2,528 claims · page 1 of 26
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 27 Oct 2026 | Since its inception Anthropic has built its reputation on rigorous model safety and responsible scaling, including what she called pioneering work on interpretability research and Constitutional AI. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 27 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 27 Oct 2026 | Daniela Amodei said the decision to keep ads out of Claude was an immovable baseline established from day one. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 27 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Michael Burry | Factual | 27 Oct 2026 | Michael Burry has never said that LLMs would stop improving. Michael Burry · Factual · 27 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Michael Burry | Factual | 26 Oct 2026 | After one year on Substack, Cassandra Unchained is No. 1 Rising on Substack with 402,000 followers and 343,000 subscribers. Michael Burry · Factual · 26 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Michael Burry | Promise | 26 Oct 2026 | Michael Burry will not change Cassandra Unchained pricing from $49/month and $479/year. Michael Burry · Promise · 26 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Michael Burry | Promise | 26 Oct 2026 | The Cassandra Unchained Substack will not raise its subscription price on November 1, 2026. Michael Burry · Promise · 26 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Michael Burry | Promise | 26 Oct 2026 | Subscribers to Cassandra Unchained keep their original rate and plan for the lifetime of their subscription and can renew continuously at that initial rate. Michael Burry · Promise · 26 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 21 Oct 2026 | Anthropic's charter is to responsibly develop and maintain advanced AI for the long-term benefit of humanity. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 21 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Satya Nadella | Promise | 21 Oct 2026 | A transcript with video and audio of the entire 2026 Microsoft Annual Meeting will be available on the Microsoft Investor Relations website after the meeting. Satya Nadella · Promise · 21 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Satya Nadella | Promise | 21 Oct 2026 | Microsoft's 2026 Annual Meeting on December 8, 2026 will be followed by a question and answer session. Satya Nadella · Promise · 21 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Daniela Amodei | Promise | 21 Oct 2026 | Anthropic will publish its public benefit report annually. Daniela Amodei · Promise · 21 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Satya Nadella | Promise | 21 Oct 2026 | Microsoft's 2026 virtual Annual Shareholders Meeting on December 8, 2026 will be conducted and made available via webcast. Satya Nadella · Promise · 21 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 21 Oct 2026 | Anthropic announced that, subject to stockholder approval, it is setting aside at least 5% of its shares to fund projects pursuing its public benefit charter. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 21 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Prediction | 21 Oct 2026 | Anthropic hopes that, through the share set-aside, co-founders' 80% equity pledges and matched employee pledges, about 20% of its shares will be put toward the public good. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 21 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | ACX has an unofficial subreddit, Discord and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | An alternate survey asks respondents to predict how Scott Alexander would answer the first survey, to separate worldview differences from random noise. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | The Bay Area ACX meetup is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 1 PM at Mox, 1680 Mission St, San Francisco. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | Scott Alexander's new survey asks respondents to assign utility weights to about 80 different AI safety accomplishments. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | ACX meetups in Rockville, Northampton, Eindhoven, Great Barrington, Cairo, Portland and Sofia have had changes announced as of October 2026. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | ACX's main San Francisco endorsement for the 2026 election is Scott Wiener for Congress. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | The Boston ACX meetup group has finished its Greater Boston general election voting guide. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time | Scott Alexander | Promise | 19 Oct 2026 | Scott Alexander will probably publish a post about the Bay Area ACX meetup. Scott Alexander · Promise · 19 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | Scott Alexander is continuing to work on modeling, and maybe later automating, parts of AI grantmaking. