Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

6,750 claims · page 32 of 68

6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2023 As of January 2023 Brooks believed the number of Tesla robo-taxis on the road was still zero. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2023 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 Cruise-style driverless ride service will not compete with human operated ride hailing systems for quite a while. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2023 SpaceX's Starship made no further flights during 2022. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2023 Technology
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2023 In essence, ChatGPT picks the most likely next word given the preceding words, whether from the user's prompt or its own generated output. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 There will be human drivers on roads for decades to come. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 Dexterity is a long way off, and manufacturing innovations will take very different functional and process forms, perhaps hardly resembling robots from popular imagination. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 As of January 2023, super powerful AI is not around the corner and AI is not about to cause the end of the world. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 The metaverse will not go anywhere despite tens of billions of dollars invested. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Technology
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Factual Jan 2023 Administrations aim to achieve this objective, and to do so they stimulate the economy 12 to 18 months earlier because the economy is large, complicated and has plenty of inertia. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2023 AI policy and governance
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Factual Jan 2023 In 1974 the US market turned up, after a 62% real decline over two years, exactly as the first Fed rate cut took place. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 The odds of a major US market decline from January 2023 are lower than they were a year earlier. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Factual Jan 2023 GMO's Equity Dislocation strategy, long the cheapest U.S. stocks and short an equal amount of the most overpriced, delivered a double-digit positive return in 2022. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 "Polycrisis" may well be the word of the year for 2023. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 The Presidential Cycle, subsiding inflation, labor market strength and China's reopening may cause a pause or delay in the bear market. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 Stocks bought in January 2023 will give a much less disappointing return than they would have a year earlier. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 The January 2023 rally may well not outlive January. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 Grantham said it was likely (3 to 1) that the S&P 500 would reach its trendline value (about 3200) and spend at least some time below it in 2023 or 2024. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Jan 2023 From 1932 through 2012, the UK market had a bigger jump on the U.S. presidential cycle than the U.S. market did. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Jan 2023 Extreme bubble pricing in stocks has been confined to the US; other equity markets range from fair price to moderate overpricing. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 If any of the major risk factors gets out of control, it might cause a severe global recession. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 In a worst case with severe recession, the market could fall 50% from January 2023 levels. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Factual Jan 2023 Every US recession in the past 50 years was preceded by a negative yield spread; there were no recessions without one. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 The inflation-adjusted trendline value of the S&P 500 will be about 3200 by the end of 2023. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mixed Steven Pinker Factual 2023 When a population is divided by any demographic variable, such as race, class, sex, ethnic group or religion, the group means are never the same. Steven Pinker · Factual · 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 2023 The partial expectation GK maps to higher moments, up to the infinite moment (the extremum) dealt with in extreme value theory. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2023 In three years, the things being advanced, which the speaker says improve every month, will be quite exciting. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 2023 The exceedance probability PK corresponds to the zeroeth moment and is always thin-tailed. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 Science and research methods
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 2023 The exceedance probability PK, as a random variable bounded between 0 and 1, necessarily has thin tails with finite mean, variance and all moments. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2023 AI will pass the Turing test by 2029, possibly sooner. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Factual 2023 Srinivasan conceded a bet and paid out about a million dollars, saying he had "burned a million to tell you they're printing trillions." Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 2023 Large language models do not see, feel or experience. Steven Pinker · Factual · 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2023 By 2045 humans will multiply their intelligence millions-fold by adding AI to their brains. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2023 By 2029 we should be able to overcome most significant health problems. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 2023 If tail probability PK does not hedge tail expectation GK, then skill at predicting PK provides no information on GK. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 Science and research methods
Mixed Nassim Taleb Factual 2023 Binary options on financial instruments proved of little economic value and are not considered an investment in the U.S. and the European Union. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Prediction 2023 Pinker expressed doubt that the growth of large language models will be exponential. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 2023 Error in the evaluation of the probability PK can translate into an explosive error in the corresponding threshold K, more so the fatter-tailed the distribution. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 2023 The Turing test has sometimes been called Alan Turing's worst idea. Steven Pinker · Factual · 2023 AI capabilities
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 2023 The paper responds to Tetlock et al. (2022). (2022). Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 2023 The tail index alpha for pandemics is well below 1. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2023 Biological simulation of humans will ultimately replace human testing of treatments. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2023 Science and research methods
Own records only Ray Kurzweil Factual 2023 Kurzweil has been following large language models for almost three years. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 2023 Binary options are banned by most corresponding regulators in the U.S. and the European Union because they are considered gambling devices. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 2023 A sum of such bets, whose probabilities are modelled with a Uniform or Beta distribution, becomes Gaussian rapidly. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Prediction 2023 Pinker suspects that large language models will not grow exponentially and develop self-awareness as a self-perpetuating technology. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Steven Pinker Factual 2023 Large language models like GPT do not have a model of the world. Steven Pinker · Factual · 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 2023 Pinker was among those who argued that predicting the next word is not how language works. Steven Pinker · Factual · 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 2023 Large language models' intelligence almost certainly does not work the same way as human intelligence. Steven Pinker · Factual · 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 2023 Current large language models are trained on a fixed dataset frozen as of 2021 and have no knowledge of events after 2021. Steven Pinker · Factual · 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 2023 AI misuse risks such as biological or chemical weapons uplift might become real risks in 2025 or 2026. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 2023 Biosecurity
Mixed Steven Pinker Factual 2023 Whether rationality and intelligence are dissociable in a human population is an unresolved controversy in the cognitive psychology literature. Steven Pinker · Factual · 2023 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 2023 While the error on a probability can be small and controlled, the error on the corresponding quantity can be infinite. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 Science and research methods
