| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Valuations of major AI companies may start to fall in 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Brooks said it appears probably not to be the case that, if more made things better, even more would keep making things better, as proponents had reasoned.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Not yet due |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Rodney Brooks said he was quite confident that SpaceX would not fly 400 Starship launches in the four years 2025 through 2028, while saying it was certainly plausible he might live to see 400 Starship launches in some four-year period.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Other |
| Resolved true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
The US will continue to have very little regulation protecting consumers from generative AI risks in 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Overcoming radiation shielding and lack-of-gravity challenges for multi-year human spaceflight may take decades or even centuries.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Own records only |
Rodney Brooks | Factual |
1 Jan 2025 |
Brooks has only ever seen a Waymo reverse when he was driving the wrong way down a single-lane street and the two vehicles were heading at each other.
Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
A large-scale cyberattack in which generative AI plays an important causal role may well occur in 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Other global risks |
| Resolved true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
AI agents will be heavily hyped throughout 2025 but remain far from reliable, except possibly in very narrow use cases.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Not yet due |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
The official mid-2027 Starship lunar landing schedule will likely slip by a few years.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Rodney Brooks wrote on 2025-01-01 that New Glenn's launch seemed imminent.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not yet due |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Brooks thinks that if Waymo cannot make its taxi service succeed within the next two years, the idea of large-scale use of limited ('watered down') autonomy will be dead for at least a decade or two.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Physical robots in current designs are not ripe for exponential cost reduction by burning wastes, and that will not happen just because humanoid robots are (perhaps) mass produced.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
AI power consumption will rise in 2025 and remain a major problem, while few generative AI companies will be transparent about their usage.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Few if any radiologists will be replaced by AI in 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Resolved true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
No single AI system will solve more than 4 of the AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks by the end of 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
In 2025 humanoid robotics will see a lot of hype, but nobody will release a robot remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Neurosymbolic AI will become much more prominent in 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Not yet due |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Brooks assessed that regular weekly suborbital paying-customer flights in 2026 were looking impossible, given the data from 2023 and 2024 and one of the two companies being on hiatus for all of 2025 and well into 2026.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
In 2025 truly driverless cars will remain limited to a modest number of cities, mainly in the West and in good weather.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Rodney Brooks | Factual |
1 Jan 2025 |
Both billionaire founders of the two suborbital tourism companies have flown to space on their own craft.
Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
OpenAI's Sora will continue to have trouble with physics in 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Brooks thinks humanoid robots with even minimal useable performance are a long way from real deployment, and further still from having enough ROI for people to use them for anything beyond marketing.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
AI will presumably solve compositionality, factuality, reasoning and similar problems someday, though current techniques have thus far not been adequate.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Rodney Brooks | Factual |
1 Jan 2025 |
In the 2017 'Attention Is All You Need' transformer architecture, each column from bottom to top is a pure feed-forward network with no search, iteration or conventional algorithm.
Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
2025 |
Elon Musk says Tesla's Optimus robot will be an incredible surgeon.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Own records only |
Michael Burry | Factual |
2025 |
The duration of Scion's single-name corporate CDS portfolio is roughly 3.5 years.
Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Prediction |
2025 |
Burry does not expect a lasting rebound in the stocks of technology companies with reckless management after the bubble burst.
Michael Burry · Prediction · 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Own records only |
Michael Burry | Factual |
2025 |
Scion's investment in Blue Ocean Re has largely been wound up.
Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Warren Buffett | Prediction |
2025 |
A truly staggering insurance loss will occur someday, and there is no guarantee there will be only one per year.
Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Michael Burry | Factual |
2025 |
A number of the companies covered by Scion's credit protection contracts are engaged in the mortgage business.
Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Michael Burry | Factual |
2025 |
Scion's credit protection contracts cover $4.27 billion in notional value, largely on financial companies.
Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Warren Buffett | Promise |
2025 |
Buffett will personally match whatever is raised through the sale of the 20 autographed "Charlie" books for the Stephen Center.
Warren Buffett · Promise · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Factual |
2025 |
People put instructions in LLM system prompts but cannot get the systems to follow them.
Gary Marcus · Factual · 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Own records only |
Gary Marcus | Factual |
2025 |
For 30 years people have told Gary Marcus that abstract reasoning and variable binding will emerge from neural nets.
Gary Marcus · Factual · 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Satya Nadella | Factual |
2025 |
Nadella said that "it" went from being a joke to being standard issue within months.
Satya Nadella · Factual · 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Factual |
2025 |
As of the time of the interview, Scion held none of the listed positions.
Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Prediction |
2025 |
The Scion Value Fund's expense ratio will continue to fall as its equity, now over $14.7 million, grows.
