25 Feb 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Jensen Huang | Factual | 25 Feb 2026 | NVIDIA's H20 charges/(releases), net, were $4.5 billion in Q1 fiscal 2026 and ($180 million) in Q2 fiscal 2026. Jensen Huang · Factual · 25 Feb 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Jensen Huang | Guidance | 25 Feb 2026 | NVIDIA expects stock-based compensation in Q1 fiscal 2027 to have a 0.1% impact on non-GAAP gross margin and add $1.9 billion to non-GAAP operating expenses. Jensen Huang · Guidance · 25 Feb 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Jensen Huang | Factual | 25 Feb 2026 | The tax expense included in the table represents the impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Jensen Huang · Factual · 25 Feb 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Michael Burry | Factual | 22 Feb 2026 | RCA stock fell about 98% peak to trough in the early 1930s, while radio's growth continued for many more decades. Michael Burry · Factual · 22 Feb 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 22 Feb 2026 | Tyler Cowen recorded a podcast with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer, mostly on geopolitics, with a transcript available. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 22 Feb 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Feb 2026 | Tyler Cowen appeared on the podcast of Rasheed Griffith and Diego Sanchez de la Cruz, discussing Latin America and Spain. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Feb 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Feb 2026 | Tyler Cowen held a Conversations with Tyler episode with Joe Studwell, published by 2026-02-18. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Feb 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Factual | 16 Feb 2026 | Andhra Pradesh's growth is being accelerated through AI, technology and innovations across health, agriculture and education. Bill Gates · Factual · 16 Feb 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 16 Feb 2026 | AI systems are rapidly nearing a point where they can outperform humans in most economically valuable tasks. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 16 Feb 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Michael Burry | Factual | 12 Feb 2026 | Palantir had lost $3.96 billion in its history as of June 30, 2020, according to its IPO filing. Michael Burry · Factual · 12 Feb 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Michael Burry | Factual | 12 Feb 2026 | As Palantir prepared to go public in August 2020, its board awarded Alex Karp $1.1 billion worth of stock options. Michael Burry · Factual · 12 Feb 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 7 Feb 2026 | A lot of current AI models are very good at STEM. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 7 Feb 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Own records only | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 7 Feb 2026 | When hiring today, Anthropic looks for people who are great communicators with excellent EQ and people skills, and who are kind, compassionate and curious and want to help other people. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 7 Feb 2026 | Field building and careers |
| Unresolvable | Michael Burry | Prediction | 5 Feb 2026 | If GameStop deploys a large amount of capital near a market bottom, it will do far better than deploying capital in expensive markets. Michael Burry · Prediction · 5 Feb 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Michael Burry | Factual | 5 Feb 2026 | Alphabet changed its risk factor and useful life methodology language to include "historical asset performance" and "expected technology advancements." Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Feb 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 4 Feb 2026 | Tyler Cowen held a Conversations with Tyler episode with Andrew Ross Sorkin, published by 2026-02-04. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 4 Feb 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Michael Burry | Factual | 3 Feb 2026 | Fistula Foundation is rated 100% by Charity Navigator and A grade by Charity Watch. Michael Burry · Factual · 3 Feb 2026 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Jan 2026 | AI is going to enable a lot of new experiences. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 28 Jan 2026 | Adding cars to Tesla's autonomous fleet could let many customers earn more than their lease cost to Tesla. Elon Musk · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 28 Jan 2026 | Microsoft has been building its own silicon in various forms for a long time. Satya Nadella · Factual · 28 Jan 2026 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Promise | 28 Jan 2026 | Tesla will use AI5 chips in its data centers. Elon Musk · Promise · 28 Jan 2026 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 28 Jan 2026 | Without building the Tesla TerraFab, Tesla will be limited by supplier output of chips. Elon Musk · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Not yet due | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Jan 2026 | The models that Zuckerberg's company is launching, starting with the first set and continuing over the year, will get a lot better. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 28 Jan 2026 | Over 1,500 customers have used both Anthropic and OpenAI models on Microsoft Foundry. Satya Nadella · Factual · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Jan 2026 | Many different types of interactive and immersive content will become possible. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 28 Jan 2026 | Musk said he is confident that Tesla will get to a production rate of one million Optimus 3 units a year in Fremont. Elon Musk · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Elon Musk | Factual | 28 Jan 2026 | CyberCab's whole design was to optimize the fully considered cost per mile of autonomous driving. Elon Musk · Factual · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 28 Jan 2026 | Autonomous vehicles will likely be used about five times as much as a typical privately driven car. Elon Musk · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Jan 2026 | Meta's new non-ad businesses, even if they scale quickly, will take time to become meaningful relative to the ads business. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Factual | 28 Jan 2026 | Musk said he thinks Tesla's AI is more than an order of magnitude better in memory efficiency than other models. Elon Musk · Factual · 28 Jan 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Not yet due | Satya Nadella | Prediction | 28 Jan 2026 | Over 250 customers are on track to process over one trillion tokens on Foundry this year. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 28 Jan 2026 | Grok will be very helpful in maximizing the efficiency of managing a large autonomous fleet. Elon Musk · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Jan 2026 | Meta is already seeing optimizations of its recommendation systems as it incorporates AI research advances. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Jan 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 28 Jan 2026 | Over 80% of the Fortune 500 have active agents built using Microsoft's low-code/no-code tools (Copilot Studio and Agent Builder). Satya Nadella · Factual · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 28 Jan 2026 | Tesla will be ahead in real-world intelligence and electromechanical dexterity, especially hand design, in humanoid robots. Elon Musk · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 | Technology |
| Delivered on time | Elon Musk | Promise | 28 Jan 2026 | Tesla expects to start CyberCab production in April 2026. Elon Musk · Promise · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 28 Jan 2026 | Musk said he thinks that, with the growth of AI and robotics, the world is most likely headed to a future of universal high income. Elon Musk · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due | Elon Musk | Prediction | 28 Jan 2026 | Beyond roughly three years, Tesla will be limited by chip supplier output. Elon Musk · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 28 Jan 2026 | In the future the vast majority of miles traveled will be autonomous. Elon Musk · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Jan 2026 | Zuckerberg guessed that frontier AI will not always be available to everyone through an API, for many reasons, some competitive and some safety-oriented. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 28 Jan 2026 | Tesla hopes to debut the next-generation Roadster in April 2026. Elon Musk · Promise · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Jan 2026 | Zuckerberg said he thinks the numbers mean that, for the next couple of years, ads will be by far the important driver of growth in Meta's business. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Elon Musk | Promise | 28 Jan 2026 | Musk said "we" expect fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United States by the end of 2026, pending regulatory approval. Elon Musk · Promise · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Jan 2026 | Video will remain for a long time and continue growing. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Factual | 28 Jan 2026 | Musk said he thinks Tesla is the only company that has all three of what he called the three hardest problems for humanoid robots. Elon Musk · Factual · 28 Jan 2026 | Technology |
| Not yet due | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Jan 2026 | Zuckerberg said he thinks 2026 will be the year AI starts to dramatically change the way Meta works. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 28 Jan 2026 | Microsoft introduced Agent 365 in the quarter ended December 2025, letting organizations extend governance, identity, security and management to agents. Satya Nadella · Factual · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Elon Musk | Factual | 28 Jan 2026 | Musk has updated Tesla's mission to "amazing abundance". Elon Musk · Factual · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Satya Nadella | Factual | 28 Jan 2026 | Microsoft 365 Copilot had its biggest quarter-over-quarter improvement in response quality to date. Satya Nadella · Factual · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 28 Jan 2026 | Zuckerberg said he expects the AI wave to accelerate further on several fronts in 2026. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 28 Jan 2026 | By far the biggest competition for humanoid robots will come from China. Elon Musk · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 | Economics and markets |
“The A’s will build their own institutions.”
Tyler Cowen, interviewee 4 March 2026 Forecast 2050 - Tyler Cowen Transcript (Finn Murphy Substack)
AIs will build their own institutions rather than a new UN or Bretton Woods.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Reasoning
Open-ended speculative prediction with no horizon.
Cite this claim
Tyler Cowen, “AIs will build their own institutions rather than a new UN or Bretton Woods.” (said 4 March 2026). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_b2174da2ad6e, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b2174da2ad6e
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.