Mixed Steven Pinker Factual 2023 A lot of artificial intelligence has been deployed toward dubious goals such as propaganda, disinformation, phishing scams and manipulating people. Steven Pinker · Factual · 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 2023 The same quantity described as well below 1 also applies to wars, so forecasts for tail events in conflicts are not compatible with probability theory. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 Other global risks
Resolved true Steven Pinker Prediction 30 Dec 2022 ChatGPT will not put Google Search out of business in the near term. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 30 Dec 2022 Technology
Research failed Steven Pinker Factual 30 Dec 2022 Writing for Russian readers, Indian PM Narendra Modi extolled, however hypocritically in Pinker's view, democracy, peace, economic growth and universal humanism. Steven Pinker · Factual · 30 Dec 2022 Other
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 27 Dec 2022 A new big-data study by a team including Simon Baron-Cohen found females on average outperform males on a 'theory of mind' test across 57 countries. Steven Pinker · Factual · 27 Dec 2022 Science and research methods
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 will still be reckless and hard to control, making a significant number of stupid errors. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4's natural language output still won't be reliably usable as input to downstream programs such as databases or virtual assistants. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual 25 Dec 2022 ChatGPT regularly makes things up, and a fair bit of what it says is untrue. Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 Trustworthy AI will need genuinely new architectures incorporating explicit knowledge and world models at their core. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Factual 25 Dec 2022 ChatGPT is frequently retuned based on feedback, but weeks later Marcus still keeps being sent tweets showing its blunders. Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 When GPT-4 comes out it will totally eclipse ChatGPT, and it is a safe bet that even more people will be talking about it. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 will definitely seem smarter than its predecessors, but its internal architecture will remain problematic. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 will not be trustworthy and complete enough to give reliable medical advice. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual 25 Dec 2022 ChatGPT might sound like the Star Trek computer, but for now it still cannot be trusted. Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 Marcus fully expected GPT-4 to be the shiniest model so far, but said that this does not mean it is a critical step on the optimal path to AI that can be trusted. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 will be a very large, powerful system (a 'monster'). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 With GPT-4, fluent hallucinations will still be common and easily induced, escalating the risk of LLMs being used to create misinformation. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 may be better at faking term papers, but if it follows the same playbook as its predecessors, it still won't really understand the world, and its flaws will eventually show. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 Within a decade, maybe much less, AI's focus will shift from pure scaling of large language models to integrating them with other techniques. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Factual 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 is architecturally essentially the same as GPT-3, according to rumors. Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 by itself won't be a general-purpose AGI; without external aids it won't beat Cicero in Diplomacy, drive a car reliably, or reliably guide a robot like Optimus. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 will blow people's minds when released. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Own records only Gary Marcus Factual 25 Dec 2022 Marcus knows several people who have tried GPT-4, and all were impressed. Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 Marcus suspected that GPT-4's release would follow a pattern of immense buzz, then scientific scrutiny, then recognition that many problems remain. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 If GPT-4 is architecturally essentially the same as GPT-3, it can be expected to be unable to construct internal models of how the world works and, in consequence, unable to understand things at an abstract level. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 AI alignment between human wants and machine behavior will remain a critical unsolved problem, with GPT-4 unable to reliably follow shared human values. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual 25 Dec 2022 ChatGPT can write about anything but is easily confused. Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4's reasoning about the physical, psychological and mathematical world will still be unreliable. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 will remain a pastiche generator and useful for brainstorming and first drafts, but not trustworthy general intelligence. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Resolved true Steven Pinker Factual 24 Dec 2022 The lost Carl Sagan lecture 'Science and Civil Liberties' was discovered and edited by Steven Pinker and Harvey Silverglate and appeared in Quillette's 2022 Editors' Choice. Steven Pinker · Factual · 24 Dec 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 23 Dec 2022 Americans' belief that things are getting worse than they really are holds for racial and gender equality, poverty, incarceration, education and health. Steven Pinker · Factual · 23 Dec 2022 Science and research methods
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 21 Dec 2022 Stanford's new 'Harmful Language' guide flags as ableist language that trivializes the experiences of people living with mental health conditions. Steven Pinker · Factual · 21 Dec 2022 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 19 Dec 2022 Steven Pinker said on 2022-12-19 that he had just appeared on BBC World Service to discuss why 99 positive stories from 2022 got "virtually no coverage" in (other) mainstream media. Steven Pinker · Factual · 19 Dec 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Satya Nadella Factual 12 Dec 2022 Microsoft and London Stock Exchange Group have a strategic partnership combining LSEG's industry position with the Microsoft Cloud to deliver next-generation financial markets services. Satya Nadella · Factual · 12 Dec 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual Dec 2022 AI-generated misinformation became increasingly widespread, as Marcus warned in December 2022, but its effects have so far been less than he feared. Gary Marcus · Factual · Dec 2022 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual 21 Nov 2022 Local groups are using Microsoft's cloud to connect large quantities of surplus food with people in need amid rising food insecurity. Satya Nadella · Factual · 21 Nov 2022 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 9 Nov 2022 The big U.S. Internet companies had no effective presence in China in 2000, 2005 and 2010, behind the Great Firewall. Peter Thiel · Factual · 9 Nov 2022 Technology
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 9 Nov 2022 Something like a "crazed socialist thing ala Bernie Sanders or AOC" is dead on arrival within the Democratic Party. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 Other
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 9 Nov 2022 Without economic growth, the US will not solve political polarization, nihilism and anger. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Peter Thiel Factual 9 Nov 2022 China has about four times the population of the United States. Peter Thiel · Factual · 9 Nov 2022 Other
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 9 Nov 2022 In what he called a speculative prediction, Thiel said the California approach would beat everything within the Democratic Party but would be found shockingly wanting when it reached the country as a whole. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 Other
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 9 Nov 2022 The US response to China will be helped by China going completely berserk internally. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 Other
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 9 Nov 2022 Thiel suggested that, perhaps for structural reasons, once China's economy grows at only 3 or 4% a year with uneven growth, China will become more authoritarian and more totalitarian, "something like that". Peter Thiel · Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 Other
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 9 Nov 2022 The people Thiel was referring to as "they" would be the first millennial Republican senators. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 Other
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 9 Nov 2022 Thiel said "we", a group he compared to the Rebel Alliance, will have a vigorous debate over the next few years to figure out the answers. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 Other
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Rodney Brooks

