28,548 claims · page 36 of 286
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not researched | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2026 | Actual worldwide revenue from eVTOL taxi flights in 2025 was zero. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Rodney Brooks | Not checkable | 1 Jan 2026 | A single human care-giver along with one human-manipulator robot could provide a lot more care for a frail elderly person than the… Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026 | |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 1 Jan 2026 | Waymo looks to have a shot at succeeding and is unlikely to lose first place in the self driving taxi race. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 | Technology |
| Not checkable | Rodney Brooks | Not checkable | 1 Jan 2026 | Just phenomenal unmatched reliability and performance. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Rodney Brooks | Not checkable | 1 Jan 2026 | Above I had argued against do this with a general purpose humanoid hand. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026 | |
| Not researched | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2026 | With suction grippers, the control of the embodied action of grasping can become much more a simply situated action. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Not yet due | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 1 Jan 2026 | Over the next 10 years the winning quantum computers will be those solving real problems in materials science, chemistry and physics. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 | Technology |
| Not yet due | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 1 Jan 2026 | Blue Origin may make a soft landing on the Moon in 2026. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 1 Jan 2026 | LLMs that can explain which data led to which outputs will be key to deployments that are not annoying, dangerous or stupid. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 | AI safety and alignment |
| Not researched | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2026 | Blue Origin's 2030 lunar mission architecture uses in-flight refueling, as SpaceX's does, but with far fewer launches. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 | Other |
| Not checkable | Rodney Brooks | Not checkable | 1 Jan 2026 | If any other company wants to compete with Waymo or Zoox, even in cities where they do not operate, it is going to need a lot of capital. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Rodney Brooks | Not checkable | 1 Jan 2026 | To an outside observer it looks like level 4, but it is somewhat less than that in reality. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Rodney Brooks | Not checkable | 1 Jan 2026 | I think the key idea with this option is to remove the need for any in flight refueling for the first crewed landing. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026 | |
| Not yet due | Gary Marcus | Prediction | Jan 2026 | In 2026 humanoid domestic robots like Tesla's Optimus and Figure will be mostly demos with very little actual product. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Gary Marcus | Factual | Jan 2026 | Reviews by Joanna Stern and Marques Brownlee of one early humanoid robot prototype were damning. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Not researched | Gary Marcus | Factual | Jan 2026 | Neurosymbolic AI is starting to rise in prominence. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | Jan 2026 | Although valuations may rise before falling, the September Oracle craze and subsequent events will in hindsight be seen as the beginning of the end of the AI bubble. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Gary Marcus | Prediction | Jan 2026 | Gary Marcus does not expect his 2026 predictions to be as on target as his 2025 predictions were. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Gary Marcus | Factual | Jan 2026 | Many would agree the AI field has reached a point of diminishing returns from scaling, and faith in scaling as a route to AGI has dissipated. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Not checkable | Gary Marcus | Not checkable | Jan 2026 | across the field, the intellectual situation has gone from one that was stagnant (all LLMs all the time) and unrealistic (“AGI is nigh”) to… Gary Marcus · Not checkable · Jan 2026 | |
| Not researched | Gary Marcus | Factual | Jan 2026 | Few AI companies aside from Nvidia are making a profit, and no AI company has much of a technical moat. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true | Gary Marcus | Factual | Jan 2026 | AGI did not materialize in 2025, contrary to predictions by Elon Musk and others, and GPT-5 was underwhelming and did not solve hallucinations. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Gary Marcus | Prediction | Jan 2026 | No country will take a decisive lead in the generative AI race in 2026. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | Jan 2026 | 2025 will be remembered as the year of the peak AI bubble and the moment Wall Street began losing confidence in generative AI. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | Jan 2026 | Trump may eventually distance himself from AI because of the backlash. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Not researched | Gary Marcus | Factual | Jan 2026 | In 2025 no AI system solved more than 4 (or perhaps any) of the Marcus-Brundage tasks. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Not checkable | Gary Marcus | Not checkable | Jan 2026 | If anything would lead to genuine progress, it would be that. Gary Marcus · Not checkable · Jan 2026 | |
| Not researched | Gary Marcus | Factual | Jan 2026 | OpenAI has lost a lot of its lead over competitors in AI. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Gary Marcus | Prediction | Jan 2026 | Work on new approaches such as world models and neurosymbolic AI will escalate in 2026. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Factual | Jan 2026 | By Gary Marcus's own count, sixteen of his seventeen high-confidence predictions about 2025 proved correct. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Gary Marcus | Prediction | Jan 2026 | Artificial general intelligence will not be achieved in 2026 (or 2027). Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not checkable | Gary Marcus | Not checkable | Jan 2026 | LLMs still aren’t reliable; the economics look dubious. Gary Marcus · Not checkable · Jan 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Gary Marcus | Not checkable | Jan 2026 | Astonishing how much the vibe has shifted in just a few months, especially with people like Sutskever and Sutton coming out with their own… Gary Marcus · Not checkable · Jan 2026 | |