Michael Burry · Prediction · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Elon Musk | Factual |
2025 |
Many index and passive funds vote in line with Glass Lewis and ISS recommendations.
Elon Musk · Factual · 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
2025 |
Warren Buffett received an education at three universities.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Elon Musk | Factual |
2025 |
Tesla has investigated every possible way to achieve increased voting control for Elon Musk.
Elon Musk · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Michael Burry | Factual |
2025 |
Scion's agreements with counterparties required daily collateral valuation in both directions.
Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Factual |
2025 |
The shortcuts that LLMs use work about 80% of the time but not 100%.
Gary Marcus · Factual · 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Factual |
2025 |
Marcus said he thinks many, or possibly all, animals can do some variable binding, and he cited Randy Gallistel's work on ant navigation as an example.
Gary Marcus · Factual · 2025 |
Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
2025 |
Berkshire's insurance operations are not dependent on reinsurers.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Factual |
2025 |
LLMs, which are not AGI, are already eliminating some human work.
Gary Marcus · Factual · 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
2025 |
Marcus said the chance that someone, possibly the person he was speaking with or someone else, has a different architecture that works is maybe a little higher.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Warren Buffett | Prediction |
2025 |
Buffett said he expects that Greg and his eventual successors will hold Berkshire's Japanese position for many decades, and that Berkshire will find other ways to work productively with the five companies in the future.
Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
2025 |
There are some questions, such as the definition of life in abortion decisions, on which humans will never agree.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Own records only |
Gary Marcus | Factual |
2025 |
Gary Marcus has never personally experienced 99% correct output from AI in any of the things he has tried.
Gary Marcus · Factual · 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Prediction |
2025 |
Without an automatic 1% asset management fee, the Scion Value Fund's expense ratio will generally be no greater than 1%.
Michael Burry · Prediction · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
2025 |
When "it" arrives, people will look back at the early 2020s and ask why so much effort went in one direction when the answer lay elsewhere.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
2025 |
When buying Forest River, Warren Buffett asked Pete Liegl what his compensation should be and said he would accept whatever Liegl named.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
2025 |
Marcus said he thinks the chance that "it" (the development under discussion, which the quoted passage does not name) will come out of large language models is zero.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true |
Michael Burry | Factual |
2025 |
Michael Burry earned a bachelor's degree in economics at UCLA and then an MD at Vanderbilt School of Medicine.
Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Elon Musk | Factual |
2025 |
A company that has already gone public cannot create a super voting stock.
Elon Musk · Factual · 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Warren Buffett | Prediction |
2025 |
Over time Berkshire's ownership stake in all five Japanese companies will likely increase somewhat.
Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
2025 |
Even if AGI is like a million smart people working 24/7, it will not magically solve all problems or remove the need for empirical data.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
2025 |
Elon Musk says Tesla believes Optimus and self-driving can create a world with no poverty.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
2025 |
Many different AGIs will probably appear in many places once AGI is reached.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Own records only |
Michael Burry | Factual |
2025 |
Scion COO and General Counsel Steve Druskin and CFO Zaeed Kalsheker led a top-to-bottom reorganization of Scion's back office over the past year.
Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
2025 |
Becky Quick and her CNBC crew transmit Berkshire's meetings worldwide and archive much Berkshire-related material.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
2025 |
Greg Abel has met many times with the managements of the five Japanese trading companies, and Buffett regularly follows their progress.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Satya Nadella | Factual |
2025 |
Microsoft Office was first created for the Mac, before Windows existed.
Satya Nadella · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
2025 |
It would be improbable for all of those outstanding AI problems to be solved within five years.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Own records only |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
2025 |
Carrie, whose grandfather was Bill Kizer, Sr., refused any payment for her extensive work on the new "Charlie" edition.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due |
Warren Buffett | Prediction |
2025 |
Greg Abel will soon replace Warren Buffett, aged 94, as Berkshire CEO and will write the annual letters.
Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Michael Burry | Factual |
2025 |
Blue Ocean Re was set up in late 2005 to take advantage of what Burry called an extraordinary pricing ability in the retrocessional reinsurance space.
Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Gary Marcus | Factual |
2025 |
Current AI systems lack the knowledge graph needed to handle easy facts like those on the first page of Wikipedia.
Gary Marcus · Factual · 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Michael Burry | Factual |
2025 |
Burry's main contact at Goldman Sachs was Veronica, a front-end salesperson.
Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Warren Buffett | Promise |
2025 |
Berkshire's 2025 annual meeting will have no movie and will convene earlier, at 8 a.m.
Warren Buffett · Promise · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Factual |
2025 |
Burry said "we" had some communication difficulties with "the counterparties" over "that summer", and said he did not recall the specific dates.
Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Factual |
2025 |
The total current loan balance of the deal as of the date discussed was $429,028,969.
Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Prediction |
2025 |
In a coldly calculating rather than speculative market, stocks of companies governed with little respect for shareholders will suffer.
Michael Burry · Prediction · 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Satya Nadella | Factual |
2025 |
When Nadella became CEO in 2014, Microsoft was behind in both mobile and cloud.
Satya Nadella · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
2025 |
In 2024 Berkshire made four payments to the IRS totaling $26.8 billion.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Warren Buffett | Guidance |
2025 |
Berkshire expects 2025 dividend income from its Japanese investments of about $812 million, against interest cost on its yen-denominated debt of about $135 million.
Warren Buffett · Guidance · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
2025 |
Elon Musk thinks the world is headed toward Sustainable Abundance.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Own records only |
Michael Burry | Factual |
2025 |
Michael Burry keeps the vast majority of his net worth invested in the Scion Value Fund.
Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
2025 |
In 2024, 53% of Berkshire's 189 operating businesses reported a decline in earnings, yet Berkshire did better than Buffett expected.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Michael Burry | Prediction |
2025 |
Burry said he expected additional distributions of capital and profits from the Blue Ocean Re investment during the remainder of the year of the letter.
Michael Burry · Prediction · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Gary Marcus | Factual |
2025 |
Bolting extra components onto an LLM and scaling it up has so far not produced human-level AGI.
Gary Marcus · Factual · 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Michael Burry | Factual |
2025 |
Scion did not pay $10,000,000 for the credit default swap; that was only its notional value.
Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Michael Burry | Factual |
2025 |
At the start of the second quarter, Scion Qualified Value Fund held $612 million in assets under management and Scion Value Fund held $133 million.
Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Warren Buffett | Prediction |
2025 |
Berkshire's insurance float is likely to grow a bit over time and, with intelligent underwriting and some luck, has a reasonable prospect of being costless.
Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Factual |
2025 |
Michael Burry said he remembers the responses he got when he claimed in 1999 that it was a bubble.
Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Elon Musk | Factual |
31 Dec 2024 |
Musk stated that legacy media outlets did not merely ignore President Biden's mental state but made false statements about it.
Elon Musk · Factual · 31 Dec 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
31 Dec 2024 |
Musk said he thinks SpaceX has a decent chance of solving a reusable orbital heat shield in 2025 and solving it well in 2026.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 31 Dec 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
31 Dec 2024 |
Within a few years SpaceX direct-to-cell capability will improve by more than an order of magnitude, due to more satellites and better technology.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 31 Dec 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false |
Elon Musk | Factual |
31 Dec 2024 |
X is the number 1 source of news on Earth.
Elon Musk · Factual · 31 Dec 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false |
Elon Musk | Factual |
30 Dec 2024 |
Musk said almost every legacy media outlet knowingly falsely described Biden as "sharp as a tack" just before the 2024 presidential debate, at a time when, he said, it was obvious Biden had dementia.
Elon Musk · Factual · 30 Dec 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
30 Dec 2024 |
The AfD party will win a big victory in Germany's upcoming election.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 30 Dec 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Elon Musk | Factual |
30 Dec 2024 |
Community Notes only shows a note when people who have historically disagreed agree that it is valid.
Elon Musk · Factual · 30 Dec 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Elon Musk | Factual |
30 Dec 2024 |
No one at X, including Elon Musk, has editorial control over Community Notes.
Elon Musk · Factual · 30 Dec 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Jensen Huang | Factual |
29 Dec 2024 |
After Nvidia's first graphics chip attempt failed, Huang says the company's engineers, together with Chris and Curtis, pivoted to the right way of doing things.
Jensen Huang · Factual · 29 Dec 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Jensen Huang | Factual |
29 Dec 2024 |
Huang has never seen a company whose earnings increased without it hiring more people.
Jensen Huang · Factual · 29 Dec 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Tyler Cowen | Factual |
25 Dec 2024 |
Tom Tugendhat did not become leader of the UK Conservative Party.
Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 |
Other |
| Own records only |
Tyler Cowen | Factual |
25 Dec 2024 |
Marc Andreessen has promised Tyler Cowen that Christopher Nolan's film Tenet makes sense.
Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 |
Other |
| Resolved true |
Tyler Cowen | Factual |
25 Dec 2024 |
The war in Ethiopia affecting Yonas's region is over in the immediate sense.
Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 |
Other |
| Resolved true |
Tyler Cowen | Factual |
25 Dec 2024 |
Srugim is a TV show covering Modern Orthodox Jews in contemporary Israel.
Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Tyler Cowen | Factual |
25 Dec 2024 |
As of December 2024, OpenAI's o1 pro is the best AI model available.
Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 |
AI capabilities |