Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

28,548 claims · page 262 of 286

28,548 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mixed Michael Burry Prediction 2008 Burry said he imagined that shares of most of these financial companies would become very boring before they became attractive again. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2008 Economics and markets
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 We don’t instinctively see that alchemy won’t work. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Human emotions take place within an analog brain. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 But only if intelligence ceases to be a sacred mystery to us, as life was a sacred mystery to Lord Kelvin. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 What is not acceptable is succeeding at AI and failing at Friendly AI. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 In computer security, a "trusted system" is one that you are in fact trusting, not one that is in fact trustworthy. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Intelligence is not the first thing human science has encountered that proved difficult to understand. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Querying your own human brain works fine, as an adaptive instinct, if you need to predict other humans. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 A Friendly AI plus molecular nanotechnology is presumptively powerful enough to solve any problem which can be solved either by moving… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Human uploading and upgrading will very probably not be the ground on which humanity first confronts smarter-than-human intelligence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Note also that an expert strongly confident in their opinion, is quite a different matter from a calculation made strictly from actuarial… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Friendly AI is absent from the conceptual landscape, not just unpopular or unfunded. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Viewing history through the lens of hindsight, we vastly underestimate the cost of preventing catastrophe. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 I can't feel our future. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The indispensable protection is an AI that does not want to hurt you. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The easy scenario would hold if e.g., human institutions can reliably distinguish Friendly AIs from unFriendly, and give revocable power… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Mistakenly believing that the past was predictable, people conclude that the future is predictable. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Another moral is that there’s a huge difference between one self-improvement triggering 0.9994 further improvements on average, and one… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 An AI of superhuman intelligence surely could not be modified without its consent. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 All I can do is try to defend it. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Intelligence must cease to be any kind of mystery whatever, sacred or not. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The first flaw you should notice is a Giant Cheesecake Fallacy. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 I cannot regard this verdict as good news. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The question is whether the superintelligence wants to build giant cheesecakes. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 The letter R appears in the third-letter position of more English words than in the first-letter position. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Rather the civil engineer overcomes the burden of improbability through specific choice guided by specific understanding. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Analyses should finally center on testable real-world assertions. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 After September 11th, the U.S. learned not to allow hijacked planes to overfly its cities, but did not learn the broader lesson that Black Swans occur and one should prepare for the unanticipated. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Other global risks
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 I think it would be well for estimators of existential risks to know something about heuristics and biases in general, and disconfirmation… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 If you believe someone is guilty of a psychological error, then demonstrate your competence by first demolishing their consequential… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 I am not willing to embrace a strategy which fails catastrophically if human intelligence enhancement takes longer than building AI. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 This program has made discoveries highly relevant to assessors of global catastrophic risks. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The challenge is to chain your capabilities—the physical-world analogue of combining weak vulnerabilities in a computer system to obtain… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 There are subtler defeats, but this is outright surrender. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Anyone seeking to reduce anthropomorphic bias in themselves would be well-advised to study evolutionary biology for practice, preferably… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 It is a terribly frightening thing, but people do not become any smarter, just because the survival of humankind is at stake. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Stars, chemistry and biology were once mysteries to science. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The human species, Homo sapiens, is a first mover. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Wishful thinking adds detail, constrains prediction, and thereby creates a burden of improbability. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 But preventing the Challenger disaster would have required, not attending to the problem with the O-rings, but attending to every warning… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Eliezer Yudkowsky proposed the term "Friendly AI" to describe the field of knowledge needed to build an AI with beneficial motivations. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 The bystander effect is usually explained as resulting from diffusion of responsibility and pluralistic ignorance. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 then no scientist will ever again make a suggestion, which is worse. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 That is why - despite frequent great temptation - I avoid discussing the research on calibration unless I have previously spoken of the… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The wishful thinking involved was probably more analogous to alchemy than civil engineering. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Truth is hard work, and not the kind of hard work done by storytellers. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 The conjunction fallacy has survived all experimental tests meant to disprove it. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 And maybe then we can win. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Not knowing how to build a friendly AI is not deadly, of itself, in any specific instance, if you know you don’t know. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 If you deal out cards from a deck, one after another, you will eventually deal out the ace of clubs. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 by the time your neurons finish thinking the words “I should do something” you have already lost. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2008 The Scion Funds established direct commodity exposure through futures contracts during a recent commodity price pullback. Michael Burry · Factual · 2008 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 But this makes AI catastrophes more worrisome, not less. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Therefore I strongly recommend reading Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 I’m saying that it would be easier to build the 747, and then have the 747, metaphorically speaking, upgrade the bird. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Scope neglect is the hazard of being a biological human, running on an analog brain; the brain cannot multiply by six billion. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 anthropomorphism is flypaper for unwary scientists, a trap so sticky that it takes a Darwin to escape. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 We are not aware of substituting judgment of representativeness for judgment of probability. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 People refuse to buy flood insurance even when it is heavily subsidized and priced far below actuarially fair value. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Economics and markets