| Not yet due | Gary Marcus | Prediction | Jan 2026 | In the 2026 US midterm elections, AI will be an election issue for the first time. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Not yet due | Gary Marcus | Prediction | Jan 2026 | Backlash to generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate in 2026. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Not checkable | Gary Marcus | Not checkable | Jan 2026 | At this point I doubt many people would publicly disagree, but just a few months ago the world was rather different. Gary Marcus · Not checkable · Jan 2026 | |
| Mostly true | Gary Marcus | Factual | Jan 2026 | AI agents did not turn out to be reliable in 2025. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Not checkable | Peter Thiel | Not checkable | 2026 | "The Communist Party of China is not going to listen to the pope," Thiel said, according to Politico. "There's a chance people in the US… Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Peter Thiel | Not checkable | 2026 | don't do tomorrow what you can save for the day after. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Peter Thiel | Not checkable | 2026 | even 5 or 10% seems pretty bad Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Peter Thiel | Not checkable | 2026 | it wouldn't be me, Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2026 | |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2026 | Anthropic decided not to put ads in Claude, a decision partly based on the belief that AI technology is different because of how personal user conversations are. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2026 | The founders considered the name "Sparrow Systems" before choosing Anthropic. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable | Peter Thiel | Not checkable | 2026 | He went further, telling Döpfner that the pope was "at least acting as a useful idiot for the CCP," Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Peter Thiel | Not checkable | 2026 | extremely hard to catch up Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2026 | |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2026 | Anthropic is open about the fact that its models sometimes make things up. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Not checkable | Marc Andreessen | Not checkable | 2026 | You don’t want to put it in a cage. Nor do you want to let it run completely free. But you want it free-range. Marc Andreessen · Not checkable · 2026 | |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2026 | A lot of people use Claude for medical questions. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Peter Thiel | Prediction | 2026 | Thiel said that in theory AI could be slowed with genuine, deep cooperation across the whole world, but that he thinks this would require something like a one world government with real teeth and real force. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Not checkable | Marc Andreessen | Not checkable | 2026 | And then the most important question thereafter, as Andy Grove put it, is, who is going to let chaos reign, and then rein in the chaos? Marc Andreessen · Not checkable · 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Marc Andreessen | Not checkable | 2026 | One of the best tells that a technology will actually change the world is, ‘Does it make a chaotic entrance?’ Marc Andreessen · Not checkable · 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Peter Thiel | Not checkable | 2026 | the alternative of zero progress is "far from neutral," Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2026 | |
| Mixed | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2026 | Amodei said she thought, as she was remembering it, that some early model names were bird names, and gave BERT as an example. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable | Michael Burry | Not checkable | 2026 | more like 2000 than any time since, but not 2000 yet. Michael Burry · Not checkable · 2026 | |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2026 | The founders named the company Anthropic after rejecting bird-themed name ideas. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable | Balaji Srinivasan | Not checkable | 28 Dec 2025 | Exit California. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 28 Dec 2025 | |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 27 Dec 2025 | California, the physical platform on which "it" is built, is collapsing; the surrounding text does not say what "it" refers to. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 27 Dec 2025 | Other global risks |
| Not checkable | Balaji Srinivasan | Not checkable | 26 Dec 2025 | And the latter is the hard part. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 26 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Balaji Srinivasan | Not checkable | 26 Dec 2025 | Alternative thesis: prompting is programming. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 26 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Balaji Srinivasan | Not checkable | 25 Dec 2025 | So the rise is invisible, despite being all too visible. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 25 Dec 2025 | |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Dec 2025 | Western states will eventually become so dysfunctional that they effectively cease to exist, after which a new era begins. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Dec 2025 | Other global risks |
| Not checkable | Balaji Srinivasan | Not checkable | 25 Dec 2025 | Notably absent: places like Warsaw, Dubai, Riyadh, Shenzhen, Bangalore, Singapore, Ho Chi Minh City, and Shanghai. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 25 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Balaji Srinivasan | Not checkable | 24 Dec 2025 | The technologist is the capitalist of the 21st century. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 24 Dec 2025 | |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 22 Dec 2025 | Tech money is the one thing keeping some of the economies of cities such as Seattle, Portland, Chicago, LA and Boston afloat. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 22 Dec 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Not researched | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 22 Dec 2025 | Inflation is boosting US homeowners' property taxes without increasing their resale value. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 22 Dec 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 22 Dec 2025 | American real estate will become more affordable only for those outside the rapidly inflating dollar economy, living abroad or holding hard currencies. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 22 Dec 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Balaji Srinivasan | Not checkable | 22 Dec 2025 | Add to that the corruption of a failed state that takes infinite taxes but can't stop endless fires, and you get the Pacific Palisades. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Balaji Srinivasan | Not checkable | 22 Dec 2025 | Powerful factions (NIMBYs, boomers) do not want US real estate to go down in real terms. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025 | |