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Michael Burry | Promise | 14 Oct 2026 | 5% of Cassandra Unchained's gross revenues in October 2026 will go to Siloam Health. Michael Burry · Promise · 14 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Michael Burry | Factual | 13 Oct 2026 | Michael Burry swapped common stock for junior preferred shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Michael Burry · Factual · 13 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Michael Burry | Factual | 11 Oct 2026 | In the week before 2026-10-11, Michael Burry made a trade move in both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stock. Michael Burry · Factual · 11 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Steven Pinker | Factual | 7 Oct 2026 | Recent AI progress has forced Pinker to update his earlier arguments against connectionism. Steven Pinker · Factual · 7 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Steven Pinker | Factual | 7 Oct 2026 | Pinker was wrong in his earlier view that neural networks alone could not achieve human-matching intelligence including language. Steven Pinker · Factual · 7 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Scott Alexander | Factual | 5 Oct 2026 | Reader Nikita Sokolsky has finished obtaining extra Fatima documents from Portugal and translating them into English. Scott Alexander · Factual · 5 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Factual | 5 Oct 2026 | Brigham Young University's EA college meetup has changed its time, date and place. Scott Alexander · Factual · 5 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Factual | 5 Oct 2026 | Most Astral Codex Ten content is free and some is subscriber-only. Scott Alexander · Factual · 5 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Factual | 5 Oct 2026 | Scott Alexander has written little recently on ACX and forgot to post Friday's book review entry. Scott Alexander · Factual · 5 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Factual | 5 Oct 2026 | Rob Ennals, who made this year's ACX book review contest site, has gathered reviews from earlier years into epubs. Scott Alexander · Factual · 5 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Factual | 5 Oct 2026 | Astral Codex Ten has an unofficial subreddit, Discord and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world. Scott Alexander · Factual · 5 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Oct 2026 | When launching Anthropic, its cofounders were already "in the same zone" about what they wanted to build. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Bill Ackman | Factual | 1 Oct 2026 | Bill Ackman can reach 2.2 million people with a single post. Bill Ackman · Factual · 1 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 1 Oct 2026 | AMI Labs' work is AI for the physical world and is not language-related. Yann LeCun · Factual · 1 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Bill Ackman | Factual | 1 Oct 2026 | PSUS holds a portfolio of Pershing Square's best ideas and trades at an 18% discount to cash. Bill Ackman · Factual · 1 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Bill Ackman | Factual | 1 Oct 2026 | Pershing Square now has a public vehicle that charges only a 2% fee. Bill Ackman · Factual · 1 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 1 Oct 2026 | AMI Labs builds systems that understand the real world, such as a manufacturing plant or turbojet engine. Yann LeCun · Factual · 1 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Factual | 1 Oct 2026 | Bill Ackman writes all his own posts and material himself. Bill Ackman · Factual · 1 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | GiveWell | Prediction | 30 Sep 2026 | GiveWell expects to direct nearly three times as much malaria funding in 2026 as in 2025. GiveWell · Prediction · 30 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | GiveWell | Factual | 30 Sep 2026 | GiveWell has already directed over $600 million in 2026 to help people in need. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | GiveWell | Factual | 30 Sep 2026 | Over the past two years GiveWell increased its research team from 38 people to 85 and is continuing to hire across the organization. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | GiveWell | Factual | 30 Sep 2026 | The UNFPA Supplies Partnership grant is GiveWell's first grant through a pooled fund. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | GiveWell | Factual | 30 Sep 2026 | In 2025, GiveWell raised $616 million and directed $427 million to programs in 32 countries. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | GiveWell | Factual | 30 Sep 2026 | GiveWell's Cross-Cutting research subteam investigates the impact of funded programs, works to resolve the largest uncertainties, and strengthens data collection and analysis. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | GiveWell | Factual | 30 Sep 2026 | GiveWell's 2025 fundraising of $616 million was its largest fundraising year to date. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | GiveWell | Prediction | 30 Sep 2026 | The programs GiveWell funded with 2025 donations will save about 86,000 lives in total. GiveWell · Prediction · 30 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Steven Pinker | Factual | 26 Sep 2026 | Pinker's 2018 book Enlightenment Now contains a 31-page chapter titled "Existential Risk," which is his principal contribution to mass discourse on existential risk. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Steven Pinker | Factual | 26 Sep 2026 | Steven Pinker has never criticised or publicly disagreed with Scott Alexander, nor called him names like "paranoid" or "weird moron." Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 26 Sep 2026 | Pinker's arguments on AI risk were laid out five years before the release of LLM chatbots. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Steven Pinker | Factual | 26 Sep 2026 | Steven Pinker has taken part in only one formal public debate, alongside Matt Ridley against Malcolm Gladwell and Alain de Botton. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Steven Pinker | Factual | 26 Sep 2026 | Pinker's counterargument to the criticism that the Enlightenment and the ideal of progress would lead to human extinction, for example through runaway AI, said nothing about maleness, polyamory, paranoia or similar irrelevancies. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Peter Thiel | Factual | 25 Sep 2026 | Thiel's stagnation thesis held that technological progress has slowed since the 1970s. