Claims

Factual · Biosecurity

“@lymanstoneky has a compelling argument that it's actually due to data incompleteness for the last two weeks.”

Balaji Srinivasan, author of X post · 30 March 2020 · Post by @balajis on X, 2020-03-30 (X)

The subject said that @lymanstoneky has a compelling argument that what the graph shows is actually due to incomplete data for the last two weeks, because the historical figures are not final.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

What would count as true or false

The proposition concerns what the subject said, so it is judged on whether the statement was made. True: an archived tweet or post by Balaji Srinivasan from on or about 30 March 2020 says that @lymanstoneky has a compelling argument that the pattern in a graph is due to incomplete data for the last two weeks, with the historical figures not yet final. Mostly true: such a post exists, with small wording or date differences, or with the 'not final' reasoning only implied. Mixed: he cited @lymanstoneky on that data issue but without endorsing the argument, or about a different time window. Mostly false: he referenced @lymanstoneky on that topic but did not attribute the pattern to data incompleteness. False: the archived posts show no such statement, or a statement rejecting that argument.

Evidence

1. Why the coronavirus may be killing more Americans than the government data says Vox · 29 April 2020

   ““Revisions AAAAALLLLLWAAAAAAAYS go up,” Lyman Stone, an economist and adjunct fellow with the American Enterprise Institute who has studied mortality rates, told me over email.”

Reasoning

The claim is about whether Balaji Srinivasan posted a statement on or about 30 March 2020 endorsing @lymanstoneky's argument on data incompleteness. The only evidence, E1, is an April 2020 Vox article quoting Lyman Stone on data revisions. It does not mention Srinivasan and does not show his post. Without an archived copy of the post, the evidence cannot show whether he made the statement.

Cite this claim

Balaji Srinivasan, “The subject said that @lymanstoneky has a compelling argument that what the graph shows is actually due to incomplete data for the last two weeks, because the historical figures are not final.” (said 30 March 2020). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_b1d705e8b6db, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b1d705e8b6db