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Unanimous strategies are unworkable, which does not stop people from proposing them. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 This is not a domain in which I am willing to give narrow confidence intervals Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The value of information emerges from the value of whatever it is information about; if you double the stakes, you double the value of… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 AI has safety issues; so does human intelligence enhancement. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 We change our minds less often than we think. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 An AI might make a huge jump in intelligence after reaching some threshold of criticality. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 It should be obvious that this is neither logically true, nor practically a good philosophy. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 But the student of heuristics and biases will recognize at least two major mistakes in the method - not logical flaws, but conditions… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 I do not want to play down the colossal audacity of trying to build, to a precise purpose and design, something smarter than ourselves. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 But the human mind is not the limit of the possible. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 "Hot" (emotionally charged) confirmation biases are stronger, with larger effects and more resistance to change, than "cold" ones. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 I tend to assume arbitrarily large potential jumps for intelligence because (a) this is the conservative assumption; Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The two statements, sadly, are not remotely equivalent. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Black Swans are an especially difficult version of the problem of the fat tails Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Natural selection did not design the human brain with multiple rings of precautionary measures, conservative decision processes, and orders of magnitude of safety margin. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The critical inference is not that AI is hard, but that, for some reason, it is very easy for people to think they know far more about… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 This form of failure is especially dangerous because it will appear to work within a fixed context, then fail when the context changes. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The human species, Homo sapiens, is unaging but not immortal. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Cognitive biases are settled science; one need simply quote the literature. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 The people who first invented and spread communism were idealists acting with good intentions. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The species metaphor would seem the nearest analogy a priori, but it does not lend itself to making up detailed stories. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 This book aims to introduce heuristics and biases to an intelligent general audience. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 An Artificial Intelligence could rewrite its code from scratch and change the underlying dynamics of optimization. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The vision leaps directly from capability to actuality, without considering the necessary intermediate of motive. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 If you realize that expert opinions have less force than you thought, you had better also realize that your own thoughts have much less… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The better the computing hardware, the less understanding you need to build an AI. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Asking people for a point estimate and then confidence bounds leads them to adjust from the estimate until values sound implausible, producing under-adjustment and too-narrow confidence bounds. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Risks of human extinction may tend to be underestimated since, obviously, humanity has never yet encountered an extinction event. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Because we remember future civilizations surprising past civilizations, it has become cliche that we can’t put limits on our… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 When you read a paper which proposes that a potential global catastrophe is impossible, or has a specific annual probability, or can be… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 It is this enormous space of possibilities which outlaws anthropomorphism as legitimate reasoning. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Taber and Lodge's experiments confirmed all six of the authors' prior hypotheses. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Citation 2008 Studies, including Carson and Mitchell (1995), show scope neglect applies to human lives in willingness to pay. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Citation · 2008 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky said he thinks it is possible for fallible humans to succeed at building Friendly AI, but only if intelligence ceases to be a sacred mystery to us. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 There will not necessarily be distant advance warning before AI is created, so it cannot be relied upon. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 But the code is not given to the AI, for the AI to look over and hand back if it does the wrong thing. The code is the AI. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 We should avoid, not only being duped by fiction - failing to expend the mental effort necessary to 'unbelieve' it - but also being… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 We only need to get Friendly AI right in one place and one time, not every time everywhere. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 As of 2006, the AI research community did not see Friendly AI as part of the problem. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 AI safety and alignment
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 And we need to solve the Friendly AI challenge before Artificial General Intelligence is created, not afterward; Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 In Yudkowsky's opinion at the time, which he said did not rest on a precise calculation using a precisely confirmed theory, sharp jumps in intelligence are possible and likely, and constitute the dominant probability. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
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Eliezer Yudkowsky

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Not checkable

“Note also that an expert strongly confident in their opinion, is quite a different matter from a calculation made strictly from actuarial data, or strictly from a precise, precisely confirmed model.”

Eliezer Yudkowsky 2008 Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks (UC Berkeley (hosted))

Note also that an expert strongly confident in their opinion, is quite a different matter from a calculation made strictly from actuarial…

Not checkable An opinion, value judgement or statement with nothing to check.

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Note also that an expert strongly confident in their opinion, is quite a different matter from a calculation made strictly from actuarial…” (said 2008). Verdict: not checkable. Reliability API, claim c_adff335d43dc, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_adff335d43dc

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.