Open its page

Factual Technology

“The biggest story of the last year is the lack of any further flights of SpaceX’s Starship.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author 1 January 2023 Predictions Scorecard, 2023 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com)

SpaceX's Starship made no further flights during 2022.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

True: no SpaceX Starship vehicle (including prototype hops or suborbital test flights) flew during calendar 2022. Mostly true: there were no Starship flights in 2022, but a minor detail is off, e.g. a brief tethered or ground-only test happened. False: one or more Starship flights took place in 2022. The judgment of whether this was the 'biggest story' is opinion and is not tested.

Evidence

  1. SpaceX Starship (spacecraft) - Wikipedia Wikipedia
    “Booster 7 and Ship 24 conducted several static fire and spin prime tests before launch,[103]: 20 with the first such test doing significant damage to Booster 7 on July 11, 2022.[104]”
  2. SpaceX Starship (spacecraft) - Wikipedia Wikipedia
    “After a launch attempt aborted on April 17, 2023,[105] Booster 7 and Ship 24 lifted off on 20 April at 13:33 UTC in the first orbital flight test, with the vehicle being destroyed before stage separation.[76]”
  3. SpaceX Starship (spacecraft) - Wikipedia Wikipedia
    “On May 5, 2021, SN15 launched, completed the same maneuvers as older prototypes, and landed safely.”
  4. Starship static fire test sparks grass fire at SpaceX Boca Chica site KRGV · 8 September 2022
    “The team at Boca Chica Starbase was performing a static fire test of Starship 24 as part of its pre-flight checks before they attempt to send Starship and its superheavy booster into suborbital flight.”

Reasoning

The evidence records ground tests of Booster 7 and Ship 24 in 2022 (E1, E4), a prototype flight on May 5, 2021 (E3) and the first orbital flight test in April 2023 (E2). None of it states whether any Starship flight, including prototype hops, took place in calendar 2022, so the criteria cannot be settled.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “SpaceX's Starship made no further flights during 2022.” (said 1 January 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_ad8ac41669fe, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ad8ac41669fe

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.