Claims · Reliability API

28,548 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Person	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Unresolvable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2007	When a person reads the letters spelling "light bulb", the phonemes for it flow through the auditory cortex. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Unique correspondence, as a mental skill, tends to be reinforced by any goal-oriented challenge in which a useful object cannot be in two… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Peter Thiel	Not checkable	2007	The awareness of the West’s vulnerability called for a new compromise, and this new compromise inexorably demanded more security at the… Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2007	The human brain's most fundamental limit is its speed, with under 200 sequential operations available for anything taking less than a second. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007	Science and research methods
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2007	Yudkowsky wrote that he suspects a concept kernel consists of a pattern in a representation related to (but not identical with) the representation of sensory imagery, and that this pattern is produced by transforming the experiences from which the concept is abstracted. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007	Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	this smooth reversibility helps render it possible to learn a single concept which can act as a category detector or a category imposer. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	The problem with the classical view is that it allows only a limited repertoire of concepts. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2007	In humans, the concept of red is probably at the surface of the visual modality, a direct output of its feature-detectors. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007	Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable	Peter Thiel	Prediction	2007	The postmodern world could differ from the modern world in a way that is much worse or much better. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2007	Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Kernels relate concepts to sensory imagery and hence the modality level. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Even if an AI needs programmer-created concepts to bootstrap further concept formation, bootstrap concepts should be created using… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Today we have at least one reason to believe that nonsensory intelligence is a bad approach; we tried it and it didn’t work. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	An arithmetic expert system that leaves out one level of organization may be recoverable. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Concepts possess transformation relations, which are again illustrated in Copycat. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Warren Buffett	Not checkable	2007	We are delighted by the 2006 business performance of virtually all of our investees. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Warren Buffett	Not checkable	2007	For example, it’s essential that we have managers much younger than I available to succeed me. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Peter Thiel	Not checkable	2007	If one agrees with Schmitt’s starting assumptions, then the West must lose the war or lose its identity. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Peter Thiel	Not checkable	2007	Whatever its shortcomings, Schmitt’s account of politics captures the essential strangeness of the unfolding confrontation between the West… Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	is the pseudo-sensory pattern produced by abstracting from sensory experience. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Peter Thiel	Not checkable	2007	Eventually, ambitious people would come to learn that there is little one can do in politics and that all merely political careers end in… Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Peter Thiel	Not checkable	2007	Inexorably, questions of virtue and religion became private questions Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Unresolvable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Prediction	2007	The distinction between sharp, fragile human-written code and smooth biological computation is unlikely to be erased by programmer effort or new programming languages. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007	AI capabilities
Not checkable	Warren Buffett	Not checkable	2007	In effect, we’ve used up our bank account and turned to our credit card. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Concepts with procedural definitions are regular concepts and may possess kernels, exemplars, associated memories, and so on. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Warren Buffett	Not checkable	2007	There is simply no possibility that what Walter achieved over 47 years was due to chance. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2007	Yudkowsky stated that he did not believe concept-concept relations are computed by directly comparing kernel representations, and that he thought they are learned by generalizing across the concepts' usage. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007	Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable	Peter Thiel	Not checkable	2007	At the same time, this loss has rendered the West vulnerable. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	In fact, a visual cortex “knows” nothing; a sensory modality contains behaviors which correspond to environmental invariants, not knowledge… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	A human-programmed numeron detector, mutated on the code level, would probably simply break. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Mostly true	Peter Thiel	Factual	2007	The United States became more secular and materialist over time, though most citizens continued to call themselves Christians. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007	Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable	Peter Thiel	Not checkable	2007	From a Girardian perspective, the current political debates remain inadequate for the contemporary world situation Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Once an AI supersystem possesses any degree of intelligence at all, no matter how primitive, that intelligence becomes a tool which can be… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Eﬀective intelligence is produced not by having concepts but by using concepts; one learns to use concepts by using them. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Peter Thiel	Not checkable	2007	Had he been born in America, bin Laden could have been a Rockefeller. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Peter Thiel	Not checkable	2007	And if the French literary theorist René Girard is even partially correct in his extraordinary account of the history of the world, then… Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Resolved true	Warren Buffett	Prediction	2007	Berkshire's results from its bread-and-butter insurance lines will deteriorate in 2007, though Buffett said he thought they would remain satisfactory. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007	Their own work or organisation
