Claims · Reliability API

28,548 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Person	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	A lower population would help. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	Debt levels have grown much too fast. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not researched	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	In the financial collapse, most markets crashed by over 50%, some much more, and then rebounded strongly. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	So, oil caused my formerly impregnable faith in mean reversion to be broken. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not researched	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	Grantham said he did not think weather instability in the previous 100 years had ever been as hostile as in the 12 months before April 2011. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Other global risks
Not researched	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	It is far more likely that the price trend has changed for most commodities than that they remain on the old 100-year declining trend. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	Slowly running out of these resources will be painful enough. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	The bottom line really, though, is that no compound growth can be sustainable. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	But the decline in price was not a natural law. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not researched	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	Exhibit 7 shows that for 100 years oil had a remarkably flat real price of around $16 a barrel in today's currency, even as all other commodities declined. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not researched	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	Accelerated demand from developing countries, especially China, has caused an unprecedented shift in resource price structure, with prices rising after 100+ years of declines. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not researched	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	Technological progress overcame diminishing returns in commodity production, with real prices falling over 70% on average. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not researched	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	Florence Nightingale, a great statistician, convinced the establishment that cleanliness would save lives. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Other
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	This faith in the human brain is just human exceptionalism and is not justiﬁ ed either by our past disasters Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	commodities are made and bought by serious professionals for whom today’s price is life and death. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	Mining is clearly moving out of its easy phase, and no one is trying to hide it. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	If true, this would make the idea of a second paradigm jump nearly certain. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Unresolvable	Jeremy Grantham	Prediction	Apr 2011	If bad China and better weather outcomes strike together, it will produce a second once-in-a-lifetime commodity event in three years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	China, with nearly 1.3 billion people, started doubling its economy every 10 years or less, starting around 21 years before 2011. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	Malthus's 1798 writing accurately described the past development of the human species. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	we will need global ingenuity and generosity on a scale hitherto unheard of Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	Yet there is so little panicking, so little analysis even. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not researched	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	The scientific evidence for climate change is overwhelming. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Other global risks
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	The quicker we do this, the lower the cost will be. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	our inability to understand and internalize the effects of compound growth. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	My complete lack of success in stirring up interest in our resource problems has similarly impressed me: it was like dropping reports into… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not researched	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	Statistically, the level of recent commodity price rises makes it extremely unlikely that the old declining price trend is still in place. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	it is very bad news and, like all very bad news, ordinary mortals and the bullishly-biased ﬁ nancial industry seriously want to disbelieve… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	As resource prices rise, the entire system loses in overall well-being, but the world is not without winners. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Mostly true	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	Commodity prices in general declined steadily throughout the 20th century. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Mixed	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	Commodity marginal cost increases of about 2.0% a year were outweighed by annual productivity increases of 3.2% over the 20th century. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	would have proceeded at a much slower speed, perhaps as little as a third of its actual progress. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	If our GDP in the U.S. grew 2% for the next 20 years, I think we would be doing very well. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	This excessive optimism has also been stuck up my nose several times on climate change Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not researched	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	China's capital spending is over 50% of GDP, a level never before reached by any economy in history. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	But now when they pump the last of the cheapest $5/barrel of oil and we replace it with a $120/barrel from tortured Canadian Tar Sands, the… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	need a longer-term resource plan, especially for energy, and we need it now! Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Own records only	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	None of these potential experts came within one billionth of 1% of the actual number, which is approximately 10^57. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not researched	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	Institutional investing in commodity futures lowers farmers' hedging costs, encouraging larger production and hence lower prices. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not researched	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	Iron ore prices reached a 110-year high about 8 years after their 100-year low around 2002. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	In April 2011, GMO said that, as far as it was able to determine and while noting it was not an expert in oil costs, the full cost of finding and delivering a major chunk of new oil was about $70 to $80 a barrel. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Jeremy Grantham	Prediction	Apr 2011	There is a high probability that extreme weather will be a feature of the future. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011	Other global risks
Not researched	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	In Grantham's opinion, institutional and speculative money does not drive commodity spot prices higher but persistently moves more distant futures contracts up. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	We don’t seem to deal well with long horizon issues Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	The price is set by supply and demand, and storage is limited and expensive. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Unresolvable	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	Wood availability was probably the most limiting factor on world economic growth before hydrocarbons. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	Rapid growth is not ours by divine right; it is not even mathematically possible over a sustained period. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Unresolvable	Jeremy Grantham	Prediction	Apr 2011	China's capital spending of about 50% of GDP cannot be sustained, and much of it is likely wasted. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not researched	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	Since 1994, about 50% more ore must be dug up to get the same ton of copper (per Barclays Capital data in Exhibit 8). Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not researched	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	Since about 2003 the oil price trend appears to have shifted to about $75 a barrel in real terms, roughly double the prior trend. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Jeremy Grantham	Prediction	Apr 2011	This is likely the beginning of the end of the rapid growth in population and wealth driven by the Hydrocarbon Revolution. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Jeremy Grantham	Prediction	Apr 2011	Raw material prices will rise and shortages will be common in a more resource-constrained world. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Jeremy Grantham	Prediction	Apr 2011	Almost all countries other than the U.S. will suffer lower growth from resource limits, but resource-rich countries will benefit relatively as terms of trade move in their favor. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Own records only	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	Grantham's foundation is taking a small position, about one-quarter of its eventual target, in resources in the ground and resource efficiency. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	All of the typical phantom paradigm shifts are optimistic. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	how can we possibly think that our wonderful human attributes and industriousness will prevent the arrival of global peak oil when we have… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	Such “average” rainfall makes farming difﬁ cult. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	Because it will have broad backing, this argument will be hard to resist, but should be. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	Running out abruptly and being ill-prepared would be disastrous. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	The U.S. is, of course, very well-positioned to deal with the constraints. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	Tell an Australian, and you’ll have World War III. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not researched	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	Even at 0.1% compound growth, their population or wealth would have multiplied about 20 times, or about 10 times more than actually happened. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Jeremy Grantham	Prediction	Apr 2011	Hubbert's revised estimate that global oil production would peak around 2016, give or take, could prove remarkably accurate. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Jeremy Grantham	Prediction	Apr 2011	Agricultural commodity prices are generally expected to fall in 2012 if the weather improves. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	It really is a crisis that begs for longer-term planning Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Unresolvable	Jeremy Grantham	Prediction	Apr 2011	There is about an 80% chance that China stumbles or weather is better than expected, in which case commodity prices will decline a lot. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not researched	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	The real oil price trend shifted abruptly from about $16 to about $35 a barrel in 1974, the year OPEC began. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	We think of ourselves as having almost unlimited land up our sleeve, but this is misleading Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Unresolvable	Jeremy Grantham	Prediction	Apr 2011	There is at least a 1 in 4 chance that China stumbles economically in the next year or so. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	we have gone through a profound paradigm shift in almost all commodities, caused by a permanent shift in the underlying fundamentals. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not researched	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	Global traditional onshore oil production peaked in 1982. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	For all of these commodities to move up together and by so much is way beyond the capabilities of speculators. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	What better time could there be for a fast paradigm shift than during a cartel forming around a ﬁ nite resource? Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	We are also innumerate. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	Now, with odds of over a million to one, I don’t believe the data. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not researched	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	The primary influence on recent metal price rises is increased demand from developing countries, overwhelmingly led by China. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Jeremy Grantham	Factual	Apr 2011	About 50% of China's GDP went into capital spending, partly as an effort to keep the economy afloat during the Western banking collapse. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	If trained mathematicians get it so wrong, how can an ordinary specimen of Homo Sapiens have a clue? Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	There is nothing more hateful in an opponent than his being right. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Not checkable	Jeremy Grantham	Not checkable	Apr 2011	We also became an optimistic and overconﬁ dent species Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2011
Unresolvable	Jeff Bezos	Factual	2011	Whispersync is built around an eventually consistent replicated data store with application-defined conflict resolution able to handle device isolation lasting weeks or longer. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011	Technology
Mostly true	Jeff Bezos	Factual	2011	Amazon built its storage solutions by leaning heavily on core principles from distributed systems and database research. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011	Science and research methods
Unresolvable	Jeremy Grantham	Prediction	2011	If China stumbles and weather is better than expected together, commodity prices will very probably break en masse. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2011	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Jeff Bezos	Factual	2011	Building a product detail page on Amazon.com calls on between 200 and 300 services. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011	Technology
Not checkable	Jeff Bezos	Not checkable	2011	Invention is in our DNA and technology is the fundamental tool we wield to evolve and improve every aspect of the experience we provide our… Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2011
Own records only	Jeff Bezos	Factual	2011	Amazon's key data services store many petabytes of data and handle millions of requests per second. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011	Technology
Mixed	Jeff Bezos	Factual	2011	AWS Simple Storage Service, Elastic Block Store and SimpleDB derive their basic architecture from unique Amazon technologies. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011	Technology
Not checkable	Jeff Bezos	Not checkable	2011	It’s not easy to work here Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2011
Resolved true	Jeff Bezos	Factual	2011	Amazon developed several purpose-built persistence solutions, including its own key-value store and single table store. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011	Technology
Mostly true	Jeff Bezos	Factual	2011	Amazon applied service-oriented architecture long before SOA became an industry buzzword. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Jeff Bezos	Factual	2011	Amazon applies nearly all the patterns found in current software architecture textbooks. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011	Technology
Mostly true	Jeff Bezos	Factual	2011	The storage systems Amazon has pioneered relax synchronization requirements for updates that need to be disseminated to large numbers of replicas, which lets them survive under the harshest performance and availability conditions. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011	Technology
Mostly true	Jeff Bezos	Factual	2011	Available bandwidth, disk space and processing power are increasing extraordinarily and continue to get cheaper quickly. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011	AI compute, hardware and data
Not checkable	Jeff Bezos	Not checkable	2011	In many cases, advanced machine learning techniques provide more accurate classification and can self-heal to adapt to changing conditions. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2011
Not checkable	Jeff Bezos	Not checkable	2011	To paraphrase Arthur C. Clarke, like any sufficiently advanced technology, it’s indistinguishable from magic. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2011
Not checkable	Jeff Bezos	Not checkable	2011	The storage systems we’ve pioneered demonstrate extreme scalability while maintaining tight control over performance, availability, and… Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2011
Not checkable	Jeff Bezos	Not checkable	2011	in my opinion, these techniques are not idly pursued – they lead directly to free cash flow. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2011
Not checkable	Jeff Bezos	Not checkable	2011	Rule-based systems can be used successfully, but they can be hard to maintain and can become brittle over time. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2011
Unresolvable	Jeff Bezos	Factual	2011	Amazon's architects and engineers have had to advance research in directions no academic had yet taken. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011	Science and research methods
Resolved true	Jeff Bezos	Factual	2011	Amazon's technologies are almost exclusively implemented as services with hardened interfaces as the only access to functionality. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011	Technology

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Jeremy Grantham

Open its page

Prediction Other global risks

“Unfortunately, I am conﬁ dent that we should be resigned to a high probability that extreme weather will be a feature of our collective future.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO co-founder, letter author April 2011 GMO Quarterly Letter April 2011: Time to Wake Up (GMO)

There is a high probability that extreme weather will be a feature of the future.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

A probabilistic claim about the future with no horizon is too vague to test.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “There is a high probability that extreme weather will be a feature of the future.” (said April 2011). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_a9a2f0157230, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a9a2f0157230

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.