Claims

Prediction · AI compute, hardware and data

“we are still -- we still expect to be part or primarily chip-limited this year.”

Elon Musk, Tesla CEO · 27 January 2022 · Tesla Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript (Motley Fool)

Tesla still expects to be partly or primarily chip-limited in 2022.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

The prediction is that during 2022, Tesla's vehicle production would be partly or mainly held back by semiconductor (chip) supply. TRUE: Tesla's 2022 filings, shareholder updates or earnings calls, or credible reporting, show that chip shortages limited Tesla's production at some meaningful point in 2022. MOSTLY TRUE: chip supply was one of several binding supply constraints but was not clearly the main one. MIXED: chip constraints affected only a brief or minor part of 2022 while other factors dominated. MOSTLY FALSE: Tesla reports that chips were essentially not a production constraint in 2022, apart from trivial or isolated effects. FALSE: Tesla's records show production in 2022 was not chip-limited at all, with other constraints (for example factory ramps, lockdowns or logistics) alone limiting output.

Evidence

1. Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2022 vehicle delivery and production numbers CNBC · 2 July 2022

   “Tesla was hamstrung during the period ending June 30, 2022, by parts shortages, supply chain snarls and Covid restrictions that forced China's Shanghai factory to close or operate only partially for weeks.”

2. Chip-starved firms are scavenging silicon from washing machines The Star (Bloomberg syndication) · 22 April 2022

   “Tesla Inc said this week that production remains hampered by shortages and elevated prices for key components, while Volkswagen AG has cautioned to expect continued negative effects from chip scarcity.”

3. Tesla TSLA earnings Q2 2022 CNBC · 20 July 2022

   “Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine and Covid outbreaks in China exacerbated ongoing semiconductor and parts shortages, along with other supply chain snags. Covid restrictions in Shanghai forced Tesla to temporarily suspend or limit production at its factory there during the second quarter of 2022.”

4. 10-K U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Tesla, Inc. annual report for FY2022) Own record

   “For example, a global shortage of semiconductors has been reported since early 2021 and has caused challenges in the manufacturing industry and impacted our supply chain and production.”

Reasoning

Tesla's FY2022 10-K says the global semiconductor shortage affected its supply chain and production (E4). Independent reporting from 2022 describes ongoing semiconductor and parts shortages in Q2 2022 (E3). It also cites Tesla in April 2022 saying shortages of key components were still holding back production (E2). The same reports name other limits, especially the Covid shutdowns at the Shanghai factory and wider supply chain problems (E1, E3). So chips were one of several binding constraints in 2022, but the evidence does not show they were the main one.

Cite this claim

Elon Musk, “Tesla still expects to be partly or primarily chip-limited in 2022.” (said 27 January 2022). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_a392834e04f9, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a392834e04f9