| Not researched | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 22 Dec 2025 | The new BYD chargers add 400km of range in five minutes. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 22 Dec 2025 | Technology |
| Mostly false | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 22 Dec 2025 | Electric vehicles now fill up roughly as fast as gasoline vehicles. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 22 Dec 2025 | Technology |
| Not checkable | Balaji Srinivasan | Not checkable | 22 Dec 2025 | But all of those forces (libertarian, left, and right) want to bring the real price of real estate down. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025 | |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 22 Dec 2025 | Billions of dollars in California real estate lie fallow because of eroded property rights. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 22 Dec 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Balaji Srinivasan | Not checkable | 22 Dec 2025 | very similar to what happened in Russia in the 90s after the end of the Soviet Empire. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Balaji Srinivasan | Not checkable | 22 Dec 2025 | And real estate is really not very safe in a failed state. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025 | |
| Not researched | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 22 Dec 2025 | US real estate has been dropping in real terms, measured against a basket of Internet currencies and Internet companies. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 22 Dec 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 22 Dec 2025 | Gold can be stopped at TSA metal detectors. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 22 Dec 2025 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 22 Dec 2025 | The compromise outcome may be that the nominal value of US real estate rises through money printing while the real value of the dollar falls. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 22 Dec 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Not researched | Balaji Srinivasan | Citation | 22 Dec 2025 | The Case-Shiller index shows US real estate at the top of a nominal bubble larger than the 2008 crisis peak. Balaji Srinivasan · Citation · 22 Dec 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Balaji Srinivasan | Not checkable | 22 Dec 2025 | Safety came from getting outside the system, from exiting the failing system. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Balaji Srinivasan | Not checkable | 22 Dec 2025 | Guns are only truly useful when the state fails, in genuine Mad Max scenarios. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Balaji Srinivasan | Not checkable | 22 Dec 2025 | This is the EV flippening. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Elon Musk | Not checkable | 19 Dec 2025 | You might be in a computer. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Elon Musk | Not checkable | 19 Dec 2025 | Nobody’s perfect. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Elon Musk | Not checkable | 19 Dec 2025 | People are posting pictures of when they’re really happy. They’re modifying those pictures to be better looking. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Elon Musk | Not checkable | 19 Dec 2025 | Usually 200 or 250 miles is fine. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Elon Musk | Not checkable | 19 Dec 2025 | And nobody looks good all the time. Doesn’t matter who you are. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Elon Musk | Not checkable | 19 Dec 2025 | It seems like they should really recalibrate that because if it’s always fast, you could just delete those minutes. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Elon Musk | Not checkable | 19 Dec 2025 | And I think really most people are actually pretty good people. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Elon Musk | Not checkable | 19 Dec 2025 | So being in a tunnel is being in a submarine. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Elon Musk | Not checkable | 19 Dec 2025 | Electric airplane isn’t necessary right now. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Elon Musk | Not checkable | 19 Dec 2025 | It’s not necessarily a doomsday countdown. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Elon Musk | Not checkable | 19 Dec 2025 | You could have 100 levels of tunnel, no problem. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Elon Musk | Not checkable | 19 Dec 2025 | I mean, you should try Model S P100D. It’ll blow your mind or your skull. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Elon Musk | Not checkable | 19 Dec 2025 | Because people generally think of themselves relative to others. We are constantly re-baselining our expectations. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Elon Musk | Not checkable | 19 Dec 2025 | That could be quite a positive outcome for the future. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Elon Musk | Not checkable | 19 Dec 2025 | At least our car doesn’t crash. That’s better. It’s better not to crash. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Elon Musk | Not checkable | 19 Dec 2025 | Yeah, well, happiness is reality minus expectations. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Elon Musk | Not checkable | 19 Dec 2025 | if you’re a prosecutor, you should not always want to win. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Elon Musk | Not checkable | 19 Dec 2025 | Living on the edge without a case. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025 | |
| Not checkable | Elon Musk | Not checkable | 19 Dec 2025 | I don’t know what would happen if I got into a sensory deprivation tank. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025 |
“Exit California.”
Balaji Srinivasan 28 December 2025 Post by @balajis on X, 2025-12-28 (X)
Exit California.
Not checkable An opinion, value judgement or statement with nothing to check.
Cite this claim
Balaji Srinivasan, “Exit California.” (said 28 December 2025). Verdict: not checkable. Reliability API, claim c_a0b77d0efa08, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a0b77d0efa08
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.