Not researched	Warren Buffett	Factual	2007	Over his 47 partnership years Walter Schloss produced results that dramatically surpassed those of the S&P 500. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Most of the computing power is required to find the hint, not to verify the match, and a false hint does no damage Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	For a Newtonian billiards modality, an individual “gate” (subtask) might consist of four “option systems,” each option system grouped into… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Mostly true	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2007	Under GOFAI and formal logic, the classical view of concepts treats abstraction as information loss. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007	AI capabilities
Not researched	Warren Buffett	Factual	2007	Berkshire will pay about $4.4 billion in federal income tax on its 2006 earnings. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Warren Buffett	Not checkable	2007	we will make major moves only when we are unanimous in thinking them wise. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Warren Buffett	Not checkable	2007	There are two statistics, however, that are of real importance. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	This essential fact about the structure of our low-entropy universe is what makes intelligence possible, computationally tractable… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	The successive layers of organization in a sensory modality are a beautiful illustration of evolution’s design signature Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Unresolvable	Peter Thiel	Factual	2007	After World War II, hundreds of billions of dollars in cheap loans or grants were channelled to Third World governments via the World Bank, IMF and other organizations to foster growth. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	this is like talking about the United States by referring to New York. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Holonic conflict resolution is not proposed as a complete solution to perceptual problems Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Peter Thiel	Not checkable	2007	Bin Laden would quote with approval the speeches of Cromwell and Urban I, requiring almost no changes at all. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Thus, I would attribute the symbol grounding problem to “collapsing the levels of organization,” rather than “hardwiring what should be… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Mostly true	Warren Buffett	Guidance	2007	After the Equitas transaction, Berkshire's annual DCRA cost will initially increase to about $450 million a year. Warren Buffett · Guidance · 2007	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Intelligence in the fully human sense requires the ability to manipulate the world by reasoning backward from a mental image of the desired… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	certain specific complexity is required, and complexity for the sake of complexity is worse than useless. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Warren Buffett	Not checkable	2007	Berkshire’s financial strength has clearly been of huge help to Clayton. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Peter Thiel	Not checkable	2007	Avarice is no longer a mortal sin, and there is nothing wrong with the infinite accumulation of wealth Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Warren Buffett	Not checkable	2007	ISCAR makes money because it enables its customers to make more money. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Cognition goes beyond passive denotation; it can predict future sensory data from past experience. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not researched	Warren Buffett	Factual	2007	Berkshire sharply reduced its wind (super-cat) exposures because rates fell as capital flooded the field. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	I cannot rule out the possibility that a more complex, more deeply creative process was involved in the transition from triangle to pyramid Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Even so, the complexity involved in the redness concept lies almost entirely within the sensory modality, rather than the concept kernel. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not researched	Warren Buffett	Factual	2007	Fundamentals are eroding in the newspaper industry, which has caused the profits of Berkshire's Buffalo News to decline. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Concepts are faceted; they have internal structure and associational structure which comes into play when imposition or description… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Placing virtual pegs in virtual holes is admittedly not an inherently impressive result. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Concepts act as verbs, adjectives, and adverbs as well as nouns. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	The fundamental reason for preferring a nonmodality solution in this example is to demonstrate that an AI must be capable of solving… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	I would suggest using constant-resolution sensory modalities during the early stages of an AI Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2007	Yudkowsky said he doubted that feature controllers reach all the way down to the first layers of the retina, noting that he had not heard of any feedback connections reaching that far. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Peter Thiel	Not checkable	2007	1648 can be fixed as the single year that dates the birth of the modern era. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2007	Human-written programs typically involve long chains of dependencies that intersect at single points of failure. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007	AI capabilities