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Peter Thiel | Factual | 25 Sep 2026 | Thiel's 2009 article did not argue that people would lose their votes or that democracy would disappear. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Gary Marcus | Factual | 25 Sep 2026 | A RiskReversal-hosted podcast features Gary Marcus and investor Jim Chanos discussing how generative AI might fall apart. Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Peter Thiel | Factual | 25 Sep 2026 | Thiel said he encouraged the person under discussion to write his book and supported him financially when he ran for the Senate in 2022. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Peter Thiel | Factual | 25 Sep 2026 | Thiel said he wrote the article quickly and sent it to a colleague to ask whether anything in it was too controversial. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Peter Thiel | Factual | 25 Sep 2026 | Thiel's 2009 article argued for depoliticization, a reduction in the intensity of politics. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Dario Amodei | Factual | 23 Sep 2026 | In his essay Machines of Loving Grace, Dario Amodei wrote that AI could "cure most diseases in 5-10 years". Dario Amodei · Factual · 23 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Warren Buffett | Factual | 18 Sep 2026 | Howard Buffett has been a Berkshire director for 33 years. Warren Buffett · Factual · 18 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time | Warren Buffett | Promise | 18 Sep 2026 | Warren Buffett becomes Chairman Emeritus of Berkshire and remains a director. Warren Buffett · Promise · 18 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Factual | 18 Sep 2026 | Warren Buffett took the reins at Berkshire at age 34, after a shorter apprenticeship than Howard Buffett's 33 years as director. Warren Buffett · Factual · 18 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Warren Buffett | Factual | 18 Sep 2026 | Howard Buffett succeeds Warren Buffett as Berkshire's Chairman. Warren Buffett · Factual · 18 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Warren Buffett | Factual | 18 Sep 2026 | Warren Buffett has served Berkshire since 1965. Warren Buffett · Factual · 18 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 15 Sep 2026 | Meta has just released Muse Spark 1.3, an advanced AI model. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 15 Sep 2026 | Zuckerberg uses both Muse and Meta AI. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 15 Sep 2026 | Muse can connect to Meta's ad systems for users running a business. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 15 Sep 2026 | Zuckerberg posts the same content on both Threads and X. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time | Mark Zuckerberg | Promise | 15 Sep 2026 | Meta will ship its Watermelon model soon. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 15 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 15 Sep 2026 | Zuckerberg said he thinks the platform he was discussing is either bigger than X already or very soon about to be. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 15 Sep 2026 | Meta releases some of its AI models as open models. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 15 Sep 2026 | Muse works with Meta's services if the user chooses to connect them. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 15 Sep 2026 | Meta does some closed (non-open-source) AI work. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 15 Sep 2026 | Zuckerberg built Meta's AI lab literally around where he sits in the office. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 15 Sep 2026 | Meta has been a leader in machine learning for a long time. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 15 Sep 2026 | Muse and Meta AI may converge over time. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 15 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 12 Sep 2026 | Dario Amodei has published a new essay, "We Must Pace the Frontier", arguing the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan. Dario Amodei · Factual · 12 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Sam Altman | Factual | 4 Sep 2026 | Altman said OpenAI was announced at the very end of 2015 and that its first day of work was around January 2016. Sam Altman · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Sam Altman | Factual | 4 Sep 2026 | By 2015 Sam Altman had become convinced that powerful AI was really going to happen and decided to try building it. Sam Altman · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Factual | 4 Sep 2026 | NVIDIA's architecture runs every AI model in every field of science and every modality, including American and international models. Jensen Huang · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Jensen Huang | Factual | 4 Sep 2026 | NVIDIA's architecture runs every AI model and all data processing and parallel processing tasks. Jensen Huang · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Factual | 4 Sep 2026 | Sam Altman was a sci-fi and AI enthusiast as a child. Sam Altman · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | GiveWell | Factual | 31 Aug 2026 | Around 95% of funds GiveWell raised in 2025 were donations left to GiveWell to allocate rather than restricted to a particular organization, higher than any previous year. GiveWell · Factual · 31 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | GiveWell | Factual | 31 Aug 2026 | GiveWell raised more money in 2025 than in any previous year, and donations to each of its giving funds (All Grants, Top Charities, Unrestricted) were also higher than in any previous year. GiveWell · Factual · 31 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | GiveWell | Prediction | 31 Aug 2026 | GiveWell estimates that programs supported by the funds it directed in 2025 will save an additional 86,000 lives. GiveWell · Prediction · 31 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | GiveWell | Factual | 31 Aug 2026 | GiveWell has spent years growing its research capacity and scope to direct significantly more funding to the most impactful opportunities, and 2025 was a milestone in that growth. GiveWell · Factual · 31 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | GiveWell | Factual | 31 Aug 2026 | Around $124 million (29% of funds directed) in 2025 went to GiveWell's four Top Charities. GiveWell · Factual · 31 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | GiveWell | Factual | 31 Aug 2026 | GiveWell's 86,000 lives-saved estimate covers only the 2025 grants that had reduced mortality as a primary outcome. GiveWell · Factual · 31 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | GiveWell | Factual | 31 Aug 2026 | In 2025 GiveWell directed around $427 million to high-impact programs and organizations, an 8% increase in funds directed compared to 2024. GiveWell · Factual · 31 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | GiveWell | Factual | 31 Aug 2026 | Most donors who give via GiveWell rely on GiveWell to allocate their donation rather than restricting it to a particular organization. GiveWell · Factual · 31 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | GiveWell | Factual | 31 Aug 2026 | GiveWell directed $427 million to opportunities in 32 countries in metrics year 2025. GiveWell · Factual · 31 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | GiveWell | Factual | 31 Aug 2026 | GiveWell raised $616 million in metrics year 2025 (February 1, 2025 to January 31, 2026), an increase of 49% from 2024. GiveWell · Factual · 31 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | GiveWell | Prediction | 31 Aug 2026 | GiveWell's total grantmaking in 2026 is likely to approach or exceed $1 billion. GiveWell · Prediction · 31 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Factual | 29 Aug 2026 | Bill Gates says that when working on malaria and nutrition he pastes long conversations between himself, Claude and ChatGPT to his colleagues. Bill Gates · Factual · 29 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Factual | 29 Aug 2026 | Bill Gates sometimes debates topics in a three-way conversation with Claude and ChatGPT. Bill Gates · Factual · 29 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Ørsted | Promise | 13 Aug 2026 | Ørsted will deliver an average ROCE of about 11% for 2026-2027 and above 13% for 2028-2030. Ørsted · Promise · 13 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Ørsted | Factual | 13 Aug 2026 | Ørsted's ROCE fell from 7.5% to 3.1% mainly due to higher capital employed and slightly lower earnings for the 12-month period. Ørsted · Factual · 13 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Ørsted | Promise | 13 Aug 2026 | Ørsted's dividend policy for financial years 2026-2028 is expected to start at a modest level and increase annually. Ørsted · Promise · 13 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
“In 2025, we directed around $427 million to high-impact programs and organizations. This represents an increase of 8% in funds directed compared to 2024.”
GiveWell 31 August 2026 GiveWell's 2025 Metrics and Impact (The GiveWell Blog)
In 2025 GiveWell directed around $427 million to high-impact programs and organizations, an 8% increase in funds directed compared to 2024.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
What would count as true or false
Two parts: about $427M directed in 2025, and an 8% increase over 2024. True: GiveWell's metrics report shows funds directed in 2025 within roughly ±2% of $427M, and growth over 2024 of about 7–9%. Mostly true: one figure is slightly off (for example the growth rounds to 6% or 10%, or the total is within ±5%). Mixed: one part holds and the other is materially wrong. Mostly false: both figures are materially off but there was an increase. False: funds directed were far from $427M and did not increase. Note that 'directed' follows GiveWell's own definition, so the reported figures themselves must be checked against the claim, not only GiveWell's summary of them.
Evidence
- Metrics Report 2025 - files.givewell.org GiveWell Own record
“We also directed more funding to cost-effective organizations and programs: $427 million in 2025 compared to $397 million in 2024.”
- Metrics Report 2025 - files.givewell.org GiveWell Own record
“This funds directed total includes both GiveWell grantmaking and donations made to our Top Charities on the basis of our recommendation.”
- Metrics 2024 - files.givewell.org GiveWell Own record
“We also directed substantially more funding to cost-effective organizations and programs: around $397 million in 2024 compared to around $197 million in 2023.”
Reasoning
GiveWell's 2025 metrics report gives funds directed of $427,260,130 in 2025 against $396,969,264 in 2024 [E1]. That is growth of about 7.6%, which rounds to the claimed 8% and falls within the 7–9% band. The separately published 2024 report confirms the roughly $397 million base [E3], and the stated definition of funds directed matches the claim's usage [E2]. The resolution criteria name GiveWell's metrics report as the reference source, and both reported figures fit the claim.
Cite this claim
GiveWell, “In 2025 GiveWell directed around $427 million to high-impact programs and organizations, an 8% increase in funds directed compared to 2024.” (said 31 August 2026). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_91c06b2e7254, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_91c06b2e7254
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.