Not checkable	Warren Buffett	Not checkable	2007	I am enormously proud of its editor, Margaret Sullivan. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Programming inherently violates the levels of organization; it leads directly into the pitfalls of classical AI. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Even simultaneously satisfying the abstraction and satisfaction problems Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Warren Buffett	Not checkable	2007	That will not be easy. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007
Not researched	Warren Buffett	Factual	2007	Much of Berkshire's float growth came from acquiring other insurers, plus internal growth, particularly at Ajit Jain's reinsurance operation. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Concepts are patterns that mesh with sensory imagery; concepts are complex, flexible, reusable patterns that have been reified and placed… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Warren Buffett	Not checkable	2007	Picking the right person(s) will not be an easy task. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Warren Buffett	Not checkable	2007	Not all of our businesses are destined to increase profits. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	It is acceptable for the discovery of “fiveness” to be straightforward, but the discovery method must be general. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	This illustrates the second-worst error in AI, the failure to distinguish between things that can be hardwired and things that must be… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Warren Buffett	Not checkable	2007	Simply put, float is money we hold that is not ours but which we get to invest. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	I would advocate placing the AI in complex virtual environments, where the virtual environments are internal to the computer but external… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Peter Thiel	Not checkable	2007	But because the philosopher does not share all the theologian’s hopes and fears, there is more freedom in steering a middle course Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Peter Thiel	Not checkable	2007	that must be decided in every specific instance. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Peter Thiel	Not checkable	2007	The world of the Enlightenment may have been based on certain misconceptions about the nature of humanity, but the full knowledge of these… Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Unresolvable	Warren Buffett	Factual	2007	In 1967 Buffett had no expectation that Berkshire's float would develop as it has. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	I would argue that it is generally a feature. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	I would argue that the existence of an additional dependency is illusory. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Peter Thiel	Not checkable	2007	Again, there is no disagreement with Tennyson on ends, but only on means. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Peter Thiel	Not checkable	2007	For how could mere talking or even great force deter a handful of crazy, determined, and suicidal persons who seemingly operated outside of… Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	The programmers would then attempt to develop sensory modalities corresponding to the virtual environments. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Unresolvable	Warren Buffett	Prediction	2007	Berkshire's insurance operations will periodically have bad years. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Peter Thiel	Not checkable	2007	Indeed, the philosopher’s decision to write esoterically reminds us that even in America, the most liberal regime in history, there remain… Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Warren Buffett	Not checkable	2007	In addition, the great majority of our 73 businesses did outstandingly well in 2006. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Warren Buffett	Not checkable	2007	Kevin knows the business forward and backward, is a rational decision-maker and a joy to work with. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Warren Buffett	Not checkable	2007	We will follow exactly the same rule that has guided us Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	Omitting all the experiential and sensory grounding of human symbols leaves no raw material to work with. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Unresolvable	Warren Buffett	Prediction	2007	Buffett said he believed Berkshire's other insurance operations would clear the underwriting-gain hurdle needed for overall float to be cost-free in many, if not most, years. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Peter Thiel	Not checkable	2007	Of all the mortal sins of medieval Catholicism, envy is the one closest to mimetic rivalry Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2007	There is an immediately obvious way to train a neural net to detect satisfaction of Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable	Peter Thiel	Not checkable	2007	For as soon as the theoretical esotericism of the philosopher is combined with some sort of practical implementation, self-referential… Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007

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Peter Thiel

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Prediction Philosophy, ethics and society

“For that world could differ from the modern world in a way that is much worse or much better”

Peter Thiel, essay author 2007 The Straussian Moment (gwern.net (PDF))

The postmodern world could differ from the modern world in a way that is much worse or much better.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Reasoning

Hedged claim that the world 'could be much worse or much better'; it has no testable criteria or horizon.

Cite this claim

Peter Thiel, “The postmodern world could differ from the modern world in a way that is much worse or much better.” (said 2007). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_a50b048c93cd, method 0.1.0+3e03e2df. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a50b048c93cd

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.